2008 election: on eve of convention

Transcription

1 August 19, election: on eve of convention Democracy Corps

2 Methodology and Overview Eight surveys are cited throughout this presentation: Democracy Corps presidential battleground survey of 1,348 likely voters conducted August 12-17, 2008 in 18 battleground states. Democracy Corps targeting data from Democracy Corps national survey of 2,000 likely voters conducted June 22-25, 2008 and Democracy Corps national survey of 1,004 likely voters conducted July 21-24, Democracy Corps national survey of 1,004 likely voters conducted July 21-24, 2008 with an oversample of 735 likely voters in presidential battleground states. Democracy Corps congressional battleground survey of 1,600 likely voters conducted July 27-31, Democracy Corps survey of 750 likely voters in Macomb County, Michigan, conducted July 14-22, Additionally, six focus groups were conducted in Macomb County during June and July as well as a parallel survey of 764 likely voters in Michigan conducted July 14-21, Democracy Corps Inner Mountain West Survey of 1,003 likely Hispanic voters conducted July 11-August 3, 2008.

3 The New Electorate Page 3

4 Obama s overperforming groups 2. This column shows the change in Obama s net favorability rating between our April/May and June/July combined runs. 3. This column shows the change in Obama s net performance between our April/May and June/July combined runs. 4. These columns show the net difference between Obama s current margin and previous Democrats margins. 5. These columns show the difference between Obama s vote share and Congressional Democrats vote share or the percent of each group that selfidentifies as a Democrat or independent who leans towards the Democrats. 6. Based on Democracy Corps surveys of 600 adults age conducted March 30 April 9 and July 15-29, Based on Democracy Corps surveys of 600 adults age conducted March 30 April 9 and July 15-29, Younger indicates respondents under 50. Older indicates respondents over 50.

5 Decently performing Obama groups August 20, 2008

6 Challenged progressive and Democratic voters August 20, 2008

7 Challenging but improving conservative Democratic Obama voters

8 Challenged swing Obama voters August 20, 2008

9 Where Obama is gaining ground August 20, 2008

10 Where Obama is losing ground August 20, 2008

11 Presidential Battleground Survey August 12-17, 2008 Page 11

12 States in the presidential battleground: blue and red states Total State List Alaska Colorado Florida Indiana Iowa Michigan Missouri Minnesota Montana Nevada New Hampshire New Mexico North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Pennsylvania Virginia Wisconsin BLUE STATES Deep Blue Minnesota Wisconsin Light Blue RED STATES Deep Red Michigan New Hampshire Pennsylvania Light Red Alaska Indiana Montana North Carolina North Dakota Colorado Florida Iowa Missouri Nevada New Mexico Ohio Virginia

13 States in the presidential battleground: regions Total State List Alaska* Colorado Florida Indiana Iowa Michigan Missouri Minnesota Montana Nevada New Hampshire* New Mexico North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Pennsylvania Virginia Wisconsin Rust Belt Ohio Pennsylvania Michigan Indiana Upper Midwest Iowa Minnesota Wisconsin Libertarian West Montana North Dakota Southwest Colorado New Mexico Nevada Border States Missouri Virginia Deep South North Carolina Florida Bush 2004 States Alaska Colorado Florida Indiana Iowa Missouri Montana Nevada New Mexico North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Virginia Kerry 2004 States Michigan Minnesota New Hampshire Pennsylvania Wisconsin *Note: Alaska and New Hampshire are not included in regional list as they are the only states from the northeast and Pacific regions respectively.

14 The Presidential Candidates in Battleground States Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with 100 meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; 0 meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 50 meaning not particularly warm or cold. Cool Warm Net August John McCain July Barack Obama August July *Note: From Democracy Corps presidential battleground survey of 1,348 likely voters conducted August 12-17, Page 14

15 Match-up stable in presidential battleground states Now let me ask you again about your vote for president, but with candidate names. If the election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican John McCain, Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr, or Independent candidate Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote? Democrat Barack Obama Lean Democrat Barack Obama Republican John McCain Lean Republican John McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr July *Note: From Democracy Corps presidential battleground survey of 1,348 likely voters conducted August 12-17, 2008 August Page 15

16 Reciprocal base consolidation and battle for independents If the election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican John McCain, Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr, or Independent candidate Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote? Democrat Barack Obama Lean Democrat Barack Obama Republican John McCain Lean Republican John McCain Independent Ralph Nader Lean Independent Ralph Nader Libertarian Bob Barr Lean Libertarian Bob Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr Democrats Independents Republicans *Note: From Democracy Corps presidential battleground survey of 1,348 likely voters conducted August 12-17, 2008 Page 16

17 Obama on edge of Electoral College advantage, but close If the election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican John McCain, Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr, or Independent candidate Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote? Obama Lean Obama McCain Lean McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr Blue States Deep Blue States Light Blue States Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr Red States Deep Red States Light Red States *Note: From Democracy Corps presidential battleground survey of 1,348 likely voters conducted August 12-17,

18 Voter Choice Scales: parallel worlds no greater intensity Obama Not Obama Loyalist Supporter Conditional Vulnerable Winnable In Reach Peripheral Unreachable McCain Not McCain Loyalist Supporter Conditional Vulnerable Winnable In Reach Peripheral Unreachable *Note: From Democracy Corps presidential battleground survey of 1,348 likely voters conducted August 12-17, 2008 Page 18

19 Similar levels of interest by party As you know, there will be elections in November for president and other offices. On a scale of one to ten, with one meaning NOT AT ALL interested and ten meaning VERY INTERESTED, please tell me how interested you are in this year s elections. Very Interested (10) Interested Obama Voters Interested McCain Voters *Note: From Democracy Corps presidential battleground survey of 1,348 likely voters conducted August 12-17, 2008

20 Democrats more enthusiastic than Republicans and independents In thinking about the presidential election that will be held this November, compared to previous elections, are you more enthusiastic about voting than usual or less enthusiastic? More Enthusiastic Less Enthusiastic More Less More Less More Less Democrats Independents Republicans *Note: From Democracy Corps presidential battleground survey of 1,348 likely voters conducted August 12-17, 2008

21 Voters less comfortable with Obama than with Democrat as president On a scale of zero to ten, how comfortable would you feel with Barack Obama as your President? A ten would mean you feel very comfortable. A zero would mean you feel not at all comfortable. On a scale of zero to ten, how comfortable would you feel with a Democrat as your President? A ten would mean you feel very comfortable. A zero would mean you feel not at all comfortable to to Comfortable Uncomfortable Comfortable Uncomfortable Obama Democrat *Note: From Democracy Corps presidential battleground survey of 1,348 likely voters conducted August 12-17, 2008 Page 21

22 Little difference between McCain and generic Republican On a scale of zero to ten, how comfortable would you feel with John McCain as your President? A ten would mean you feel very comfortable. A zero would mean you feel not at all comfortable. On a scale of zero to ten, how comfortable would you feel with a Republican as your President? A ten would mean you feel very comfortable. A zero would mean you feel not at all comfortable to to Comfortable Uncomfortable Comfortable Uncomfortable McCain Republican *Note: From Democracy Corps presidential battleground survey of 1,348 likely voters conducted August 12-17, 2008 Page 22

23 Big messaging Page 23

24 America s strength lies with the middle class Now I'm going to read you some more pairs of statements from the presidential candidates. After I read each pair, regardless of who you would vote for, please tell me after hearing these statements if you would be more likely to vote for Democrat Barack Obama or Republican John McCain. Barack Obama is determined to change George Bush's Washington, which stood by while the American middle class declined and America lost respect. Obama knows America's strength lies in a growing middle class, yet people are squeezed by stagnant incomes, outsourced jobs and skyrocketing costs. McCain supports even more unregulated outsourcing and corporate tax cuts. Obama favors middle class tax cuts, ending tax breaks for companies that export jobs overseas and giving them to businesses that create jobs here and fast track investments in energy independence. Obama's goal is to renew America as a middle class, independent and strong nation. OR John McCain is determined to make America strong again. He knows America's strength lies in the individual capacities of people and in our entrepreneurial spirit but big government and special interests are making life harder for Americans. McCain is a maverick who will slash pork barrel spending and stand up to the special interests. Obama promises change but he's inexperienced and plans big tax increases that will kill jobs. McCain supports broad tax cuts and trying all new avenues to achieve energy independence. By finishing the job in Iraq to bring stability to the region and respect for our soldiers, he can restore an America that is strong at home and in the world. *Note: From Democracy Corps presidential battleground survey of 1,348 likely voters conducted August 12-17, 2008 Page 24

25 America s strength lies with the middle class Obama statement strongly McCain statement strongly Obama statement not so strongly McCain statement not so strongly Obama statement *Note: From Democracy Corps presidential battleground survey of 1,348 likely voters conducted August 12-17, 2008 McCain statement Page 25

26 Change for Bush s Washington and renewal of middle class America (If more likely to support Obama) Now, please tell me what stood out the most to you in Barack Obama s statement? Obama will change Bush's Washington that stood by while the middle class declined and America lost respect 27 Middle class tax cuts 27 Renew America as a middle class, independent and strong nation 22 The middle class is squeezed by low incomes, outsourced jobs and soaring costs 20 Ending tax breaks for companies that export jobs and give them to businesses that create jobs here 15 Fast track investments in energy independence 10 McCain supports unregulated outsourcing and coporate tax cuts *Note: From Democracy Corps presidential battleground survey of 1,348 likely voters conducted August 12-17, 2008 Page 26

27 McCain s Iraq message stands out (If more likely to support McCain) Now, please tell me what stood out the most to you in John McCain s statement? Finishing the job in Iraq to bring stability to the region and respect for our soldiers 25 Trying all new avenues to achieve energy independence 15 Bringing back a strong America, in the world and at home McCain is a maverick who will slash pork barrel spending and stand up to special interests Obama promises change but is inexperienced, will raise taxes and kill jobs Support for broad tax cuts 9 9 America's strength lies in individual capacities and entrepreneurial spirit 8 John McCain is determined to make America strong again 7 Big government and special interests are making life harder for Americans *Note: From Democracy Corps presidential battleground survey of 1,348 likely voters conducted August 12-17, 2008 Page 27

28 Clean-up Washington to get rid of lobbyist rule and partisan divide Now I'm going to read you some more pairs of statements from the presidential candidates. After I read each pair, regardless of who you would vote for, please tell me after hearing these statements if you would be more likely to vote for Democrat Barack Obama or Republican John McCain. Barack Obama will fight to change Bush's gridlocked Washington where nothing gets done on the economy, health care and energy because the lobbyists rule and old partisan divisions produce the same old politics. Obama knows America's strength lies in a growing middle class, now squeezed by low incomes, outsourced jobs and soaring costs. McCain supports even more outsourcing and corporate tax cuts. Obama favors middle class tax cuts, ending tax breaks for companies that export jobs overseas and giving them to companies that create jobs here and fast track investments in energy independence. Obama's goal is to renew America as a middle class, independent and strong nation. OR John McCain is determined to make America strong again. He knows America's strength lies in the individual capacities of people and in our entrepreneurial spirit but big government and special interests are making life harder for Americans. McCain is a maverick who will slash pork barrel spending and stand up to the special interests. Obama promises change but he's inexperienced and plans big tax increases that will kill jobs. McCain supports broad tax cuts and trying all new avenues to achieve energy independence. By finishing the job in Iraq to bring stability to the region and respect for our soldiers, he can restore an America that is strong at home and in the world. *Note: From Democracy Corps presidential battleground survey of 1,348 likely voters conducted August 12-17, 2008 Page 28

29 Clean-up Washington to get rid of lobbyist rule and partisan divide Obama statement strongly McCain statement strongly Obama statement not so strongly McCain statement not so strongly Obama statement *Note: From Democracy Corps presidential battleground survey of 1,600 likely voters conducted August 12-17, 2008 McCain statement Page 29

30 Change for Washington and acknowledgement of middle class squeeze (If more likely to support Obama) Now, please tell me what stood out the most to you in Barack Obama s statement? Obama will change Bush's gridlocked Washington where nothing gets done on the economy, healthcare and energy 24 The middle class is squeezed by low incomes, outsourced jobs and soaring costs Support for middle class tax cuts Renew America as a middle class, independent and strong nation 17 America's strength lies in a growing middle class 15 Lobbyists rule Washington and old partisan divisions produce the same old politics Ending tax breaks for companies that export jobs overseas and giving them to businesses that create jobs here Fast track investments in energy independence McCain supports even more outsourcing and corporate tax cuts *Note: From Democracy Corps presidential battleground survey of 1,348 likely voters conducted August 12-17, 2008 Page 30

31 Our successful energy message: finally Now I'm going to read you some more pairs of statements. After I read each pair, regardless of who you would vote for, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. Barack Obama says we need a new energy plan that frees America from dependence on big oil and recharges our economy by fast tracking production of clean, alternative energy like wind and solar power, which will create good American jobs. For 26 years, John McCain has been in Washington voting against investments in alternative energy to protect the oil companies. We need to end the tax breaks for big oil companies and use that money to develop alternative energy. We should drill in areas where oil companies already have leases they're not using. And we should require car companies to build more efficient cars to save drivers money. OR John McCain says we are dangerously dependent on foreign oil because Democrats like Barack Obama oppose efforts to drill for new American oil. McCain s policies will expand U.S. oil production to reduce gas prices and build more refineries to expand our oil capacity here in the US. We should build new nuclear power plants and invest in clean coal technology, and expand alternative energy sources to achieve independence. This shouldn t be a choice between more oil production or alternative energy. We should do both because alternative energy is the future, but right now we live in an oil and gas economy and we need more American oil. *Note: From Democracy Corps presidential battleground survey of 1,600 likely voters conducted August 12-17, 2008 Page 31

32 Must end big oil tax breaks Obama statement strongly McCain statement strongly Obama statement not so strongly McCain statement not so strongly Obama statement *Note: From Democracy Corps presidential battleground survey of 1,348 likely voters conducted August 12-17, 2008 McCain statement Page 32

33 Interest in fast-tracking the development of alternative energy August 20, 2008 (If more likely to support Obama) Now, please tell me what stood out the most to you in Barack Obama s statement? Developing alternative energy Fast tracking production of clean alternative energy Ending tax breaks for big oil companies Free America from dependence on big oil Require car companies to build more efficient cars John McCain has voted against investments in alternative energy to protect the oil companies Drill in the areas where oil companies already have leases 10 Creating jobs 8 Recharge our economy *Note: From Democracy Corps presidential battleground survey of 1,348 likely voters conducted August 12-17, 2008 Page 33

34 McCain s Iraq message stands out (If more likely to support McCain) Now, please tell me what stood out the most to you in John McCain s statement? We are dangerously dependent on foreign oil because Barack Obama opposes efforts to drill for new American oil 35 Expand U.S. oil production to reduce gas prices and increase oil capacity in the U.S 27 Expand alternative energy sources to achieve independence 27 Build new nuclear power plants 19 Should not have to choose between oil production or alternative energy 15 Invest in clean coal technology *Note: From Democracy Corps presidential battleground survey of 1,348 likely voters conducted August 12-17, 2008 Page 34

35 Bipartisan drilling compromise Now I'm going to read you some more pairs of statements. After I read each pair, regardless of who you would vote for, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. Barack Obama says we need a new energy plan that frees America from dependence on big oil and recharges our economy by fast tracking production of clean, alternative energy like wind and solar power, which will create good American jobs. For 26 years, John McCain has been in Washington voting against investments in alternative energy. Obama has endorsed a bipartisan compromise that will increase domestic production by allowing some new offshore drilling while also repealing tax breaks for Big Oil to pay for investments in alternative energy and hybrid cars. But John McCain opposes the compromise because, he says, it would raise taxes on the oil companies. OR John McCain says we are dangerously dependent on foreign oil because Democrats like Barack Obama oppose efforts to drill for new American oil. McCain s policies will expand U.S. oil production to reduce gas prices and build more refineries to expand our oil capacity here in the US. We should build new nuclear power plants and invest in clean coal technology, and expand alternative energy sources to achieve independence. This shouldn t be a choice between more oil production or alternative energy. We should do both because alternative energy is the future, but right now we live in an oil and gas economy and we need more American oil. *Note: From Democracy Corps presidential battleground survey of 1,600 likely voters conducted August 12-17, 2008 Page 35

36 Bipartisan drilling compromise Obama statement strongly McCain statement strongly Obama statement not so strongly McCain statement not so strongly Obama statement *Note: From Democracy Corps presidential battleground survey of 1,348 likely voters conducted August 12-17, 2008 McCain statement Page 36

37 Energy tax credit proposal Now I'm going to read you some more pairs of statements. After I read each pair, regardless of who you would vote for, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. Barack Obama says we need a new energy plan that frees America from dependence on big oil and recharges our economy by fast tracking production of clean, alternative energy like wind and solar power, which will create good American jobs. Now, Obama has proposed giving American families a $1,000 energy tax rebate and has recently endorsed a bipartisan compromise that will increase domestic production by allowing some new offshore drilling while also repealing tax breaks for Big Oil to pay for investments in alternative energy and hybrid cars. But John McCain opposes the compromise because, he says, it would raise taxes on the oil companies. OR John McCain says we are dangerously dependent on foreign oil because Democrats like Barack Obama oppose efforts to drill for new American oil. McCain s policies will expand U.S. oil production to reduce gas prices and build more refineries to expand our oil capacity here in the US. We should build new nuclear power plants and invest in clean coal technology, and expand alternative energy sources to achieve independence. This shouldn t be a choice between more oil production or alternative energy. We should do both because alternative energy is the future, but right now we live in an oil and gas economy and we need more American oil. *Note: From Democracy Corps presidential battleground survey of 1,348 likely voters conducted August 12-17, 2008 Page 37

38 Energy tax credit proposal Obama statement strongly McCain statement strongly Obama statement not so strongly McCain statement not so strongly Obama statement *Note: From Democracy Corps presidential battleground survey of 1,348 likely voters conducted August 12-17, 2008 McCain statement Page 38

39 Alternative energy fast-track, ending oil company tax breaks stand out (If more likely to support Obama) Now, please tell me what stood out the most to you in Barack Obama s statement? Fast tracking production of clean alternative energy 34 Repeal tax breaks for Big Oil to pay for investments in alternative energy and hybrid cars Giving American families a $1,000 energy tax rebate Free America from dependence on big oil 15 Creating jobs 7 Obama endorsed a bipartisan compromise to increase domestic production by allowing some offshore drilling 6 Recharge our economy 4 John McCain opposes the compromise because it would raise taxes on the oil companies *Note: From Democracy Corps presidential battleground survey of 1,348 likely voters conducted August 12-17, 2008 Page 39

40 Back to Macomb: study of Reagan Democrats

41 Methodology and Overview In the months of June and July, 2008, Democracy Corps went back to Macomb County, Michigan. 6 focus groups with Democratic defectors from Macomb County 4 groups of Democratic voters holding back from supporting Obama 2 groups of defectors who are not voting for Obama but who are voting for a generic Democrat presidential candidate or a Democratic congressional candidate, or who identify as a Democrat Macomb County survey of 750 likely voters Parallel Michigan state poll of 764 likely voters

42 Obama only at 39 percent in Macomb If the election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican John McCain, Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr, or Independent candidate Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote? Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr Macomb County Michigan *Note: From Democracy Corps survey of 764 likely Michigan voters conducted July 14-17, 2008 and Democracy Corps survey of 750 likely Macomb County voters conducted July 14-22, Page 42

43 Presidential voting history Democratic 50 Republican 39 John Kennedy Richard Nixon Walter Mondale Ronald Reagan Bill Clinton Bob Dole Al Gore George W. Bush John Kerry George W. Bush Barack Obama John McCain * *Note: From Democracy Corps survey of 750 likely Macomb County voters conducted July 14-22, Other data from county clerk s records.

44 Named presidential: suburban voters Now let me ask you again about your vote for president, but with candidate names. If the election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican John McCain, Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr, or Independent candidate Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote? Barack Obama (total) John McCain (total) Ralph Nader (total) Bob Barr (total) Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr Michigan *Note: from Democracy Corps national survey conducted July 21-24, 2008, of 1004 likely voters. Asked a 4-way vote including Ralph Nader and Bob Barr. Not available for Macomb County. National* Page 44

45 The Problem Page 45

46 Obama underperforming among conservative Democratic groups August 20, 2008 Now let me ask you again about your vote for president but with candidate names. I know it is a long way off, but if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain, for whom would you vote? Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr Democrats White, Non-College Democrats Mod/Cons Democrats White Union Members *Note: From Democracy Corps survey of 750 likely Macomb County voters conducted July 14-22, Other data from county clerk s records. Page 46

47 Race? Page 47

48 Macomb voters less comfortable with Obama as president On a scale of zero to ten, how comfortable would you feel with Barack Obama/A Democrat/John McCain/A Republican as your President? A ten would mean you feel very comfortable. A zero would mean you feel not at all comfortable to to to to Comfortable Uncomfortable Comfortable Uncomfortable Obama Democrat *Note: From Democracy Corps survey of 750 likely Macomb County voters conducted July 14-22, Other data from county clerk s records. Comfortable Uncomfortable Comfortable Uncomfortable McCain Page 48 Republican

49 Obama doubts: Tax attack more potent than Wright Now, let me read you a statement Democrat Barack Obama makes about some of the important issues facing our country. Please tell me whether this statement would make you much more likely, somewhat more likely, a little more likely, no more likely, or less likely to support Barack Obama in this year's presidential election. Rev. Wright Attack Serious doubts Very serious doubts Taxes Attack Serious doubts Very serious doubts His pastor Jeremiah Wright says America is to blame for the AIDS virus, that blacks should sing, quote "God Damn America," instead of God Bless America and that we brought the nine-eleven attacks upon ourselves. He even compared US Marines fighting in Iraq to the Romans who persecuted Jesus. Yet Obama attended Wright's sermons for 20 years without ever protesting Total serious doubts In the Illinois state senate, he voted to raise taxes more than three hundred times, and in Congress, Obama voted for the largest tax increase in U.S. history. Now he wants to repeal the Bush tax cuts and raise the Social Security tax by another trillion dollars. Obama's tax increases will damage the economy and hurt the pocketbooks of average Americans Total serious doubts *Note: From Democracy Corps survey of 750 likely Macomb County voters conducted July 14-22, Other data from county clerk s records. Page 49

50 No hidden power to Wright attack Now let me ask you again : if the election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican John McCain, Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr, or Independent candidate Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote? Barack Obama (total) John McCain (total) Ralph Nader (total) Bob Barr (total) Wright Messaging Initial Tax Messaging Initial Wright Messaging Revote Tax Messaging Revote *Note: Asked of half-sample E-split and F-Split in Democracy Corps survey of 750 likely Macomb County voters conducted July 14-22, 2008.

51 Most disagree that Obama will put blacks ahead of other Americans Now, I am going to read you a list of words and phrases people use to describe political figures. For each word or phrase, please tell me whether it describes Barack Obama very well, well, not too well, or not well at all Will put the interests of black Americans ahead of other. Not well at all Not too well Very well Well Macomb Michigan National *Note: From Democracy Corps survey of 764 likely Michigan voters conducted July 14-17, 2008 and Democracy Corps survey of 750 likely Macomb County voters conducted July 14-22, National survey of 1,004 likely voters conducted July 21-24, Page 51

52 Defectors no more likely to see Obama as similar to Jackson August 20, 2008 I am now going to read you a list of names and I'd like you to tell me where on a scale from 0 to 10 you would place Barack Obama if a 10 means he is EXACTLY LIKE the person who's name I just read and 0 means he is NOTHING LIKE the person who's name I just read. You can use any number between 0 and 10. Exactly Like (10 on a 10-point scale) Somewhat Like (6-9 on a 10-point scale) All 8 38 John F. Kennedy Defectors 8 28 Jesse Jackson All 4 19 Defectors 3 18 *Note: Democratic defectors are voters who chose any Democrat (congressional, generic presidential, or identify as Democrat in party ID, but who do not chose Obama in named presidential vote. From Democracy Corps survey of 750 likely Macomb County voters conducted July 14-22, Other data from county clerk s records.

53 Desperate For Change Page 53

54 Voters pessimistic about direction of the nation Generally speaking, do you think things in this country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? Right Direction Wrong Track Right Direction Wrong Track Right Direction Wrong Track Right Direction Wrong Track Macomb Michigan National *Note: From Democracy Corps survey of 764 likely Michigan voters conducted July 14-17, 2008 and Democracy Corps survey of 750 likely Macomb County voters conducted July 14-22, National survey of 1,004 likely voters conducted July 21-24, Page 54

55 Why is Michigan on the wrong track? Now, I am going to read you a list of phrases that people use to describe why Michigan is going in the wrong direction. After I read the list, please tell me which TWO come closest to your own views of why the country is going in the wrong direction. Jobs and work being outsourced to China and India 39 Economy The rising cost of living including gas prices and groceries 34 The middle class squeezed while the economy is weakening 14 Security America bogged down and spending billions in Iraq Our dependence on foreign oil and global warming 9 16 High taxes, pork-barrel spending and government not under control 21 Reform Washington dominated by special interests and corruption 14 Our leaders doing nothing about the health care problem 8 *Note: From Democracy Corps survey of 750 likely Macomb County voters conducted July 14-22, Page 55

56 Macomb voters biggest economic concern: outsourcing of jobs August 20, 2008 Now I am going to read you a list of problems relating to Michigan's economy. After I read the list, please tell me which is the most important problem facing the state's economy First choice Second choice Outsourcing of jobs to other countries Prices rising for gas, health care and food The lack of quality jobs The housing crisis, foreclosures and falling home prices 9 21 The middle class squeezed while CEOs and the wealthy get tax breaks Too much government spending in Lansing 8 17 High taxes 5 12 *Note: From Democracy Corps survey of 750 likely Macomb County voters conducted July 14-22, Page 56

57 Economy: Macomb voters blame Bush, trade and Granholm Now I am going to read you a list of names and groups. After I read the list please tell me which TWO are most to blame for Michigan's economic problems. George W. Bush 39 NAFTA and international trade agreements Jennifer Granholm The Big Three automakers, G.M., Ford, and Chrysler 21 Big corporations 19 Labor unions 18 The U-A-W *Note: From Democracy Corps survey of 750 likely Macomb County voters conducted July 14-22, Page 57

58 The Squeezed Middle Class: Beyond Minorities Page 58

59 Macomb voters see American middle class in decline, not with opportunity First Statement: America has been a middle class country but now the middle class is financially squeezed and in decline. Second Statement: America is a country where there is still broad opportunity to become middle class. Statement one strongly Statement one not so strongly Statement two strongly Statement two not so strongly Middle Class Squeezed Middle Class Opportunity Middle Class Squeezed Middle Class Opportunity Macomb Michigan *Note: From Democracy Corps survey of 764 likely Michigan voters conducted July 14-17, 2008 and Democracy Corps survey of 750 likely Macomb County voters conducted July 14-22, Page 59

60 Blame global trade, CEOs and politicians not minorities First Statement: The middle class today is more threatened by global trade, CEOs who care more about their companies than their own country and politicians who support free trade agreements backed by corporate special interests. Second Statement: The middle class today is more threatened by affirmative action for minorities who don't take responsibility for their own lives and by illegal immigrants getting free government benefits. Statement one strongly Statement one not so strongly Statement two strongly Statement two not so strongly Threatened by global trade, CEOs and special interests *Note: From Democracy Corps survey of 750 likely Macomb County voters conducted July 14-22, Threatened by affirmative action and illegal immigration Page 60

61 What is the problem? Page 61

62 Many want to vote for Obama, but suspicion is holding them back August 20, 2008 I go on Barack Obama s site a couple of times a week and I really want to vote for him, and I want to see change in this country. I checked on factcheck.org to see who is lying about what everyday, and it is a great site, factcheck.org, they send s out, but you know I remain undecided who am I going to vote for. Do I need to be suspicious about this because of maybe the color and the whole fundamental change in the way America thinks because, let s face it one way, we ve been Caucasian for the whole entire country s life, you know, our whole life, and now we are going to change to having a black president. He doesn t play the race card. He distances himself from all those types of influences, but are we going to be surprised after things change? I guess I have fears. I don t know why I do. Younger, non-college man Page 62

63 Obama s main attributes Now, I am going to read you a list of words and phrases people use to describe political figures. For each word or phrase, please tell me whether it describes Barack Obama very well, well, not too well, or not well at all. Not well at all Not too well Very well Well Will bring the right kind of change Makes me feel hopeful about the future Macomb Defectors Macomb Michigan Macomb Defectors Macomb Michigan Macomb Defectors Will keep America Strong Macomb Michigan

64 Macomb voters more pessimistic about Obama on security issues Now I am going to ask you something different. I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think Democrat Barack Obama or Republican John McCain would do a better job with this issue. McCain much better McCain somewhat better Obama much better Obama somewhat better Net Macomb Defectors National Security Macomb National Macomb Defectors The Situation in Iraq Macomb National

65 Security and New Patriotism Page 65

66 Slightly more wary of waiting too long for withdrawal Now I'm going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. First statement strongly Second statement strongly +1 First statement somewhat Second statement somewhat I'm more concerned the Republicans will wait too long to withdraw our troops from Iraq I'm more concerned the Democrats will leave Iraq too quickly *Note: From Democracy Corps national survey of 1,004 likely voters conducted July 21-24, 2008 Page 66

67 Worry Republicans will stay too long Now I m going to read you some statements. Please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own views, even if neither is exactly right: I'm more concerned that the Republicans w ill w ait too long to w ithdraw our troops from Iraq I'm more concerned that the Democrats w ill leave Iraq too quickly Petraeus Report Petraeus Report # Mar-07 Jul-07 Nov-07 Mar-08 Jul-08 Net Difference *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted over the last several months. Page 67

68 Start Reducing Troops Now I m going to read you some statements. Please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own views, even if neither is exactly right: 57 Need to start reducing US troops in Iraq Petraeus Report # We must stay the course in Iraq Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Net Difference *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted over the last few months. Page 68

69 Highest priority should be Afghanistan Now I'm going to read you some more pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. First statement strongly Second statement strongly First statement somewhat Second statement somewhat Our highest priority for security should be Afghanistan Our highest priority for security should be Iraq *Note: From Democracy Corps national survey of 1,004 likely voters conducted July 21-24, 2008 Page 69

70 Need to commit to defeating Taliban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan Now I'm going to read you some more pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. First statement strongly Second statement strongly First statement somewhat Second statement somewhat We should be reducing our troop commitment in Iraq in order to defeat the Taliban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan We should carry on to victory in Iraq to defeat Al Qaeda there and send what troops are necessary to Afghanistan *Note: From Democracy Corps national survey of 1,004 likely voters conducted July 21-24, 2008 Page 70

71 End war in Iraq and refocus on Afghanistan Now I'm going to read you some more pairs of statements. After I read each pair, regardless of who you would vote for, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. Obama statement strongly McCain statement strongly Obama statement not so strongly McCain statement not so strongly Barack Obama says that the war in Iraq is costing us trillions and distracting us from the bigger threat of Afghanistan. As president Obama will put our overall security first, end the war in Iraq and reorient America's priorities to address the threat from Afghanistan as well as problems here at home. John McCain says that the surge strategy is succeeding in reducing violence in Iraq - the central front in the war on terror. John McCain knows how to win wars. He supported the surge strategy from the start and will turn around the war in Afghanistan once victory in Iraq has been achieved. *Note: From Democracy Corps national survey of 1,004 likely voters conducted July 21-24, 2008

72 U.S. should work with the Iraqi government to develop clear goals Now I'm going to read you some more pairs of statements. After I read each pair, regardless of who you would vote for, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. Barack Obama says that we need to work with the Iraqi government to develop a plan with clear goals to get our troops out of Iraq so that we can refocus our efforts and resources toward the greater threat of Afghanistan and toward solving our problems here at home. Even the prime minister of Iraq said he supports a short term plan to remove US troops from Iraq over McCain's plan for a prolonged US presence in Iraq. OR John McCain says that Iraq is the central battleground of the war against terrorism. McCain says a condition-based withdrawal from Iraq is only a possibility because the surge Obama voted and campaigned against has succeeded. At this critical time in the war we have a choice, we can not afford to set a fixed timetable for the withdrawal of our troops that will embolden our enemies and increase the risks faced on our soil. *Note: From Democracy Corps national survey of 1,004 likely voters conducted July 21-24, 2008 Page 72

73 U.S. should work with the Iraqi government to develop clear goals Obama statement strongly McCain statement strongly Obama statement not so strongly McCain statement not so strongly Obama statement McCain statement *Note: From Democracy Corps national survey of 1,004 likely voters conducted July 21-24, 2008 Page 73

74 Obama Patriotism Statement Prevails Now I'm going to read you a pair of statements from the two leading presidential candidates. Regardless of who you would vote for, please tell me which statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. right. 6000% 4000% % 0% Barack Obama says: My story is only possible in America - the son of a single mother and an immigrant father, able to work my way from a humble upbringing to become a candidate for president. I owe this country everything, and that is why I am committed to ensuring we change course and do what's necessary to move closer to our founding ideals - like investing more in our schools to expand opportunity; encouraging more young people to serve their country in the military or their communities; and investing in alternative energy so we can be good stewards of our land and reduce our dependence on foreign oil. John McCain says: I proudly served in the American military and spent six years as a prisoner of war in Vietnam. It is hard for me to understand people who refuse to wear a flag on their lapel, or who say they are sometimes not proud of our country. My love for this country is an important part of why I am in public service, and I will express that as President: by ensuring our troops achieve victory in Iraq; by cutting taxes to encourage the kind of hard work that built up this country; and by bringing family values more back into our schools, since the family is the bedrock of our national strength.

75 Congressional Battleground Page 75

76 Competitive district types: Republican-held Suburban (12 of 50): 21% 26% Middle Atlantic, 20% East North Central Connecticut 4 Illinois 10 Michigan 9 Minnesota 3 Nevada 3 New Jersey 7 Rural/Small Town (9 of 50): 18% 43% Mountain States, 24% Deep South Alabama 2 Alaska 1 Arizona 1 Idaho 1 Kentucky 2 Urban/Rural (5 of 50): 12% 40% East North Central, 37% Deep South Alabama 3 Louisiana 4 Illinois 18 Pennsylvania 3 Indiana 3 New York 25 Ohio 14 Pennsylvania 6 Virginia 10 Virginia 11 Washington 8 New Mexico 2 New York 29 Virginia 5 Wyoming 1 Suburban/Rural (6 of 50): 14% 31% West North Central, 22% Deep South Colorado 4 Maryland 1 Missouri 6 Exurban (4 of 50): 8% August 20, % East North Central, 31% Pacific, 19% Deep South California 4 Illinois 11 Florida 24 Michigan 7 Urban (9 of 50): 16% 41% Deep South, 26% Mountain States Arizona 3 Florida 13 Florida 15 Florida 21 Florida 25 Missouri 9 New York 26 North Carolina 8 New Jersey 3 New Mexico 1 New York 13 Ohio 1 Urban/Suburban (5 of 50): 11% 42% East North Central, 36% Deep South Florida 8 Ohio 15 Ohio 16 Pennsylvania 15 Virginia 2

77 Competitive district tiers: Republican-held districts Tier 1 (23 of 50): 44% Alaska 1 Arizona 1 Colorado 4 Connecticut 4 Illinois 10 Illinois 11 Louisiana 4 Michigan 7 Michigan 9 Minnesota 3 New Jersey 3 New Jersey 7 New Mexico 1 New York 13 New York 25 North Carolina 8 Tier 1 (continued) Ohio 15 Ohio 16 Virginia 11 Washington 8 Nevada 3 Pennsylvania 3 Missouri 6 Tier 2 (8 of 50): 17% Alabama 2 Florida 24 Missouri 9 New Mexico 2 New York 26 New York 29 Ohio 1 Virginia 2 Tier 3 (19 of 50): 39% Alabama 3 Arizona 3 California 4 Florida 8 Florida 13 Florida 15 Florida 21 Florida 25 Idaho 1 Illinois 18 Indiana 3 Kentucky 2 Maryland 1 Ohio 14 Pennsylvania 6 Pennsylvania 15 Virginia 5 Virginia 10 Wyoming 1

78 A change election in the battleground Page 78

79 Defining the election Page 79

80 Focus on jobs, middle class helps Democrats (named candidates) Now, I am going to read you what some people say are some differences between the candidates running for Congress in your area. For each, please tell me if it is a difference that makes you MUCH MORE LIKELY to vote for the (Democratic candidate), SOMEWHAT MORE LIKELY or is it a difference that DOESN'T MAKE YOU ANY MORE LIKELY to vote for the (Democratic candidate). Maybe it is NOT A REAL DIFFERENCE between the (Democratic candidate) and the (Republican incumbent/candidate). Let me read you the first difference. The (Republican incumbent/candidate) will cut taxes for corporate special interests and the very wealthiest. The (Democratic candidate) will cut taxes for the middle class and working people. The (Republican incumbent/candidate) supports outsourcing of jobs and unfair free trade agreements. The (Democratic candidate) prioritizes creating American jobs. The (Republican incumbent/candidate) will continue Bush's direction on the economy. The (Democratic candidate) will bring change. The (Republican incumbent/candidate)'s energy policies are for the oil companies. The (Democratic candidate)'s energy policies are for consumers and for achieving energy independence. The (Republican incumbent/candidate) will continue Bush's direction. The (Democratic candidate) will bring a new direction. The (Republican incumbent/candidate) will work with John McCain to continue most of Bush's policies. The (Democratic candidate) will work with Barack Obama to bring change. Much more likely Total more likely *Note: From Democracy Corps congressional battleground survey of 1,600 likely voters conducted July 27-31, Actual incumbent inserted unless open seat. Page 80

81 Working for middle class, change drive Democrats congressional vote Definitions that drive the final vote: Odds Ratio Party ID 1.94 Republicans will work for corporate interests and the very wealthiest Democrats will work for the middle class. Republicans will work with John McCain to continue most of 1.25 Bush's policies. Democrats will work with Barack Obama to bring change. Republicans will continue Bush's direction on Iraq and the economy Democrats will bring change. Republicans will continue Bush's direction. Democrats will bring change Definitions that drive candidate s thermometer: Party ID 1.32 Republican energy policies are for the oil companies. Democratic 1.12 energy policies are for consumers and for achieving energy independence. *Note: From Democracy Corps congressional battleground survey of 1,600 likely voters conducted July 27-31, Actual incumbent inserted unless open seat. Page 81