NBCNews/WSJ/MaristPolMichiganLikelyRepublicanPrimaryVoters. March2016

Transcription

1 NBCNews/WSJ/MaristPolMichiganLikelyRepublicanPrimaryVoters March2016

2 How the Survey was Conducted Nature of the Sample: NBC News/WSJ/Marist Michigan Poll of 2,570 Adults This survey of 2,570 adults was conducted March 1 st through March 3 rd, 2016 by The Marist Poll sponsored and funded in partnership with NBC News and The Wall Street Journal. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the state of Michigan were interviewed in English by telephone using live interviewers. Landline telephone numbers were randomly selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the state of Michigan from ASDE Survey Sampler, Inc. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to its population. Respondents in the household were randomly selected by first asking for the youngest male. To increase coverage, this landline sample was supplemented by respondents reached through random dialing of cell phone numbers from Survey Sampling International. Both samples were matched by telephone number to a voter registration list for the state. Voter information was appended to each matched case. Assistance was provided by Luce Research for data collection and L2 for voter registration information. After the interviews were completed, the two samples were combined and balanced to reflect the 2013 American Community Survey 5-year estimates for age, gender, income, race and region. Results are statistically significant within ±1.9 percentage points. There are 2,229 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within ±2.1 percentage points. There are 877 voters in the potential Republican primary electorate. The potential Republican primary electorate in Michigan includes all voters who prefer to vote in the Republican presidential primary and those who identify as Republicans or Republican leaning independents without a primary preference. There are 1,030 voters in the potential Democratic primary electorate. The potential Democratic primary electorate in Michigan includes all voters who prefer to vote in the Democratic presidential primary and those who identify as Democrats or Democratic leaning independents without a primary preference. The results for these subsets are statistically significant within ±3.3 percentage points and ±3.1 percentage points, respectively. There are 482 likely Republican primary voters and 546 likely Democratic primary voters defined by a probability turnout model which determines the likelihood respondents will participate in the 2016 Michigan Republican/Democratic Presidential Primary based upon their chance of vote, interest in the election, and past election participation. The results for these subsets are statistically significant within ±4.5 percentage points and ±4.2 percentage points, respectively. The error margin was not adjusted for sample weights and increases for cross-tabulations. NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Michigan March

3 Michigan Adults Michigan Registered Voters Michigan Potential Republican Electorate Michigan Likely Republican Primary Voters Michigan Potential Democratic Electorate Michigan Likely Democratic Primary Voters Party Identification Political Ideology Tea Party Supporters Race Region Household Income Marital Status Evangelical Christian White Evangelical Christians U.S. Military Veteran Interview Type NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Michigan Tables of Likely Republican Primary Voters Nature of the Sample - Michigan Michigan Adults Michigan Registered Voters Col % Col % Democrat n/a 3 Republican n/a 2 Independent n/a 3 Other n/a Very liberal n/a Liberal n/a n/a 3 Conservative n/a 2 Very conservative n/a n/a Men 4 4 Women 5 5 Under or older to to to or older 2 2 White 7 7 African American Latino Other Wayne County Detroit Oakland and Macomb Counties 2 2 Southeast 2 2 Southwest North Central-Upper Peninsula Less than $50, $50,000 or more 4 5 Not college graduate 6 6 College graduate 3 3 Married 4 5 Not married 5 5 Yes 3 3 No Practice a Religion 5 5 Does not Practice a Religion 5 4 Yes No 9 9 Landline 4 4 Cell Phone 5 5 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Michigan Adults. Interviews conducted March 1st through March 3rd, 2016, n=2570 MOE +/- 1.9 percentage points. Michigan Registered Voters: n=2229 MOE +/- 2.1 percentage points. Totals may not add to 10 due to rounding. NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Michigan March

4 Michigan Potential Republican Electorate Michigan Likely Republican Primary Voters Party Identification Past Participation* Political Ideology Tea Party Supporters Race Region Household Income Marital Status Evangelical Christian White Evangelical Christians U.S. Military Veteran Interview Type Nature of the Sample - Michigan Michigan Potential Republican Electorate Michigan Likely Republican Primary Voters Col % Col % Democrat Republican 6 6 Independent 3 3 Other Yes 7 8 No 2 Very liberal Liberal 3 3 Conservative 4 4 Very conservative 3 3 Men 5 5 Women 4 4 Under or older to to to or older 3 3 White 9 9 African American Latino Other Wayne County Detroit 1 1 Oakland and Macomb Counties 2 2 Southeast 2 2 Southwest 2 2 North Central-Upper Peninsula 2 Less than $50, $50,000 or more 6 6 Not college graduate 5 5 College graduate 4 4 Married 6 6 Not married 3 3 Yes 4 4 No Practice a Religion 6 6 Does not Practice a Religion 3 3 Yes No 8 8 Landline 4 5 Cell Phone 5 5 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Michigan Potential Republican Electorate. Interviews conducted March 1st through March 3rd, 2016, n=877 MOE +/- 3.3 percentage points. Michigan Likely Republican Primary Voters: n=482 MOE +/- 4.5 percentage points. Totals may not add to 10 due to rounding. NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Michigan March

5 2016MichiganRepublicanpresidentialprimaryincludingthosewhoareundecidedyetleaningtowardacandidateorvotedabsentee DonaldTrump TedCruz MarcoRubio JohnKasich Uncommited Other Undecided LikelyRepublicanPrimary Voters MichiganLikelyRepublican PrimaryVoters IntensityofSupport Stronglysupport Somewhatsupport PartyIdentification Republican Independent Conservative-Very conservative Conservative 3 2 Veryconservative 3 4 TeaPartySupport TeaPartySupporters 3 2 HouseholdIncome Lessthan$50,000 $50,000ormore Notcolegegraduate Colegegraduate Under45 45orolder Men Women MaritalStatus Maried Notmaried WhiteEvangelicalChristians WhiteEvangelical Christians 3 2 PracticeaReligion DoesnotPracticeaReligion InterviewType Landline CelPhone NBCNews/WSJ/MaristPolMichiganLikelyRepublicanPrimaryVoters.InterviewsconductedMarch1stthroughMarch3rd,2016,n=482MOE+/-4.5percentagepoints.Totalsmaynotaddto10 duetorounding. *PastParticipationreferstoparticipationinapreviousMichiganRepublicanPresidentialPrimary. NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Michigan March

6 DonaldTrump TedCruz MarcoRubio JohnKasich BenCarson Uncommited Other Undecided LikelyRepublicanPrimary Voters MichiganLikelyRepublican PrimaryVoters IntensityofSupport Stronglysupport Somewhatsupport PartyIdentification Republican Independent Conservative-Very conservative Conservative Veryconservative TeaPartySupport TeaPartySupporters HouseholdIncome Lessthan$50,000 $50,000ormore Notcolegegraduate Colegegraduate Under45 45orolder Men Women MaritalStatus Maried Notmaried WhiteEvangelicalChristians WhiteEvangelical Christians PracticeaReligion DoesnotPracticeaReligion InterviewType Landline CelPhone MichiganRepublicanpresidentialprimaryincludingthosewhoareundecidedyetleaningtowardacandidateorvotedabsentee[withBenCarson] NBCNews/WSJ/MaristPolMichiganLikelyRepublicanPrimaryVoters.InterviewsconductedMarch1stthroughMarch3rd,2016,n=482MOE+/-4.5percentagepoints.Totalsmaynotaddto10 duetorounding. *PastParticipationreferstoparticipationinapreviousMichiganRepublicanPresidentialPrimary. NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Michigan Tables of Likely Republican Primary Voters NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Michigan March

7 Wouldyousayyoustronglysupport<candidate>,somewhatsupport<candidate>,ordoyouthinkyoumightvotedifferentlyonPrimaryDay? Stronglysupport Somewhatsupport Mightvotediferently Unsure RepublicanLikelyVoters MichiganLikelyRepublicanPrimaryVoters withacandidatepreference DonaldTrump 7 2 PrimarySupport TedCruz 6 2 MarcoRubio Republican PartyIdentification Independent Conservative-Veryconservative TeaPartySupport TeaPartySupporters NorthCentral-UpperPeninsula OaklandandMacombCounties 6 Region Southeast 5 3 Southwest 6 3 WayneCountyDetroit 7 2 Lessthan$50, HouseholdIncome $50,000ormore 5 2 Notcolegegraduate 6 2 Colegegraduate 5 3 Under orolder 6 2 Men 6 2 Women Maried MaritalStatus Notmaried WhiteEvangelicalChristians WhiteEvangelicalChristians PracticeaReligion DoesnotPracticeaReligion Yes 6 2 U.S.MilitaryVeteran No Landline InterviewType CelPhone 5 2 NBCNews/WSJ/MaristPolMichiganLikelyRepublicanPrimaryVoterswithaCandidatePreferenceincludingabsentee.InterviewsconductedMarch1stthroughMarch3rd,2016,n=425 MOE+/-4.8percentagepoints.Totalsmaynotaddto10 duetorounding. NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Michigan March

8 Whoisyoursecondchoiceforthe2016Republicanpresidentialprimary[includingthosewhoareundecidedyetleaningtowardacandidate]? TedCruz MarcoRubio JohnKasich BenCarson DonaldTrump Uncommited Other Undecided RepublicanLikelyVoters MichiganLikelyRepublicanPrimary VoterswithaCandidatePreference DonaldTrump PrimarySupport TedCruz 3 3 MarcoRubio Republican PartyIdentification Independent Conservative-Veryconservative 2 TeaPartySupport TeaPartySupporters 2 Lessthan$50, HouseholdIncome $50,000ormore Notcolegegraduate 2 2 Colegegraduate Under orolder Men 2 Women 2 1 Maried MaritalStatus Notmaried 2 2 WhiteEvangelicalChristians WhiteEvangelicalChristians PracticeaReligion 2 2 DoesnotPracticeaReligion Landline InterviewType CelPhone 2 NBCNews/WSJ/MaristPolMichiganLikelyRepublicanPrimaryVoterswithaCandidatePreference.InterviewsconductedMarch1stthroughMarch3rd,2016,n=372MOE+/-5.1percentagepoints.Totalsmaynotaddto10 duetorounding. NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Michigan March