1 US-Mexico Cooperation Against Organized Crime Earl Anthony Wayne Career Ambassador (ret.) Public Policy Fellow, Wilson Center Presentation to Asociación de Bancos de México,
2 Importance of Partnership with Mexico U.S.-Mexico ties touch more U.S. lives daily than any other country via trade, border connections, tourism, and family ties. The same is true for Mexico. An estimated 35 million U.S. citizens are of Mexican heritage. Share a 1990-mile border (3,201 km) & adjoining environment. In recent years, government-to-government collaboration has been unprecedented. The countries face common threats, notably from Organized Crime, as well as opportunities to increase trade and security.
3 Managing a Massive Relationship
4 US-Mexico Trade 2016 Trade in goods and services: US trades over 1 million per minute with Mexico. Currency in USD. Source: USTR, 2016
5 Source: The Wilson Center, 2016 US Jobs that depend on trade with Mexico 5 million US jobs depend on trade with Mexico, compared to an estimated 700,000 jobs in Over 1 million US Border States jobs depend on trade with Mexico.
6 US-Mexico Border Crossings Each day there are over 1 million border crossings Source: Bureau of transportation statistics, 2016
7 Serious Challenges to Address U.S. drug demand and organized Illegal immigration crime violence in Mexico Cross-border criminal networks Potential Terrorism Building stronger Mexican law Negative public perceptions enforcement institutions and Modernizing NAFTA bilateral cooperation Reducing poverty in Mexico Corruption Regional politics and demographics
8 Crime Threats Cartel profits are estimated to range from $18 to $30 billion from illegal drugs Cartels fuel rising US drug addiction numbers and serious violence and corruption in Mexico
9 Moving toward Co-Management of the Border
10 It is essential to have a secure border, to stop illegal flow of people and things both ways, to stop guns coming into Mexico, which are a lot of guns, and they end up in the hands of the cartels, to stop drugs from going into the U.S. And this is more about transnational crime organizations and disrupting the business model of transnational crime organizations and how can we use the border as a tool for that. Secretary of Foreign Affairs Videgaray September, 2017
11 Moving from blame to shared responsibilities Making the border more open to legitimate travel and commerce. Working to align customs regulatory frameworks; moving toward a North American single customs platform. New mechanisms to communicate, coordinate and more effectively counter illicit trade and travel: drugs, guns, money and people. Steps to increase security and reduce cross-border violence. New programs to share information on potential border crossers, including via shared border radio-frequency identification system. Working to create a Trilateral Trusted Traveler Program.
12 "We are... developing comprehensive plans to step up security in the Western Hemisphere and to push the US border outward by shutting down TCO's (Transnational Criminal Organizations) and smuggling networks. For example, ICE... is helping train and equip foreign counterparts to collect biometric and biographic data on persons of interest and potential threat actors. The data allow us to map illicit pathways, discover emerging trends and catch known or suspected terrorists while they are still far from our border. DHS Acting Secretary Elaine Duke in Senate Testimony September, 2017
13 Border: Migrant Flows
14 Migrant Flows The flow of Mexican immigrants to the U.S. is at the lowest levels since the 1990s. The number of Mexican immigrants in the U.S. has been dropping since In FY 2016, apprehensions of Mexican unauthorized immigrants declined 15.8% from FY 2014, and they continue to drop this year.
15 Source: PEW Research Center, 2016 Number of Unauthorized Immigrants in the U.S Mexican Other
16 Net Migration from Mexico In 2016, there were 1.3 million less unauthorized Mexican immigrants in the US than in , ,390 1,370 1, Source: Pew Research, to '00 05 to '10 09 to '14 U.S. to Mexico Mexico to the U.S.
19 Source: Unidad de Politica Migratoria, 2015; CBP Border Security Report FY 2015 Migrant Apprehensions: US-Mexico Cooperation Deportations by Mexico 175,136 Apprehensions by the U.S. 134,572
20 Helping Northern Triangle
21 Addressing Central American Migration The United States and Mexico enhanced cooperation on Central America in response to the 2014 surge of child and family migrants. This includes work at Mexico s southern border against smuggling of people and drugs. June In June 2017, the US and Mexico hosted a Conference on Prosperity and Security in Central America in Miami. Commitments included: U.S. FY 2018 budget request for $460 million to address economic, security, and governance challenges in the Northern Triangle (NT). NT support for a migration observatory to study and share information on regional migration flows. Agreement to improved information sharing, cooperation and U.S. assistance to combat transnational criminal organizations. $53 million from Mexico for three NT infrastructure projects.
22 Security and Justice Cooperation
23 US-Mexico Law Enforcement/Security Cooperation Mérida Initiative Programs & Agency-to-Agency Cooperation Defense Dialogues & Cooperation Security Coordination Group
24 Mérida Initiative: Evolving 1. Disrupting the operational capacity of organized crime. 2. Institutionalizing reforms to sustain the rule of law and respect for human rights in Mexico. 3. Creating a 21st Century Border. 4. Building strong and resilient communities. $2.6 billion appropriated by the US since $1.6 billion already spent on training and equipment via over 100 programs. Mexico has spent over 10 times more.
25 Opioids Change the Game
26 Total US Deaths from Illegal Drugs , Source: CDC Wonder Database; CDC Provisional Counts of Drug Overdose Deaths as of 8/6/2017
27 Drugs Involved in US Overdose Deaths ,145 15,446 14,427 10,619 7,663 3, Fentanyl and Fentanyl Analogues Heroin Prescription Opioids Cocaine Meth Methadone Source: CDC Wonder Database; CDC Provisional Counts of Drug Overdose Deaths as of 8/6/2017
28 2014 Death Rates for Drug Poisoning Source: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, Designed by L. Rossen, B.Bastian & Y. Chong
29 U.S. Opioid Crisis Opium derivatives use: over 5% of the U.S. population in Since 1999, overdose deaths involving opioids has quadrupled. Opium and heroin production in Mexico has grown substantially, as has transshipment of illicit opioids, e.g., Fentanyl, from China. In 2016, Presidents Peña Nieto and Obama launched a working group on drugs and dismantling criminal networks. Sources: The Globalist, The White House, CDC.
30 Addressing Organized Crime and Drugs in 2017 February March May July August Secretary of State Tillerson and Homeland Security Secretary Kelly visit Mexico to reinitiate dialogue. Executive Order establishes a Presidential Commission on Combating Drug Addiction and the Opioid Crisis. Secretaries Tillerson, Kelly, and Mexican Secretaries Videgaray and Osorio Chong meet in Washington and agree on a strategic work agenda. DHS Kelly and CIA Director Pompeo visit Mexico to follow up; meet with President Peña Nieto and others; visit Guerrero with Military Secretaries. President Trump says he will declare opioid crisis a national emergency.
31 2017 Agreements to Combat Illicit Drug Trade Partner to destroy criminal organizations. Address the demand for illicit drugs among US citizens. We have one common objective to end the tragic impacts of illicit drug trade on both sides of our border, Secretary Tillerson Necessary tools: physical barriers, technology, patrolling, eradication, enhanced law enforcement and justice actions, and anti-addiction programs. Go after all elements in the chain: means of production, cross-border distribution networks, flows of cash and profits, weapons procurement. It s a multifaceted problem it needs multifaceted solutions, Secretary Kelly
32 Violence up in Mexico: Mexican Strategy and Tactics?
33 Source: Secretaria Ejecutiva de Seguridad Nacional, 2016 Annual Homicide Cases in Mexico 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 -
34 February March April May June July August September October November December January 17 February March April May June Homicides in Mexico January-June 2017: 12,155 killings: up 30.7% from the same period in June 2017: the most violent month in the last 20 years. Law enforcement appears overwhelmed; cartels fighting, crime expanded, e.g. oil theft, more states affected. Source: Secretaria Ejecutiva de Seguridad Nacional, El financier & Dallas Morning News, 2017 Revised U.S. travel warning for vacation spots.
35 Crimes per 100,000 Persons Source: Mexico Peace Index 2017 Assaults and Homicides Committed with Firearms Total Homicide Assault
36 Justice Reform: People Detained Without Conviction 84,000 82,000 80,000 78,000 76,000 74,000 72,000 70,000 68,000 66,000 64,000 62,000 69, Source: Mexico Peace Index 2017
37 Illicit Financial Flows
38 Illicit Financial Flows An estimated $18 to $30 billion a year made in selling drugs in the U.S. -- Most illicit proceeds return to Mexico. Banks have a vital role in identifying and blocking these illicit financial transactions, applying smarter risk management, better know your customer practices, following AML regulations, and closely cooperating with authorities. Culture and practice must change. Financial crime risk must be fully integrated into the commercial lines of business; employees need the tools, IT systems and training to detect potentially illicit transactions.
39 U.S.-Mexico Work Against Illicit Finance In 2012, U.S. Treasury and Mexico's Finance Ministry agreed a joint agenda to increase financial transparency, including: - Bilateral meetings with the private sector. - Strengthening anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism finance regulation. - Increasing the flow of financial information between banks. - Encouraging supervision on a risk-based approach and providing guidance. - More cooperation on AML investigations and steps to freeze or seize assets. In 2014, launched the U.S.- Mexico Strategic Dialogue on Illicit Finance (SDIF) involving enforcement and judicial authorities.
40 A Strong Partnership with Mexico
41 Source: Gallup Poll, 2017 U.S. Public Perception of Mexico Improving % Very/Mostly Favorable
42 Next Steps in US-Mexico Law Enforcement Cooperation 1. Continue, adjust and focus U.S. Merida assistance to strengthen professionalization, capacity, and efficiency of Mexico's law enforcement and justice institutions. Continue justice reform. 2. Improve intelligence sharing and enhance law enforcement operations against organized crime, attacking distribution systems, identifying financial networks, and blocking arms smuggling into Mexico. Increase convictions. Attack corruption. 3. Augment and support Mexican eradication of opium production and destruction of heroin and meth labs; increase interception of precursor chemicals and fentanyl. Support alternatives for local population.
43 Next Steps in US-Mexico Law Enforcement Cooperation 4. Implement a joint strategy to identify and disrupt cartel financial systems, including use of third parties, and to seize/freeze assets and convict money launderers. 5. Deepen cooperation with the private financial sector to allow more information sharing and cooperation. 6. Assure regular cabinet and sub-cabinet meetings to track progress. 7. Work with regional partners (Central America and Colombia). 8. Follow through with US commitments to enhance enforcement actions and anti-addiction and rehabilitation programs in the US.
44 U.S.-Mexico Tasks Ahead Trade: Successfully complete NAFTA modernization negotiations. Bilateral Security Cooperation: Better manage migration and travel; intercept terrorists. Better fight organized crime, attacking production, distribution, logistics, finance networks, arms smuggling, and addiction/demand. Continue to support Central America; partner with others. Deepen military-to-military cooperation and partnership. Improve Competitiveness: Enhance technology, information sharing and processes to improve security and facilitation of legitimate trade and travel. Invest in programs, including education, to further develop the complimentary nature of the two economies, create jobs and improve global competitiveness.
45 US-Mexico Cooperation Against Organized Crime E. Anthony Wayne Career Ambassador (ret.) Public Policy Fellow, Wilson Center Presentation to Asociación de Bancos de México,
Building Partnership with Mexico E. Anthony Wayne Career Ambassador (ret.) Public Policy Fellow, Wilson Center FAR MD&DC, 02/18 firstname.lastname@example.org @EAnthonyWayne Building a Partnership with Mexico U.S.-Mexico
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