Palgrave Studies in European Union Politics

Transcription

1 Palgrave Studies in European Union Politics Series Editor Michelle Egan American University Washington, DC USA Neill Nugent Emeritus Professor of Politics Manchester Metropolitan University Manchester, UK William E. Paterson Aston University Birmingham, UK

2 Following on the sustained success of the acclaimed European Union Series, which essentially publishes research-based textbooks, Palgrave Studies in European Union Politics publishes cutting edge research-driven monographs. The remit of the series is broadly defined, both in terms of subject and academic discipline. All topics of significance concerning the nature and operation of the European Union potentially fall within the scope of the series. The series is multidisciplinary to reflect the growing importance of the EU as a political, economic and social phenomenon. More information about this series at

3 Julie Hassing Nielsen Mark N. Franklin Editors The Eurosceptic 2014 European Parliament Elections Second Order or Second Rate?

4 Editors Julie Hassing Nielsen University of Copenhagen Copenhagen, Denmark Mark N. Franklin European University Institute Florence, Italy Palgrave Studies in European Union Politics ISBN ISBN (ebook) DOI / Library of Congress Control Number: The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2017 The author(s) has/have asserted their right(s) to be identified as the author(s) of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. Cover illustration: Niday Picture Library / Alamy Stock Photo Printed on acid-free paper This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by Springer Nature The registered company is Macmillan Publishers Ltd. The registered company address is: The Campus, 4 Crinan Street, London, N1 9XW, United Kingdom

5 Acknowledgments This book is the product of our collective work. We owe several people our gratitude. Most importantly, Ben Rosamond from Centre for European Politics, Department of Political Science, at the University of Copenhagen, who generously sponsored the workshop in Copenhagen in January 2016 through the Eurochallenge project. This workshop provided us with very stimulating and interesting discussions, essential to the overall quality of the content of the book. We are very grateful to Ben for this financial assistance. We also wish to highlight our editor Ambra Finotello for providing encouragement at an early stage and with help throughout the different stages of its production. Mark N. Franklin would like to thank members of the European Parliament Election Studies community, especially Hermann Schmitt, Cees van der Eijk and Michael Marsh, for years of fruitful discussion. Similar thanks are owed to Till Weber. Finally, we wish to thank our generous families for supporting us during the journey. Writing a book is never costless, and we appreciate their patience and understanding through the periods in which this book occupied our thoughts and time. v

6 Notes on Editors and Contributors Book Editors Mark N. Franklin is professor emeritus of international politics at Trinity College Connecticut, having previously taught for 20 years at the University of Strathclyde, Scotland, and for 10 years at the University of Houston, Texas. As a retirement position, he was the inaugural holder of the Stein Rokkan Chair of Comparative Politics at the European University Institute in Florence for five years, after which he held a visiting position at MIT. He is now thoroughly retired, but still fully engaged in political science research. Julie Hassing Nielsen is assistant professor at the University of Copenhagen, Department of Political Science, and European chief adviser for the Think Tank Kraka. She obtained her PhD from the European University Institute. Her research interests include European integration, euroscepticism, political psychology and political behavior. Her most recent work is found in Journal of Common Market Studies, Scandinavian Political Studies and Comparative European Politics. Contributors Rachid Azrout is a researcher of Political Communication at the Department of Communication Science at the University of Amsterdam. His research focuses on public opinion and media effects, with a special interest in minority issues and the European Union. Nathalie Brack is FNRS Researcher at the Cevipol, Université libre de Bruxelles, and visiting professor at the College of Europe (Bruges). She holds a PhD in political science from the ULB, which received the prize of best PhD thesis from vii

7 viii Notes on Editors and Contributors the Belgian Political Science Association ( ). Her research interests include euroscepticism, EU institutions, radical right, political opposition and parliamentary studies. She recently coedited a special issue of the International Political Science Review on the mainstreaming of Euroscepticism (with N. Startin, 2015) as well as the book How the EU Really Works, Routledge, 2014 (with O. Costa). Pedro C. Magalhães (PhD, Political Science, Ohio State University) is a Research Fellow at the Institute of Social Sciences of the University of Lisbon. He does research on public opinion and voting behavior, and has published in journals such as the American Journal of Political Science, European Journal of Political Research, Electoral Studies, Public Choice and others. His most recent book publications are Voting in Old and New Democracies (Routledge, coedited) and Financial Crisis, Austerity, and Electoral Politics: European Voter Responses to the Global Economic Collapse (Taylor & Francis, editor). Marco Morini is a Senior Research Fellow in Political Science at the University of Padova (Italy). His main research interests are political communication, populism and U.S. Politics. He has previously been assistant professor in Political Science at the International University of Sarajevo (Bosnia and Herzegovina) and Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Sociology at Macquarie University (Australia). He is the author of Forms of Political Transnationalism: The External Voting of the Italians in Sydney (Booktango, 2013) and of Mirroring Horse races. Political commercials, pollsters and political consultants: the Americanization of Italian election campaigns (Comunicazione Politica 2, 2015). Stefanie Reher is a Max Weber Fellow at the European University Institute in Florence. She holds a DPhil in Sociology from the University of Oxford (Nuffield College). Her research links the fields of policy representation and political behavior. She studies both what factors influence the quality of representation, including institutions and civil society, and how preference congruence between citizens and elites affects citizens political attitudes and behavior. Her work has been published in the European Journal of Political Research, Electoral Studies, and the Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties. Emmanuelle Reungoat holds a PhD in political science from the University Paris 1 Sorbonne. She is currently an assistant professor at the University of Montpellier in France and researcher at the CEPEL. Her research interests include the development and evolutions of oppositions to the European Union and the analysis of the various impacts of European integration on nation states, especially on political parties and party systems. She has recently published Mobilizing Europe in national competition: The case of the French Front national, International Political Science Review, June 2015, Vol. 36, no. 3, Most of her publications can be found at:

8 Notes on Editors and Contributors ix Dragomir Stoyanov is a PhD candidate at Sofia University. His research focuses on political parties, elections, and democratization with a special emphasis on Central and Eastern European politics. His work on Bulgarian politics has appeared in East European Politics, East European Quarterly, an edited volume published by Palgrave MacMillan and in briefing papers by the Sussex European Institute and the institute for European Politics in Berlin. He holds an M.A. in European Political and Administrative studies from the College of Europe and an M.A. in Political Science from Sofia University. Catharina Sørensen is head of research at the Danish Think Tank EUROPA. She holds a PhD in political science from the University of Copenhagen (2007). Her academic focus is on the dynamics of public opinion toward the European integration process. She specializes in the study of euroscepticism, including scepticism types, patterns and developments. Between 2009 and 2014, she worked as a civil servant in Copenhagen and Brussels. Sofia Vasilopoulou is a lecturer in the Department of Politics at the University of York, United Kingdom. Her work examines the theme of political dissatisfaction with democracy and democratic institutions across Europe. Topics include euroscepticism, the far right, and the EU s democratic legitimacy. Her work appears in the European Journal of Political Research, Journal of Common Market Studies, Journal of European Public Policy, Government and Opposition, Nations and Nationalism, South European Society and Politics, among others. She has been awarded support from the ESRC Future Leaders Grant for a project entitled Euroscepticism: dimensions, causes and consequences in times of crisis ( ).

9 Contents 1 The 2014 European Parliament Elections: Still Second Order? 1 Julie Hassing Nielsen, Mark N. Franklin 2 The 2014 EP Election and French Oppositions to the EU Since 1979: Evolution and Influence 17 Emmanuelle Reungoat 3 German Euroscepticism: Alternative für Deutschland in Stefanie Reher 4 British Eurosceptic Voting in 2014: Anti-EU or Anti-Government? 57 Sofia Vasilopoulou 5 The Italian 2014 EP Election: A Route to Euroscepticism? 83 Marco Morini 6 Central and East European Euroscepticism in 2014: Domestic Politics Matter! 103 Dragomir Stoyanov xi

10 xii CONTENTS 7 Nordic Eurosceptic Voting in 2014: Denmark, Norway, and Sweden 125 Catharina Sørensen 8 Netherlands 2014 EP Voting Patterns: From Euphile to Eurosceptic 149 Claes de Vreese, Rachid Azrout, Judith Moeller 9 Euroscepticism in Belgium: Issue-Voting Against the Odds 171 Nathalie Brack, Louise Hoon 10 Bailout Countries and Others in 2014: Austerity and Government Defection 197 Pedro C. Magalhães 11 EP Elections as Stepping-Stones to Eurosceptic Party Success 223 Mark N. Franklin 12 Conclusions: The 2014 EP Elections as a Lens on Euroscepticism 239 Mark N. Franklin, Julie Hassing Nielsen Index 255

11 List of Figures Fig. 1.1 Evolution of scepticism toward the euro, Eurozone countries (percent) 12 Fig. 2.1 Party discourses on Europe for each party, in % of Euromanifestos 20 Fig. 2.2 Electoral result of the main parties opposed to the EU at the EP election, in % of votes 26 Fig. 2.3 Number of seats obtained at the EP election by anti-eu parties in France from 1979 to Fig. 3.1 Results of the 2009 and 2014 EP elections in Germany 38 Fig. 3.2 Euroscepticism in Germany, Fig. 3.3 Attitudes among AfD voters and voters for other parties 44 Fig. 4.1 EP electoral results in the UK Fig. 4.2 British and EU-wide support for membership of the EU, Fig. 4.3 Image of the EU, UK and EU-wide average compared, Fig. 4.4 EP elections turnout, UK and EU-wide average compared, Fig. 4.5 Degree of party dissent on European integration 64 Fig. 4.6 Relative salience of European integration in the party s public stance 65 Fig. 4.7 UK party positions on European integration ( ) 70 Fig. 5.1 Trust in the EU in Italy, (percent). European Commission, Eurobarometer Fig. 5.2 Support for Italy s membership of the European Community, (percent) 88 xiii

12 xiv LIST OF FIGURES Fig. 5.3 Italy could better face the future outside the EU? (percent) 89 Fig. 5.4 Trust in the EU and the unemployment rate in Italy ( ) 90 Fig. 5.5 Trust in the EU and unemployment rate in Italy, (percent) 91 Fig. 5.6 NL electoral results, (percent) 97 Fig. 8.1 Comparing Dutch to EU-wide euroscepticism, Fig. 8.2 CFA model of the dimensional structure of EU attitudes 159 Fig. 8.3 Mean scores over time of each dimension, on a scale from 0 to 1 with higher values indicating more pro-european attitudes 161 Fig Changes in the cyclically adjusted structural balance in EU countries, (annual average) 206 Fig Marginal effects of left right distance on the probabilities of switching and abstaining in EP 2014 elections for previous government party voters, conditional upon level of austerity effort 209 Fig Marginal effects of EU distance on the probabilities of switching and abstaining in the 2014 EP elections for previous government party voters, conditional upon level of austerity effect 210 Fig Marginal effects of government approval on the probabilities of switching and abstaining in the EP 2014 elections for previous government party voters, conditional upon level of austerity effect 211 Fig Marginal effects of EU distance, left right distance, and government approval on different types of party witching, contingent upon levels of austerity 215 Fig Principal quantities of interest over the electoral cycle (stylized picture, not to scale) 227 Fig Proportions switching to and from eurosceptic party support over the electoral cycle 230 Fig Actual proportions in different categories identified in Fig Fig Simulated consequences of full turnout of new voters at an EP election 233 Fig Extent of support for eurosceptic parties in the bailout countries, by preference for European integration 241

13 List of Tables Table 1.1 Eurosceptic parties winning representation in the EP, 2014, and number of seats won 4 Table EP election results in France 25 Table 2.2 EP election results: for each party, the % of votes appears in the left column and the number of seats in the right column 26 Table 3.1 Predictors of AfD support vs. any other party 49 Table 3.2 Predictors of AfD support vs. each of the other parties 52 Table 4.1 Main reasons of deciding to vote in the 2014 EP elections 71 Table 4.2 Predictors of UKIP support versus any other party in the UK 2014 EP elections 73 Table 4.3 Vote choice in the UK 2014 EP elections 75 Table 5.1 Results of the 2014 EP elections in Italy 92 Table 6.1 Approval of EU membership (percentages) 108 Table 6.2 Trust in European and national institutions 110 Table 6.3 Turnout by country: European elections (percent) 113 Table 6.4 EP 2014 elections results in Visegrád countries 116 Table 6.5 EP 2014 elections results in Baltic countries 117 Table 6.6 EP 2014 elections results in South-East European countries 119 Table 7.1 Nordic European Parliament elections results, 2009 and Table 7.2 Types of euroscepticism 132 Table 7.3 Indicators and results (per cent) 133 Table 7.4 Nordic public euroscepticism 137 Table 7.5 Nordic party-based euroscepticism 143 Table 8.1 EP election results per party, 2009 and 2014 (percent) 151 xv

14 xvi LIST OF TABLES Table 8.2 Question wording for each of the dimensions of EU attitudes 157 Table 8.3 Model fit indices of confirmatory factor analyses in each wave with five dimensions 157 Table 8.4 Scaling statistics for each dimension in each wave 160 Table 8.5 Differences between April 2009 and December Table 8.6 Predictive power of EU attitudes on vote choice 163 Table 8.8 Estimated vote share (%) depending on dimensions of EU attitudes 164 Table 8.7 Logistic regression predicting voting in the EP elections for PVV, D66, PvdA and VVD 167 Table 9.1 Election outcomes for the EP elections of 2009 and Table 9.2 Binary logistic regression for eurosceptic vote in the EP election 183 Table 9.3 Summary model: binary logistic regression for casting a eurosceptic vote in the regional, federal and European elections 185 Table 9.4 Binary logistic regression for casting a Eurosceptic vote in Table 9.5 the regional elections 188 Binary logistic regression for casting a Eurosceptic vote in the federal elections 189 Table 9.6 Frequency table: gender 191 Table 9.7 Frequency table: occupational status 191 Table 9.8 Frequency table: education 191 Table 9.9 Cronbach s alpha for sum scales: European citizenship, positive attitudes toward immigration and trust in national political institutions 192 Table 10.1 Multilevel models showing marginal effects of switching and abstaining in the 2014 EP elections (standard error within parentheses) 208 Table 10.2 Multilevel models of switching to opposition parties in the 2014 EP elections (standard error in parenthesis) 213 Table 10.3 Parties in government at the time of the 2014 European Parliament elections 218 Table 12.1 Responsibility of EU or national government for economy and immigration, by integration gone too far 245