The Geopolitics of the European Refugee crisis. Professor Brad K. Blitz 25 November 2016

Transcription

1 The Geopolitics of the European Refugee crisis Professor Brad K. Blitz 25 November 2016

2 The Mediterranean 5,445 Deaths ,049 Deaths 3, ,524 Deaths 415

3 Body count 2016 more than 3930 people have died at sea during current refugee crisis. 20 per cent increase on Since 2000 more than 13,000 died along the European frontiers in Mediterranean sea, and through the Atlantic Ocean towards Spain. Many more died in transit to cross Sahara desert in order to reach Europe

4 Europe today Based on projects and observations Will focus on public opinion data to understand both how refugee policy is communicated and; to identify ways in which human, dignified and legal policies can be anchored

5 Historical antecedents Cold War fusion Post Cold War diffusion 9/11 new security paradigm Reordering of refugee & asylum policy

6 Contemporary refugee policy What we ve seen so far and will hear European discord amidst security concerns Internalisation v externalisation Nationalisation and segmentation of policy Profiling and asylum recognition Refugees as a fifth column

7 Interests and definitions fluid Before the death of Alan Kurdi, many of those sampled believed their countries should be more generous towards asylum seekers. Surveys post summer 2015 record a similar pattern. Yet, the framing of survey questions problematic In some countries refugees are identified with particular groups e.g. Ukrainians in Poland; so possible cultural explanations for generosity.

8 Public support for asylum Public opinion surveys call for less restrictions Amnesty International, the European Social Survey, Pew Global Attitudes Survey across EU and world Majority actively support the principle of asylum and believe their governments should do more to help refugees. Amnesty - 73% agreed people fleeing war or persecution should be able to take refuge

9 Amnesty Welcome Index 2016 Global survey of more than 27,000 people Ranks 27 countries across all continents Rankings based on people s willingness to let refugees live in their countries, towns, neighbourhoods and homes

10 European Social Survey Periodic selected states and modules Representative (aged 15 and over) resident within private households in each country All countries aim for a minimum 'effective achieved sample size' of 1,500 or 800 ESS 7 sample 28, 221; Austria, Belgium, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Germany, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Ireland, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Sweden, Slovenia

11 Pew Global Attitudes Survey 2016 Representative sampling aged 18+ Telephone and face-to-face surveys Sample 1000 in each country Australia, Germany, France, India, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Sweden, UK, USA.

12 Refugees Welcome (Amnesty 2016)

13 Public disapproval European countries overwhelmingly disapprove of EU dealing with refugee issue Highest levels of disapproval from Greeks (94%), Swedes (88%) and Italians (77%) Strongest support for EU management of the refugee crisis was in the Netherlands, with 31% approval.

14 Should your country do more? (Amnesty 2016)

15 Government should be generous judging applications for refugee status (ESS 2015) 7,8 2,2 9,9 Agree strongly Agree 21,6 Neither agree nor disagree 32 Disagree Disagree strongly 26,4 Refused/No Answer

16 Public disapproval

17 Allow many/few immigrants from poorer countries in Europe (ESS 2015) Allow many to come and live here Allow some Allow a few Allow none Refused/Don't Know/NA

18 Attitudes towards migration Attitudes towards poor, non-white, and non- Christian migrants are not significant European publics overwhelmingly prefer to admit educated populations who speak their language & committed to their way of life.

19 Education and immigration (ESS 2015) How Imporant Are Good Educational Qualifications for Immigration? % Respondents

20 Migration & refugees similar results Public attitudes towards migration and refugees are in fact not that different In abstract terms people are generally more likely to want immigration levels in their countries to either stay at their present levels or to be increased rather than to see immigration levels decrease But there is greater hostility towards Syrian and Iraqi refugees.

21 Allow many or few Muslims to come and live in country (ESS 2015) 2,9 13,2 Allow many to come and live here 20,3 Allow some 28,7 35 Allow a few Allow none Refused/Don't know/na

22 Value of datasets The recent datasets are informative because, not only do they put on record division between elected officials & their public, but also present complex picture of contemporary views regarding basic human rights. The views of the European public are more nuanced that official policy would suggest.

23 Why so little impact? In spite of impressive sampling, elaborate methods, and wide dissemination few commentators have sought to explain why this information has yet to take hold Why is this evidence not being used to press the case for a refashioning of humanitarian and asylum policy which is more tolerant and more generous in line with public demand?

24 Refugees seen as immigrants Refugees and migrants separate provisions in law But narrative of immigration is being used to undermine the universal right to asylum & relevance of persecution criteria Questions asked about the place of refugees and asylum seekers in the cultural consensus (will they integrate) and their value or merit (potential economic contribution) to the host state.

25 Refugees source of antagonism At the heart of this argument is a claim that certain refugees are different Refugees source of cultural antagonism Muslim refugees, in particular, a fifth column View sustained by the recent terror attacks in Paris, Brussels, Egypt and Istanbul.

26 Dominance of human capital thinking Central to the merit based argument is claim that refugees from low skilled countries with limited skills are less desirable Refugees from South add little to knowledge economies unlike previous flows Bias contrasts with explicitly racist argument regarding cultural integration but nonetheless discriminates against certain groups.

27 Foreign policy justifications Donor preferences e.g. aid not asylum illustrate repoliticisation of aid quid pro quo Also presents opportunity for geopolitical buffering c.f. Palestinian case in Lebanon. Introduction of mobility agreements in developing countries where states receive aid in return for refugees e.g. Turkey, Ethiopia, Morocco, reframes humanitarian policy as another facet of security policy. This de-emphasises the rights-based logic underlying refugee protection and humanitarian goals (e.g. EU Turkey deal; discourses regarding Libya).

28 Normalisation of border controls Extra-territorialisation of border control e.g offshore processing (Australia-Nauru-Papua New Guinea) and the deployment of asylum/ immigration officers in third countries, enables states to extend their claims to jurisdiction and hence also management of asylum This in turn informs political discourse on alternatives to refugee protection, especially safe passage.

29 Net effect The creation of a new discourse antagonistic towards the idea of refugee protection. Downplays right to asylum Places security and economic value over human rights to seek protection

30 4mi

31 Two Sub-Sytems Italy Greece

32 Trends Italy 2015 Greece April 2016

33 Stocks People left Behind Onward Movements Greece April 2016

34 EVI-MED Objectives: 1. Creation of evidence base on the profiles, routes, experiences and plans of individual migrants; 2. Compilation of a synthetic database of migration trends and characteristics; 3. Mapping of the reception systems ; 4. Analysis of the dynamics of the migration process across the Mediterranean.

35 Research Questions What are the characteristics of migration flows across the Mediterranean? How are these changing? What are the different profiles, motivations, and experiences of those who migrate to Europe? How do migrants make their often complex and dangerous journeys? What is the impact of government policies on migration decisions and experiences along the route? What are the migrants' experiences of arrival in the Mediterranean (including reception, assistance, pathways towards the rest of Europe)? What is the nature of international, national and local multi-agency systems of reception?

36 Initial Findings Survey at early stage but note changes in composition, increased presence of women and children Motivations mixed safety and search for future education of children paramount Impact of government policies repression; exclusion; liminality, illegality & absorption Differentiated internal flows and division based on nationality/ deserving/undeserving of protection Reception conditions vary significantly

37 Reception Sites in Greece

38 Food and Health

39 Protection and Wash

40 Communication - Information

41 Athens Eleonas Elliniko

42 Central Greece Ritsona Thermopiles

43 Central Macedonia Cherso Divata

44 Unofficial Camps Victoria Square Eidomeni

45 Conclusion Post post-cold War era characterised by the reconnecting of security and humanitarian policy. In spite of public sympathy, European governments appear out of sync and have pressed ahead with policies that run counter to public demands. Structural shifts and normative developments have culminated in a discourse that undermines the universal right to seek asylum.

46 Recommendations Human rights actors must work with UNHCR and partners to challenge the nature of the above discourse. Dedicated media campaign and further support for events and grassroots messaging e.g. Refugees Welcome. Challenging efforts to normalise illegal and inhumane practices through coordinated information campaign Create new moral argument

47 Recommendations (cont.) Identify and document how restrictive asylum policies fail to advance foreign policy interests. Evidence persecution by sharing information with the press and government agencies on the nature of claims by those currently considered ineligible for refugee protection as part of a wider campaign of information and inclusion.

48 Recommendations (cont.) Engage with minority and in particular Muslim communities is necessary to redress public concerns regarding the possibility of cultural integration in the host country. Clarify rights of refugees and migrants in line with UNHCR guidelines European and national law to hold governments to account and to ensure that all - irrespective of their skills status, nationality or religion - are given the opportunity to seek asylum.