Why did PSOE lose in the general elections in Spain in 2011? An analysis of electoral behaviour
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1 Why did PSOE lose in the general elections in Spain in 2011? An analysis of electoral behaviour Tomáš Došek Instituto de Iberoamérica Dept. of Political Science and Public Administration University of Salamanca EUDO Dissemination Conference Elections in Europe in Times of Crisis, November 28-29, 2013, European University Institute, Florence, Italy
2 Stucture of the Presentation Context Research Design Theoretical framework and hypothesis Data, method and variables Results Conclusions 2013 EUDO Dissemination Conference European University Institute November 28-29, /13
3 Context General elections in Spain (November 2011) PSOE electorally punished one of the last elections in Europe and one of the harshest lost Fatigue (8 years in government), economic crisis, unemployment, bad communication 93.3% of the people considered that the economic situation in the last 4 year worsened (a lot) More of a defeat of PSOE than victory of PP PSOE lost more than 4m votes (2008) PP improved only moderately 2013 EUDO Dissemination Conference European University Institute November 28-29, /13
4 Context: electoral results Votes % valid Votes % valid PP 10,866, ,278, PSOE 7,003, ,289, IU 1,686, , Other parties 4,459, ,911, Total valid 24,348,886 25,734,863 Abstention 11,113,050 (31.06%) 9,172,740 (26.15%) 2013 EUDO Dissemination Conference European University Institute November 28-29, /13
5 Research Design Restricted variance problem Fraile & Lewis-Beck (2013) - Exogenize economic perceptions (agreggate economic measures) - Pooled cross-sectional design - Economy matters Different research question => What factors led the socialist voters from 2008 to abandon electorally PSOE in 2011? Martín & Urquizu-Sancho (2012) Kennedy (2012), Chari (2013) - More qualitative studies 2013 EUDO Dissemination Conference European University Institute November 28-29, /13
6 Theoretical framework and hypothesis Traditional voting behaviour literature, recent studies on elections in the time of crisis, qualitative studies of the last elections Test of rival models for the explantation of voting behaviour of PSOE voters (2008) Crisis responsibility Who is to blame? (Anderson & Hecht 2010; Karyotis & Rüdig 2013; Tillman 2011; Bartels 2011) Evaluation of PSOE performance Retrospective voting (Fioirina 1981; Bartels 2011; Dalton & Anderson 2011) PP more capable to handle unemployment Valence issues (Clarke & Whitten 2013; Clarke et al. 2011; Martín and Urquizu-Sancho 2012) New Primer Minister Personalization of politics (Rico 2009 and 2010; Rohrschneider & Schmitt-Beck 2010) 15-M movement Social movilization & Discontent with politics (Chari 2013) Few analysis of the last elections (Fraile & Lewis-Beck 2013; Martín & Urquizu-Sancho 2012; Kennedy 2012; Chari 2013) 2013 EUDO Dissemination Conference European University Institute November 28-29, /13
7 Data, method and variables Panel survey n 7711 (Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas, October 2011-January 2012) Limited sample: voters of PSOE from 2008 who voted for PP, IU, other party, did not vote or remained loyal to PSOE => Dependent variable (Nominal, 2 + categories) Independent variables: Pre-electoral: evaluation of the PSOE government (3C), preference for the future Prime Minister (3C), capacity to handle the most important problem (3C) Post-electoral: responsibility for the economic crisis (4C), opinion about the 15-M movement (int.) Control variables: proximity to PSOE (dummy), functioning of democracy (int.), ideology (int.), sex (dummy), age (int.), educational level (3C) Multinomial logistic regression 2013 EUDO Dissemination Conference European University Institute November 28-29, /13
8 Results All parties: Proximity to PSOE PP: IU: Next Prime Minister, Retrospective evaluation of PSOE, Capacity on unemployment, Approval of 15-M activities (negatively) Retrospective evaluation of PSOE, Approval of 15-M movement (positive) Other parties Retrospective evaluation of PSOE, Capacity on unemployment, Next Prime Minister (to a lesser extent) Abstention Next Prime Minister, Capacity on unemployment, Responsibility for the crisis 2013 EUDO Dissemination Conference European University Institute November 28-29, /13
9 PP IU Other political party Abstention b Odds Odds Odds Odds b b b ratio ratio ratio ratio Sex (RC: Man) Woman (-0.219) (0.234) (0.202) (0.295) Age ** *** 0.96 (0.008) (0.009) (0.007) (0.012) Educational level (RC: None or primary) Secondary ** (0.256) (0.295) (0.257) (0.335) Higher ** ** (0.274) (0.295) (0.267) (0.412) Ideology 0.318*** (0.085) (0.093) (0.083) (0.104) Proximity to PSOE (RC: No) Yes ** *** *** *** (0.234) (0.276) (0.225) (0.329) Responsibility for crisis (RC: Other factor) Government ** 3.04 (0.324) (0.413) (0.341) (0.397) International economic situation * (0.302) (0.351) (0.311) (0.435) Banks (0.29) (0.338) (0.274) (0.413) Next prime minister (RC: Rubalcaba) Rajoy 2.604*** ** (0.318) (0.559) (0.376) (0.442) Other person 1.26*** * (0.32) (0.386) (0.305) (0.394) Evaluation of PSOE (RC: Good) Regular * * (0.55) (0.542) (0.478) (0.642) Bad 1.392* ** ** (0.544) (0.578) (0.496) (0.676) Capacity on unemployment (RC: PSOE) Partido Popular 0.988** ** * (0.33) (0.384) (0.345) (0.624) Other party ** ** (0.308) (0.282) (0.269) (0.555) Functioning of democracy (0.049) (0.055) (0.045) (0.073) Approval of 15-M ** *** (0.042) (0.06) (0.043) (0.055) Constant (0.894) (1.032) (0.906) (1.066) Nagelkerke R 2 McFadden R 2 N Robust standard erros in paretheses *** p < 0.001; ** p < 0.01; * p < 0.05 Reference category (RC) for the dependent variable is PSOE and for independent variables are indicated in parentheses and bold
10 Results: Proximity to PSOE Probability of vote Probability of vote Ideology Ideology 2013 EUDO Dissemination Conference European University Institute November 28-29, /13
11 Results: Responsibility Responsability: Government Responsibility: International Economic Situation Probability of vote Probabily of vote Ideology Ideology Responsibility: Banks Responsibility: Other Probability of vote Probabililty of vote Ideology Ideology 2013 EUDO Dissemination Conference European University Institute November 28-29, /13
12 Results: Evaluation of PSOE & Capacity on unemployment Probability of vote Probability of vote Good Regular Evalutation of PSOE in Government Bad PSOE PP Capacity on Labour Politics Other 2013 EUDO Dissemination Conference European University Institute November 28-29, /13
13 Results: Next PM & Approval of 15-M Probability of vote Probability of vote Rubalcaba Rajoy Other Next Prime Minister Approval of 15M 2013 EUDO Dissemination Conference European University Institute November 28-29, /13
14 Conclusions Different alternatives different reasons bilateral opossition Combination of short and long-term factors Responsibility for the crisis rather limited explanatory power Justification of multinomial logistic regression in multiparty/multi-option context Other case studies of incumbent parties punished in Hungary, Bulgary, Ireland (LeDuc & Pammett) 2013 EUDO Dissemination Conference European University Institute November 28-29, /13
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16 Why did PSOE lose in the general elections in Spain in 2011? An analysis of electoral behaviour Tomáš Došek Instituto de Iberoamérica Dept. of Political Science and Public Administration University of Salamanca EUDO Dissemination Conference Elections in Europe in Times of Crisis, November 28-29, 2013, European University Institute, Florence, Italy
Why did PSOE lose in the general elections in Spain in 2011? An analysis of electoral behaviour
Why did PSOE lose in the general elections in Spain in 2011? An analysis of electoral behaviour Tomáš Došek Instituto de Iberoamérica University of Salamanca Fonseca 2 37002 Salamanca Spain Telephone:
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