Political Science 146: Mass Media and Public Opinion
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1 Political Science 146: Mass Media and Public Opinion Loren Collingwood University of California February 24, 2014
2 HRC Favorability Polls in the News
3 Polls in the News HRC Favorability Tough Senate Races
4 Selective Exposure and Media Effects People are increasingly able to sort themselves into more optimally congenial programming, regardless of their specific predispositions
5 Selective Exposure and Media Effects People are increasingly able to sort themselves into more optimally congenial programming, regardless of their specific predispositions Opportunities for choosing (media) should blunt the role the media play in changing attitudes
6 Selective Exposure and Media Effects People are increasingly able to sort themselves into more optimally congenial programming, regardless of their specific predispositions Opportunities for choosing (media) should blunt the role the media play in changing attitudes This militates against large aggregate effects associated with partisan news
7 Selective Exposure and Media Effects People are increasingly able to sort themselves into more optimally congenial programming, regardless of their specific predispositions Opportunities for choosing (media) should blunt the role the media play in changing attitudes This militates against large aggregate effects associated with partisan news Not enough of the general population pays attention to any one television channel (including news)
8 Selective Exposure and Media Effects People are increasingly able to sort themselves into more optimally congenial programming, regardless of their specific predispositions Opportunities for choosing (media) should blunt the role the media play in changing attitudes This militates against large aggregate effects associated with partisan news Not enough of the general population pays attention to any one television channel (including news) An active audience seeks out tv programming to fill needs and achieve goals, may actually diminish the influence of partisan news shows in a hyper choice media context
9 Limited Effects of Partisan News
10 Apparent Effects of Partisan News Does partisan news on cable TV affect viewers attitude extremity and political knowledge?
11 Apparent Effects of Partisan News Does partisan news on cable TV affect viewers attitude extremity and political knowledge? Pew Research data:
12 Apparent Effects of Partisan News Does partisan news on cable TV affect viewers attitude extremity and political knowledge? Pew Research data: 1. Regular viewers of any of the three major broadcast network TV shows
13 Apparent Effects of Partisan News Does partisan news on cable TV affect viewers attitude extremity and political knowledge? Pew Research data: 1. Regular viewers of any of the three major broadcast network TV shows 2. Regular viewers of Fox News Channel s opinionated talk shows (e.g., Billy O Reilly, Sean Hannity)
14 Apparent Effects of Partisan News Does partisan news on cable TV affect viewers attitude extremity and political knowledge? Pew Research data: 1. Regular viewers of any of the three major broadcast network TV shows 2. Regular viewers of Fox News Channel s opinionated talk shows (e.g., Billy O Reilly, Sean Hannity) 3. Regular viewers of MSNBC s opinionated talk shows (e.g., Rachel Maddow)
15 Apparent Effects of Partisan News Does partisan news on cable TV affect viewers attitude extremity and political knowledge? Pew Research data: 1. Regular viewers of any of the three major broadcast network TV shows 2. Regular viewers of Fox News Channel s opinionated talk shows (e.g., Billy O Reilly, Sean Hannity) 3. Regular viewers of MSNBC s opinionated talk shows (e.g., Rachel Maddow) 4. Respondents who claim to not regularly pay attention to any source of news, whet hers newspapers, TV, radio, or internet Then ask respondents their ideology and partisanship
16 Pew: Political Differences
17 Pew: Demographic Differences
18 Pew: Behavioral Differences
19 In the News
20 In the News
21 Does Fox News Underinform/Misinform? Earlier studies were done with cross-sectional surveys, so we do not actually know
22 Does Fox News Underinform/Misinform? Earlier studies were done with cross-sectional surveys, so we do not actually know Fairleigh Dickinson University study:
23 Does Fox News Underinform/Misinform? Earlier studies were done with cross-sectional surveys, so we do not actually know Fairleigh Dickinson University study: Survey respondents who said they watched Fox NEws far less likely to correctly answer questions about overthrow of Egyptian government in February 2011
24 Does Fox News Underinform/Misinform? Earlier studies were done with cross-sectional surveys, so we do not actually know Fairleigh Dickinson University study: Survey respondents who said they watched Fox NEws far less likely to correctly answer questions about overthrow of Egyptian government in February 2011 Compared to respondents who watch Sunday morning broadcast shows who were much more likely to answer the questions correctly
25 Does Fox News Underinform/Misinform? Earlier studies were done with cross-sectional surveys, so we do not actually know Fairleigh Dickinson University study: Survey respondents who said they watched Fox NEws far less likely to correctly answer questions about overthrow of Egyptian government in February 2011 Compared to respondents who watch Sunday morning broadcast shows who were much more likely to answer the questions correctly Use logistic regression to control for partisanship and other variables
26 Does Fox News Underinform/Misinform? Earlier studies were done with cross-sectional surveys, so we do not actually know Fairleigh Dickinson University study: Survey respondents who said they watched Fox NEws far less likely to correctly answer questions about overthrow of Egyptian government in February 2011 Compared to respondents who watch Sunday morning broadcast shows who were much more likely to answer the questions correctly Use logistic regression to control for partisanship and other variables Problem with selection bias: vitiates our ability to disentangle cause and effect: People who choose to watch Fox News may do so because they re biased partisans
27 Does Fox News Underinform/Misinform? Earlier studies were done with cross-sectional surveys, so we do not actually know Fairleigh Dickinson University study: Survey respondents who said they watched Fox NEws far less likely to correctly answer questions about overthrow of Egyptian government in February 2011 Compared to respondents who watch Sunday morning broadcast shows who were much more likely to answer the questions correctly Use logistic regression to control for partisanship and other variables Problem with selection bias: vitiates our ability to disentangle cause and effect: People who choose to watch Fox News may do so because they re biased partisans Partisans who watch Fox News may be different from partisans who do not watch Fox News
28 Does Fox News Underinform/Misinform? Earlier studies were done with cross-sectional surveys, so we do not actually know Fairleigh Dickinson University study: Survey respondents who said they watched Fox NEws far less likely to correctly answer questions about overthrow of Egyptian government in February 2011 Compared to respondents who watch Sunday morning broadcast shows who were much more likely to answer the questions correctly Use logistic regression to control for partisanship and other variables Problem with selection bias: vitiates our ability to disentangle cause and effect: People who choose to watch Fox News may do so because they re biased partisans Partisans who watch Fox News may be different from partisans who do not watch Fox News
29 Does Fox News Underinform/Misinform? Cross-sectional survey research cannot inform us of the counterfactual:
30 Does Fox News Underinform/Misinform? Cross-sectional survey research cannot inform us of the counterfactual: What would have happened in an alternate reality where Fox News does not exist? Would same Fox News viewers we observed know more or less about politics/misinformation if they lived in the alternate reality (where they weren t Fox News viewers)?
31 Does Fox News Underinform/Misinform? Cross-sectional survey research cannot inform us of the counterfactual: What would have happened in an alternate reality where Fox News does not exist? Would same Fox News viewers we observed know more or less about politics/misinformation if they lived in the alternate reality (where they weren t Fox News viewers)? Fundamental obstacle in causal inference (X causes Y) is that we can never simultaneously observe what actually happens and the counterfactual
32 Does Fox News Underinform/Misinform? Cross-sectional survey research cannot inform us of the counterfactual: What would have happened in an alternate reality where Fox News does not exist? Would same Fox News viewers we observed know more or less about politics/misinformation if they lived in the alternate reality (where they weren t Fox News viewers)? Fundamental obstacle in causal inference (X causes Y) is that we can never simultaneously observe what actually happens and the counterfactual So our research design needs to be appropriate...to the extent possible
33 Differences Among Partisan Viewers Partisan viewers (Fox and MSNBC) are simply different than broadcast and inattentives:
34 Differences Among Partisan Viewers Partisan viewers (Fox and MSNBC) are simply different than broadcast and inattentives: Fox News and MSNBC talk show viewers see more political bias in media reports
35 Differences Among Partisan Viewers Partisan viewers (Fox and MSNBC) are simply different than broadcast and inattentives: Fox News and MSNBC talk show viewers see more political bias in media reports Trust in news outlets is more narrow
36 Differences Among Partisan Viewers Partisan viewers (Fox and MSNBC) are simply different than broadcast and inattentives: Fox News and MSNBC talk show viewers see more political bias in media reports Trust in news outlets is more narrow Prefer programming that shares their political point of view
37 Differences Among Partisan Viewers Partisan viewers (Fox and MSNBC) are simply different than broadcast and inattentives: Fox News and MSNBC talk show viewers see more political bias in media reports Trust in news outlets is more narrow Prefer programming that shares their political point of view Thus, partisan news consumers are selective in choosing sources of information.
38 Active Audience Theory Theoretical account based on uses and gratifications paradigm that emerged during minimal effects period of media research
39 Active Audience Theory Theoretical account based on uses and gratifications paradigm that emerged during minimal effects period of media research Individuals are guided by needs and goals when they consume media; but individuals are to varying degrees susceptible to media influence
40 Active Audience Theory Theoretical account based on uses and gratifications paradigm that emerged during minimal effects period of media research Individuals are guided by needs and goals when they consume media; but individuals are to varying degrees susceptible to media influence Selected programming may affect viewers, but not necessarily in the ways intended by program s creator (i.e., accept or reject)
41 Active Audience Theory Theoretical account based on uses and gratifications paradigm that emerged during minimal effects period of media research Individuals are guided by needs and goals when they consume media; but individuals are to varying degrees susceptible to media influence Selected programming may affect viewers, but not necessarily in the ways intended by program s creator (i.e., accept or reject) The goal here is not to explain why people watch what they watch, but rather: whether preferences regarding media programming condition the effects and reach of partisan news coverage
42 Active Audience Theory Theoretical account based on uses and gratifications paradigm that emerged during minimal effects period of media research Individuals are guided by needs and goals when they consume media; but individuals are to varying degrees susceptible to media influence Selected programming may affect viewers, but not necessarily in the ways intended by program s creator (i.e., accept or reject) The goal here is not to explain why people watch what they watch, but rather: whether preferences regarding media programming condition the effects and reach of partisan news coverage
43 Motivational Model of Self Exposure Motivation: Any goal-directed preference regarding what to watch on TV:
44 Motivational Model of Self Exposure Motivation: Any goal-directed preference regarding what to watch on TV: 1. Desire to defend one s political attitudes
45 Motivational Model of Self Exposure Motivation: Any goal-directed preference regarding what to watch on TV: 1. Desire to defend one s political attitudes 2. Obtain accurate information
46 Motivational Model of Self Exposure Motivation: Any goal-directed preference regarding what to watch on TV: 1. Desire to defend one s political attitudes 2. Obtain accurate information 3. Be entertained
47 Motivational Model of Self Exposure Motivation: Any goal-directed preference regarding what to watch on TV: 1. Desire to defend one s political attitudes 2. Obtain accurate information 3. Be entertained
48 Motivational Model of Self Exposure
49 Expectation 1: People view TV programming through the lenses of their own partisan motivations
50 Expectation 1: People view TV programming through the lenses of their own partisan motivations Expectation 2: In the presence of choice, entertainment seekers select out of news audiences and attenuate partisan news effects in the process
51 Expectation 1: People view TV programming through the lenses of their own partisan motivations Expectation 2: In the presence of choice, entertainment seekers select out of news audiences and attenuate partisan news effects in the process Expectation 3: On average, partisan news shows have smaller effects on news seekers than on entertainment seekers
52 Expectation 1: People view TV programming through the lenses of their own partisan motivations Expectation 2: In the presence of choice, entertainment seekers select out of news audiences and attenuate partisan news effects in the process Expectation 3: On average, partisan news shows have smaller effects on news seekers than on entertainment seekers
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