The Life Course of American Eco-Terrorists:

Transcription

1 The Life Course of American Eco-Terrorists: Formal and Informal Organizations Brent L. Smith University of Arkansas Kelly R. Damphousse University of Oklahoma Portions of this research were funded by the National Institute of Justice (Grant Number 2005-IJ-CX-0200) and the National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism in Oklahoma City (Grant Number MIPT ) through the Department of Justice and the Department of Homeland Security. The opinions presented here do not represent the official position of the DOJ, the DHS, the MIPT, or the NIJ.

2 The American Terrorism Study Smith and Damphousse s 25 year study of federally indicted terrorists FBI General crime vs. terrorism investigation Accessible by web queries (

3 The American Terrorism Study

4 The American Terrorism Study

5 The American Terrorism Study Demographic Characteristics Left Wing Right -Wing International Age Average age at indictment: 37 Average age at indictment: 41 Average age at indictment: 36 Sex 20% female 8% female 1% female 80% male 92% male 99% male Race 11% White 54% Black 35% Hispanic 98% White 2% Black 1% Hispanic 79% White 6% Black 14% Hispanic 1% Asian Education 44% college degree 33% high school diploma 24% GED or less 12% college degree 58% high school diploma 31% GED or less 25% college degree 50% high school diploma 26% GED or less Occupation Many inmates, attorneys, y, and college students. Many inmates, unemployed, and electrical engineers. Largest percentage were Libyan Arab Airline employees, and Libyan agents.

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14 Major Temporal and Spatial Dimensions of Terrorism Establishment of Residences Residential Locations May be correlated with other geo- political or census data Recruitment Membership in extremist group Attendance at rallies or demonstrations Exposure to Internet sites Personal recruitment Accessing extremist literature Planning and Preliminary Organization Identification and clarification of roles in group Exposure to terrorism training manuals Discussion of potential targets Drawing schematics Assignment of tasks Preparatory Activities Theft of explosives, detonation cord, or weapons Counterfeiting/ laundering money to support group activities Procurement of false IDs Modifications to semi-automatic weapons to fire automatic Buying of ANFO or other bomb materials such as timers and electrical components Terrorist Incident Bombings Assassinations Ecotage Hostage taking Hoaxes Threats Hijackings Establishment of bomb making labs T 1 Time T 2 T 3 T 4 Time T 5 T 6 T 7 D 1 Distance/Location D 3 D 4, D 5 D 2 Distance/Location D 4,D 5 D 6

15 Project Goals Earlier work indicated the most visible patterns of preparatory behavior occurred among international and environmental terrorists. FBI key significant threats on US soil. Data were collected on 30 international and 28 environmental case studies. Information available on 118 environmental and 55 international incidents. The Oracle 10g database currently contains 935 records of events, information on 621 individuals, and 73 organizations.

16 Data Collection

17 Pre-incident Variables Pre incident Variables e.g., Planning activities - meetings and phone calls

18 Piquero Residence Target 10/18/07 10:00 AM Freilich Residence John Doe #2 Oklahoma Meeting 10/17/07 / 8:00 PM

19 Data Collection Sources for selecting case studies: 1. American Terrorism Database ( ). 2. Suggestions by research team and consultants - Fertile cases

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23 CIRAT Database Development

24 CIRAT Database Development

25 CIRAT Database Development

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27 Data Collection Information on close to 200 variables: Demographic and group characteristics, target information, incident data, addresses of terrorists t and targets, t locations of preparatory crimes, and sequencing of events. Collected from open source documents: Court case documents: dockets, indictments, motions, judgment orders. Collected from: websites, books, magazines, newspaper articles, etc.

28 Variables Demographic- age, sex, education, occupation, income, etc. Spatial- address, city, state, zip Temporal- hour, day, week, month, year Miscellaneous- target type, incident damages & deaths, aliases Data Table Person Event Organization Data Sources Address Affiliations Target Total Number of Variables

29 Data Collection Results Geocoding was performed on 1,430 records of data. Records are geocoded using street address and sometimes zip codes using the Yahoo! Geocoding API. Types of Data Records Collected Records Geocoded Records Geocoded Residence Locations (residences, safe houses) % Antecedent Locations (planning and preparatory acts) % Incident Locations (crimes, travel, surveillance) % Total % *excludes 80 additional activities such as post-incident, communiqués, arrests, etc.

30 Data Collection Results The number and type of pre-cursor behaviors varies by terrorist group type.

31 Major Spatial Findings The spatial patterns of international and environmental terrorists are remarkably similar. Slightly over one half lived within 30 miles of the target.

32 Eugene, OR 3A- Bomb Manufacturing A- Meeting P- Claim of Responsibility Redmond, OR 1A- Surveillance A- Surveillance I- Incident- Firebombing Williams, OR 4A- Bomb Testing N ELF/ALF The Family Cavel West Arson A Antecedent Activity I Incident P Post Incident Activity 50 miles

33 Environmental Terrorists Residences to Incidents Linear Distance Analysis Graphed Ranges 51% are 0-30 miles 9% are miles 8% are miles 8% are miles 24% are miles n = 208 Min: 0.3 miles Max: 2637 miles Mean: 480 Median: 24 Mode: 0.3 Std.dev: 772

34 Environmental Terrorists Residences to Antecedent activities Linear Distance Analysis Graphed Ranges 21% are 0-30 miles 7% are miles 15% are miles 17% are miles 40% are miles n = 156 Min: 0 miles Max: 2638 miles Mean: 700 Median: 483 Mode: 799 Std.dev: d 734

35 Environmental Terrorists Antecedent Activities to Incidents Linear Distance Analysis Graphed Ranges n = 75 65% are 0-30 miles Min: 0 miles 8% are miles Max: 1251 miles 7% are miles Mean: 205 Median: 5.3 7% are miles Mode: 0 13% are miles Std.dev: 410

36 International Terrorists Residences to Incidents Linear Distance Analysis Graphed Ranges 59% are 0-30 miles 17% are miles 8% are miles 12% are miles 4% are miles n = 49 Min: 0.5 miles Max: 1372 miles Mean: 139 Median: 12.5 Mode: 4.6 Std.dev: 308

37 International Terrorists Residences to Antecedent Activities Linear Distance Analysis Graphed Ranges 43% are 0-30 miles 6% are miles 14% are miles 14% are miles 23% are miles n = 351 Min: 0 mile Max: 4042 miles Mean: 469 Median: 98 Mode: 98 Std.dev: dev: 760

38 International Terrorists Antecedent Activities to Incidents Linear Distance Analysis Graphed Ranges n = 78 59% are 0-30 miles Min: 0 miles 9% are miles Max: 2419 miles 1% are miles Mean: % are miles Median: 9.8 7% are miles Mode: 0 Std.dev: 501

39 Temporal Patterns Q: How long is it from the time members are recruited into a terrorist cell before they actually begin conceiving and planning for an incident? Q: How long do terrorist groups plan and prepare before committing a terrorist incident? Q: What days and time of days are commonly associated with terrorist attacks? A: Temporal sequencing of terrorist group planning and actions vary by type of group.

40 Breakdown of Incidents by Day of Week 9/11 n = 236 WTC OKC

41 Breakdown of Incidents by Time of Day RW LW SI INT

42 General Temporal Patterns The temporal patterns of environmental and international terrorists were significantly different. The planning process of environmental terrorists was relatively short and spontaneous. A i t l 85% f th i t d t Approximately 85% of their preparatory conduct occurred within 6 days of the incident.

43 Temporal Analysis: Phineas Priests Temporal Analysis: Phineas Priests March 30, 1996 through October 8, 1996

44 Temporal Analysis: NYC Conspiracy Temporal Analysis: NYC Conspiracy January 3, 1990 through June 24, 1993

45 Temporal Analysis: Earth Liberation Front Daniel Lewis Michael Scarpitti

46 The Extreme Right Turns Violent Bob Mathews declares War in 84 The Order Covenant, Sword and Arm of the Lord (CSA)

47 The Federal Response War in 84 becomes Arrests in 85

48 The Extreme Right Evolves Estes Park, CO meeting (1992) Attempt to minimize civil and criminal liability Leaderless Resistance (Beam) Hierarchical to cellular to uncoordinated violence

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50 ELF / ALF and The Family Previously believed environmental terrorism to be the epitome of lone wolf activity Thought to be characterized by elves engaging in target selection from internet hit lists Indictments in Eugene, Oregon on January 20, 2006 change that perception. Rodgers Gerlach Paul Dibee Overaker Tubbs Rubin Meyerhoff Savoie McGowan Thurston

51 ELF/ALFand The Family Rather than individual id direct actions as commonly believed, these individuals conspired in many of the major acts of eco-terrorism in the U.S. over the past nine years.

52 General Temporal Patterns Hypothesis: Organizational structure will affect the temporal planning cycle in significant ways. Unstructured t violence (leaderless l resistance) vs. The traditional cellular model Traditional environmental direct action groups vs. The Family

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54 Environmental Antecedent Activity y( (excluding ELF Family Activities) Preparatory Planning Ancillary Incident Name Number of Days Before Incident Day Before Incident Day of Incident ALF Capitola ALF Coronado 1 ALF Coronado 2 ALF Ellerman Eco-Raiders 1 Eco Raiders 2 ELF Blair ELF Critter ELF Long Island ELF Schoppert * ELF SLC Totals % Acts from 1 (8%) 2 (15%) 3 (23%) 2 (15%) (8%) 2 (15%) 2 (15%) Inicdent 100% 91% 76% 53% 38% 30% 15%

55 ELF/ALF The Family Antecedent Activities

56 General Temporal Patterns The structure and size of the conspiracy did not affect either the number of preparatory acts or the length of the planning process for environmental terrorists.

57 International Antecedent Activity Preparatory Planning Ancillary Arrest Incident Name Number of Days Before Incident DayBefore Incident Dayof Incident Al Qaeda Reid Japanese Red Army Millennium Conspiracy NYC Subway Bombing PIRA Murray WTC 1993 Omega Seven 1 Omega Seven 2 Omega Seven 3 Egyptian Jihad Haydayet * 3 (3%) 7 ( 8%) 5 ( 5%) 14 (15 %)15 (16 %) 28 (30 %) 2 (2%) 0 4 (4%) 1 (1%) 3 (3%) 1 (1%) 4 (4%) 5 (5%) Totals 97 % 94 % 86% 81% 66% 50 % 20 % 18 % 14% 13% 10 % 9% 5% % Acts from Inicdent

58 General Temporal Patterns The planning process of international terrorists was significantly longer than that of environmental terrorists. International terrorists engaged in a significantly larger number of preparatory activities than environmental terrorists. They engaged in nearly three times as many known antecedent activities per incident as environmental terrorists.

59 For More Information: Brent L. Smith- Professor and Director Terrorism Research Center in Fulbright College Old Main 211, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, Arkansas Kelly Damphousse- Presidential Professor and Associate Dean College of Arts and Sciences University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK