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1 MSC 63 rd Student Conference on National Affairs New World Disorder: Reconsidering America s Roles, Responsibilities, and Relationships Texas A&M University Delegate Research Information Round Table Narconomics: The Power and Poison of the Cartels Facilitator: DEA Special Agent Craig Cornelius This delegate research information is not intended to be a comprehensive assessment of your assigned round table topic but rather a starting point to help launch your own personal investigations into the various associated issues. It is encouraged, if not expected, that your policy proposals will be inclusive of aspects pertaining to your round table topic that are not covered in this research compilation. You, your facilitator, your round table host, and your fellow roundtable delegates are all responsible for crafting a policy proposal that takes this into consideration.

2 Example Policy Proposal - SCONA 61 Winner To: The Honorable Susan Rice Office Held: National Security Advisor From: Spencer Allen, Christopher Beveridge, John Breland, Karch Calkins, Johnny Childers, Rachel Clink, Zachariah Fares, Brian Fuentes, Adel Hussain, Sebastian King, Isaac Lee, Emily Otto, Joni Taylor Facilitator: COL Chris Albus Subject: Counteracting the Allure of Jihad Date: 20 February 2016 Introduction The allure of Jihad is a growing national security problem. There is an increased ability of terrorist groups to inspire those living within the U.S. to commit acts of domestic terrorism. This complex problem requires the development of a counter-narrative policy, based on American values, to limit the allure of Jihad. This is done by partnering with the Muslim community and interest groups and initiating a proactive, timely, and relevant informational campaign. Background Combating Jihad within the United States is a key tenet of the 2015 National Security Strategy (NSS). Key NSS components for combating the allure of Jihad include: collective action with responsible partners, and increased efforts to prevent the growth of violent extremism and radicalization that drives increased threats.... address the underlying conditions that can help foster violent extremism 1... supporting alternatives to extremist messaging. Together, these points offer a foundation to build a feasible, acceptable, and suitable strategy based on partnerships and a comprehensive informational campaign. A 2007 New York Police Department investigation identified a four step process describing how 2 a person progresses from an average citizen to a Jihadist (Figure 1). The progression moves through pre-radicalization, self-identification, indoctrination, and finally into jihadization. Pre-radicalization occurs before the individual is exposed to radical Islam. In self-identification, the individual begins to relate more with the radical Islamic ideology than with an ideology of moderation and peace. Indoctrination occurs when the individual believes their anti-western violent radical Islamic ideology is justified. Finally, jihadization occurs when the individual 1 "National Security Strategy." (2015): 9. The White House. Feb Web. 19 Feb Precht, Tomas. Home Grown Terrorism and Islamist Radicalisation in Europe. Publication. Danish Ministry of Justice, Web. 19 Feb

3 3 begins to act on those beliefs. 4 Figure 1: Four-step process of Radicalization. Salafism is a form of radical Islam Supporting Argument Analysis The allure of Islamic inspired homegrown terrorism stems from an exploitation of the human 5 need for personal significance and cognitive closure. Individuals seeking a sense of certainty and the desire to gain a larger-than-life significance are susceptible to an extremist ideology that provides a black and white view of the world. Extremist ideology purports the notion that it holds all the answers. The proponents of such an ideology advertise themselves as heroes and martyrs. Dr. Kruglanski, a professor from the University of Maryland and a social psychologist, has conducted intensive research regarding the psychology behind terrorist recruitment. He concluded that combating terrorism requires replacing the glamour of Jihad with an alternative glamour. This involves enacting a policy that focuses on turning the psychological tables on 6 Islamic-inspired extremism. This research indicates a psychological vulnerability that can be exploited. As such, this policy targets that vulnerability which is located in between the steps of pre-radicalization and self-identification. Through counter-narrative initiatives the U.S. can supplant Jihadist narratives. Recommendations The first step of providing a counter-narrative involves partnerships with Muslim community leaders and interest groups. Political leaders will engage in open dialogue with the Muslim community and build strong working relationships, creating a unified front addressing the issues. Muslim leaders will be invited to address governing bodies and have a role in the 3 ibid. 4 England. Youth Justice Board. Preventing Religious Radicalisation and Violent Extremism. By Kris Christmann Web. 19 Feb Kruglanski, Arie W. Psychology Not Theology: Overcoming ISIS Secret Appeal. E-International Relations. 28 Oct Web. 19 Feb Sagl, Lauren. "Dr. Arie Kruglanski Discusses Psychology Behind Terrorist Recruitment." National Consortium of the Study of Terrorism and the Response to Terrorism. 29 Oct Web. 19 Feb

4 implementation of counter-narratives strategies. In reaching out to Muslim community leaders, the United States will develop a counter-narrative that builds a stronger position for Muslims in the fabric of the American Story. This will lessen the possibility of those who would feel disenfranchised with society, making them more susceptible to the Jihadist message. Similarly, a partnership with American interest groups for educational outreach should be created to promote public education of the tenets of Islam to the rest of the American public. Doing so mitigates stereotypes and creates a more educated and accepting public that effectively integrates Muslims into American society. The second step of this policy involves implementing a widespread and timely informational campaign to counter the Jihadist message of an inevitable clash between Islam and the West. Using cutting edge social media and other informational vehicles, the U.S. administers an informational campaign which disrupts the Jihadist decision-making process. By getting in front of the news media cycle or beating them to the punch, the U.S. will counter the extremist claim that a cultural and religious war is justified between Islam and the West. In order to defeat the inflammatory rhetoric of extremist ideology, public leaders need to unite and develop a common stance. Socio-cultural differences can be distorted to feed extremist propaganda. This united stance must be communicated early and often at all levels, from federal to local. Furthermore, the United States should exert its influence in the proactive messaging of the American narrative. Extremists use the media to incite fear and project their message. The United States needs to counter these messages by communicating events that highlight success, rather than those that focus on purely negative subjects. Leaders must also reach out to media outlets and project these messages to the public at every possible occasion. In conjunction with news media influence, the United States needs to implement a more prominent presence on social media. Such objectives are achieved through adapting counter-narratives to the specific messages from extremist accounts. By monitoring the public activity of the extremists, the United States ensures the Jihadists do not have an uncontested platform. Lastly, humor is a very powerful tool utilized to present extremist messages and ideology as ridiculous. This helps delegitimize their messages and undermines their ability to influence. There is a degree of risk associated with these options. Table 1 presents several of these risks, prioritized from high to low. These should be taken into consideration by decision makers before implementation.

5 Table 1: Risk Assessment Risk Context Risk Level Ineffective anti-jihad campaign Mixing Church and State Negative connotation of propaganda Reduction of legitimacy of Muslim Leaders Public Backlash Inadequate screening for leadership An ethnocentric anti-jihad campaign may become counterproductive and lead to an attraction towards Jihad. Developing programs that deal with educating the public or developing relations within a specific sect of Islam may be infringing on the separation of church and state. An information campaign could be misconstrued as negative propaganda which may lower public opinion of those who are distrustful of government influence. Liberal Muslim leaders cooperating with US strategy may be seen as being overly-influenced or controlled by government An emphasis of pro-muslim programs may create an upset by some Americans which may lead to public unrest. Sponsoring an improper Muslim community leader may create a platform for him/her to exploit for personal gain. High Medium Medium Medium Low-Medium Low Conclusion With this strategy, the United States Government can begin to counteract the allure of Jihad, a rising issue in Western society. This policy is feasible because the required informational and relational platforms are already in place, acceptable due to the potential benefits outweighing the risks determined in Table 1, and suitable due to the interconnectedness of the target audience via social networks, community ties, and other mediums. Partnering with Muslim communities and interest groups, as well as initiating an information campaign, will build an effective counter-narrative policy based on American values to limit the allure of Jihad.

6 Actors, Terms, Concepts Terms: Narcos - narcotics, illegal or illicit drugs Drug Cartels - are large, highly sophisticated organizations composed of multiple DTOs and cells with specific assignments such as drug transportation, security/enforcement, or money laundering Drug Lord, Drug Baron or Kingpin - the head of an organization, or network involved in illegal drug trafficking Gangs (street or prison) - pursue the same objectives of widening their networks, acquiring money from illicit activities, and increasing influence Turf Wars - a fight or argument to decide who controls an area or an activity Controlled Prescription Drugs (CPDs) - commonly known as opioids, approximately 52 Americans overdose on CPD everyday Drug trafficking organizations (DTO) - are complex organizations with highly defined demand-and-control structures that produce, transport and/or dispute large quantities of one or more illicit drugs. Mexican DTO - are the largest supplier of heroin, methamphetamines, and cocaine Supplier - a person or entity that is the source for goods and services Consumer - a person, or buyer who purchases goods and services for personal use Transportation - the majority of illicit drugs enter the US from Mexican TCOs through the southwestern border (SWB) Human Smuggling - is the facilitation, transportation, attempted transportation, or illegal entry of persons across an international border

7 Human Trafficking - involves the exploitation of people through force, coercion, threat, or deception and includes human rights abuses such as debt bondage, deprivation of liberty, or lack of control over freedom and labor. Trafficking can be for purposes of sexual or labor exploitation. It is important to note, however, that while sexual violence can occur in the context of trafficking and smuggling situations, some persons, but not all, Actors: Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) - formed after an executive order in 1973 under the Nixon Administration. The mission of the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) is to enforce the controlled substances laws and regulations of the United States and bring to the criminal and civil justice system of the United States, or any other competent jurisdiction, those organizations and principal members of organizations, involved in the growing, manufacture, or distribution of controlled substances appearing in or destined for illicit traffic in the United States; and to recommend and support non-enforcement programs aimed at reducing the availability of illicit controlled substances on the domestic and international markets. United States Government United Mexican States Government Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionaras de Colombia (FARC) - The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Farc, after the initials in Spanish). Was as an armed communist minded political group that participated in gorilla warfare and threatened the Sovereignty of Colombia in the late 1990 s. Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia(AUC)- Colombian paramilitary and drug trafficking group which was an active belligerent in the Colombian armed conflict during the period from 1997 to The AUC was responsible for attacks against the FARC and ELN rebel groups as well as numerous attacks against civilians MS13 Gang- They perpetrate violence from assaults to homicides, using firearms, machetes, or blunt objects to intimidate rival gangs, law enforcement, and the general public. They often target middle and high school students for recruitment. And they form tenuous alliances...and sometimes vicious rivalries...with other criminal groups, depending on their needs at the time. The Sinaloa Cartel The Beltran Levya Organization

8 The Juarez Cartel The Knights Templar The Gulf Cartel Los Zetas The Tijuana Cartel Department of Homeland Security - DHS is charged with defending the homeland of the United States from various threats. Agencies that fall under DHS include: United States Citizenship and Immigration Services, U.S. Customs and Border Protection, Federal Emergency Management Agency, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Transportation Security Administration, United States Coast Guard, National Protection and Programs Directorate, United States Secret Service. Border Patrol - The United States Border Patrol is the mobile, uniformed law enforcement arm of the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) within the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). It was officially established on May 28, 1924 by an act of Congress passed in response to increasing illegal immigration. As mandated by this Act, the small border guard in what was then the Bureau of Immigration was reorganized into the Border Patrol. The initial force of 450 officers was given the responsibility of combating illegal entries and the growing business of alien smuggling. Homeland Security Investigations (HSI)/ Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) - ICE S mission is to protect America from the cross-border crime and illegal immigration that threaten national security and public safety. This mission is executed through the enforcement of more than 400 federal statutes and focuses on smart immigration enforcement, preventing terrorism and combating the illegal movement of people and goods. President Felipe Calderon- President of Mexico Concepts: Legalization of Marijuana - by 2017, twenty eight states, including DC had legalized the recreational or medical use of Marijuana. There are three types of marijuana markets operating in the United States: illicit markets, state-approved medical marijuana markets, and state-approved personal use/recreational markets. In 2018 California legalized Marijuana.

9 Kingpin Strategy - a strategy to deconstruct Cartels by eliminating their leaders through death or capture. Was effective in the case of Pablo Escobar, and other significant Kingpins. However, the leaders are almost always replaced, or the formation of a separate cartel evolves from the remains of the fallen one. US domestic strategy- US spent $109 billion on drugs in 2014, roughly the same as the year The Kingpin Strategy, Colombian Paln, and lastly the Merida Strategy. The U.S. considers the drug crisis to be a War on Drugs ever since the Nixon administration. They continually militarize their strategy. Airming Mexico with Helicopters, use of drones, and mass incarcerations. Plan Colombia- approved by Congress in 2000, Plan Colombia was the name given to the US foreign aid, military and diplomatic initiative aimed at combating Colombian drug cartels and left-wing insurgent groups in Colombia. Merida Initiative - The Merida Initiative is an unprecedented partnership between the United States and Mexico to fight organized crime and associated violence while furthering respect for human rights and the rule of law.

10 Analysis Overview Drug trafficking is not a new concept. This deadly industry has a long bloody history, especially within the U.S. context. The height of the United States interest in the cartels originated in the Nixon administration. The drug use in the US was at an all time high, and the sovereignty of Latin American countries that supplied these drugs were very insecure. Thousands of people were killed in the name of this criminal industry. Still today many cities in Latin America are ranked the deadliest because of the cruelty associated with trafficking. The U.S and various Latin American countries have fought for decades to deconstruct the multitude of drug organizations through initiatives such as the Kingpin Strategy and the Colombian plan. There have been temporary victories, such as the defeat of famous cartel leader Pablo Escobar under the Kingpin strategy. Or the recent 2017 capture of Sinaloa cartel leader Joaquín Guzmán Loera, known as El Chapo. However, it is the nature of the cartels that when someone is removed from leadership another member is simply promoted. Often times a cartel is only temporarily disoriented and maybe fractured into small sub organizations. The United State s sovereignty and national security is vital to its existence and the drug industry imposes a threat to this security. After the 9/11 attacks homeland security, in regards to border security became an increased interest in Washington. The History of this industry has lengthy roots that span hundreds of years and spans all parts of the world. Since the establishment of the United States there have been drug carriers bringing them. National attention of the danger of drugs came at a much later time in History. In the early 1970 s the Nixon administration established the War on Drugs and claimed that the drug industry is public enemy number one. In Nolan Kuenzi s thesis The Influence of

11 Presidential Rhetoric on Public Perception of Drugs and the Government s Handling of the War on Drugs in the United States, he discusses the unique rhetoric associated with the different presidential administrations. He argues that how each president portrays the climate of the drug issue determines the public opinion at the time. Kuenzi states, What is not arguable is that presidents have played a big role in promoting the drug war and that the current status of the drug issue would probably be much different today if presidents had promoted it differently. Essentially saying the urgency the president at the time determines the concern that will be followed by the media and in return the public. Nixon claimed we were in a war against drugs, the terminology is still used today and has affected the way the US strategizes against the drug issue. This is demonstrated in the arming of our borders, the use of drones and the increase of incarcerations. Under George Bush, the war on Terrorism had a similar effect. When war is used to describe the situation, there is an urgency and elevated since of a threat. This isn t necessarily a bad thing, as long as the boarder and American civilians are in danger there needs to be action taken. In 2000, Plan Colombia was established to be a partnership between Colombia and the United States. The purpose of this plan as stated by the US department of State is promoting the peace process, combating the narcotics industry, reviving the Colombian economy, and strengthening the democratic pillars of Colombian society. The US has spent over $8 billion on this project and which only comes second to the spending efforts in the Middle East. The origin of the Colombian Plan was pre 9/11 and the lawlessness of Colombia was more concerning in the days before the War on terrorism. According to Michael Shifte r in his article Plan Colombia: A Retrospective, In 2000, drug-related violence was a far more important domestic

12 political concern in the U.S. than it is today. However, Colombia is much more stable and less violent since the U.S. has engaged in The focus of the U.S. has since moved to Mexico where the majority of the Cartels are operating. Which brings me to the Merida Initiative that was established in 2007 in an effort between the U.S. and Mexico to improve mutual cooperation on this transnational crisis. Ray Walser explains in his report of Mexico, Drug Cartels, and the Merida Initiative: A Fight We Cannot Afford to Lose, Both sides committed to improving international cooperation, coordination, and infor mation exchange. The Merida plan is different that the Colombian Plan in that U.S. troops were never deployed in Mexico. Both state s were mindful of each other's sovereignty and this was a cooperation between both states. Later in his report Walser explains that the Merida Initiative is unique because of the acknowledgement of both states that there is shared responsibility.... represents (the Merida Initiative) a significant para digm shift that recognizes that the U.S. and Mexico share responsibility for fighting the drug trade and the Mexican cartels. The U.S. is the number one consumer of illicit drugs, without the U.S. market the drug industry would not be what it is today. U.S. citizens regularly turn to Mexico to feed their voracious demand for illicit drugs. According to the ONDCP, approximately 7 million addicts live in the U.S (Walser). The U.S. has extended their focus internationally and has neglected their own domestic drug crisis. The cartels operate as a Transnational Criminal Organizations, all the countries involved play a critical role for the survival of this industry. The U.S., Mexico, and other Latin American countries are all responsible and theres is not one perpetrator. All of the nations involved must commit to eliminating their cause domestically. Historically, the drug crisis has

13 been militarized and been portrayed as a war against the cartels. In reality all of the states involved have shared responsibility for their perpetuation of this deadly cooperation. In Mexico, Colombia and other Latin countries have lacked the governmental stability to keep individuals from engaging in the drug industry. For many, they cannot secure their families safety without becoming involved. Perhaps, the focus of these countries should be building industry away from drugs. Invest in education initiatives, and build up an economy suitable for young people to find jobs. The demand for illicit drugs in the U.S. continues to pose the question of how to tackle this growing industry. The U.S. has to be very strategic on how to tackle their drug addiction problem.

14 Academic Articles, Journals Mixed Media

64,000 Americans died in the U.S. on drug overdoses. https://www.drugabuse.

15 64,000 Americans died in the U.S. on drug overdoses.

16 This map shows the various influence of Mexican trafficking organizations Current Events, Newsmedia Articles ) Mexico's most-wanted: A guide to the drug cartels : 2) The United States is Losing the War on Drugs in the Americas s/ 3) How to Win a War on Drugs 0 4) Domination of US drug market in maps

US-Mexico Cooperation Against Organized Crime

US-Mexico Cooperation Against Organized Crime Earl Anthony Wayne Career Ambassador (ret.) Public Policy Fellow, Wilson Center Presentation to Asociación de Bancos de México, 10/17 wayneea@gmail.com @EAnthonyWayne