POVERTY AND PROGRESS IN NEW YORK II: Crime, Welfare Enrollment, and Economic Conditions Six Months into the de Blasio Administration

Transcription

1 Civic Report No. 92 September 2014 POVERTY AND PROGRESS IN NEW YORK II: Crime, Welfare Enrollment, and Economic Conditions Six Months into the de Blasio Administration Published by Manhattan Institute Stephen Eide Senior Fellow, Manhattan Institute C S L L CENTER FOR STATE AND LOCAL LEADERSHIP AT THE MANHATTAN INSTITUTE

2 Cover image: New York City Subway Map Metropolitan Transportation Authority. Used with permission.

3 Executive Summary New York City s resurgence over the past three decades has been characterized by greater fiscal stability, less crime, less dependence on cash welfare, and sustained economic growth. In many ways, these gains have been shared across all neighborhoods, rich and poor alike. However, because income gains, measured proportionately, have accrued more greatly to affluent households, Mayor Bill de Blasio has asserted that New York has become a tale of two cities and has pledged to improve incomes and quality of life for the least well-off. This paper, the second installment in the Manhattan Institute s Poverty and Progress in New York series, seeks to gauge the extent to which the Mayor s policies are improving conditions in the city s poorest neighborhoods. Neighborhoods examined are: Mott Haven and Hunts Point (Bronx Community Districts 1 and 2); Brownsville, Coney Island, and East New York (Brooklyn Community Districts 16, 13, and 5); East Harlem and Central Harlem (Manhattan Community Districts 11 and 10); Elmhurst and Jackson Heights (Queens Community Districts 4 and 3); and Stapleton (Staten Island Community District 1). Key Findings Six months into the de Blasio administration, many categories of crime are down, but shootings are up 8 percent. It is unknown whether the latter indicates a temporary aberration or is a sign that New York City s decades-long crime decline has plateaued or reversed course. In all the precincts driving the increase in shootings, the usage of stop, question, and frisk is down dramatically, by as much as 99 percent on a year-over-year basis. The police department has been able, in past years, to drive crime down while also relying less on this tactic. However, the possibility of a correlation between fewer stops and more crime merits close scrutiny; the recent drop in stops from the last year of the Bloomberg administration and the first year of the de Blasio administration is much more dramatic than previous years declines. The citywide shooting uptick reflects not only certain precincts becoming more dangerous but also other precincts not becoming significantly safer. Four out of the ten poorest neighborhoods in the five boroughs saw shootings increase, accounting for a full three-quarters of the increase citywide. For the first six months of 2014, welfare enrollment is generally down, both citywide and in the ten poorest neighborhoods in the five boroughs. This goes for all three major programs: Cash Assistance, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), and Medicaid. In the Bronx, the city s poorest borough, unemployment is down while job growth and permitting activity are up, compared with the first six months of Mayor Bloomberg s final year in office. Poverty and Progress in New York II

4 About the Author Stephen D. Eide is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute s Center for State and Local Leadership. He edits PublicSectorInc.org (@PubSectorInc), a project of the Manhattan Institute, and is also a contributor to the site. His work focuses on public administration, public finance, political theory, and urban policy. He was previously a senior research associate at the Worcester Regional Research Bureau, and holds a bachelor s degree from St. John s College in Santa Fe, N.M., and a Ph.D. in political philosophy from Boston College. Civic Report 92 September 2014

5 CONTENTS Introduction Crime Welfare Enrollment Economic Conditions Conclusion Endnotes Poverty and Progress in New York II

6 Civic Report 92 September 2014

7 Poverty and Progress in New York II: Crime, Welfare Enrollment, and Economic Conditions Six Months into the de Blasio Administration Stephen Eide INTRODUCTION Poverty and Progress in New York II provides an early assessment of how much progress Mayor Bill de Blasio has made on his pledge to end the tale of two cities. It examines crime, welfare enrollment, and economic conditions in the poorest neighborhoods in the five boroughs. CRIME In the first half of 2014, murders and crime overall are down citywide, but shootings are up (Figure 1). The New York Police Department (NYPD) claims that the uptick in shootings, at this early stage, should not be cause for alarm. 1 Mayor Figure 1: Crime in New York City, January June 2014 % Change, Year to Date ( ) Murder -10.5% Rape -9.9% Robbery -11.1% Felony Assault 1.4% Burglary 4.8% Total Crimes -2.9% Shooting Victims 10.3% Shooting Incidents 8.1% Source: NYPD (through June 29, 2014) Poverty and Progress in New York II 1

8 Figure 2: Stops and Murders, , Stops 700, , , , , , ,000 Stops Murders Murders 0 0 Source: NYPD and NYCLU.org Precinct Figure 3: Change in Stops among Precincts with Significant Shooting Rate Increases, January June, 2013 v January June, 2014 Shootings January June, 2013 # change % change January June, 2014 Stops January June, 2013 # change % change 69 (Canarsie) % 19 2,260-2,241-99% 47 (Northeast Bronx) % 76 1,106-1,030-93% 75 (East New York) % 84 2,247-2,163-96% 67 (East Flatbush) % 277 2,093-1,816-87% 25 (East Harlem) % % 46 (Morris Heights) % % City % 27, , ,379-83% Source: NYPD and NYCLU.org Civic Report 92 2 Bloomberg saw murders rise four times, including during his first year in office, 2 despite declining to record lows by the end of his third term. Annual shootings increased five times under Bloomberg. 3 Questions have also been raised about whether the recent shooting spike was caused by restrictions placed on the NYPD s use of the stop, question, and frisk tactic. 4 At one point the NYPD claimed to be investigating this question, 5 but more recently it said that there is almost no direct correlation. 6 For years, stop, question, and frisk was central to the NYPD s proactive policing strategy, which focused on preventing crimes before they occurred. Usage grew dramatically over the last decade, peaking in 2011 (Figure 2), before beginning to decline during the final Bloomberg years. September 2014 The possibility that shootings, in particular, have increased because of fewer stops is an especially serious charge, given that the tactic removed thousands of guns off the streets, including some used in crimes. Only 397 guns were recovered last year, compared with 819 in 2011, according to the NYPD and New York Civil Liberties Union (NYCLU). Critics of stop and frisk point out that restrictions on Figure 4: Annual Decline in Stops, Source: NYPD and NYCLU.org # Change % Change ,813-22% ,060-64% January June 2013 v. January June ,379-83%

9 the tactic did not prevent the NYPD from driving down crime in both and In 2013, there were 335 murders, the fewest since the early 1960s. (Murders, unlike shootings, are down in 2014, too.) At the same time, all the precincts contributing most to the city s higher shooting rate have seen significant drops in stops (Figure 3). It should also be noted that, expressed as a percentage, the recent decline in stop, question, and frisk ( ) has been much more dramatic than the decline during the end of Mayor Bloomberg s term (Figure 4). Just because a 25 percent decline in stops failed to cause crime to rise does not mean that the 83 percent decrease from last year to this year will have no harmful effects. It is also conceivable that crime could have fallen further were stop, question, and frisk not curtailed. The uptick in shootings should be understood as reflecting both a rise in certain areas and insufficient decline in others. Throughout New York s long crime decline, good news citywide frequently masked precinct-level spikes, as stats reflecting increased crime in certain precincts were outweighed by even greater decreases elsewhere. Such offsetting precincts were often high-crime areas; crime numbers in safe areas were too low to exert much pull on the overall stats. For example, in 2002, murders in Precinct 47 in the north Bronx (one of 2014 s problem precincts) rose 41 percent over the previous year (17 to 24). But murders declined 36 percent (22 to 14) in Precinct 32 in Harlem and 39 percent (26 to 16) in Brownsville. As a consequence of these and other parallel changes, murders in 2002 fell 10 percent citywide. Such countervailing pressure is absent, for shootings, in Public safety poses a special challenge for the de Blasio administration, in light of its professed commitment to end the tale of two cities. Many of the city s poorest neighborhoods, said to have been left behind during New York City s revival over the last two decades, rank among its most dangerous. Figures 5 and 6 show the ten poorest community districts in the five boroughs and their year-to-date crime changes. Four out of the ten saw an increase in shooting incidents, accounting for three-quarters (29 of 39) of the citywide increase in the first half of WELFARE ENROLLMENT During his mayoral campaign, then-candidate Bill de Blasio pledged, if elected, to work relentlessly to expand enrollment for eligible households to income and food assistance programs, reduce bureaucratic barriers, and advocate for expanded support from the state and federal government. 8 Since taking office, Human Resources Administration (HRA) commissioner Steven Banks has waived federal work requirements for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) in order to maximize[e] access and stimulate the local economy. 9 He has also worked to reduce bureaucratic obstacles that, he claims, prevent cash assistance from reaching qualifying individuals as expeditiously as possible, ramped up outreach efforts, and made it official HRA policy that welfare recipients may count enrollment in a fouryear college program toward meeting their work requirements. 10 The de Blasio administration does not advocate or envision a net increase in cash assistance enrollment, projecting a 12,000 decrease in monthly enrollment, on average, for fiscal year HRA has launched a comprehensive review of all policies and procedures to enable New Yorkers to remain off of the Cash Assistance caseload. Banks has said that whatever growth may result from easier access to benefits will be offset by more effective employment programs that lead to stable jobs. In other words, despite reversing course from the Bloomberg administration s approach to welfare, de Blasio seems not to expect enrollment numbers to trend differently. So far, this has been the case. In the first six months of 2014, citywide and in the poorest neighborhoods in the five boroughs, enrollment was generally down in all three of the city s major social Poverty and Progress in New York II 3

10 Community district Bronx #1 (Mott Haven) Bronx #2 (Hunts Point) Brooklyn #16 (Brownsville, Ocean Hill) Brooklyn #13 (Coney Island) Brooklyn #5 (East New York) Manhattan #11 (East Harlem) Manhattan #10 (Central Harlem) Queens #4 (Elmhurst, Corona) Queens #3 (Jackson Heights) Staten Island #1 (Stapleton) Source: NYPD Figure 5: Change in Murders and Shootings, Poorest Neighborhoods in the Five Boroughs, Median household income Precinct(s) January June 2014 January June 2013 Murders # Change % Change January June 2014 Shooting Incidents January June 2013 # Change % Change $20, % % $20, % % $27, % % $29, % % $31, % % $31, and % % $36, and % % $44, % % $46, % % $57, % % Community district Bronx #1 (Mott Haven) Bronx #2 (Hunts Point) Brooklyn #16 (Brownsville, Ocean Hill) Brooklyn #13 (Coney Island) Brooklyn #5 (East New York) Manhattan #11 (East Harlem) Manhattan #10 (Central Harlem) Queens #4 (Elmhurst, Corona) Queens #3 (Jackson Heights) Staten Island #1 (Stapleton) Figure 6: Change in Total Crime, Poorest Neighborhoods in the Five Boroughs, Median household income Precinct(s) January June 2014 Total Crime January June 2013 # Change % Change $20, % $20, % $27, % $29, % $31, % $31, and % $36, and % $44, % $46, % $57, % Civic Report 92 4 September 2014 Source: NYPD; Total Crime includes murder, rape, robbery, felony assault, burglary, grand larceny, and grand larceny auto

11 Community District Figure 7: Medicaid Enrollment, January June 2014 January June #Change %Change Bronx 1 58,827 54,965-3, % Bronx 2 30,795 28,553-2, % Brooklyn 5 92,189 85,221-6, % Brooklyn 13 48,892 46,595-2, % Brooklyn 16 47,254 43,879-3, % Manhattan 10 46,971 43,360-3, % Manhattan 11 55,550 52,224-3, % Queens 3 74,528 68,615-5, % Queens 4 78,804 73,073-5, % Staten Island 1 55,628 51,613-4, % City 2,932,388 2,715, , % Source: Human Resources Administration (HRA) welfare programs: Medicaid, SNAP, and Cash Assistance (Figure 7, Figure 8, and Figure 9). ECONOMIC CONDITIONS The Bronx is New York City s poorest borough. 12 Its job numbers and property values have grown over recent decades but at rates slower than the other boroughs (Figure 10 and Figure 11). Despite the Bronx s density and proximity to Manhattan, gentrification has been slower to arrive than to Harlem and parts of Brooklyn. However, that could be changing. A recent report by Ariel Property Advisors found that, during the first half of 2014, the South Bronx accounted for Community District Figure 8: SNAP Enrollment, January June 2014 January June #Change %Change Bronx 1 44,715 43,441-1, % Bronx 2 22,823 22, % Brooklyn 5 65,556 61,274-4, % Brooklyn 13 31,177 30, % Brooklyn 16 37,136 35,045-2, % Manhattan 10 34,764 33, % Manhattan 11 42,043 41,027-1, % Queens 3 30,973 29,150-1, % Queens 4 30,683 28,804-1, % Staten Island 1 37,668 36,184-1, % City 1,678,819 1,614,766-64, % Source: HRA Community District January June #Change %Change Bronx 1 11,503 11, % Bronx 2 6,555 6, % Brooklyn 5 14,538 14, % Brooklyn 13 3,875 3, % Brooklyn 16 11,008 10, % Manhattan 10 7,638 7, % Manhattan 11 8,709 8, % Queens 3 3,210 2, % Queens 4 2,749 2, % Staten Island 1 9,533 9, % City 321, ,480-9, % Source: HRA Figure 9: Cash Assistance Enrollment, January June 2014 Figure 10: Job Growth by Borough, % 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 17.7% 19.2% 19.3% 21.0% 33.7% Bronx Queens Brooklyn Manha an Staten Island Source: New York State Department of Labor (NYS DOL) Poverty and Progress in New York II 5

12 Figure 11: Total Market Value by Borough, (millions) Bronx Manhattan Queens Brooklyn Staten Island 1994 $21,735 $115,686 $78,905 $61,920 $22, $31,636 $167,675 $127,371 $101,293 $38, $53,648 $339,531 $206,783 $200,326 $57,815 Change, % 193% 162% 224% 162% Source: New York City Department of Finance Figure 12: January June Building Permit Issuance in the Bronx, New Permits Issued 6,600 6,400 6,200 6,000 5,800 5,600 5,400 5,200 5,000 4,800 Jan-Jun 2009 Jan-Jun 2010 Jan-Jun 2011 Jan-Jun 2012 Jan-Jun 2013 Jan-Jun 2014 Source: New York City Department of Buildings nearly half of the borough s real-estate transactions (124 properties, $480 million). The Bronx also has 1.6 million square feet of retail development planned or under construction. 13 The number of new building permits issued throughout the first six months of the year has been gradually on the rise, too (Figure 12). Under Mayor de Blasio, economic conditions in the Bronx continued to trend positive, showing improvements over this period last year (Figure 13, Figure 14, and Figure 15). Figure 13: Bronx County, Jobs, and Unemployment Rate, January June 2014 Jobs 510, , , , , , , , , , ,000 January February March April May June Unemployment Rate (%) Jobs Unemployment Rate Civic Report 92 September 2014 Source: NYS DOL; data are not seasonally-adjusted 6

13 Figure 14: Bronx County Jobs, January June 2013 v. January June , , ,000 Jobs 495, , , ,000 January February March April May June 2014 Jobs 2013 Jobs Source: NYS DOL Figure 15: Bronx County Unemployment Rate, January 2013 v. January 2014 Unemployment Rate (%) January February March April May June 2014 Unemployment Rate 2013 Unemployment Rate Source: NYS DOL; data are not seasonally-adjusted CONCLUSION Conditions under the de Blasio administration, after its first six months, appear broadly similar to those inherited under the Bloomberg administration. Judged simply on the raw data on crime, welfare, and economic conditions, it would be impossible to determine which mayor was in power. Stated differently, if the de Blasio administration has sought to improve life in New York s poor neighborhoods whether measured by income, public safety, education, or other metrics it has yet to show progress. The administration has, however, initiated a number of key new policies regarding, in particular, eligibility for public assistance, housing, and education. In future installments, this series will track the extent to which such policies are reflected in the critical socio-economic indicators under scrutiny. Poverty and Progress in New York II 7

14 Endnotes 1 Azi Paybarah, Bratton on the NYPD s Summer All Out program, Capital New York, July 7, Police Commissioner Bratton: So far this year, there has been an increase in the number of shooting incidents but I d point out, going back to 1993, the overall trend is down and I would anticipate, based on that experience, that going forward in this year we would continue to see a decrease... I do not anticipate at the end of the year to have an increase, but if we do I don t think it s going to be so significant as to be of concern or that the sky is falling or that the good old bad days are coming back again... This is an incredibly safe city and remains so. I know there s a lot of attention paid to the increase in shootings that the city s in crisis... [that] this is starting to get out of control. Not at all... This is nothing new. As you can see, in years past we ve had years homicides went up, years when shootings went up. The city didn t fall apart. It wasn t the end of the world. We addressed it and the next year it went down... So, my anticipation is that the continuing overall crime decline in the city will continue , , , , , , , New Yorkers deserve to live in a safe city. The rash of gun violence this weekend, leaving three dead and many others wounded, should serve as a wake-up call to Mayor de Blasio and his administration... These shootings contradict two decades of crime reduction in our city and make the strongest case for bringing back stop, question, and frisk. Councilmember Eric Ulrich, quoted in Len Levitt, Worried About Crime? Just Follow the Numbers, am New York, July 7, Stop-and-Frisk and Risk, New York Daily News, August 16, Will Bredderman, Jumaane Williams to Media: Don t Link Stop-and-Frisk to Shooting Spike, New York Observer, June 30, Thomas Repetto: We don t have a citywide epidemic like we did 20 years ago, but we re having problems in pockets of the city such as the housing projects... I want to hear a firm declaration that proactive policing will be employed... Proactive policing means stop the criminal before he can commit a crime. Tina Moore, Homicides Are Down, but Shootings Are Up Citywide over 2013, New York Daily News, June 9, State Sen. Martin Golden: Thank God these guys are bad shots and thank God for our trauma rooms that keep these [victims] alive. If we don t do stop-and-frisk, there will be more shootings and there will be more death. Dana Sauchelli, Frank Rosario, and Bruce Golding, 15 People Shot in Less than 12 hours in NYC, New York Post, June 29, Pervaiz Shallwani, NYPD Studies Frisk-Decline Consequences, Wall Street Journal, June 25, Yoni Bashan, Bratton Says Gun Violence Remains Low, Wall Street Journal, August 18, Stop-and-Frisk During the Bloomberg Administration ( ), New York Civil Liberties Union, August One New York, Rising Together, Bill de Blasio for Mayor, July 2013, p According to the US Department of Agriculture, every $1 of SNAP assistance creates $1.80 of economic activity. Human Resources Administration Commissioner Banks Announces Reforms to Fight Poverty and Hunger, Prevent Homelessness, Improve Access to Employment, Reduce Unnecessary Bureaucracy, Address Staff Workload, and Avoid Financial Penalties for the City, press release, New York City Human Resources Administration, May 19, Steven Banks Testimony, 2015 Executive Budget Hearing Joint Hearing of the New York City Council Finance and General Welfare Committees, May 19, 2014, pp In 2015, 350,297 persons are projected to receive cash assistance on average each month, a decrease of 12,157 from the projected 2014 average. The City of New York Executive Budget Fiscal Year 2015, Office of Management and Budget, May 8, 2014, p On median household income in the five boroughs, see Poverty and Progress in New York I: Conditions in New York City s Poorest Neighborhoods, Manhattan Institute, Civic Report no. 88 (June 2014), table Bronx 2014 Mid-Year Sales Report, Ariel Property Advisors, July Civic Report 92 8 September 2014

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16 Center for State and Local Leadership Michael Allegretti Director Fellows Rick Baker Daniel DiSalvo Richard C. Dreyfuss Stephen D. Eide Edward Glaeser Nicole Gelinas Steven Malanga Edmund J. McMahon Fred Siegel Jacob Vigdor Marcus A. Winters The Manhattan Institute s Center for State and Local Leadership (CSLL) promotes promising new approaches to reform of state and local government. CSLL works on a broad range of issues, including public sector reform (specifically of pensions and health benefits), education reform, prisoner reentry, policing, public housing, infrastructure, immigration, and public service delivery. By spotlighting new ideas, and providing the research and proposals to inform creative new policies, the CSLL hopes to lay the groundwork for an environment in which commerce, employment, and a rich civic life can flourish. The CSLL operates across the country, working in states such as California, Illinois, and Rhode Island, and cities such as Newark, New Jersey, and Detroit, Michigan. The CSLL s tools include regular writing and research reports by affiliated Manhattan Institute scholars and senior fellows, along with public events and media appearances. The CSLL operates a website devoted to analysis of the implications financial and political of the power wielded by public sector unions and allied elected officials. The CSLL also annually selects and showcases the Manhattan Institute s Urban Innovator Award, which recognizes a state or local leader whose combination of policy creativity and skill at implementation has led to groundbreaking improvements in public service, and the Manhattan Institute s Social Entrepreneurship Awards, which recognize those who identify social needs and take it upon themselves to address them privately. The Manhattan Institute is a 501(C)(3) nonprofit organization. Contributions are taxdeductible to the fullest extent of the law. EIN #