Recommendations A preliminary step for DHS to adapt to the challenges of climate change

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2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OF TASK FORCE FINDINGS Climate change, current and future alike, is expected to affect the severity, frequency, or duration of extreme weather events, droughts, floods, sea-level rise, precipitation patterns, and the spread of life-threatening diseases. The projected impacts of climate change pose both direct and indirect security and resiliency risks to the Nation, core homeland security missions, and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) infrastructure and operations. The direct effects of climate change particularly from intensifying hurricanes and other extreme weather events threaten the economic and physical security of the United States. However, the most significant homeland security impact will be indirect, resulting from climate-driven effects on many countries and their potential to seriously affect U.S. national security interests. In this way, climate change may act as a threat multiplier, aggravating stressors such as poverty, environmental degradation, economic growth, and social tensions that can destabilize human systems and institutions. The Task Force identified three major, cross-cutting risks to DHS in the Southeast and Southwest regions: Migration. Changes in climate are already causing migration and displacement throughout the world. In the near perimeter, future effects of climate change may trigger two major risks to homeland security: mass migration and higher, new normal levels of migration (legal and illegal) to the United States. Infrastructure. Critical Infrastructure and Key Resources (CIKR) and DHS infrastructure are vulnerable to various effects of a changing climate. Climate change will challenge national efforts to protect and ensure the resilience of CIKR and build a robust response capability for DHS operations and domestic disasters. Health. U.S. public health and the well-being of the DHS workforce are vulnerable to the environmental consequences of climate change. Climate change can tip the ecological balance and trigger pandemic the Nation s most overarching health-related security risk and generally increase the spread of diseases. In an increasingly globalized world, the effects of climate change on human health will transcend national borders. The Task Force concluded that risks of climate change are significant and have real implications for homeland security. Therefore, DHS must begin now to plan, prepare for, and adapt to current and future changes in a way that will allow the Department to fulfill its missions and maintain its infrastructure and ability to operate successfully. Recommendations A preliminary step for DHS to adapt to the challenges of climate change 1 Establish a governance structure to provide climate change adaptation leadership, accountability, and coordination. 2 Develop a DHS Climate Change Adaptation Directive to build awareness and provide direction across DHS. Incorporate climate change into strategic planning as one of many cross-cutting drivers that influence current and 3 emerging trends in the DHS mission space. Consider climate change in the Homeland Security National Risk Assessment process as an additional risk to our national 4 strategic interests. Develop analytical and modeling tools, in coordination with other elements of the national security community, to better 5 understand drivers and patterns of migration. Review migration-related authorities and categories to determine the appropriate policies, measures, and procedures for 6 environmentally-induced migrants; current definitions and categories for migrants may not adequately consider streams of people looking for refuge in the United States because of climate-induced reasons. Review current mass migration plans, systems and procedures to ensure the United States is prepared to handle both 7 gradual increases and sudden influxes of environmentally-induced migrants. Address climate change risks to infrastructure: (1) develop and obtain tools/methods to understand the vulnerability of both 8 CIKR and DHS-owned infrastructure and to (2) establish and apply criteria for future DHS capital improvements and investments that build in resilience and consider the impacts of climate change over time. Strengthen key partnerships with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the climate science community, 9 and other Federal, State and local agencies, private sector, and international organizations that are engaged in adaptation efforts which will affect DHS missions and operations. Enhance the Department s ability to respond to repeated or multiple surge demands by building a multi-skilled and 10 resilient workforce. i

3 PROJECT OVERVIEW The DHS Climate Change Adaptation Task Force The DHS Climate Change Adaptation Task Force (Task Force) was established in January 2010 as a broadly representative, intradepartmental group to answer three basic questions: (1) Will impacts of climate change affect DHS? (2) If so, how will DHS be affected? and (3) What, if anything, should the Department do about it? The Task Force conducted extensive research, numerous component- and mission-specific analyses, and convened three fullday workshops to analyze potential risks to DHS missions and operations posed by climate change and its effects. This analysis led to 10 actionable recommendations for how the Department can begin to address those risks. Purpose of the Report This report is an executive-level summary of the key findings and recommendations developed by the Task Force. The purpose of this report is to build awareness among DHS senior leadership and across the Department of the risks posed by climate change and its homeland security implications. The key findings focus on the adverse effects that may threaten DHS missions, operations, and infrastructure. The Task Force s 10 recommendations serve as initial steps for DHS to adapt to the threat of climate change. Scope and Methodology The Task Force s scope was targeted as a high-level, qualitative analysis of how effects of climate change may impact Departmental missions, operations, and infrastructure over the coming years. To design the Task Force s analytical process, the Task Force used the flexible framework developed by the White House s Council on Environmental Quality, which serves as a guide for Federal agencies adaptation planning efforts. The Task Force s analytical methodology involved a case study approach and mirrored the analysis used by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) in its assessment of climate change risks to national security. Through six months of research, input from several external subject matter experts, and use of authoritative security analyses by other Federal entities and the academic community, the Task Force developed case studies of the Southeast and Southwest regions that accounted for potential cross-border impacts linked to the United States near perimeter. To assess the risks to DHS within these regions, the Task Force focused on issues linked to migration, infrastructure, and health areas projected to be seriously affected by climate change with the most cross-cutting implications for the Department. As a part of its risk analysis and vulnerability assessments, the Task Force conducted various analytic exercises both during and in between workshops that elicited input directly from DHS Component personnel and internal experts. Given the Task Force s case study approach, its analysis and recommendations should serve as a starting point for a more comprehensive look at the impacts of climate change on homeland security. Exclusions from Scope The report does not: Make projections or predictions about events that will happen in the future. The report looks at trends and drivers that may change DHS operational environment and influence the homeland security mission space. Link analysis of climate change risks to specific climate change projections (e.g., degree of temperature rise). Consider potential opportunities that climate change may create or how adaptive actions by countries or communities can help alleviate underlying stressors or challenges. Consider climate change risks to other regions in the United States (outside the Southeast and Southwest). Develop DHS-wide or Component-specific adaptation plans. Assess opportunities or recommend actions related to climate change mitigation this effort is driven and lead by the DHS Sustainability and Efficiency Task Force. ii

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5 I. INTRODUCTION Climate-related changes are underway around the world and are projected to continue over the coming decades and accelerate toward the end of the century. Climate change, current and future alike, is expected to affect the severity, frequency, or duration of extreme weather events, droughts, floods, sea-level rise, precipitation patterns, and the spread of life-threatening diseases. 1 The 2010 National Security Strategy and key members of the U.S. security community, including the NIC, the Department of Defense, and the Central Intelligence Agency, consider climate change a significant threat to the Nation s security. 2 These organizations also recognize that climate change may act as an accelerant of instability or conflict exacerbating social, political, or economic sources of destabilization, such as resource scarcity, fluctuating agricultural productivity, and overcrowded urban centers. 3 In a complex and interdependent world, in which U.S. security is increasingly linked to other nations, the Quadrennial Homeland Security Review (QHSR) establishes that a safe and secure homeland must mean more than preventing terrorist attacks. 4 With this vision, the concept of homeland security has broadened to include the principle of effectively managing multiple risks to the Nation s security. A truly secure America, capable of managing numerous threats and hazards, must therefore consider risks of climate change to critical infrastructure, the flow of goods and people, sources of U.S. economic power, and the health, resilience, I and physical security of the public. By recognizing this risk, DHS not only follows the precedent established by major U.S. security agencies, but also aligns with the vision of the 2010 National Security Strategy. Climate Change Science and Uncertainty There is a strong, credible body of evidence supporting the scientific community s consensus that changes in climate are underway and pose serious risks to a range of human and natural systems worldwide. Nonetheless, there are information gaps and limitations to what climate models can predict. 5 For example, certain natural processes such as ice sheet melt and regional climate effects are not fully explained by current scientific methods, which lead to uncertainties concerning the magnitude and rate of climate change. While progress is being made in a range of areas, II including better understanding of regional and local implications of climate change, challenges remain. Due to the complexity of climatic systems, many projections of future conditions have wide variations. Considering the uncertainties, complexities, and the high-level scope of the project, the Task Force focused its analysis of how effects of climate change may impact Departmental missions, operations, and infrastructure by: (1) leveraging case studies of the Southeast and Southwest regions that accounted for impacts in the near perimeter; III (2) emphasizing the cross-cutting issues of MANAGING RISK & UNCERTAINTY Dealing with uncertainty is a daily reality for the homeland security community. In the pioneering 2007 report National Security and the Threat of Climate Change, Chairman of the CNA Military Advisory Board General Gordon S. Sullivan reminds us that uncertainties are evidence of varying degrees of risk, not justifications for inaction. We never have 100 percent certainty. We never have it. If you wait until you have 100 percent certainty, something bad is going to happen on the battlefield. That s what we know. You have to act with incomplete information. See endnotes for reference migration, infrastructure, and health; and (3) using an analytical approach that focused on the security implications of climate change without tying its analysis to specific climate projections (e.g., degree of temperature rise by 2020). The following Key Findings section presents a synthesis of the Task Force s analysis (with contributions and insight from numerous DHS Component personnel), six months of research that integrates major findings from the U.S. security establishment, and input from respected subject matter experts. I The 2010 National Security Strategy defines resilience as the ability to adapt to changing conditions and prepare for, withstand, and rapidly recover from disruption. See endnote 2 for an extended definition of the term resilience. II As examples, the U.S. Global Change Research Program and National Research Council s recent reports advance the science exploring climate change. III The near perimeter is considered the immediate area south of the U.S. mainland Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean. 1

6 II. KEY FINDINGS Over the coming decades, the projected impacts of climate change pose both direct and indirect risks to U.S. security and resilience, as well as DHS missions, operations, and infrastructure. The direct effects of climate change particularly from intensifying hurricanes and other extreme weather events threaten the economic and physical security of the United States. These direct effects present acute challenges to national efforts to create resilient infrastructure and forge a robust national response capability for DHS operations and domestic disasters. Yet, based on the National Intelligence Assessment of National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030, the most significant impact for the United States will be indirect linked to the outcomes of climate change effects on other countries and their potential to seriously affect U.S. national security interests. 6 In this way, climate change acts as a threat multiplier, aggravating stressors, such as poverty, environmental degradation, and social tensions, which can destabilize human systems and institutions. Through its case study analysis, the Task Force identified three major, cross-cutting risks to DHS in the Southeast and Southwest regions: Summary of Three Major Climate-driven Risks to DHS Migration-related risks Infrastructure-related risks Health-related risks Changes in cross-border migration patterns and flows may challenge enforcement, processing, and response capacities across government. Increased population movements may accelerate the spread of infectious diseases. Pressures are building for the international community to formally recognize environmentally-induced migrants, which would have serious repercussions for the United States and the Department. Changes in precipitation patterns, intensifying severe weather, and rising sea levels may threaten resiliency across the 18 CIKR sectors and DHS infrastructure. Continuity of operations, delivery of services, and emergency response will be challenged and made increasingly complex by damages or disruptions to the interconnected energy and infrastructure networks. Prevention, response, and recovery operations throughout government may be strained or overwhelmed as infectious diseases spread or increase in prevalence/virulence. DHS personnel at points of entry may be vulnerable to disease transmission; increases in workforce illnesses would degrade operational capabilities. Overburdened State and local governments may require greater Federal involvement and funding. These outcomes challenge America s resilience, security, and prosperity, as well as core homeland security mission areas. 2

7 Effects of climate change pose direct risks to U.S. security and resilience. Extreme weather events especially from severe storms and floods, heat waves, and intensifying hurricanes along the East and Gulf coasts pose risks to life, property, health, and economic prosperity within our homeland. Climate change is expected to increase the intensity or frequency of such events, and, therefore, may increase the number or severity of disasters, stress State and local governments capabilities, and burden DHS response and recovery operations. Climate change is also projected to affect storm surges, droughts, wildfires, and rising sea levels in ways that threaten the integrity and operation of national CIKR and DHS-maintained infrastructure alike. Particularly vulnerable are low-lying coastal regions or areas near expanding floodplains, where rising sea level and stronger storms threaten, not only infrastructure, but cities, residential communities, economic livelihoods, and ecosystems. 7 Overall, projections of more frequent, severe, or multiple simultaneous disasters may stress the Department s response capacity and require more resources to support survivors immediate and long-term needs. Indirect effects of climate change, especially on the near perimeter, also pose risks to U.S. security and resilience. Shifts in climatic conditions may set off many secondary or tertiary effects. Such indirect effects will be felt globally, with the United States near perimeter (e.g., Mexico and countries in Central America and the Caribbean) particularly exposed. The projected impacts of climate change on these neighboring regions have clear homeland security implications: climate change may increase prospects for conflict and organized insurrection due to increased resource scarcity, weakening states, and widening economic inequalities. 8 As a threat multiplier, climate change may challenge fragile parts of the region potentially contributing to State instability, expanding ungoverned spaces, or, in extreme cases, triggering conditions that breed extremism and terrorism. 9 The destabilizing force of climate change can, for example, create fluctuations in agricultural productivity, diminish access to fresh water, and provoke population displacement in areas suffering land loss or environmental degradation. These impacts will likely be compounded by increases in property and infrastructure damage in densely populated areas and the growing spread of infectious diseases through highly mobile transportation systems. Deteriorating social or economic conditions can spur environmentally-induced migration to developed countries like the United States. 10 Climate change poses a particularly urgent challenge when considered in the context of other significant drivers such as energy supply/demand, demographic shifts, and environmental degradation. The interplay of these forces and the potential for significant shifts in the trajectory or rate of change within each, both negative and positive, must be closely monitored. 3

8 As depicted in figure 1 below, both direct and indirect effects of climate change have significant implications for DHS. In general, DHS may face greater operational demand; be confronted with growing public health risks, including border protection and processing challenges linked to migration across land and sea borders; and be required to support expanding domestic and international humanitarian 11 or disaster-relief operations. 4

9 III. IMPLICATIONS TO DHS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON MIGRATION, INFRASTRUCTURE, AND HEALTH For core homeland security mission areas, impacts of climate change on migration, infrastructure, and health in the Southeast and Southwest present significant security and resilience challenges. The destabilizing impacts of climate change create various security and resiliency risks that may affect the Department across its five core homeland security mission areas: (1) preventing terrorism and enhancing security, (2) securing and managing our borders, (3) enforcing and administering our immigration laws, (4) safeguarding and securing cyberspace, and (5) ensuring resilience to disasters. Recognizing these risks, DHS can develop multiple adaptation strategies to deal with the homeland security implications. Through its regional case study analysis, the Task Force identified migration, infrastructure, and health as major, cross-cutting risks to the Department in the Southeast and Southwest. Impacts of climate change on migration The consequences associated with climate change-induced migration affect three primary homeland security mission areas: (1) preventing terrorism and enhancing security; (2) securing and managing our borders; and (3) enforcing and administering our immigration laws. By triggering various primary, secondary, and tertiary effects, climate change may contribute to underlying stressors that drive migration flows. In particular, two major potential outcomes in the near perimeter pose serious risks to DHS: large-scale population displacements (mass migration) and new, higher levels of sustained migration (legal and illegal) to the United States. Although both are plausible, these distinct outcomes (mass migration and new normal migration) would result from indirect, climate-driven impacts on natural and human systems. Migration patterns are fundamentally nonlinear and intertwined with other forces, including poverty, urbanization, institutional instability, changes in labor opportunities, and increases in drug-related violence. 12 Despite the focus on potential homeland security risks linked to changes in migration, it is important to recognize that migration IV in itself is not a negative force, but rather a temporary or permanent human coping mechanism for a range of underlying stressors. V Examples of how climate change may affect migration in the near perimeter. Changes in climate conditions VI can create fluctuations in agricultural production that may disrupt food supplies and erode traditional livelihoods. This, in turn, can spur increased migration primarily internal to states, in the form of rural to urban shifts, but also across borders and increase drug/human smuggling and trafficking networks that filter into the United States. As described in the QHSR, illicit trafficking and related transnational crime can undermine effective governance and security, corrupt strategically vital markets, slow economic growth, and destabilize weaker states much of which is apparent in societies within the Western Hemisphere. 13 More repeated, intense storms or extreme weather have the potential not only to create greater physical damage, but also to force nations and individuals to divert more resources to rebuild and recover. This may diminish nations ability to return to pre-disaster levels of economic growth and undermine pillars of social and political stability. In turn, affected countries may seek more international funding or disaster-relief support. As evidenced by the response to the January 2010 earthquake in Haiti, these are government-wide efforts that consume significant attention and resources from departments and agencies including DHS (see blue box on page 7). Meanwhile, for individuals, cross-border migration becomes an increasingly attractive alternative with the United States a primary destination for people in the near perimeter. 14 Whether temporary or permanent, legal or illegal, changes in migration will affect core homeland security missions and influence the Department s operational environment. IV For clarification on the definition and explanation of the terms refugees, migrants, and environmentally- or climate change-induced migrants, see endnote 12. V An important determinant for migration is the adaptive capacity of nations and communities measured not only by economic productivity or growth, human capital, environmental capacity, but also the strength of social networks that determine peoples response to stressors such as environmental degradation. VI Agricultural production is affected by changing climatic conditions, such as intensifying or prolonged droughts; lowered average rainfall or erratic precipitation patterns; and increased average/extreme temperatures can lead to sustained disruptions in food supply and erosion of traditional livelihoods. 5

10 Effects of initial population displacements Initial population displacements (e.g., from rural areas to border communities) can create staging grounds for immigration to the United States. In the intermediary stages, exposure to diseases spread in crowded living spaces may increase, and individuals may become implicated in a web of criminal networks that smuggle/traffic humans and illicit goods. As intensified migratory patterns transit familiar as well as new routes, these staging areas may emerge as future flashpoints. 15 Other Impacts of Shifting Population Flows Effects of deepening social ties between cross-border communities Deepening social connections between communities in the near perimeter and the United States may incentivize more cross-border migration. U.S. residents with connections to these vulnerable communities abroad may pressure governments to be more responsive to the consequences of climatic changes forcing scarce resources across all levels of government to be diverted away from other priorities. At worst, fragile countries with strong connections to the United States may exploit the risk of mass migration to force U.S. diplomatic or economic concessions. 16 These outcomes challenge core homeland security mission areas. Climate change-induced migration in the near perimeter has significant implications for border security and immigration-related missions. Increases in the frequency and scale of natural disasters may set off large-scale migration to the United States, stretching DHS operational capabilities. This may happen through both the Southeastern sea border and the Southwest land border. Each geographic area poses its own unique challenges. The Southwest border will require greater interdiction, processing, and repatriation work by Customs and Border Protection (CBP), while the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) will lead such efforts along the Southeastern rim. Even if natural disasters do not provoke episodes of mass migration, the impacts of climate change are expected to have a threat multiplier effect on both legal and illegal migration to the United States and may increase overall population flows. 17 The resulting stressors may stretch DHS operational capabilities, especially for DHS Components with substantial equities in securing and managing our borders and enforcing and administering our immigration laws, such as U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), CBP, and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Temporary surges in migration to the United States may become sustained creating a potentially higher, new normal level of migration. VII Isolated or incremental increases will add to the cumulative volume of migration and thus increase average population flows. For example, in the aftermath of Hurricane Mitch in 1998, a number of Central Americans migrated to the United States and stayed deepening social ties between the countries and adding to base levels of migration. 18 Another compounding factor is that outside the United States, recipient nations of increased migration from within the region may not have the resources or political means to host climate-induced migrants from other neighboring countries further contributing to destabilizing forces that engender social tensions and spur cross-border migration. Locally, U.S. communities will face myriad challenges, including increased crime linked to challenging economic prospects or smuggling and trafficking that may accompany disorderly population displacements. 19 These factors challenge DHS ability to manage and secure our borders, administer and enforce our immigration laws, and exacerbate sources of conflict that may affect the Department s ability to ensure the security and safety of U.S. citizens. VII Changes in climate that may indirectly undermine economic and social conditions through deterioration of infrastructure, political instability, or greater environmental degradation can increase levels of migration. 6

11 Both large-scale and new normal levels of migration will challenge current legal and enforcement frameworks. Climate change-induced migrants do not have a legal category, standardized processes or documentation procedures. 20 With climate change effects likely to increase the prospect of immigration to the United States, international efforts to provide a new classification status for such migrants may pressure the United States to stake a clear position on this issue. Any legal changes will affect core homeland security missions and operations, especially for Components such as USCIS, CBP and ICE. Changes to such policies are likely to generate fierce political debate, wide-reaching economic impacts to both government resources and the business community, and influence foreign relations. Moreover, large-scale population flows or higher levels of average migration are both potential consequences of increasing disasters that may result from changing climatic conditions. The U.S. government s response to this year s Haiti earthquake although different in origin from climate-driven changes portends the scale of future potential disasterrelated responses (see blue box below). Inadequate contingency or preparedness planning will further complicate the operational environment should such migration patterns emerge. 21 Increased migration may accelerate the spread of infectious diseases heightening the risk of pandemic. Existing processing centers and detention facilities will be stressed to manage large numbers of infected people, and exposure of infected groups or individuals to crowded conditions may accelerate contagion. 22 These situations will place DHS operational personnel at greater risk of exposure, emphasizing DHS dependence on other government agencies to provide health-screening services. Increased migratory pressures on the United States may challenge the capacities of governmental and non-governmental institutions. Either large-scale or new normal levels of migration may destabilize underpinnings of current policies or strategies. At a macro level, DHS may be involved in U.S. government efforts to deal with migration at the source potentially expanding the Department s international scope or spurring more active U.S. presence in development or disaster-relief efforts abroad. Disorderly migration flows may also engender social, economic, and political tensions, or increases in illicit activities. Resulting public pressure or changing political circumstances may demand new DHS Components and personnel to play a greater first interceptor role. 23 Coordination between State and local governments and Federal authorities will be increasingly important as conditions undermine traditional enforcement practices and procedures. DHS RESPONSE ACTIONS IN THE AFTERMATH OF 2010 HAITIAN EARTHQUAKE The USCG was the first U.S. Federal agency on the ground in Haiti, and provided emergency medical treatment, port security, airlift, and airport command and control. CBP officials conducted pre-departure activities for travelers en route to the United States and facilitated the movement of foreign government assets and supplies to Haiti. FEMA deployed emergency response personnel and equipment along with urban search and rescue teams. ICE provided security for fuel trucks, supply equipment, adoptees, and evacuee convoys between the Dominican Republic and Haiti. ICE also identified escaped criminals in Haiti. TSA provided aviation security oversight, and provided technical assistance and equipment to expedite the resumption of commercial air carrier service in Haiti. USCIS established procedures that allowed children approved for humanitarian parole to depart Haiti and processed Temporary Protected Status applications from Haitians. Based on internal DHS memo 7

12 Impacts of climate change on infrastructure The Nation s extensive and interconnected infrastructure system is vital to ensuring our security, prosperity, and dynamism, and its vulnerability to a range of hazards poses risks to homeland security. In the QHSR, the Department set out a strategic framework that broadened the homeland security mission beyond protection to include ensuring the resilience of critical infrastructure functions, networks, and systems. 24 Climate change poses significant risks to the resiliency of CIKR, and thereby challenges two core homeland security missions: (1) preventing terrorism and enhancing security, and (5) ensuring resilience to disasters. The same climatic effects that threaten critical infrastructure also apply to DHS-owned or maintained infrastructure. To the extent that DHS infrastructure is affected by climate change, all five homeland security mission areas may suffer from operational, budgetary, and planning disruptions or stresses. The matrix below provides an overview of how effects of climate change may threaten the integrity and operation of CIKR and DHS infrastructure. 25 Examples of How Climate Change May Impact CIKR and DHS Infrastructure Effects of precipitation changes Changes in precipitation patterns and intensity may increase shortterm flooding, stressing vital infrastructure such as energy and water systems. Over the past century, the amount of precipitation falling in the heaviest 1% of rain events increased nearly 20%. The impact of this trend was recently highlighted in May 2010, when torrential downpours in Tennessee and neighboring states killed dozens, critically damaged infrastructure, and left areas of Nashville under water. 26 Figure 2 above depicts how effects of climate change, specifically sea-level rise, can have devastating impacts to the Gulf Coast a region heavily reliant on a network of coastal infrastructure. 1 (USGCRP) Effects of intensifying hurricanes, storm surges, and rising sea levels More severe hurricanes and storm surges and rising sea levels may lead to infrastructure damage, interruptions, and collapse. Coastal infrastructure (especially port facilities, transportation hubs, and energy production) and delivery systems are particularly vulnerable. The magnitude of infrastructure damage from extreme weather is great. In 2005, for example, direct losses to the energy industry from extreme weather were estimated at $15 billion, with millions more spent on restoration and recovery. 27 Effects of rising temperatures and heat waves Climate change is expected to increase temperatures, prolong or worsen heat waves, and make environments more susceptible to wildfires. This could threaten transportation operations, damage roads/rails, impact aircraft performance and runway length, and increase use of energy. These changes all affect emergency response capabilities and DHS planning, budgeting, and operational dynamics. According to the GAO, annual Federal expenditures to prepare for and fight fires in 2007 totaled $3 billion, up from about $1 billion in These outcomes challenge core homeland security mission areas, the national effort to protect and ensure the resilience of infrastructure and build a robust response capability to domestic disasters. 8

13 Potential impacts of climate change on CIKR and DHS infrastructure have significant implications for core homeland security mission areas. Infrastructure damage and collapse increase risks to DHS missions and operations. Continuity of operations, delivery of services, and emergency response are vitally dependent on the 18 CIKR sectors, which may suffer short-term and long-term degradation, and may become increasingly unreliable or generally inoperable for prolonged periods. Such impacts could directly affect the primary homeland security mission of enhancing security and cut across the other four core homeland security mission areas. A failure in one sector, such as our water supply system, can adversely affect not only public health, but also the ability of first responders to provide emergency services. Moreover, these compounding challenges may stress the Department s ability to effectively execute multiple missions, as more severe storms or recurrent disasters stretch logistical, supply chain, and emergency response operations. Interdependence of U.S. energy and infrastructure networks produces cascading effects that affect DHS planning, budgeting, and operations. As a result of major disruptions or damages to distinct parts of infrastructure systems (rail, highways, electrical grid, etc.), potential negative effects will reverberate across a range of sectors and may overwhelm State and local capabilities to manage or adapt. Greater reliance on Federal involvement may stretch typical boundaries between different levels of government and alter how DHS and its Components are expected to perform their missions. Infrastructure degradation may limit DHS ability to respond to disasters (pre-position supplies, evacuations, etc.) and add greater complexity to missions as changes in the operational environment disrupt planning and execution of services. Overall, deteriorating structural integrity of bridges and other vital infrastructure may increase vulnerability to other stressors threatening the resilience of the entire infrastructure network thereby impacting critical DHS missions. DHS operational assets/facilities may reach saturation points more quickly or frequently, due to deferred maintenance, decommissioning of unique assets or resources (e.g., piers, cutters), and greater wear and tear. As a result of reaching these saturation points, costs are projected to increase for maintenance and operations of core DHS facilities. The USCG, for example, with major sea- and coastalbased operations (that account for nearly 40 percent of the DHS real property portfolio), may be at greater risk from various changes in climate. The DHS Office of Management uses a general measure (the Condition Index) to determine a constructed asset s condition at a specific point. VIII More damage to DHS infrastructure will alter the Condition Index and impact DHS resource and asset allocation or relocation decisions. EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ABROAD CAN IMPACT U.S. SECURITY Around the world, climate change has the potential to affect food and agricultural production in a variety of ways. Security analyses conclude that lack of access to vital resources like food can be a cause of migration, conflict, and instability. The conflict in Darfur provides a painful case study of how existing marginal situations can be exacerbated beyond the tipping point by climate-related factors. Long, severe droughts turned significant areas of farmland and grazing land into desert. This forced nomads south in search of water and herding grounds, which in turn generated conflicts with occupying tribes. Changing climatic conditions can stress food supplies and threaten to increase malnutrition. According to the UN, such scenarios are especially devastating for populations dependent on subsistence farming or without the means to buy food, as it often increases the severity or incidence of many infectious diseases, particularly among children and the elderly. The Nation s resilience, security, and prosperity are vulnerable to how such stressors may shift migration flows, accelerate the spread of disease, and contribute to conflict or humanitarian crises. See endnotes for references VIII The Condition Index is based on the ratio of repair needs to plant replacement value. 9

14 Impacts of climate change on health The National Institutes of Health-led Interagency Workgroup on Climate Change and Health (IWCCH) asserts that the environmental consequences of climate change will affect human health both directly and indirectly. 29 Research cautions that climatic changes could tip the ecological balance and trigger pandemic. 30 As evidenced by the H1N1 flu outbreak, the threat posed by pandemic have clear security risks for the country and pose specific challenges for three of the core homeland security mission areas: (1) preventing terrorism and enhancing security; (2) securing and managing our borders; and (3) enforcing and administering our immigration laws. Furthermore, the health of the DHS workforce is central to delivering on all homeland security missions. In the same ways climate change may affect public health, the DHS workforce is vulnerable to a range of health risks that have implications for executing all five homeland security mission areas. IX In defining today s security environment, the QHSR explains that pandemic, major accidents, and natural hazards can result in massive loss of life and livelihood equal to or greater than many deliberate malicious attacks. In an increasingly globalized world, with complex and integrated international trade and travel systems, climate change and health issues transcend national borders. The matrix below provides a snapshot of how climatic changes can affect the U.S. health system. 31 Examples of How Climate Change May Impact the U.S. Health System Effects of floods, droughts Effects of infectious diseases Indirect effects on health and excess runoff Climate change may affect the potential incidence, seasonal transmission, and geographic range of various infectious diseases. Many lethal diseases are highly sensitive to temperature and rainfall, which affect the prevalence and virulence of diseases like cholera, diarrheal diseases, malaria, and dengue fever. Changes in climate may spread diseases to regions of the United States previously unexposed to the diseases and where the population has low inherent immunity. Floods, droughts and contaminated water increase disease risks. For instance, lack of fresh water from damaged water infrastructure compromises hygiene, which may increase rates of diarrheal disease. In long-term cases, water scarcity results in drought and leads to various negative health effects. Extreme precipitation can contaminate freshwater supplies and create opportunities for breeding of disease-carrying insects like mosquitoes. Potential indirect effects include aggravation of chronic diseases, due to interruptions in health care service; significant mental health concerns, both from interrupted care and geographic displacement; and economic disruption from population displacement. Crowding of displaced populations resulting from extreme weather may increase disease transmission. Climate change may exert significant, gradual pressures on the natural, economic, and social systems that underpin human health. These outcomes pose serious risks to DHS missions, personnel and operations. IX Sea-level rise, changes in precipitation resulting in more intense or prolonged flooding and drought, more intense hurricanes, storms or heat waves, and degraded air quality are just a few potential effects of climate change that may affect human health. 10

15 Core DHS missions, operations, and personnel are at risk from climate change impacts on health in the United States and near perimeter. The potential threat of pandemic is the most overarching health-related security risk of climate change. The threat is compounded by trends (identified in the migration section), such as increased population flows, global transportation networks, and overcrowding of major urban centers. As a result, potentially ill migrants pose a range of challenges for DHS missions and operations. Currently, DHS coordinates with other Federal agencies, such as U.S. Department of Agriculture and CDC, to ensure diseases do not enter the United States, and the Nation can mitigate the effects when diseases enter and begin to spread. DHS depends on these agencies to conduct health screenings and contain, diagnose, track, and monitor diseases. Pandemic scenarios will emphasize DHS dependence on these other government agencies. This suggests current national plans for dealing with pandemic requiring border closures and mass interception of vessels bound for U.S. maritime borders may need to be revisited in light of such emerging risks. DHS may have to support management and care for more displaced populations or survivors in disaster-response situations. The potential for more intense hurricanes, storm surges, and other extreme weather may expose more people to associated health risks and increase the operational burden on DHS and its partners. Such an environment may consume a growing amount of time and resources, and require prioritization of operational mission areas. Over time, greater response, recovery, and rebuilding operations may strain productivity and challenge existing resource allocation across the Department and within Components. The DHS workforce may be exposed to increasing health-related risks. DHS personnel working at points of entry (border crossings, airports, ports, etc.) may be vulnerable to disease transmission. Increased exposure of field personnel to potentially infected populations may necessitate changes to operational protocols and procedures to address health risks to DHS staff and their families. Without sufficient preparation and planning, increases in health crises may result in ill-equipped or insufficient trained personnel to deal with infected populations potentially degrading operational capabilities and increasing the risk of exposure to the DHS workforce and public at large. Increase in public health incidents may overwhelm prevention, response, and recovery at State and local levels. Changing environmental conditions may increase the number of public health incidents or increase duration/frequency of surges in health demand. State and local institutions are only equipped to deal with limited surge capacity; therefore, potential demand surges may diminish the performance and delivery of other essential local services, and require more Federal support. This may stretch DHS operations and its ability to fulfill its role in the Federal government s effort to protect the Nation s health. SURGE CAPACITY CHALLENGES DURING MULTIPLE RESPONSE EVENTS DHS is staffed to meet day-to-day operations and withstand some surge demand for operational forces during a national emergency. In recent years, DHS Components have responded to national emergencies like hurricanes Katrina and Rita, as well as in the recent Deepwater Horizon oil spill and the H1N1 pandemic. Internationally, the U.S. government s response to the 2010 Haitian earthquake saw several DHS Components heavily involved in disaster-relief operations. These emergencies often demand all-hands mobilization and increase workload across the Department as personnel surge to manage the incident. Operational risk increases if disasters occur simultaneously. As Dr. Geoff Dabelko of the Woodrow Wilson Center explains, expected climate change impacts will pose more challenges through direct impacts and second and third order reactions. A warmer world will likely bring multiple concurrent extreme weather events or social responses (migration for example). At stake is not only the Nation s resilience to disasters, but other core homeland security missions that overlap with critical border and port security. Therefore, DHS must build a more robust national response capability to sustain high capacity presence as crises extend over longer time frames. See endnotes for reference 11

16 IV. SUMMARY OF TASK FORCE RECOMMENDATIONS After assessing risks related to climate change impacts on migration, infrastructure, and health, the Task Force concluded the risks related to climate change are significant enough that DHS must begin now to plan, prepare for, and adapt to these future changes in a way that will allow the Department to fulfill its missions as well as maintain its infrastructure and ability to operate successfully. The Task Force developed 10 recommendations that would benefit Departmental missions and operations, regardless of the exact nature of future climatic changes. As previously described, the Task Force s methodology consisted of a case study approach that broadly focused on the Southeast and Southwest regions of the United States and the neighboring countries along our southern borders (the near perimeter). As a result, the following recommendations represent a preliminary step for the Department to take adaptive actions to address the challenge of climate change. In other words, these recommendations and the Task Force s progress should serve as a starting point for a more comprehensive look at the impacts of climate change on homeland security. The recommendations provide DHS with an opportunity to proactively address an emerging risk. To deliver on its mission to manage multiple risks to the Nation s security, DHS should seriously consider the current and future risks of climate change to homeland security. The following recommendations should be incorporated into Departmental operations, planning, and decision-making processes. 1. Accountability and Coordination. Climate change and its potential impacts are complex and projected to evolve over time. DHS must stay closely attuned to developing science and climatic conditions in order for the Department s strategies, processes, and policies to evolve and remain effective. Therefore, the Task Force recommends establishing a governance structure consisting of (A) an executive steering committee to provide departmental guidance and accountability for implementation of adaptation policies, and (B) a Climate Change Adaptation Program Team within the DHS Office of Policy to coordinate programs and serve as a primary point of contact for internal and external adaptation stakeholders (e.g., scientific community and department staff involved in climate adaptation efforts). 2. Develop a DHS Climate Change Adaptation Directive. The Task Force recommends establishing a directive to build awareness and provide direction across the Department on the issue of climate change adaptation. This directive would serve to initiate the process of institutionalizing the Task Force s key findings and recommendations within the Department. 3. Incorporate Climate Change into Strategic Planning. DHS should plan for climate change adaption as part of its larger, long-term strategic efforts. DHS Policy Office of Strategic Plans is defining a methodology for strategic planning that will be applicable for enterprise-wide strategy development. Climate change and its impacts on homeland security should be examined through this methodology as one of many cross-cutting drivers that influence current and emerging trends in the DHS mission space, and Components should integrate adaptation planning into their strategic planning. 4. Consider Climate Change in the Homeland Security National Risk Assessment Process. The Homeland Security National Risk Assessment, called for in the 2010 Quadrennial Homeland Security Review, would identify and analyze risks to our national strategic interests from challenges that include terrorism, natural disasters, manmade accidents, major naturally occurring public health events, cyber attacks, and transnational incidents (including illegal immigration and mass migration). Climate change can potentially cause farreaching impacts to homeland security and should, therefore, be considered within the DHS risk framework. 12