OCTOBER. Presidential Election. Chartbook

Transcription

1 OCTOBER 2016 Presidential Election Chartbook 1

2 Bottom Line Clinton increases lead in post-debate polls, including key swing states such as Florida, Colorado, Pennsylvania and Ohio Low number of undecided voters and disparate views on the candidates underlie growing polarization Our state-level vote-share model still projects a ocrat victory in Electoral College despite national estimates implying a tighter race Congress likely to be divided according to current projections Post-election zeitgeist unlikely to be conducive to major reforms and cooperation DISCLAIMER: The economic-based election forecasts contained herein reflect economic conditions at the time of the forecast and are subject to change in tandem with economic conditions.

3 Candidate perceptions Voter doubts about candidates personalities and qualifications have resulted in two highly unpopular candidates Net Favorability, % Why Voters Dislike the Candidates, % Biden Obama Pence Kaine ocratic Party % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Is not trustworthy Is corrupt Is racist Does not have the right experience to be president Does not know enough about the issues Has extreme political views Is sexist Clinton Johnson % 30% Changes positions when politically convenient Lacks experience Is not trustworthy Stein Trump Republican Party % 10% 0% Says one thing but does another Out of touch with average Americans Does not share my values Clinton Is corrupt Changes positions when politically convenient Out of touch with average Americans Trump Sources: BBVA Research, Huffpost Pollster & Morning Consult

4 A polarized time Fewer swing voters and stronger candidate preference suggests growing polarization Actions of Registered Voters on Election Day, % Undecided and Voting for Other Candidate, % Vote for the candidate from the other political party than one you usually support Reluctantly vote for the candidate of the policitical party you usually support Vote for candidate from one party for president and from other parties for other offices Vote for a third party or independent candidate Vote on other offices and questions but not vote for president Not vote at all 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Very likely Somewhat likely Not too likely Not at all likely Unsure 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Sources: BBVA Research, George Washington University Battleground Poll (Aug 28-Sept. 1) & Huffpost Pollster

5 Birds of a feather Trump Supporters Share of friends supporting Trump 3% 13% 38% 4% 44% Share of friends supporting Clinton A lot Some Just a few None Clinton Supporters Share of friends supporting Trump 47% 2% 17% 34% Share of friends supporting Clinton 6% 31% 21% 11% 41% 42% 40% Sources: BBVA Research & Pew Research *Results based on % of registered voters saying how many of their close friends support either candidate

6 Implied outcomes from polls Post-debate polls show Clinton building a comfortable margin Election Results vs. Polls, spread Key States Voting Probabilities, % Election result Poll avg. Sept-Nov 2016* ocrats GOP Sources: BBVA Research, RCP, NYT, PW, PEC, DK, FiveThirtyEight & HP *2016: implied results from polling average margins as of October in 2008 and 2012 elections

7 Econometric projections National projections imply tight race, but state-level projections still forecast ocrat victory (326 to 209 EV) BBVA Research National Vote-Share Results* State-Level Vote Share Projection 65% 60% Actual Dec Oct "De Facto" Incumbent GOP Majority 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% ocrat Majority Source: BBVA Research

8 Rep +10 Rep +8 Rep +6 Rep +4 Rep Congressional elections While electorate favors a ocratic Congress, most likely outcome is a divided Congress and White House Generic Congressional Poll, % Senate Election Probabilities, % <1% % 2% % 10% % Even 21% 20% % 7% 10 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct % <1% ocrats Republicans Undecided (rhs) Sources: BBVA Research, Real Clear Politics & New York Times

9 Challenges for next presidential term Post-election mood unlikely to be one ripe for compromise Congressional Bills by Status, %* Outstanding Issues for 115 th Session of Congress 12% Enacted laws Passed resolutions Got a vote 115th Session 10% Supreme Court nominee Vacancy on Supreme Court needs to be filled to restore voting majority 8% U.S. Economic Competiveness Low productivity growth, inequality and inclusion, demographic shifts, weak investment, policy uncertainty, education, taxes 6% Trans-Pacific Partnership Congressional authorization of the multi-lateral trade agreement likely to carry over from Obama's term 4% Energy reform Bill to modernize the nation s electric grid and expand energy efficiency programs 2% Immigration Reform Address DAPA/DACA, calls to providing naturalization/citizenship and upgrading visa system. 0% Student Debt Lower the burden on the growing number of individuals unable to fulfill their current obligations Sources: BBVA Research & GovTrack *by first year of session

10 Previous Presidential Election Chartbooks Connect with Us: BBVA ResearchUSA BBVA Research USA DISCLAIMER This document was prepared by Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria s (BBVA) BBVA Research U.S. on behalf of itself and its affiliated companies (each BBVA Group Company) for distribution in the United States and the rest of the world and is provided for information purposes only. Within the US, BBVA operates primarily through its subsidiary Compass Bank. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein refer to the specific date and are subject to changes without notice due to market fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources, believed to be correct by the Company concerning their accuracy, completeness, and/or correctness. This document is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to acquire or dispose of an interest in securities.