Critical analysis of Sri Lanka s economic challenges. Rohan Samarajiva OneText, 14 October 2016

Transcription

1 Critical analysis of Sri Lanka s economic challenges Rohan Samarajiva OneText, 14 October 2016

2 Problems... Not enough exports.... Young people wanting jobs that the economy is not producing... Getting old before getting rich.... Profligate government without resources to address our problems... 2

3 Problems... Not enough exports.... Young people wanting jobs that the economy is not producing... Getting old before getting rich.... Profligate government without resources to address our problems... 3

4 A solution: Global Value Chains 4

5 From the UNP 2015 General Election Manifesto 5

6 What does it take to participate in Global Value Chains? Greater certainty ( trade agreements) Low-cost labor, which we do not have; If not based on low-cost labor, skilled and productive workers ( education reforms) A big enough pool of workers ( education reforms; agricultural reforms; increasing labor participation by women; SOE reforms... ) Right kind of infrastructure ( SOE reforms) 6

7 What does it take to participate in Global Value Chains? Greater certainty ( trade agreements) Low-cost labor, which we do not have; If not based on low-cost labor, skilled and productive workers ( education reforms) A big enough pool of workers ( education reforms; agricultural reforms; increasing labor participation by women; SOE reforms... ) Right kind of infrastructure ( SOE reforms) 7

8 Greater certainty through trade agreements A world incapable of multilateral trade liberalization under the WTO is moving toward plurilateral and bilateral trade regimes that cover goods, services, investment and trade-related matters ASEAN is looking at RCEP and TPP India has entered into a large number of bilateral agreements; in RCEP; considering TPP All Sri Lanka has are opportunities for bilaterals, despite having been member of GATT since 1947 and GATS since 1995 Many disadvantages to negotiating multiple bilateral agreements, but better than being excluded from benefits of agreements 8

9 Vietnam has many firms that compete with Sri Lanka firms Overall apparel import growth used to come from China and Bangladesh, but today Vietnam is the main driver. I don t think you will see that trend abate in the short term. Nate Herman, Vice President of International Trade, American Apparel & Footwear Association In 2016 AT Kearney Global Services Index (higher is more attractive for BPO sourcing) Vietnam is 11 th (score of 5.66) Sri Lanka is 14 th (score of 5.54) 9

10 Vietnam in RCEP & TPP; India & China in RCEP 10

11 Vietnam joined WTO in Additional Trade agreements since then TPP (signed, not yet in effect) Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus (signed, not yet in effect) ASEAN Free Trade Area ASEAN-Australia+NZ FTA ASEAN-India CECA ASEAN-Japan CEP ASEAN-China CECA ASEAN-Rep of Korea CECA Chile-Vietnam FTA Japan-Vietnam ECA Rep of Korea-Vietnam FTA 11

12 Results: Exports increased x 9.5 (v x 2.1 for Sri Lanka) in FDI (USD millions) Exports (USD billions) Vietnam (2000) Vietnam (2014) Multiple Sri Lanka (2000) Sri Lanka (2014) Multiple 1,298 9, , Source: Sri Lanka BOI 12

13 What does it take to participate in Global Value Chains? Greater certainty ( trade agreements) Low-cost labor, which we do not have; If not based on low-cost labor, skilled and productive workers ( education reforms) A big enough pool of workers ( education reforms; agricultural reforms; increasing labor participation by women; SOE reforms... ) Right kind of infrastructure ( SOE reforms) 13

14 Sri Lanka s missing labor Labor Force Participation rate Ghana Indonesia Nepal Sri Lanka Thailand Vietnam Labor force participation rate, total (% of total population ages 15+) (modeled ILO estimate) 14

15 Considered too old? Population ages 65 and above (% of total) Ghana Indonesia Nepal Sri Lanka Thailand Vietnam World Bank staff estimates based on age distributions of United Nations Population Division's World Population Prospects. 15

16 Those who go for foreign employment (flow, not stock) Professional Middle Level Clerical & Related Skilled Semi-Skilled Unskilled Housemaid Total Colombo 1,817 2,626 4,147 9, ,757 8,301 35,593 Kandy 483 1,806 2,600 6, ,221 9,474 28,850 Gampaha 845 1,887 2,774 8, ,378 6,549 28,548 Kurunegala 239 1,074 2,023 6, ,200 11,209 27,967 Batticaloa 146 2,761 3,888 4, ,962 4,531 23,603 Puttalama 133 1,599 2,168 4, ,471 7,850 21,867 Ampara 315 1,887 2,452 6, ,850 2,677 20,389 Kalutara ,181 4, ,412 4,335 15,846 Galle , ,699 3,754 12,933 Trincomalee 59 1,011 1,290 2, ,673 5,175 12,479 Kegalla , ,446 3,093 9,636 Anuradhapura , ,500 4,291 8,314 Jaffna 124 1,538 1,688 1, , ,284 Matale , ,918 2,922 7,842 Polonnaruwa , ,322 3,412 7,063 Ratnapura , ,882 2,654 6,620 Badulla , ,379 2,969 6,542 Matara , ,070 1,295 5,673 Hambantota , ,597 1,231 4,395 Vavuniya ,591 Monaragala ,252 Mannar ,201 Nuwara Eliya ,144 Kilinochchi Not Identified Mullativu Total 5,339 20,749 29,237 73,040 3,972 79,415 88, ,413

17 Problems... Not enough exports.... Young people wanting jobs that the economy is not producing... Getting old before getting rich.... Profligate government without resources to address our problems... 17

18 Growing old before getting rich... Increasing number of elderly persons (including many who are disabled) will have to be supported by a decreasing working population A publicly funded safety net is essential To take care of the elderly and the sick, but also To enable those in the productive age groups to innovate and take risks A risk-averse nation cannot prosper in today s fast-changing global economy as shown by Nokia, Yahoo, Kodak, Borders Books... Source: Dr W. Indralal de Silva 18

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20 Living longer, but not well... Source: World Bank (2010). Prevention and control of selected non-communicable diseases in Sri Lanka 20

21 Problems... Not enough exports.... Young people wanting jobs that the economy is not producing... Getting old before getting rich.... Profligate government without resources to address our problems... 21

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