Refugee Camps as Climate Traps Measuring the Enviro-climatic Marginality of 922 Global Refugee Camps with Satellite Time Series Data

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1 NASA grant no. 80NSSC18K0311 Refugee Camps as Climate Traps Measuring the Enviro-climatic Marginality of 922 Global Refugee Camps with Satellite Time Series Data Jamon Van Den Hoek Assistant Professor of Geography and Geospatial Science

2 19.9 million refugees under UN mandate as of mid-2018 More than 2/3 of refugees live in protracted refugee scenarios where basic rights and essential economic, social, and psychological needs remain unfulfilled after years in exile. Refugee camp (2,125) Top refugeehosting countries: 1. Turkey 2. Uganda 3. Pakistan 4. Lebanon 5. Iran

3 Rohingya refugee camps in Bangladesh

4 Syrian refugee camp in Jordan

5 Refugee camps are commonly found in border regions The majority of host countries warehouse refugees in these often remote camps and deny rights to freedom of movement and wage-seeking employment Such restrictions not only limit economic opportunities, they also contribute to refugees being more likely to: experience intergenerational poverty, and require special assistance to adapt to climate change

6 Voluntary migration is a resilience-building decision to mitigate climate effects Recent research demonstrates that a combination of higher temperatures and rainfall extremes are correlated with increases in migration away from affected areas However, a refugee s inability to leave despite exposure or vulnerability to climate effects for years on end may result in refugee camps acting as climate traps The predicted probabilities of migration in Bangladesh as a function of precipitation and temperature (from Call et al., 2017)

7 Global refugee camps National random samples We conducted a stratified random sample to find alternative, potential refugee camphosting sites for comparative analysis within each camp-hosting country We compared three climate migration-relevant variables at refugee camps as well as these randomly sampled sites

8 Annual Rainfall Change in Annual Rainfall Change in Near-Surface Air Temperature CHIRPS precipitation Change variables reflected modeled changes from to under RCP8.5 emission scenario based on CMIP5 multimodel ensemble (average across 35 model outputs)

9 Globally, refugee camps have relatively higher annual precipitation camps random sites probability density cumulative annual precipitation (mm/yr)

10 Globally, refugee camps have relatively higher change in precipitation camps random sites probability density fractional change in precipitation

11 Globally, refugee camps have comparable changes in surface temperature camps random sites probability density increase in near-surface air temperature (deg C)

12 Country to country, the degree of camps relative marginality varies TURKEY: Home to nearly 4 million refugees, 3.5 million from Syria Received 23% (100 million USD) of requested budget (as of July 2018) precipitation (mm/yr) fractional precipitation change temperature change (deg C) camps random sites

13 Country to country, the degree of camps relative marginality greatly varies UGANDA: Home to 1.2 million refugees, 785,000 from South Sudan Received 6% (60 million USD) of requested budget (as of June 2018) precipitation (mm/yr) fractional precipitation change temperature change (deg C) camps random sites

14 Country to country, the degree of camps relative marginality greatly varies PAKISTAN: Home to 1.4 million Afghan refugees Received 39% (15 million USD) of requested budget (as of Dec 2018) precipitation (mm/yr) fractional precipitation change temperature change (deg C) camps random sites

15 With these results, we identify camps with relatively extreme changes in precipitation and temperature Diyarbakır, TURKEY Nakivale, Western UGANDA Surkhab, Balochistan, PAKISTAN

16 Conclusions We identified refugee camps with most relatively extreme changes in precipitation and temperature, and recognized the high variability in trends at camps country to country While globally the enviro-climatic conditions at refugee camps are not substantially different from those of other sites, this means that refugee communities will likely face similar climate exposure despite having fewer resources including the right to leave the camp Further development of this study will support and encourage The need to end warehousing of refugees and provide viable pathways towards resettlement or integration if so desired Evaluation of potential long-term vulnerabilities of refugee communities under present and future climate change Development of place-based solutions to climate adaptation strategies that won t fail given the context and local needs

17 Thank you very much for the invitation and your attention! Thanks to project collaborators David Wrathall Hannah Friedrich Frieda Fein Anna Ballasiotes Mhairi O Hara Cristiano Giovando Nate Smith Tyler Radford Drew Bollinger Mark Wronkiewicz Ian Schuler Contact Jamon Van Den Hoek vandenhj@oregonstate.edu