Television Series Transcript Latin America

Transcription

1 Television Series Transcript Latin America >> "GREAT DECISIONS 2004" IS PRODUCED BY THE FOREIGN POLICY ASSOCIATION AND THE STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK NEIL D. LEVIN GRADUATE INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AND COMMERCE. FUNDING FOR "GREAT DECISIONS 2004" IS PROVIDED BY THE STARR FOUNDATION AND THE WILLIAM & KAREN TELL FOUNDATION. >> WELCOME TO "GREAT DECISIONS 2004," I'M RALPH BEGLEITER. IT WAS THE EVENING OF SEPTEMBER 6, 2001, A TRIUMPHANT EVENING AT THE WHITE HOUSE. THE TOAST WAS TO AN ERA OF PROSPERITY IN A HEMISPHERE OF LIBERTY. GEORGE BUSH INTENDED TO IMPROVE TIES WITH AMERICA'S SOUTHERN NEIGHBORS. THE AMERICAN PRESIDENT WAS HOSTING VICENTE FOX, THE FIRST MEXICAN PRESIDENT TO BREAK THE GRIP OF HIS COUNTRY'S ONE-PARTY POLITICS. HE WAS A SYMBOL OF A CHANGING LATIN AMERICA --DEMOCRATIC, INCREASINGLY CAPITALIST, AND PRO-AMERICAN. FIVE DAYS LATER, AMERICA AWOKE TO THE TRAGEDY OF SEPTEMBER 11th, AND LATIN AMERICA BECAME AN AFTERTHOUGHT. TODAY ON "GREAT DECISIONS 2004," "LATIN AMERICA: THE PRICE OF NEGLECT." >> Begleiter: IT USED TO BE EASY TO TELL WHEN LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES WERE IN TROUBLE -- MILITARY DICTATORS OR COMMUNIST REBELS TOOK POWER, OPPONENTS MYSTERIOUSLY DISAPPEARED, AND BADLY RUN ECONOMIES FAILED IN THE FACE OF HYPERINFLATION AND CORRUPTION. >> [ SPEAKING SPANISH ] >> Begleiter: TODAY, AN AGING FIDEL CASTRO CLINGS TO THE IDEALS OF COMMUNISM, AS DATED AS CUBA'S VINTAGE AUTOMOBILES. IN ALMOST EVERY OTHER LATIN COUNTRY, DEMOCRACY HAS REPLACED MILITARY JUNTAS AND ARISTOCRATIC OLIGARCHIES. COCA PRODUCTION AND DRUGTRAFFICKING HAVE DECLINED, AND INEFFICIENT STATE ECONOMIES HAVE BEEN TRADED FOR MARKET- DRIVEN ONES. WHY THEN ARE THE POT-BANGERS, PROTESTERS, OUT IN NATION AFTER NATION? WHY HAVE FOUR DEMOCRATICALLY ELECTED PRESIDENTS BEEN DRIVEN FROM OFFICE IN THE PAST SIX YEARS? MOST ANALYSTS ATTRIBUTE THIS BROAD DISCONTENT TO FRUSTRATION THAT DEMOCRACY HAS NOT DELIVERED POWER TO THE POWERLESS, THAT ECONOMIC REFORMS HAVE NOT BROUGHT PROSPERITY TO

2 THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PEOPLE, THAT INCOME FROM DRUGS HAS NOT BEEN REPLACED BY INCOME FROM OTHER CROPS, AND THAT THE YAWNING GAP BETWEEN RICH AND POOR HAS WIDENED. THE UNITED STATES IS VIEWED BY ITS NEIGHBORS AS STANDING ASIDE, AT BEST, STANDING IN THE WAY, AT WORST. [ GUNSHOTS ] IN BOLIVIA, PRESIDENT GONZALO SANCHEZ DE LOZADA WAS DRIVEN FROM OFFICE BY PEASANTS WHOSE DESPERATE POVERTY IS THE RESULT, IN PART, OF AMERICAN ANTI-DRUG POLICIES, WHICH OFFER NO REPLACEMENT SOURCE OF INCOME FOR TENS OF THOUSANDS OF COCA FARMERS. IN COLOMBIA, COCAINE PRODUCTION STILL FUELS A DECADES-LONG CIVIL WAR. BILLIONS IN U.S. ANTI-DRUG AID HAVE DRIVEN DESPERATE FARMERS TO OTHER BUSINESSES. COLOMBIA NOW LEADS THE WORLD IN KIDNAPPINGS. IN BRAZIL, LUIS IGNACIO "LULA" DA SILVA ROSE FROM THE SLUMS TO LEAD THE REGION'S LARGEST ECONOMY AND CONFRONTED POVERTY SO STARK THAT HIS FIRST PROGRAM AIMED TO ELIMINATE HUNGER. BRAZIL HAS JOINED FORCES WITH THE CONTINENT'S OTHER ECONOMIC POWER, ARGENTINA, AGAINST THE TRADE AND LENDING POLICIES OF THE UNITED STATES AND EUROPE. THOSE POLICIES HAVE PROMPTED DAILY PROTESTS BY PEOPLE WHOSE JOBS AND SAVINGS HAVE BEEN DESTROYED, EVEN THOUGH ARGENTINA ADOPTED THE INTERNATIONAL BANKERS' RECOMMENDATIONS. FINALLY, BACK IN MEXICO, VICENTE FOX FACES INCREASED OPPOSITION AMID THE APPARENT FAILURE OF HIS SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP WITH PRESIDENT BUSH. INSTEAD OF THE REGULATED GUEST WORKER PROGRAM FOX HOPED TO ACHIEVE, THE U.S. HAS SLAMMED THE BORDER SHUT IN THE NAME OF POST-9/11 SECURITY. WHY SHOULD AMERICANS CARE ABOUT LATIN AMERICA'S CRISIS? THREE OF THE U.S.'s FOUR BIGGEST OIL SUPPLIERS ARE IN LATIN AMERICA. THE U.S. SELLS MORE GOODS TO SOUTH AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN THAN TO ALL OF EUROPE. AND NO OTHER COUNTRIES HAVE MORE IMPACT ON AMERICAN IMMIGRATION, ILLEGAL DRUGS, AND THE ENVIRONMENT. JOINING ME TO EXPLORE THESE DIFFICULT ISSUES ARE BERNARD ARONSON, MANAGING PARTNER OF ACON INVESTMENTS, A PRIVATE EQUITY AND VENTURE CAPITAL COMPANY BASED IN WASHINGTON. MR. ARONSON SERVED AS ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF STATE FOR INTER-AMERICAN AFFAIRS FROM 1989 TO 1993, DURING THE GEORGE BUSH, SENIOR, ADMINISTRATION. AND JOY OLSON, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF THE WASHINGTON OFFICE ON LATIN AMERICA, AN ADVOCACY ORGANIZATION PROMOTING HUMAN RIGHTS,

3 DEMOCRACY, AND SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC JUSTICE. MS. OLSON HAS RECENTLY RETURNED FROM CHILE, ARGENTINA, AND MEXICO. LET ME ASK YOU BOTH, THE EFFECT OF 9/11, PUTTING LATIN AMERICA ON THE BACK BURNER, SOME SAY OFF THE STOVE ENTIRELY -- WHY HAS THAT HAPPENED, AND WHAT'S BEEN THE EFFECT IN LATIN AMERICA? JOY? >> WELL, I THINK THERE WAS A LOT OF OPTIMISM, THERE WAS A LOT OF HOPE AROUND THOSE INITIAL MEETINGS BETWEEN BUSH AND FOX AROUND IMMIGRATION ISSUES, THAT THERE WAS A CHANGING DYNAMIC TAKING PLACE. THAT LATIN AMERICA IN GENERAL WAS GOING TO RISE IN TERMS OF THE LEVEL OF PRIORITIZATION FOR THE UNITED STATES. AFTER 9/11, THAT, IT JUST SHUTDOWN, THOSE TALKS SHUT DOWN, ANY PROGRESS THERE SHUT DOWN. LATIN AMERICA IS NOT A FOCAL POINT IN THE WAR ON TERRORISM. SOME PEOPLE HAVE TRIED TO MAKE IT SUCH BY DESCRIBING THE DRUG PROBLEM OR NARCOTICS TRAFFICKERS AS "NARCO-TERRORISTS," BUT FUNDAMENTALLY, THEY'RE, WHEN SPECIALISTS TALK ABOUT TERRORISM ISSUES WITHIN LATIN AMERICA, THEY TEND TO TALK ABOUT ONE SMALL AREA CALLED THE TRI-BORDER REGION, BETWEEN ARGENTINA, PARAGUAY, AND BRAZIL, AND THEN WHAT'S TALKED ABOUT IS MORE MONEY-LAUNDERING ISSUES THAT COULD FEED INTO TERRORISM. BUT IT'S JUST NOT THE FOCUS IN THE ANTI-TERRORISM EFFORT THAT OTHER REGIONS OF THE WORLD ARE. SO RESOURCES, ATTENTION HAVE BEEN DEDICATED TO OTHER AREAS. >> Begleiter: AND THOSE KINDS OF FOCUSES, ON TERRORISM, FOR EXAMPLE, DON'T NECESSARILY HELP THE ECONOMIES OF THE COUNTRIES THAT WE'VE JUST BEEN TALKING ABOUT. >> NO, THAT'S RIGHT, WHAT THEY TEND TO CONTRIBUTE TO IS GREATER MILITARY ASSISTANCE FROM THE UNITED STATES. >> BERNIE, IS THIS SHUT-DOWN OF ATTENTION TO LATIN AMERICA SOMETHING NEW? HAVE WE SEEN THIS BEFORE? >> UNFORTUNATELY, THAT'S THE PATTERN -- THE HISTORIC MISTAKE THE UNITED STATES MAKES TOWARDS LATIN AMERICA IS IT DOESN'T PAY ATTENTION WHEN THERE ARE PROBLEMS, AND THEN THE PROBLEMS FESTER AND GROW WORSE AND BECOME CRISES, AND THEN THE UNITED STATES TURNS ITS ATTENTION TO THE REGION. BUT OFTENTIMES, WHEN IT FINALLY REALIZES IT HAS A PROBLEM, THE CHOICES AND THE OPTIONS AND THE TOOLS AVAILABLE TO THE UNITED STATES ARE NOT VERY ATTRACTIVE, AND THEY'RE VERY NARROW, AND SO IT'S A CONSTANT STRUGGLE TO GET SENIOR POLICYMAKERS TO TREAT THE REGION WITH THE

4 IMPORTANCE THAT IT MERITS. >> Begleiter: DO YOU THINK WE'RE IN A SITUATION NOW WHERE THOSE PROBLEMS ARE FESTERING TO PERHAPS ANOTHER CRISIS POINT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY DRIVE ATTENTION BACK TOWARD LATIN AMERICA? >> WELL, I THINK THAT THE REGION HAS REAL PROBLEMS -- I THINK THE UNITED STATES HAS NOT BEEN AS ENGAGED AS IT SHOULD BE, AND I DON'T WANT TO BE APOCALYPTIC -- I THINK THAT THE ECONOMIC CRISES THAT WE SAW IN THE LATE '80s, THE DEBT CRISIS, HAVE BEEN OVERCOME TO SOME EXTENT. TODAY, ARGENTINA HAS LINGERING DEBT PROBLEMS, BUT MANY COUNTRIES HAVE WORKED THOSE ISSUES OUT. THE GUERILLA WARS HAVE LARGELY SUBSIDED, EXCEPT FOR COLOMBIA AND A LITTLE BIT IN PERU. BUT THE REGION IS IN TROUBLE, DEMOCRACY IS VERY FRAGILE, AND I THINK THERE IS A SENSE THAT THE UNITED STATES DOES NOT HAVE A LARGER IDEA ABOUT THE REGION, A LARGER GOAL, AND IS NOT ENGAGED IN A SERIOUS WAY ON A DAY-TO-DAY BASIS WITH THE LEADERS OF THE REGION. AND I THINK WHEN THAT HAPPENS, THE CENTRIPETAL FORCES THAT DIVIDE THE REGION AND CAUSE DISINTEGRATION ACCELERATE. >> Begleiter: PROSPERITY REALLY HASN'T MATERIALIZED IN THE REGION IN THE SAME WAY THAT IT WAS PREDICTED IN THE LATE '80s AND PARTICULARLY THE EARLY '90s, I GUESS, AS EVERYBODY THOUGHT, "OH, THE REGION'S GOING TO EMERGE AND SUDDENLY BECOME A VERY PROSPEROUS PLACE." WHY HASN'T PROSPERITY DEVELOPED IN THE REGION, JOY? >> WELL, THE POVERTY RATE IS STILL, WITHIN LATIN AMERICA, IS ABOUT 43%. ANALYSTS CALLED THE 19-- >> Begleiter: WHAT DO YOU MEAN BY THAT, 43% ARE BELOW THE POVERTY LINE? >> YES, YES -- UM, UH... ANALYSTS CALLED THE 1980s "THE LOST DECADE," AND THEY'RE STARTING TO CALL THE 1990s ANOTHER LOST DECADE. THERE JUST -- WHILE THERE WAS A POTENTIAL FOR ECONOMIC INCREASE, IT JUST, IT DIDN'T MANIFEST ITSELF, AND IT DIDN'T TRICKLE DOWN WITHIN LATIN AMERICA. SO YOU SEE THE POVERTY RATES, OVER A DECADE, NOT CHANGING. >> NOT FOR A LACK OF TRYING, THOUGH -- THE UNITED STATES AND THE IMF AND OTHER INSTITUTIONS HAVE TRIED TO GET THE ECONOMIC ENGINES MOVING IN LATIN AMERICA. WHY HASN'T THAT HAD TRACTION? >> Aronson: I THINK IT'S MPORTANT NOT TO PAINT WITH TOO BROAD A BRUSH.IN THE FIRST CASE, IN THE LATE '80s AND EARLY '90s, COUNTRIES LIKE ARGENTINA, BRAZIL, PERU, AND EARLIER, BOLIVIA, WERE SUFFERING INFLATION RATES IN THE THOUSANDS OR THE TENS OF THOUSANDS. THAT DEVASTATED POOR PEOPLE, PARTICULARLY, AND THAT HYPERINFLATION HAS LARGELY BEEN CONTAINED BY

5 STABILIZATION PROGRAMS THAT WERE ADVOCATED BY THE UNITED STATES AND THAT WERE SUCCESSFUL, AND THE BIGGEST VICTIMS OF THAT HYPERINFLATION WERE POOR PEOPLE, SO THE NOTION THAT THERE'S BEEN NO PROGRESS IS NOT CORRECT. SECONDLY, A COUNTRY LIKE CHILE IS A COUNTRY THAT HAS TAKEN A REAL PASSAGE FROM AN UNDERDEVELOPED COUNTRY TO A DEVELOPING COUNTRY, MUCH LIKE PORTUGAL AND SPAIN DID IN EUROPE IN PREVIOUS DECADES. CHILE IS A COUNTRY THAT HAS REDUCED POVERTY, HAS REDUCED UNEMPLOYMENT, HAS RAISED PER CAPITA INCOME, AND IT'S DONE SO, IN FACT, BY DEEPENING AND FOLLOWING THE REFORMS UNDER SUCCESSIVE GOVERNMENTS. SO I THINK IT'S A MYTH THAT THE POLICIES FAILED -- I WOULD ARGUE SOMETHING OPPOSITE, WHICH IS, THE POLICIES WERE TRIED IN THE INITIAL PHASE, IN THE EASY PHASE POLITICALLY, THEY SUCCEEDED IN CURBING HYPERINFLATION, BUT THE NEXT STAGE OF THE REFORMS ARE MUCH, MUCH MORE DIFFICULT, OFTENTIMES DEAL WITH ENTRENCHED INTEREST IN THESE COUNTRIES, THEY REQUIRE TOUGH POLITICAL CHOICES, AND THEY WERE NOT CARRIED OUT IN THE SECOND STAGE IN MANY COUNTRIES. AND AS A RESULT, THERE HASN'T BEEN THE KIND OF GROWTH, AND IT CERTAINLY HASN'T INVOLVED THE LOWER CLASSES THE WAY IT NEEDS TO, TO DEAL WITH POVERTY. >> I WANT TO TAKE A LISTEN FOR MOMENT TO A COUPLE OF LEADERS WHO FOCUS ON LATIN AMERICAN AFFAIRS, TO KIND OF ILLUSTRATE WHAT I THINK IS A PROBLEM IN POLICY TOWARD THE REGION. LEADERS FROM THE REGION LOOK TO THE UNITED STATES FOR ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL ASSISTANCE, ESSENTIALLY. THE UNITED STATES LOOKS TO LATIN AMERICA ESSENTIALLY IN TERMS OF DRUGS. LET'S LISTEN FOR A MOMENT. >> [ SPEAKING SPANISH ] >> Interpreter: TO YOU, I ASK THAT YOU COME TO THE AID OF ECUADOR AND OTHER LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES, WITH THAT MOST POWERFUL WEAPON THAT YOU POSSESS, KNOWLEDGE, AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT OUR ECONOMIC, POLITICAL, SOCIAL, AND CULTURAL REALITIES, SPRING FORTH THE MOST VIABLE ROAD FOR OUR ECONOMIES TO PROGRESS AND BRING WELL-BEING TO OUR PEOPLE. >> WE REALIZE THAT THE NARCO-TRAFFICKING ATTACKS AGAINST THE PEOPLE OF COLOMBIA ARE A THREAT TO ALL OF US, TO OUR HUMAN AND DEMOCRATIC VALUES, AND TO OUR SHARED INTEREST IN A SECURE AND PROSPEROUS HEMISPHERE. COLOMBIA DESERVES OUR STEADFAST SOLIDARITY AND OUR FULL SUPPORT. >> IS THAT A FAIR CHARACTERIZATION, TO SAY THAT THE UNITED STATES TENDS TO VIEW LATIN AMERICA IN TERMS OF DRUG POLICY AND EXPECT, HAVING DRUG

6 EXPECTATIONS FROM LATIN AMERICA, WHEREAS LATIN LEADERS TEND TO LOOK TO THE UNITED STATES FOR ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL ASSISTANCE, BERNIE? >> I DON'T THINK THAT'S ENTIRELY ACCURATE -- IF YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT COLOMBIA, WHICH SECRETARY OF STATE POWELL WAS REFERRING TO, THERE'S NO QUESTION THAT OUR DOMESTIC CONCERNS ABOUT NARCOTICS HAS FUELED OUR INTEREST IN COLOMBIA -- IT'S THE LARGEST EXPORTER OF COCAINE, AND NOW HEROIN, TO THE UNITED STATES. BUT MOST OF THE COUNTRIES IN THE REGION ARE NOT DRUG-PRODUCING OR DRUG-TRANSITING COUNTRIES, AND I THINK THE UNITED STATES HAS BEEN INVOLVED WITH THEM ON TRADE, ON DEMOCRATIZATION, ON MANY OTHER ISSUES, SO I THINK THAT'S KIND OF A MISNOMER. ON THE OTHER HAND, IT'S A SYMPTOM OF THE PROBLEM, WHICH IS, IF COLOMBIA DIDN'T HAVE NARCOTICS, WE PROBABLY WOULD NOT BE PAYING ATTENTION TO COLOMBIA, WHICH IS PART OF THE PROBLEM VIS-A-VIS LATIN AMERICA AND THE UNITED STATES, WHICH IS, WE DON'T HAVE A DOMESTIC CONSTITUENCY AND A TRADITION OF PAYING ATTENTION TO THE REGION. >> Begleiter: JOY, YOU FOCUS A LOT ON MILITARY ASSISTANCE TO THE REGION -- IN TERMS OF MILITARY ASSISTANCE, WOULD IT BE FAIR TO SAY MOST OF THE MONEY GOES TO AREAS WHERE CONTROLLING DRUGS SEEMS TO BE THE TARGET ISSUE? >> OH, DEFINITELY, BUT YOU ALSO SEE ANOTHER DISTURBING TREND IN THE PAST FEW YEARS, WHICH IS THAT ECONOMIC AID TO LATIN AMERICA IS ABOUT EQUAL NOW TO MILITARY ASSISTANCE TO THE REGION. AND THIS IS A REGION WHERE WE JUST SAID THERE ISN'T THE TERRORIST THREAT THAT THE U.S. HAS WITH OTHER PARTS OF THE WORLD. EVEN BACK DURING THE COLD WAR, WHEN THE U.S. WAS GIVING A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF MILITARY AID TO CENTRAL AMERICAN GOVERNMENTS, ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE WAS ALWAYS ABOUT DOUBLE WHAT MILITARY AID WAS, SO YOU DO SEE A REAL SHIFT IN THE WAY THE U.S. IS RELATING TO THE REGION THAT WAY. I WOULD ALSO SAY THAT THERE'S A REAL DISCONNECT BETWEEN PROBLEMS IN LATIN AMERICA AS THEY'RE PERCEIVED FROM THE UNITED STATES AND PROBLEMS AS THEY'RE VIEWED FROM WITHIN THE REGION. WITHIN THE REGION, GOVERNMENTS AND CITIZENS ARE DEALING WITH THIS INCREDIBLE POVERTY PROBLEM. A LACK OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT THAT BENEFITS THE POOR. THEY'RE ALSO DEALING A LOT WITH SECURITY PROBLEMS, BUT SECURITY IN TERMS OF CRIME. AND YOU HAVE THE U.S. TRYING TO VIEW THE HEMISPHERE THROUGH THE DRUG LENS, AND THEN THROUGH THE TERRORISM LENS AS WELL, SO YOU HAVE A REAL DISCONNECT IN TERMS OF HOW PROBLEMS ARE VIEWED. >> HOW EFFECTIVE HAVE THE NARCOTICS CONTROL EFFORTS BEEN OVER THE LAST 10, 15 YEARS OR SO, BERNIE?

7 >> YOU KNOW, IT'S A MIXED RECORD, BUT I THINK THERE'S A MYTH ABOUT OUR ABILITY TO DEAL WITH DRUGS BY GOING TO THE SOURCE -- NOBODY WHO IS SERIOUS ABOUT THE ISSUE BELIEVES YOU CAN DEAL WITH THE NARCOTICS PROBLEM UNLESS YOU REDUCE DEMAND IN THE UNITED STATES, AND UNLESS AND UNTIL WE DO THAT EFFECTIVELY -- AND THERE'S ACTUALLY BEEN SOME PROGRESS IN RECENT DECADES, BUT NOT ENOUGH -- YOU'RE NEVER GOING TO STOP IT AT THE SOURCE. HAVING SAID THAT, I THINK THAT THE WAR ON DRUGS IN LATIN AMERICA IS ALSO A WAR TO DEFEND DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS. IN COLOMBIA, THE TWO GROUPS THAT COMMIT MOST HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES, THAT COMMIT MOST VIOLENCE AND UNDERMINE DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS ARE, BOTH ON THE LEFT AND THE RIGHT, ARE SUPPORTED BY THE DRUG TRADE. SO I DON'T THINK YOU CAN JUST ISOLATE DRUGS FROM THESE OTHER ISSUES, WHETHER IT'S DEMOCRACY OR HUMAN RIGHTS. THEY TEND TO BE JOINED. HAVING SAID THAT, I THINK JOY IS CORRECT, THAT WE HAVE A VERY NARROW LENS FOR LOOKING AT THIS REGION, THE ISSUES OF POVERTY AND INEQUALITY OF INCOME AND LACK OF UPWARD MOBILITY, AND PERSONAL SECURITY, CRIME, THOSE ARE THE ISSUES THAT LATIN AMERICANS CARE ABOUT, AND WE HARDLY EVEN TALK ABOUT THEM. >> HOW DO YOU FEEL -- GO AHEAD. >> COULD I -- I'D JUST LIKE TO RESPOND -- I THINK THE U.S. DRUG WAR IN LATIN AMERICA HAS BEEN A FAILURE. WE'VE SPENT ABOUT $25 BILLION ON THE INTERNATIONAL ASPECT OF THIS WAR IN LATIN AMERICA IN ABOUT THE PAST 10 YEARS. AND YOU KNOW, WHAT YOU FIND IS THAT WE'RE SUCCESSFUL IN SOME AREAS -- IN PERU, FOR EXAMPLE -- WITH FORCED ERADICATION, OR FUMIGATION, AS WE'RE DOING RIGHT NOW IN COLOMBIA. AND WHAT YOU FIND IS THAT WHEN YOU'RE SUCCESSFUL IN ONE AREA, IT POPS UP IN ANOTHER. AND AS BERNIE WAS SAYING, AS LONG AS THERE'S THIS INCREDIBLY, THIS INCREDIBLE PROFIT MOTIVE THAT'S DRIVEN BY CONSUMPTION IN THE UNITED STATES, YOU'RE GOING TO FIND THAT IF YOU CAN ERADICATE IT IN ONE PLACE, IT'S GOING TO COME UP SOMEWHERE ELSE, BECAUSE THE DEMAND IS THERE. >> MOVING THE PROBLEM FROM ONE PLACE TO ANOTHER, DOES IT ALSO SHIFT THE POLITICAL PROBLEM FROM ONE PLACE TO ANOTHER? >> DEFINITELY. DEFINITELY -- WHAT YOU SEE COMING ALONG WITH DRUG PRODUCTION IN ANY GIVEN COUNTRY IS ALSO TREMENDOUS PROBLEMS WITH CORRUPTION. AND ALL -- AND CRIME. AND WHAT LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES ARE FINDING MUCH MORE THAN THEY DID A DECADE AGO IS THAT THEY'RE HAVING TROUBLE WITH DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION, AS WELL.

8 >> WHAT ABOUT THIS WHOLE ISSUE OF FINDING ALTERNATIVE CROPS? HAS THE U.S. BEEN VERY SUCCESSFUL AT THAT OVER THE LAST 10, 15 YEARS? >> THERE ARE PLACES WHERE WE'VE DONE THAT, BUT AGAIN, AS YOU'VE MADE YOUR POINT ABOUT LACK OF ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE, WE TEND TO FIND THE ASSISTANCE FOR AREAS WHERE THERE'S A DOMESTIC, POLITICAL CONSTITUENCY IN OUR OWN COUNTRY, SUCH AS DRUGS. FOREIGN ASSISTANCE HAS GONE DOWN STEADILY OVER THE LAST 20 YEARS, THERE'S REALLY NONE LEFT IN A SERIOUS WAY, AND IT DOES MAKE IT MUCH HARDER POLITICALLY FOR A GOVERNMENT LIKE BOLIVIA TO ERADICATE COCA LEAF, WHICH IS A SOURCE OF INCOME FOR POOR PEOPLE, IF THEY'RE NOT PROVIDING ALTERNATIVES. THERE IS ASSISTANCE BOTH IN COLOMBIA AND IN BOLIVIA AND PERUTODAY FOR ALTERNATIVE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, BUT IT'S NOT ENOUGH, AND IT DOESN'T, OBVIOUSLY, FILL THE GAP. SO I THINK WE TEND TO HAVE A VERY MYOPIC VIEW OF THESE PROBLEMS. >> OUR PROGRAM IS WATCHED AND USED BY DISCUSSION GROUPS AROUND THE UNITED STATES TO DISCUSS THESE ISSUES. AND THE FOREIGN POLICY ASSOCIATION THAT PRODUCES THIS PROGRAM SPONSORS THOSE GREAT DISCUSSION GROUP PROGRAMS. IN FACT, THIS YEAR IS THE 50 th ANNIVERSARY OF THE COMMUNITY DISCUSSION GROUPS MEETING ALL ACROSS THE COUNTRY. WE HAD A CHANCE TO VISIT ONE OF THOSE RECENTLY, AND A MEMBER OF THE DISCUSSION GROUP ASKED A QUESTION I'D LIKE TO POSE TO YOU. >> HI, MY NAME IS BEN ALLEN. LATIN AMERICA HAS BEEN AN AREA OF INTEREST FOR THE UNITED STATES THROUGHOUT THE HISTORY OF THE UNITED STATES. IN THE 1800s, THE UNITED STATES SPELLED OUT THE MONROE DOCTRINE, WHICH SET FORTH WHAT UNITED STATES POLICY WAS IN THE REGION OF LATIN AMERICA IN TERMS OF KEEPING OUTSIDE INFLUENCES OUTSIDE OF LATIN AMERICA. DURING THE COLD WAR, THE UNITED STATES WAS INTERESTED IN CONTAINING COMMUNISM THROUGHOUT THE REGION. WHAT IS THE ROLE FOR THE UNITED STATES AND LATIN AMERICA IN THE 21st CENTURY? >> SO OUR QUESTIONER WANTS TO KNOW HOW THE U.S. DEFINES ITS ROLE VIS-A- VIS LATIN AMERICA --JOY? >> I THINK THE TWO PRINCIPAL ISSUES FOR THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE U.S. AND LATIN AMERICA UNDER THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION RIGHT NOW ARE TRADE AND DRUGS. THE U.S. HAS BEEN TRYING TO NEGOTIATE A HEMISPHERIC-WIDE TRADE RELATIONSHIP SINCE UNDER THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION. IT'S PROVEN TO BE QUITE DIFFICULT, I WOULD SAY IN PART BECAUSE OF THE REASON I MENTIONED EARLIER, OF A DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE PERCEPTION OF SOME OF THE PROBLEMS WITHIN THE REGION. SOME OF THE -- THERE ARE ALWAYS

9 WINNERS AND LOSERS IN TRADE NEGOTIATIONS, AND THE LOSERS UNDER THE CURRENT REGIME OF DISCUSSIONS TEND TO BE SMALL FARMERS AND SMALL PRODUCERS WHO ARE ON THE SORT OF POOR TO POVERTY END OF THE ECONOMIC SCALE. AND I WOULD SAY THAT WITH THE DRUG POLICY, AND WITH CERTAIN ASPECTS OF OTHER ECONOMIC POLICY, THE U.S. TENDS TO PURSUE A ONE-SIZE-FITS-ALL STRATEGY. AND WHAT IS NOT TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT THERE ARE THE LOCAL, DOMESTIC, POLITICAL DYNAMICS AND THE NEEDS OF CONSOLIDATING DEMOCRACY WITHIN COUNTRIES FACING SERIOUS, EITHER DRUG OR POVERTY, PROBLEMS. >> BERNIE, DO YOU AGREE IT'S TRADE AND DRUGS, NOT CONSOLIDATING DEMOCRACY OR ANYTHING? >> NO, I THINK THE DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACY IS IMPORTANT, TRADE IS CERTAINLY A PRIORITY, COUNTER-NARCOTICS, COUNTER-TERRORISM, BUT I, FRANKLY, AM NOT SURE THAT WE HAVE A CLEAR SET OF GOALS TOWARD THE REGION -- I THINK WE TEND TO BE REACTIVE MORE THAN STRATEGIC, AND I THINK THAT'S A PROBLEM. THE QUESTIONER TALKED ABOUT THE COLD WAR. IN THE COLD WAR, YOU HAD AN EAST-WEST DIVIDE WHICH WAS LARGELY OVERCOME AFTER A 50-YEAR STRUGGLE. TODAY, THERE'S A NORTH-SOUTH DIVIDE BETWEEN THE DEVELOPED NATIONS AND THE DEVELOPING NATIONS. AND THIS HEMISPHERE IS THE PLACE WHERE WE COULD BEGIN TO BRIDGE THAT GAP, IF WE WERE CREATIVE AND VISIONARY AND FIND A COMMON DENOMINATOR OF DEMOCRATIZATION AND MARKET ECONOMIES AND PROGRESSIVE POLICIES THAT WOULD HELP SHOW THAT NORTH AND SOUTH COULD COME TOGETHER. THAT'S CERTAINLY WHAT MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES ARE TRYING TO DO. BUT THAT TAKES REAL POLITICAL LEADERSHIP, NOT JUST IN THE UNITED STATES, BUT ALSO IN LATIN AMERICA, AND I'M NOT SURE WE'RE SEEING IT THESE DAYS. >> PICKING UP ON THAT, I'D LIKE TO TALK ABOUT A COUPLE OF COUNTRIES, JUST FOR SOME EXAMPLES HERE -- BRAZIL HAS OFTEN BEEN CITED AS KIND OF A BELLWETHER OF THE WAY THE REGION MIGHT GO IN THE FUTURE. NOW WE'VE JUST HAD A CHANGE OF LEADERSHIP IN BRAZIL. IS IT ACCURATE, DO YOU THINK, TO SAY, "WATCH BRAZIL, THAT'S THE WAY THINGS COULD DEVELOP MORE BROADLY AROUND THE REGION"? >> THE HOPEFUL THING ABOUT BRAZIL IS THAT YOU HAD A POLITICAL LEADER WHO CAME VERY MUCH FROM THE POORER CLASSES OF THE PEOPLE, CAME FROM THE LEFT, WHO RAN AND WAS ELECTED DEMOCRATICALLY, WAS ACCEPTED BY THE POLITICAL ESTABLISHMENT, THERE WAS NO CRISIS -- >> WASN'T A GREAT FRIEND OF THE U.S., EITHER, BEFORE HE WAS ELECTED.

10 >> HE WAS NOT, AND YET THE UNITED STATES HAS REACHED OUT AND TRIED TO WORK WITH HIM, AND I THINK THAT THAT IS A SIGN OF A TREND THAT IS GOING ON IN LATIN AMERICA WHICH IS IMPORTANT AND HOPEFUL, WHICH IS THAT ALL KINDS OF GROUPS AND PEOPLE WHO HAVE BEEN MARGINALIZED AND EXCLUDED POLITICALLY LARGELY INDIGENOUS POPULATIONS, BUT ALSO POORER PEOPLE, ARE TAKING THEIR PLACE IN THE POLITICAL PROCESS. THAT'S A GOOD THING. I THINK BRAZIL IS DOING PRETTY WELL, BUT I DON'T THINK BRAZIL IS A BELLWETHER, NECESSARILY. I THINK THAT ONE OF THE LESSONS WE HAVE TO LEARN IS THAT LATIN AMERICA IS A VERY COMPLICATED PLACE WITH LOTS OF COUNTRIES WITH VERY DIFFERENT HISTORIES. CHILE IS DOING EXTREMELY WELL, AND BOLIVIA IS IN CRISIS. MEXICO HAS MADE AN IMPORTANT DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION -- GUATEMALA, WHICH IS A NEIGHBOR, HAS NOT. SO YOU HAVE TO ALSO DIFFERENTIATE AMONG THESE COUNTRIES. >> JOY, I WANTED TO ASK YOU ABOUT ARGENTINA, BECAUSE YOU WERE RECENTLY THERE. THEY'RE A MAJOR NON-NATO ALLY OF THE UNITED STATES, THAT IMPLIES A KIND OF STATUS THAT NOBODY ELSE IN LATIN AMERICA HAS, THEY'VE GOT ENORMOUS ECONOMIC PROBLEMS NOW, AMONG PEOPLE WHO ARE NOT USED TO IT. WHAT ABOUT ARGENTINA, WHAT DO YOU SEE FOR THEM IN THE FUTURE? >> IN TERMS OF THE ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL SITUATION IN ARGENTINA, YOU'VE SEEN CHANGE OF GOVERNMENT THERE VERY RECENTLY AS WELL, YOU'VE SEEN THE PRESIDENT, KIRCHNER, TAKING VERY STRONG STEPS IN TERMS, I THINK IN TERMS OF DEALING WITH IMPUNITY FROM THE PAST, CONSOLIDATION OF DEMOCRACY, BEGINNING TO ADDRESS CORRUPTION ISSUES, BUT THEY STILL HAVE TREMENDOUS ECONOMIC STRUGGLES, AND THEY'RE ONE OF THE COUNTRIES THAT ARE LOOKING FOR A LITTLE SPACE FROM THE IMF AND TRYING TO NEGOTIATE AN AGREEMENT. >> THIS PROGRAM IS CALLED "GREAT DECISIONS." I'D LIKE TO PUT YOU BOTH IN THE BOAT OF BEING U.S. OFFICIALS HAVING TO MAKE ONE OF THOSE BIG DECISIONS, AND WE CAN'T LEAVE A PROGRAM TALKING ABOUT LATIN AMERICA WITHOUT EVEN TOUCHING ON CUBA. SO I'D LIKE TO ASK YOU BOTH, SHOULD THE UNITED STATES MAKE ANY KIND OF MAJOR CHANGE IN U.S. POLICY TOWARD CUBA THAT WOULD LIFT THE BOYCOTT OR SUBSTANTIALLY EASE THE BOYCOTT, OPEN RELATIONS, ET CETERA? AND SECONDARILY, CAN ANY PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES, WITH THE DOMESTIC POLITICS IN THE U.S. BEING WHAT IT IS, MAKE SUCH A DECISION -- JOY? >> YEAH, I THINK THIS IS A LOT LIKE DRUG POLICY, YOU DO THE SAME THING FOR YEARS AND YEARS AND YEARS, IT CONTINUES TO BE A FAILURE, AT SOME POINT YOU HAVE TO RECOGNIZE THAT THE POLICY HAS TO BE CHANGED. POLICY

11 TOWARD CUBA HAS BEEN GOING ON, THE SAME CURRENT U.S. POLICY OF ISOLATION, FOR THE PAST 40 YEARS. IT'S TIME TO LIFT THE EMBARGO AND TO ALLOW FOR TRAVEL, FOR U.S. CITIZEN TRAVEL TO CUBA. I THINK ENGAGEMENT IS THE WAY TO PROMOTE CHANGE. I ALSO SEE THAT THERE WERE VOTES IN CONGRESS THIS FALL, IN 2003 IN THE FALL, TO NOT ENFORCE THE TRAVEL BAN, BASICALLY, AND THERE IS THE POLITICAL SPACE OUT THERE FOR THIS PRESIDENT OR ANOTHER PRESIDENT IN THE FUTURE TO CHANGE THIS POLICY. >> BERNIE, YOU AGREE WITH THAT? WHAT WOULD YOU DO? >> I THINK DURING THE COLD WAR, WHEN CUBA WAS ALLIED MILITARILY WITH THE SOVIET UNION, WHEN CUBA WAS FOMENTING VIOLENT REVOLUTIONARY ACTIVITY IN THE HEMISPHERE, ISOLATING CUBA, DENYING IT ACCESS TO DOLLARS, WAS THE RIGHT THING TO DO. AND I THINK THAT POLICY LARGELY SUCCEEDED IN CONTAINING THE SPREAD OF REVOLUTIONARY VIOLENCE IN THIS HEMISPHERE. THAT WAS THEN, THIS IS NOW. IT SEEMS TO ME, WE SHOULD LEARN SOME LESSONS FROM CHANGES IN EASTERN EUROPE AND THE SOVIET UNION, WHERE ENGAGEMENT ACTUALLY MADE A BIGGER DIFFERENCE. SO I THINK WE SHOULD MOVE TOWARD ENGAGEMENT. IT DOESN'T MEAN IT HAS TO BE A COMPLETE, 100% CHANGE, BUT I THINK THAT IS THE RIGHT POLICY, AND I THINK IF THE ADMINISTRATION HAD A LITTLE BIT MORE POLITICAL COURAGE, THAT IT COULD MOVE IN THAT DIRECTION AND FIND THAT EVEN IN THE CUBAN-AMERICAN COMMUNITY, THERE'S MUCH MORE OPENNESS TOWARD TRYING TO FIND POLICIES THAT WILL SPEED A PEACEFUL AND DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION IN CUBA. BUT WE ARE STUCK IN THE PAST, AND I THINK IT'S A VERY STERILE DEBATE. >> YOU THINK THE POLITICS OF THE CUBAN-AMERICAN COMMUNITY HAS CHANGED ENOUGH TO ALLOW THAT SORT OF DECISION? >> WELL, I THINK IT WOULD, YES, BUT I THINK THAT A PRESIDENT WOULD HAVE TO BRING THE CUBAN-AMERICAN COMMUNITY INTO THE DECISION-MAKING, NOT ISOLATE IT OR TREAT IT AS A PARIAH. THEY HAVE A RIGHT AND A RESPONSIBILITY TO BE INVOLVED, THEY'RE AMERICAN CITIZENS, AND I THINK THAT AN ENLIGHTENED LEADERSHIP COULD MOVE THE DEBATE IF IT TRIED TO. BUT I THINK THAT POLITICIANS ARE USUALLY BEHIND THE PEOPLE, AND IN CUBA, I THINK THEY ARE. >> THANK YOU FOR JOINING US, BERNARD ARONSON, JOY OLSON, AND YOU, OUR AUDIENCE. UNTIL NEXT TIME, FOR "GREAT DECISIONS 2004," I'M RALPH BEGLEITER. >> TO LEARN MORE ABOUT "GREAT DECISIONS 2004," VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT TO ORDER THE FOREIGN POLICY ASSOCIATION BRIEFING BOOK, TRANSCRIPT, OR VIDEOCASSETTE, OR TO JOIN A "GREAT DECISIONS" DISCUSSION GROUP, CONTACT THE FOREIGN POLICY ASSOCIATION. "GREAT DECISIONS 2004" IS PRODUCED BY THE FOREIGN POLICY ASSOCIATION AND THE STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK NEIL D. LEVIN GRADUATE INSTITUTE OF

12 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AND COMMERCE. FUNDING FOR "GREAT DECISIONS 2004" IS PROVIDED BY THE STARR FOUNDATION AND THE WILLIAM & KAREN TELL FOUNDATION.