Population. Table Population Growth and Region of Influence,

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1 3.11 SOCIOECONOMICS Environmental Setting The environmental setting for this section presents the baseline population, employment, and housing conditions in the vicinity of the Port of Long Beach. Baseline conditions also include a presentation of information related to Southern California as a whole, which is used to contextualize the information presented for the area surrounding the Project site. For the purposes of this socioeconomic analysis, the Southern California region includes the counties of Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Ventura Area of Influence The region of influence (ROI) presented in this socioeconomic analysis is the five-county region outlined above. Within this ROI exists the Gateway Cities subregion (as defined by the Southern California Association of Governments [SCAG]), which includes the 27 cities of Artesia, Avalon, Bell, Bell Gardens, Bellflower, Cerritos, Commerce, Compton, Cudahy, Downey, Hawaiian Gardens, Huntington Park, La Habra Heights, La Mirada, Lakewood, Long Beach, Lynwood, Maywood, Montebello, Norwalk, Paramount, Pico-Rivera, Santa Fe Springs, Signal Hill, South Gate, Vernon, and Whittier. The Gateway Cities subregion also includes an unincorporated Los Angeles area. Important population, economic, and housing statistics are presented for this subregion to present a more detailed baseline description of the area near the Proposed Project Setting Population The total population within the ROI in 2008, according to SCAG, was approximately 18.4 million residents, as shown in Table Of the 18.4 million residents, approximately 10.3 million were in Los Angeles. Orange, the second largest county in the ROI, had a smaller population of approximately 3.1 million residents. The smallest county in the ROI, in terms of population, was Ventura at 831,676. Table Population Growth and Region of Influence, Los Angeles Orange Riverside San Bernardino Ventura Region of Influence ,863,164 2,410,556 1,170,413 1,418, ,016 14,531, ,034,571 2,999,320 1,747,877 1,864, ,006 17,443, ,206,001 3,059,952 1,931,332 1,971, ,052 17,982, ,347,644 3,123,253 2,093,135 2,052, ,676 18,448, ,695,956 3,300,723 2,437,054 2,236, ,556 19,547, ,944,751 3,427,488 2,682,710 2,367, ,328 20,332, ,574,828 3,526,653 3,179,319 2,681, ,095 21,918,176 Average Annual Growth % 1.8% 4.3% 2.6% 1.4% 1.6% Average Annual Growth % 0.7% 2.8% 1.4% 0.7% 0.9% Average Annual Growth % 0.6% 2.4% 1.4% 0.7% 0.9% Source: SCAG 2011 PIER S MARINE TERMINAL & BACK CHANNEL IMPROVEMENTS DRAFT EIS/EIR SEPTEMBER 2011

2 According to the U.S. Census and SCAG, the ROI experienced population growth at a rate of approximately 1.6 percent per year from 1990 through All of the counties within the ROI experienced some amount of growth during that 15-year period. Riverside had the highest growth rate, increasing in population 4.3 percent per year. San Bernardino followed with a population growth rate of 2.6 percent per year. Los Angeles experienced the slowest population growth rate, with an average annual rate of 1.0 percent. According to SCAG, the population in the fivecounty ROI continued to grow through SCAG projections suggest that this population growth will continue into A SCAG forecast report produced in 2004 suggests that the projected growth will likely be attributable to migration from neighboring cities, counties, and states, as well as migration from Latin America, Asia, and the Middle East. By 2030, Hispanics are projected to be the largest minority group. The ROI remained steady at an average annual growth rate of approximately 0.9 percent between 2005 and 2008, and it is expected to grow at an annual rate of approximately 0.9 percent between 2008 and Riverside continued to have the highest growth rate, increasing in population 2.8 percent per year between 2005 and Between 2008 and 2030, it is projected that the population growth rate in Riverside will be approximately 2.4 percent per year, the highest among all ROI counties. In Los Angeles, the average annual growth decreased slightly to approximately 0.5 percent between the years 2005 and Los Angeles is expected to have the least amount of average annual growth between the years 2008 and 2030, at 0.5 percent. Orange s growth rate between 2005 and 2008 slowed to 0.7 percent and is projected to grow 0.6 percent between 2008 and The Gateway Cities subregion of Los Angeles had a population of approximately 2.1 million people in 2008, according to SCAG. The region is considered the industrial heart of Los Angeles and contains the Port of Long Beach. As can be seen in Table , the population in the Gateway Cities subregion is expected to grow through The largest cities within the Gateway Cities subregion, according to SCAG (2011), were Long Beach (491,273 residents), Downey (113,102 residents), and Norwalk (109,321 residents). Approximately 362,310 residents lived in unincorporated portions of Los Angeles that are considered part of the Gateway Cities subregion. Among the cities in the Gateway Cities subregion, Signal Hill, Bell, and Artesia experienced the highest average annual growth, with 1.8, 0.6, and 0.5 percent, respectively, between 2003 and All cities within the subregion experienced growth between 2003 and 2008, with many cities experiencing between 0.2 and 0.6 percent average annual growth. The cities with the lowest projected average annual growth rate were Bellflower, La Habra Heights, Lynwood, Norwalk, and Whittier, with less than 0.1 percent per year between 2003 and 2008 (rounded to 0.1 in Table ). According to SCAG (2011) data, the highest rates of average annual population growth for the years 2005 through 2030 is expected to occur in the cities of Avalon (1.5 percent), Santa Fe Springs (0.9 percent), La Habra Heights (0.7 percent), and Signal Hill (0.7 percent). The unincorporated regions of Los Angeles are also expected to have an average annual growth rate of approximately 0.7 percent between 2008 and Employment In 2008, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the largest centers for employment within the ROI were Los Angeles and Orange Counties, with approximately 5.8 and 2.0 million workers, respectively (Table ). Employment within the ROI as a whole was primarily in retail trade, manufacturing, health care and social assistance, and civilian government employment (federal, state, and local). This pattern in employment is similar to that seen in Los Angeles, with 9.3 percent of workers in retail trade, 8.1 percent in manufacturing, and 10.5 percent in government. PIER S MARINE TERMINAL & BACK CHANNEL IMPROVEMENTS DRAFT EIS/EIR SEPTEMBER 2011

3 Table Population Growth, Gateway Cities Subregion, Gateway Cities Average Annual Growth Average Annual Growth Artesia 17,093 17,354 17,503 17,623 17,709 17, % 0.1% Avalon 3,484 3,488 3,526 3,902 4,170 4, % 1.5% Bell 38,421 38,775 38,651 38,914 39,101 39, % 0.1% Bell Gardens 45,821 46,040 46,643 47,303 47,775 48, % 0.2% Bellflower 76,669 77,046 76,954 76,971 76,983 81, % 0.3% Cerritos 54,414 54,791 54,752 54,963 55,113 55, % 0.1% Commerce 13,266 13,431 13,505 13,548 13,578 13, % 0.1% Compton 97,404 98,581 99,053 99,373 99, , % 0.1% Cudahy 25,541 25,673 25,804 26,740 27,408 28, % 0.5% Downey 112, , , , , , % 0.4% Hawaiian Gardens 15,632 15,813 15,848 16,225 16,495 17, % 0.3% Huntington Park 64,177 64,574 64,496 67,161 69,065 72, % 0.6% La Habra Heights 6,106 6,133 6,128 6,356 6,516 7, % 0.7% La Mirada 49,499 49,990 49,879 51,068 51,917 53, % 0.3% Lakewood 82,672 83,231 83,257 83,598 83,841 83, % 0.0% Long Beach 483, , , , , , % 0.6% Lynwood 72,738 72,916 72,957 74,347 75,957 77, % 0.3% Maywood 29,263 29,481 29,892 30,064 30,187 30, % 0.1% Norwalk 109, , , , , , % 0.3% Paramount 57,490 57,783 57,756 59,776 61,219 64, % 0.6% Pico Rivera 66,445 66,934 66,770 68,811 70,269 73, % 0.4% Santa Fe Springs 17,415 17,771 17,737 18,858 19,658 21, % 0.9% Signal Hill 10,451 10,986 11,384 11,905 12,277 13, % 0.7% South Gate 100, , , , , , % 0.6% Vernon a % 0.0% Whittier 86,675 86,789 86,620 88,174 89,274 91, % 0.2% Unincorporated Area 332, , , , , , % 0.7% Total 2,069,480 2,094,268 2,117,714 2,170,672 2,208,499 2,323, % 0.4% a Vernon is declared a city of industry in which the city is primarily composed of various industrial plants, including manufacturing and food processing. Therefore, Vernon had a very small resident population of 95 people in However, due to the nature of the city, employment was nearly 40,000 in 2003 (SCAG 2008). Source: SCAG 2011 PIER S MARINE TERMINAL & BACK CHANNEL IMPROVEMENTS DRAFT EIS/EIR SEPTEMBER 2011

4 Table Employment by Industry, Counties in the Region of Influence, 2008 Industry Los Angeles Orange Riverside San Bernardino Ventura Region of Influence Total full-time and parttime employment 5,807,134 2,015, , , ,871 10,008,516 Farm employment 5,828 2,865 8,121 2,967 15,238 35,019 Forestry, fishing, related activities, and 2,997 1,929 7,573 1,015 8,179 21,693 other Mining 11,336 3,737 1,527 1,089 2,073 19,762 Utilities 14,130 4,200 1,928 4,282 1,095 25,635 Construction 235, ,578 79,752 55,556 25, ,350 Manufacturing 468, ,631 53,842 63,634 38, ,005 Wholesale trade 273, ,450 26,500 40,192 15, ,247 Retail trade 541, , , ,217 47,910 1,000,465 Transportation and warehousing 212,819 35,304 28,621 58,882 7, ,412 Information 253,442 36,373 10,242 8,949 7, ,431 Finance and insurance 267, ,805 30,814 29,563 24, ,997 Real estate, rental, and leasing 342, ,629 46,674 35,326 23, ,931 Professional, scientific, and technical services 481, ,352 45,538 37,813 32, ,107 Management of companies and 60,948 27,639 3,811 6,626 4, ,569 enterprises Administrative and waste services 387, ,816 57,975 71,626 26, ,073 Educational services 139,845 35,006 10,129 12,712 7, ,911 Health care and social assistance 514, ,606 71,326 83,874 35, ,541 Arts, entertainment, and recreation 205,511 56,739 18,847 12,451 10, ,356 Accommodation and food services 360, ,063 68,681 56,952 29, ,956 Other services, except public administration 399, ,398 53,862 51,388 25, ,080 Federal, civilian 51,341 11,764 6,729 12,957 7,320 90,111 Military 18,545 5,668 3,514 20,010 6,900 54,637 State and local 558, , , ,362 36, ,228 Source: BEA 2011 PIER S MARINE TERMINAL & BACK CHANNEL IMPROVEMENTS DRAFT EIS/EIR SEPTEMBER 2011

5 Orange has higher proportions in retail trade and manufacturing but a lower proportion in government. Transportation and warehousing accounted for 3.6 percent of the employment in Los Angeles and 3.4 percent of total employment in the ROI. According to 2008 values by SCAG, total employment within the ROI grew at approximately 0.5 percent between 2003 and 2008 (Table ). Growth during this time occurred primarily within Riverside and San Bernardino Counties, which experienced 2.8 and 1.9 percent average annual growth, respectively. Los Angeles experienced a slight decrease over the same period, with -0.3 percent average annual growth. Employment projections for 2008 through 2030 suggest an average annual growth for the ROI of 0.8 percent. In a trend similar to what was seen between 2003 and 2008, average annual growth is expected to be the highest for Riverside and San Bernardino Counties, with 2.8 and 1.8 percent, respectively. Employment in Orange increased between 2003 and 2008 at 0.7 percent, but is projected to slow from 2008 through 2030, at 0.5 percent. Los Angeles is projected to remain steady between 2008 and 2030, at 0.5 percent. SCAG suggests that this projected slow employment growth in Los Angeles could be attributed to an aging population in the county, plus a general shift of employment to the east and into the Inland Empire. For the Gateway Cities subregion, average annual employment growth for the years between 2003 and 2008 was generally low or showed a decrease, with many annual average rates for cities within the subregion ranging from 0.0 to 0.6 percent (Table ). Avalon, Hawaiian Gardens, and Vernon showed a rate greater than 1.0 percent, at 12.4, 1.0, and 2.6 percent average annual growth between 2003 and 2008, respectively. The subregion as a whole experienced an average annual change in employment of -0.2 percent. Projections for growth for the years 2008 to 2030 suggest that the Gateway Cities are projected to experience a relatively low amount of average annual growth, varying from 0.1 to 0.7 percent. As a subregion, the average annual growth in employment projected for the period of 2008 to 2030 is expected to increase to 0.4 percent. Table Full-Time and Part-Time Employment, Counties in the Region of Influence, Los Angeles Orange Riverside San Bernardino Ventura Region of Influence ,353,490 1,567, , , ,510 7,481, ,397,025 1,615, , , ,357 7,712, ,336,285 1,624, , , ,720 7,678, ,435,174 1,668, , , ,190 7,953, ,647,080 1,763, , , ,054 8,544, ,827,047 1,800,577 1,080, , ,819 9,090,991 Average Annual Growth % 0.7% 2.8% 1.9% 0.8% 0.5% Average Annual Growth % 0.5% 2.8% 1.8% 0.8% 0.8% Source: SCAG 2011 PIER S MARINE TERMINAL & BACK CHANNEL IMPROVEMENTS DRAFT EIS/EIR SEPTEMBER 2011

6 Table Full-Time and Part-Time Employment, Gateway Cities Subregion, Gateway Cities Average Annual Growth Average Annual Growth Artesia 5,728 5,797 5,904 6,148 6,322 6, % 0.5% Avalon 2,699 2,769 4,377 4,562 4,694 4, % 0.6% Bell 8,805 8,841 8,969 9,288 9,515 9, % 0.5% Bell Gardens 7,751 7,840 8,022 8,349 8,582 8, % 0.5% Bellflower 15,407 15,606 15,963 16,752 17,316 18, % 0.6% Cerritos 35,879 36,191 35,886 37,108 37,980 39, % 0.5% Commerce 48,441 48,441 48,133 48,642 49,004 49, % 0.2% Compton 30,281 30,322 30,584 31,396 31,976 32, % 0.4% Cudahy 3,391 3,391 3,438 3,548 3,633 3, % 0.5% Downey 39,053 39,366 40,226 41,925 43,138 45, % 0.6% Hawaiian Gardens 2,713 2,768 2,852 3,001 3,107 3, % 0.3% Huntington Park 16,252 16,266 16,398 16,862 17,192 17, % 0.4% La Habra Heights % 0.6% La Mirada 19,208 19,264 19,389 19,526 19,623 19, % 0.1% Lakewood 16,742 17,000 15,699 16,537 17,136 18, % 0.7% Long Beach 179, , , , , , % 0.6% Lynwood 12,956 12,999 13,244 13,773 14,150 14, % 0.5% Maywood 3,710 3,715 3,744 3,860 3,943 4, % 0.4% Norwalk 23,636 23,938 24,553 25,581 26,315 27, % 0.6% Paramount 18,211 18,257 18,270 18,673 18,960 19, % 0.3% Pico Rivera 16,061 16,061 16,132 16,523 16,803 17, % 0.3% Santa Fe Springs 49,981 49,981 49,621 50,299 50,784 51, % 0.2% Signal Hill 11,622 11,822 11,655 12,173 12,543 12, % 0.5% South Gate 19,690 19,690 19,716 20,176 20,504 21, % 0.3% Vernon a 39,483 39,483 44,558 45,858 46,786 48, % 0.4% Whittier 30,389 30,682 31,338 32,779 33,809 35, % 0.6% Unincorporated Area 82,421 83,435 76,543 76,989 77,308 82, % 0.4% Total 741, , , , , , % 0.4% a Vernon is declared a city of industry in which the city is primarily composed of various industrial plants, including manufacturing and food processing. Therefore, Vernon had a very small resident population of 95 people in However, due to the nature of the city, employment was nearly 40,000 in 2003 (SCAG 2008). Source: SCAG 2011 PIER S MARINE TERMINAL & BACK CHANNEL IMPROVEMENTS DRAFT EIS/EIR SEPTEMBER 2011

7 Households and Housing According to the U.S. Census American Community Survey (2011), the latest that is available, the average household size in Los Angeles was 3.02 people per household. The average household size for Orange, Riverside, and Ventura Counties were comparable, at 3.01, 3.11, and 3.04 persons, respectively. San Bernardino had the largest household size in the ROI, with 3.30 people per household. SCAG suggests that household size may decrease through This is attributed to two major demographic shifts. First, by 2030, it is projected that a higher proportion of Asian and Hispanic residents will have been born in the United States and are more likely to have smaller families. Second, the baby boomer generation will be older and will likely have smaller households than the middle-aged population (SCAG 2004a). According to projections from SCAG (2011), the number of households within the ROI is expected to increase by approximately 1.2 million between 2008 and 2030 (Table ). The growth between 2003 and 2008 was 1.1 percent, with growth projected for the period between 2008 and 2030 to be 0.9 percent. The county with the highest projected growth for the period 2008 to 2030 is Riverside, with 2.5 percent average annual growth. San Bernardino is also projected to have an average annual growth higher than the ROI average, with 1.5 percent. Orange, which experienced 0.7 percent average annual growth between 2003 and 2008, is expected to see relatively slow growth between 2008 and 2030, with 0.4 percent average annual growth. Los Angeles is projected to experience 0.7 percent average annual growth between 2008 and According to detailed projections by SCAG (2011), the projected growth in the number of households for cities within the Gateway Cities subregion is generally lower than that projected for Los Angeles as a whole (Table ). While the fastest growing cities between the years 2003 and 2008 are Artesia (0.4 percent), Maywood (0.4 percent), and Signal Hill (1.7 percent), the vast majority of cities had growth less than 0.3 percent. Cities that are projected to grow at a more rapid pace than other Gateway Cities subregion cities between 2008 and 2030 are Avalon (1.2 percent) and Santa Fe Springs (0.8 percent). The unincorporated portions of Los Angeles within the subregion are projected to have an average annual growth of 0.8 percent between 2008 and Table Number of Households, Region of Influence, Los Angeles Orange Riverside San Bernardino Ventura Region of Influence ,177, , , , ,441 5,508, ,212, , , , ,997 5,642, ,267, , , , ,665 5,816, ,411,245 1,032, , , ,234 6,192, ,513,838 1,056, , , ,354 6,460, ,737,045 1,080,077 1,049, , ,751 6,987,631 Average Annual Growth % 0.7% 0.4% 2.0% 1.0% 1.1% Average Annual Growth % 0.4% 2.5% 1.5% 0.8% 0.9% Source: SCAG 2011 PIER S MARINE TERMINAL & BACK CHANNEL IMPROVEMENTS DRAFT EIS/EIR SEPTEMBER 2011

8 Table Number of Households, Gateway Cities Subregion, Gateway Cities Average Annual Growth Average Annual Growth Artesia 4,491 4,534 4,585 4,670 4,731 4, % 0.3% Avalon 1,228 1,222 1,239 1,359 1,444 1, % 1.2% Bell 8,989 9,018 9,008 9,037 9,059 9, % 0.1% Bell Gardens 9,468 9,455 9,600 9,624 9,641 9, % 0.0% Bellflower 23,640 23,610 23,632 23,637 23,641 25, % 0.3% Cerritos 15,636 15,647 15,680 15,742 15,787 15, % 0.1% Commerce 3,322 3,331 3,356 3,389 3,413 3, % 0.1% Compton 22,366 22,499 22,656 22,664 22,670 22, % 0.0% Cudahy 5,497 5,491 5,531 5,757 5,918 6, % 0.6% Downey 34,176 34,217 34,322 34,962 35,419 36, % 0.3% Hawaiian Gardens 3,566 3,586 3,602 3,694 3,760 3, % 0.3% Huntington Park 14,945 14,945 14,968 15,598 16,048 16, % 0.6% La Habra Heights 1,939 1,945 1,961 2,046 2,107 2, % 0.7% La Mirada 14,784 14,839 14,840 15,010 15,131 15, % 0.2% Lakewood 26,897 26,913 26,979 27,307 27,542 27, % 0.1% Long Beach 164, , , , , , % 0.6% Lynwood 14,428 14,375 14,413 14,763 15,013 15, % 0.3% Maywood 6,481 6,489 6,594 6,632 6,659 6, % 0.1% Norwalk 27,115 27,127 27,140 27,280 27,380 27, % 0.1% Paramount 13,974 13,959 13,981 14,085 14,160 14, % 0.1% Pico Rivera 16,586 16,607 16,611 17,235 17,680 18, % 0.5% Santa Fe Springs 4,933 5,004 5,005 5,295 5,502 5, % 0.8% Signal Hill 3,901 4,078 4,235 4,387 4,495 4, % 0.5% South Gate 23,335 23,380 23,637 24,526 25,161 26, % 0.5% Vernon a % 0.0% Whittier 28,286 28,287 28,310 29,001 29,494 29, % 0.1% Unincorporated Area 80,121 82,041 87,562 88,852 89, , % 0.8% Total 574, , , , , , % 0.4% a Vernon is declared a city of industry in which the city is primarily composed of various industrial plants, including manufacturing and food processing. Therefore, Vernon had a very small resident population of 95 people in However, due to the nature of the city, employment was nearly 40,000 in 2003 (SCAG 2008). Source: SCAG 2011 PIER S MARINE TERMINAL & BACK CHANNEL IMPROVEMENTS DRAFT EIS/EIR SEPTEMBER 2011

9 Table presents housing units within the ROI for 2000 and As shown, Los Angeles and Orange Counties have the highest number of housing units for the five-county ROI, with approximately 4.2 million housing units in 2000 and 4.4 million housing units in Average annual growth between 2000 and 2009 has been the highest in Riverside, with 2.8 percent average annual growth in the number of housing units. San Bernardino demonstrates 1.2 percent average annual growth over this same time, and Los Angeles and Orange Counties, while having the most housing units, have the slowest amount of growth, with 0.3 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively. The ROI as a whole had an average annual growth rate of 0.7 percent from 2000 to Occupancy rates and tenure for the five-county ROI for 2009 are presented in Table As shown, the majority of housing units are owneroccupied in four of the five counties: Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Ventura. In Los Angeles, a slightly larger percentage of units are renter-occupied. For the ROI as a whole, there is a higher proportion of renteroccupied units than in all counties but Los Angeles. Housing units, occupancy status, and tenure for the cities within the Gateway Cities subregion are presented in Table The largest source of housing within the subregion at the time of the U.S. Census in 2010 was Long Beach, with 173,932 housing units. Of the total number of units in Long Beach, 92.6 percent were occupied. This proportion is relatively similar to other cities in the subregion, which demonstrate occupancy proportions ranging generally from 92 percent (Long Beach) to 98.6 percent (Cerritos). Only Avalon had a lower proportion of occupied units, at 61.4 percent. Table Total Housing Units, Region of Influence, Counties Average Annual Growth Los Angeles 3,270,909 3,370, % Orange 969,484 1,028, % Riverside 584, , % San Bernardino 601, , % Ventura 251, , % Region of Influence 5,678,148 6,095, % Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 and 2011 Table Tenure of Housing Units, Region of Influence, 2009 Counties Occupied Housing Units Owner Occupied Renter Occupied Percent Owner Occupied Percent Renter Occupied Los Angeles 3,178,266 1,544,182 1,634, % 51.4% Orange 974, , , % 38.5% Riverside 645, , , % 29.8% San Bernardino 588, , , % 34.7% Ventura 257, ,991 83, % 32.4% Region of Influence 5,643,426 3,154,594 2,488, % 44.1% Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2011 PIER S MARINE TERMINAL & BACK CHANNEL IMPROVEMENTS DRAFT EIS/EIR SEPTEMBER 2011

10 Table Total Housing Units, Gateway Cities Subregion, 2009 Gateway Cities a Housing Units Occupied Housing Units Percent of Units Occupied Owner Occupied Renter Occupied % Owner Occupied % Renter Occupied Artesia 4,485 4, % 2,560 1, % 41.8% Avalon 1,808 1, % % 69.6% Bell 9,463 9, % 2,478 6, % 72.6% Bell Gardens 10,094 9, % 2,460 7, % 75.2% Bellflower 23,848 22, % 8,824 13, % 61.2% Cerritos 15,642 15, % 12,714 2, % 17.6% Commerce 3,403 3, % 1,668 1, % 49.6% Compton 23,665 22, % 12,476 9, % 44.2% Cudahy 5,689 5, % 1,029 4, % 81.1% Downey 33,539 32, % 16,879 15, % 47.4% Hawaiian Gardens 4,155 3, % 2,027 1, % 48.4% Huntington Park 15,761 14, % 4,197 10, % 71.6% La Habra Heights 2,041 1, % 1, % 1.5% La Mirada 15,105 14, % 12,007 2, % 18.3% Lakewood 25,710 24, % 18,279 6, % 26.6% Long Beach 173, , % 68,406 92, % 57.5% Lynwood 15,079 14, % 7,022 7, % 50.8% Maywood 6,972 6, % 1,835 4, % 72.6% Norwalk 27,201 26, % 17,414 8, % 33.8% Paramount 15,426 14, % 6,615 7, % 54.4% Pico Rivera 16,707 16, % 11,106 5, % 31.6% Santa Fe Springs 5,188 4, % 2,778 2, % 44.1% Signal Hill 4,384 4, % 2,071 2, % 50.0% South Gate 24,556 23, % 10,710 13, % 54.9% Vernon % % 82.6% Whittier 27,840 26, % 15,834 10, % 41.0% Gateway Cities Subregion Total 511, , % 243, , % 49.8% a Information is not available for the unincorporated area included in the Gateway Cities subregion. Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2011 PIER S MARINE TERMINAL & BACK CHANNEL IMPROVEMENTS DRAFT EIS/EIR SEPTEMBER 2011

11 The cities within the subregion with the highest number of owner-occupied units were Long Beach (68,406 units), Lakewood (18,279 units), and Norwalk (17,414 units). The cities within the subregion with the highest number of renteroccupied units were Long Beach (92,566 units), Downey (15,216 units), and Bellflower (13,909 units). The distribution between owner-occupied and renter-occupied units within the cities of the Gateway Cities subregion is generally evenly distributed, with only a few cities exhibiting a substantial imbalance. Those cities with a disproportionate number of renter-occupied units are Avalon, Bell, Bell Gardens, Cudahy, Huntington Park, Maywood, and Vernon. Those cities with a disproportionate number of owneroccupied units are Cerritos, La Habra Heights, La Mirada, and Lakewood Impacts and Mitigation Measures Significance Criteria Project construction would have a significant impact on socioeconomics if it would do any of the following: SOCIO-1: Induce a substantial decrease in area employment, either directly or indirectly; SOCIO-2: Induce substantial population growth in an area, either directly or indirectly; or SOCIO-3: Induce a substantial increase in area housing, either directly or indirectly. Project operation would have a significant impact on socioeconomics if it would do any of the following: SOCIO-4: Induce a substantial decrease in area employment, either directly or indirectly; SOCIO-5: Induce substantial population growth in an area, either directly or indirectly; or SOCIO-6: Induce a substantial increase in area housing, either directly or indirectly. In contrast to CEQA, NEPA requires that the economic/employment impact of a project be evaluated in the environmental document. As identified in Section of the CEQ Regulations of Implementing NEPA, effects to be assessed include, ecological (such as the effects on natural resources and on the components, structures, and functioning of affected ecosystems), aesthetic, historic, cultural, economic, social, or health [emphasis added]. However, NEPA does not suggest specific language for a criterion to assess this issue area. In consideration of the late-2000 financial crisis and high unemployment statewide, it was determined that a criterion focused on disclosing possible employment decreases as a result of the proposed project would have the most relevance to the public with regard to assessing economic impacts of the proposed project. Hence, Significance Criteria Socio-1 and Socio-4 evaluate anticipated employment decreases as a result of the proposed project. Significance criteria Socio-2, Socio-3, Socio-5 and Socio-6 are common in joint CEQA/NEPA documents as they assess the environmental impact to population and housing. NEPA does not suggest specific language for criteria to assess these issue areas. However, being patterned on the suggested criteria in the CEQA Statutes and Guidelines (Appendix G), Significance Criteria Socio-2, Socio-3, Socio-5 and Socio-6 are applicable for both the purposes of CEQA and NEPA Methodology The overall approach here is to generate areaspecific, Project-related employment from which population in-migration and housing impacts are derived. This is accomplished through a linked modeling system consisting of an input-output model and a labor market study model. The former model calculates Project employment for the ROI and Los Angeles ; the latter, developed specifically for the Gateway Cities PIER S MARINE TERMINAL & BACK CHANNEL IMPROVEMENTS DRAFT EIS/EIR SEPTEMBER 2011

12 subregion, determines how many people and households will migrate into the subregion to fill these jobs, based on the supply of labor and the commuting patterns of workers. Employment The socioeconomic impacts stemming from the Project are examined in detail at the Gateway Cities subregion, a subarea of the region wherein most Port-related transportation and warehouse activity exists. Employment impacts are also addressed at the ROI (i.e., local fivecounty region) level, albeit more generally due to the types of Project jobs considered and their dispersed spatial pattern. For the Gateway Cities subregion, a focused analysis is undertaken that considers the local availability of Port industry labor for purposes of estimating how many Project jobs involved in moving and handling cargo likely will be filled by in-migrants. A component of the analysis involves analyzing the commuting patterns of workers, given that places of work and places of residence are not fully contained in the subregion. In effect, work-based employment numbers must be converted into residencebased population numbers, specifically measured in terms of in-migrants into the subregion. This conversion involves an intermediate step whereby employment is first converted to the number of households. This measure is also used as an estimate of Projectrelated housing demand, which is another indicator of Project impacts. For the region, the Project will generate a number of Port user jobs consisting of export manufacturers and wholesale distributors of imports. Unlike Port industry activity, which is concentrated in the Gateway Cities subregion, Port users are scattered throughout the region, as are the places where Port user workers live. Also, many Port user jobs are expected to be filled within the region since they are in manufacturing sectors where employment numbers have been in decline for many years. For these reasons primarily, Project operations are not expected to cause growth-inducing impacts at the regional level. Likewise, construction workers and the production of construction materials for the Project are located throughout the region. Recent, deep declines in construction sector employment have generated a substantial labor surplus such that in-migration will not be required to satisfy Project-induced demands for construction workers. Project-related employment, both construction and operations, is estimated with an input-output (I-O) model. The I-O model used for this analysis was developed by Rutgers University (R/ECON I-O) and is routinely used by the Port to estimate the economic impacts of many different projects. The Port s I-O model uses direct project spending to estimate construction employment, and the volume and value of cargo to derive Port operations employment. Operations jobs related to Port industry, or businesses involved in moving and handling cargo, are calculated by entering cargo volume into the model, which translates twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) or bulk tons into sector expenditures. Operations jobs related to Port users, such as exporters and wholesalers, are estimated from the value of cargo that is manufactured and distributed. Sector-specific wholesale trade margins are applied to the value of cargo imports, which is treated as the producer price of those imports, to arrive at wholesale trade spending. All employment numbers generated by the model account for indirect (respending by industry) and induced (respending by labor) impacts. For this analysis, construction employment was derived by running the I-O model for yearspecific expenditures developed from the Project s construction budget and schedule. The Project s operations employment was estimated using a combination of snap-shot model runs for marine terminal operations produced by the Port in 2005, Project-specific TEU estimates derived from the Port s terminal capacity modeling system (see Section 1.3), and a 2030 container cargo forecast produced for the Port in The 2005 model runs yielded Port industry and Port user employment for all Port operations. Jobs-per-1,000 TEUs was teased out of this study and updated based on observed changes in labor productivity (see Table ). These PIER S MARINE TERMINAL & BACK CHANNEL IMPROVEMENTS DRAFT EIS/EIR SEPTEMBER 2011

13 rates were then multiplied by estimates of future Project throughput for years 2013, 2020, and 2030 to derive the Project s operations-related employment. Table Jobs per 1,000 TEUs LA Port Industry 5- Region Port Industry 5- Region Port Users Source: R/ECON I-O Model and Port of Long Beach. Note that expected gains in labor productivity cause the job factors to decline over time. As a result, overall Project employment numbers decline from 2020 to 2030 because the number of TEUs handled at the Project terminal reaches capacity by Between 2013 and 2020, overall project employment goes up because TEUs increase over that period, which more than offsets the labor productivity gains. The Port s I-O model generates employment numbers by place of work for specific geographic areas. For construction impacts, the Port s five-county region I-O model is used to pick up the impacts from building material suppliers. Likewise, the region model was used to estimate the employment impacts from Port users, since export manufacturers and wholesale distributors of imports are scattered throughout the basin. However, Port industry employment tends to be concentrated nearer to San Pedro Bay, thus necessitating the use of the Port s Los Angeles I-O model. Population Population impacts attributable to the Project specifically stem from Project jobs filled by inmigrants. To estimate this in-migration, a labor market study (LMS) was prepared by AECOM to examine the local labor market s ability to satisfy the Project s demand for labor (see Appendix F). Since Port industry jobs are spatially concentrated, and thus carry the greatest potential for impacts, the LMS focuses on Los Angeles. The estimates were produced in three steps: 1. Identifying which job sectors in Los Angeles would be unable to supply sufficient workers to fill the new jobs supported by the Project. Jobs in the sectors that are at or projected to reach peak employment levels have the potential to cause in-migration to the Gateway Cities subregion. These impacting project jobs reflect the employment supported by the Project that could cause substantial growth in population and demand for housing within the Gateway Cities. 2. Translating impacting project jobs into Project population. This is done by multiplying impacting project jobs by the quotient of persons per household over workers per household for Los Angeles. 3. Spatially allocating Project population to the Gateway Cities subregion. This is done by multiplying Project population by the percentage of Port-area workers who currently reside in the Gateway Cities subregion. Average persons per household, calculated only for households containing at least one employed person, was found to be 3.03 for Los Angeles ; average workers per household was reported at Dividing the two gives average persons per worker, in this case 2.18, which produces the desired population conversion. These data were taken from the Census Bureau s Percent Public Use Microdata Sample. The percentage of Port-area workers who currently reside in Los Angeles and the Gateway Cities subregion was determined to be 69 percent and 44 percent, respectively (for a detailed discussion as to how these values were determined, please see Appendix F, Pier S Labor Market Study). The assumption is that inmigrants filling Port industry jobs will have the same settlement pattern. PIER S MARINE TERMINAL & BACK CHANNEL IMPROVEMENTS DRAFT EIS/EIR SEPTEMBER 2011

14 For the purposes of determining what may be considered a substantial population impact, recent growth rates, projected growth rates, and a combination of the two were computed. It is typical for a determination of significance to be focused on these rates with the assumption that, if one project is responsible for the entirety of projected annual average population growth, then the project would create a significant impact by increasing density, stressing local services, and creating community-level social impacts. Figure shows the past and projected growth rates for population within the Gateway Cities based on the latest statistics from SCAG (2011). There is a wide range of variation among the Gateway Cities, with annual growth rates (among all time categorizations) ranging generally between 0 and 0.8 percent. When totaled, the past and projected growth rates of the Gateway Cities subregion are all near 0.5 percent, regardless of date range. Housing The LMS referenced above was also the source document for converting unfilled Port industry jobs in Los Angeles into household totals for the Gateway Cities subregion, where most of the Port industry jobs would be located. As was the case with population figures, Census data were taken from the Census Bureau s Percent Public Use Microdata Sample. Average persons per household, calculated only for households containing at least one employed person, was found to be 3.03 for Los Angeles ; average workers per household was reported at Average workers per household is used to derive Project-induced demand for housing units. Specifically, dividing Project population by 1.39 generates total Project households. As is the case for population impacts, recent housing rates, projected housing rates, and a combination of the two were combined to determine what may be considered a substantial housing impact. Figure shows the past and projected rates of household change within the Gateway Cities based on the latest statistics from SCAG (2011). There is a wide range of variation among the individual Gateway Cities, Figure Annual Average Rates of Population Change, Gateway Cities 2.00% 1.80% 1.60% 1.40% 1.20% 1.00% 0.80% 0.60% 0.40% Annual Average Annual Average Annual Average % 0.00% -0.20% Artesia Avalon Bell Bellflower Bell Gardens Cerritos Commerce Compton Cudahy Downey Hawaiian Gardens Huntington Park La Habra Heights Lakewood La Mirada Long Beach Lynwood Maywood Norwalk Paramount Pico Rivera Santa Fe Springs Signal Hill South Gate Vernon Whittier Unincorporated TOTAL Source: SCAG 2011 PIER S MARINE TERMINAL & BACK CHANNEL IMPROVEMENTS DRAFT EIS/EIR SEPTEMBER 2011

15 Figure Annual Average Rates of Household Change, Gateway Cities 2.00% 1.80% 1.60% 1.40% 1.20% 1.00% 0.80% 0.60% 0.40% Annual Average Annual Average Annual Average % 0.00% -0.20% Artesia Avalon Bell Bellflower Bell Gardens Cerritos Commerce Compton Cudahy Downey Hawaiian Gardens Huntington Park La Habra Heights Lakewood La Mirada Long Beach Lynwood Maywood Norwalk Paramount Pico Rivera Santa Fe Springs Signal Hill South Gate Vernon Whittier Unincorporated TOTAL Source: SCAG 2011 with annual growth rates again ranging between 0 and 0.8 percent. When totaled, the past and projected growth of the Gateway Cities subregion is between 0.39 and 0.44 percent, depending on date range Three-Berth Alternative Construction Impacts Impact SOCIO-1: The Project would not induce a substantial decrease in area employment, either directly or indirectly. Construction of the Project would generate 1,589 direct, indirect, and induced jobs in the five-county region and would not result in a decrease in area employment. The construction jobs created by the Proposed Project would be a net increase for the region and would not induce a substantial decrease in area employment. Therefore, impacts on employment would be less than significant under NEPA. As impacts on employment would be less than Impacts on employment would be less than Impact SOCIO-2: The Project would not induce substantial population growth in an area, either directly or indirectly. Given the temporary nature of construction industry jobs, the relatively large regional construction industry, and the recent surplus of construction sector labor caused by the economic downturn in construction, it is likely that the labor force from within the region would be sufficient to complete the construction without a substantial influx of new workers and their families and that relocation within the region would be minimal. Therefore, new construction employment generated by the Project would not impact population in the region. PIER S MARINE TERMINAL & BACK CHANNEL IMPROVEMENTS DRAFT EIS/EIR SEPTEMBER 2011

16 CEQA Impact Determination It is likely that most of the anticipated construction workers already reside in the larger region and would not migrate to the area and increase the population. Therefore, impacts on population as a result of Project construction would be less than significant under CEQA. As impacts on population would be less than Impacts on population would be less than Since it is likely that the Project would mainly draw from construction workers who already reside in the larger region, there would not be a large influx of construction workers to the area. Therefore, impacts on population as a result of Project construction would be less than significant under NEPA. As impacts on population would be less than Impacts on population would be less than Impact SOCIO-3: The Project would not induce a substantial increase in area housing, either directly or indirectly. Given the temporary nature of construction industry jobs and the relatively large regional construction industry, it is likely that the labor force from within the region would be sufficient to complete the construction without an influx of new workers and their families and that relocation within the region would be minimal. Therefore, any change in housing demand would also be minimal. CEQA Impact Determination There would be less-than-significant impacts on housing demand in the region as a result of Project construction spending. The construction labor force in the region would be sufficient to complete the construction projects without workers migrating to the region. Therefore, no new housing units would be necessary and the construction spending would not impact housing demand. Impacts would be less than significant under CEQA. As impacts on housing would be less than Impacts on housing would be less than Since it is likely that the Project would mainly draw from construction workers who already reside in the larger region, there would not be a large influx of construction workers to the area. Therefore, no new housing units would be necessary and the construction spending would not impact housing demand. Impacts would be less than significant under NEPA. As impacts on housing would be less than Impacts on housing would be less than Operational Impacts Impact SOCIO-4: The Project would not induce a substantial decrease in area employment, either directly or indirectly. PIER S MARINE TERMINAL & BACK CHANNEL IMPROVEMENTS DRAFT EIS/EIR SEPTEMBER 2011

17 Employment projections were provided by the Port for four different alternatives, including the Proposed Project. The Project would result in approximately 28,020 jobs in 2013, 40,409 jobs in 2020, and 31,568 jobs in As explained in the methodology section above, operationsrelated jobs decline in the outer years due to a combination of gains in labor productivity and terminal throughput reaching capacity. The Proposed Project would create 28,020 additional jobs in 2013 in the five-county region, and would create 31,568 jobs in 2030 in the fivecounty region. This represents an increase in employment and the Proposed Project would not induce a substantial decrease in area employment. Therefore, impacts on regional employment would be less than significant under NEPA. As impacts on employment would be less than Impacts on employment would be less than Impact SOCIO-5: The Project would not induce substantial population growth in an area, either directly or indirectly. The Proposed Project would create a rise in employment within the five-county region. Most of these are Port user jobs, many of which are in manufacturing sectors that would not be filled by in-migrants because there is surplus labor in these sectors. Moreover, these jobs would be scattered throughout the region and would not represent a burden for any one subarea if inmigration were to occur. For the Port industry jobs that the Proposed Project would create, the LMS is used to estimate the in-migration of workers and families into Los Angeles and the Gateway Cities subregion. In 2013, under the Proposed Project, 794 jobs would be filled by workers from outside Los Angeles, resulting in 1,194 additional residents in the. Approximately 761 new residents would migrate into the Gateway Cities subregion. By 2020, the number of new residents in the Gateway Cities subregion would be approximately 1,140 over existing conditions. By 2030, the number of new residents in the Gateway Cities subregion would be 870. At the highest peak of employment and in-migration modeled (2020), the additional population in the Gateway Cities subregion would represent approximately a 0.05 percent increase within the Gateway Cities subregion at projected 2020 population levels, and 0.05 percent compared to a 2008 baseline population level. CEQA Impact Determination There would be no significant impact anticipated from the additional population entering the Gateway Cities subregion as a result of the Proposed Project. For year 2020, when inmigration peaks, the number of in-migrants represents about 0.05 percent of the baseline population, or about one-tenth of the average annual increase in population in the Gateway Cities subregion. Therefore, impacts on population would be nominal and less than significant under CEQA. As impacts on population would be less than Impacts on population would be less than There would be no significant impact anticipated from the additional population entering the Gateway Cities subregion as a result of the Proposed Project. The increase in additional population in the Gateway Cities subregion relative to the 2008 baseline population PIER S MARINE TERMINAL & BACK CHANNEL IMPROVEMENTS DRAFT EIS/EIR SEPTEMBER 2011

18 represents about one-tenth of the average annual increase in population, which is a nominal increase. Therefore, impacts would be less than significant under NEPA. As impacts on population would be less than Impacts on population would be less than Impact SOCIO-6: The Project would not induce a substantial increase in area housing, either directly or indirectly. The Proposed Project would create a rise in employment within the five-county region. However, since the preponderance of these jobs are Port users, many of which are in manufacturing sectors that have sufficient existing labor supply, in-migration is expected to be minimal and the need for housing correspondingly in For the Port industry jobs that the Proposed Project would create, the LMS is used to estimate the in-migration of workers and families into Los Angeles and the Gateway Cities subregion, resulting in increases in population and housing need. In 2013, under the Proposed Project, 794 jobs would be filled by workers from outside Los Angeles, resulting in 394 new households in the. Approximately 251 new households would be established in the Gateway Cities subregion. By 2020, the number of new households in the Gateway Cities subregion would be approximately 376 over existing conditions. By 2030, the number of new households in the Gateway Cities subregion would be 287. At the highest peak of employment and in-migration modeled (2020), the additional households in the Gateway Cities subregion would represent a 0.06 percent increase within the Gateway Cities subregion at projected 2020 household levels, and 0.06 percent compared to a 2008 baseline household level. The latest U.S. Census data suggest that nearly 27,000 vacant housing units are available within the Gateway Cities subregion. CEQA Impact Determination The additional households that would require housing units in the Gateway Cities subregion would compose nearly 0.06 percent of the total number of households in the years 2008, 2013, and 2020, with rates less than 0.06 percent in This is considered a nominal increase. Additionally, the latest U.S. Census data suggest that ample vacant housing is available in the Gateway Cities subregion to absorb the need for additional housing. Therefore, impacts on housing demands in the Gateway Cities subregion would be less than significant under CEQA. As impacts on housing would be less than Impacts on housing would be less than The additional households that would require housing units in the Gateway Cities subregion due to the project would be 0.06 percent of the existing baseline, and would compose only 0.06 percent of the total number of households in the years 2013 and 2020, with rates less that 0.02 percent in This is a nominal increase. Additionally, the latest U.S. Census data suggest that ample vacant housing is available in the Gateway Cities subregion to absorb the need for additional housing. Therefore, impacts on housing demands in the Gateway Cities subregion would be less than significant under NEPA. As impacts on housing would be less than PIER S MARINE TERMINAL & BACK CHANNEL IMPROVEMENTS DRAFT EIS/EIR SEPTEMBER 2011