Ideology, Fact Distortion and Policy. A Wildly Overambitious Talk about Atomic Weapons and Crime in the US
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1 Ideology, Fact Distortion and Policy A Wildly Overambitious Talk about Atomic Weapons and Crime in the US
2 After The Manhattan Project 1945 Unless research is free, the US will lose scientific superiority Fermi Strict control of all information related to atomic physics
3 The Oppenheimer Affair 1949: opposes H-bomb development project Recommendation overruled and RO removed from chair of AEA Trial and witch-hunt
4 Public Ignorance and Iraq s WMDs Public documents seized Allusions to atomic power / weapons censored 1971 Morland article; Hansen competition Public ignorance pliability 2003 invasion of Iraq justified by nuclear programme Centrifuge tubes; fabricated yellowcake documents; controlled leaks of speculative information Scientific reports and testimonies suppressed and downplayed by the media under pressure from government
5 Ideological Interference in Science Space exploration Abortion and sex education Public health Stem cells Climate change Resource extraction Evolution Xenophobia Crime
6 Crime in the USA Early 1990s: criminologists predicting a dire increase in crime rates Baby boomers The demographic surge in the next ten years will bring young male criminals who ll make the Bloods and Crips look tame. DiIulio We ve got about six years to turn juvenile crime around or our country is going to be chaos. B. Clinton Just beyond the horizon there lurks a cloud that the winds will soon bring over us. Wilson
7 Crime in the USA
8 Crime in the USA 1993 Half as much violent crime in the US as 25 years ago All categories; not matched in other countries Disclaimer
9 Ideas?
10 Some Popular Theories Mass incarceration Police presence Better police training Broken windows Gun ownership Economic improvement No larcenable cash Personal technology Gentrification Alcohol consumption Psychiatric medication Crack epidemic ends Gangs Aging population Legalisation of abortion Lead contamination White-collar crime
11 Mass Incarceration Intuitive idea: criminals in gaol crime rate falls Plus deterrent effects Inhumane and costly (money, community, ) MI important in the 1980s and 1990s, but no longer Declining marginal benefits Levitt "Incarcerating violent people has a big effect on violence, but most people we incarcerate aren't violent. Also, MI less cost-effective than police and clearly more socially destructive
12 Police Tactics Widely held view in 1990: police do not affect crime Guiliani & Bratton: broken windows & community policing Trends better explained by more police (45% increase NYC) Chicken and egg! Decline nationwide, not just NYC. Other reforms hard to disentangle. CompStat: 5-15% of decrease in crime Targeting and anticipation of trends
13 Gun Ownership More states enact right-to-carry laws during the 1990s John Lott (1997) influential paper
14 Gun Ownership Lott paper now widely debunked No causal link Fiddled results Robbery most connected, but passage more However, the data doesn t support a connexion between gun control laws and crime rates Graph: homicide versus guns
15 Economic Factors Poverty & unemployment crime? Negative correlation: economic growth and crime rate BUT consistently small effect of income negligible for violent crime AND crime continued to fall during recession Probably some small (~2-3%) contribution to drop in property crime
16 Personal Technology Video games and mobile phones Needs more research
17 Gentrification Impoverished inner-city areas see influx of affluent / mobile residents Rents rise; original residents forced out Suggestion: benefits all residents Segregation E.g. Chicago homicide rate 3x NYC But gentrification seems to be rare!
18 Drugs: Alcohol Alcohol: 40% of violent crime under influence Doesn t seem to be much correlation
19 Drugs: Crack Epidemic gang violence 1988: 25% NYC homicides crack Elasticity of drug market? Assuming spike crackdriven, fall accounts for ~6% homicide drop
20 Demographics Crime is a young person s game Baby boomers Rate falls in spite of younger population
21 Legal Abortion 1973: Roe vs Wade. Decline in birth rate ~5% (?) 1994: turning point in crime abortees would be 21 Evidence consistent with other countries However, establishment of abortion clinics took time Rates fell in all age groups (though more in younger) Moreover, rates continue to fall since 2005 Conclusion: could be a key factor. Responsible for 25% of the decline in crime?
22 Lead Exposure Lead demyelination and loss of grey matter Children particularly susceptible Leaded petrol and paint phased out from 1975 onward
23 Other Effects with Small Correlations Gang violence Death penalty Psychiatric medication
24 Conclusion Circuitous route because the talk I wanted to give was much better and thorough than the one I have just given Oppenheimer, ideology, evidence-based policy Modelling and statistics in social science
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