Today. 1. Introduce V-Dem & Goals 2. Status 3. A look at preliminary data 4. Vision -If you want: Individual Indicators (329)

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2 Today 1. Introduce V-Dem & Goals 2. Status 3. A look at preliminary data 4. Vision -If you want: Individual Indicators (329)

3 1. Introducing V-Dem

4 The Problem Democracy: Mantra of Good Governance Annual at least $13 billions (2009) (D&G: OECD + the UN) Expenditures on measuring these outcomes: $??? FH $500,000 and Polity 120,000 annually Yet, Disagreement conceptualization & measurement

5 Prominent Indices Freedom House: PR, CL, Nations in Transit, Countries at the Crossroads Polity IV: Autocracy-Democracy scale Przeworski et al.: Dichotomy Democracy/Dictatorship Economist Intelligence Unit: Index w attitudes and imputation Bertelsmann Transformation: Index

6 ACLP Democracy Points are jittered to reveal density. 15 Freedom House combined index Combined Polity Score Vanhanen's Index of Competition

7 Problems Definition: agreement only on rule by the people Accuracy: narrow, generally one-dimensional Coverage: often limited to last few decades Sources: problematic Coding: questions broad, unknown biases Aggregation: methods unclear & unjustified Inter-coder reliability tests: rare

8 V-Dem: A Full Spectrum of Indicators Existing indices that cover most countries and many years measure only some of the attributes of democracy.

9 A Full Spectrum of Indicators V-Dem covers virtually all conceptions of democracy.

10 Seven distinct principles liberal participatory consensual electoral egalitarian deliberative majoritarian

11 Thicker overlapping conceptions liberal participatory consensual electoral egalitarian deliberative majoritarian (Areas of overlap not intended to be accurate.)

12 For Example.. (spacetree)

13 The V-Dem Approach Coverage: (+ updates) & 206 polities Democracy: Multidimensional (no Big-D score) Disaggregated: Components (~50), Indicators (~325) Data Quality: Facts coded by Country Coordinators (~150); Evaluative data (~175) in 12 areas, 5 expert per country/year/indicator point (22 million data points) Uncertainty: assessed by each expert coder Modal estimate: Weighted by coders uncertainty Validity: Extensive tests, including inter-coder reliability

14 2. Status

15 A Collaborative Effort 15 Principal Investigators: Michael Coppedge (University of Notre Dame), John Gerring (Boston University), Staffan Lindberg (University of Florida; University of Gothenburg). Project Managers: David Altman (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile), Michael Bernhard (University of Florida), Steven Fish (University of California, Berkeley), Allen Hicken (University of Michigan), Matthew Kroenig (Georgetown University), Kelly McMann (Case Western Reserve University), Pamela Paxton (University of Texas, Austin), Megan Reif (Univ of Colorado), Holli Semetko (Emory University), Svend-Erik Skaaning (Aarhus University, Denmark), Jeffrey Staton (Emory University), Jan Teorell (Lund University, Sweden) Methodologists: Adam Glynn (Harvard University), Daniel Pemstein (NDSU) Plus: Project Coordinators (3), International Advisory Board (17), Regional Managers (27), Research Assistants (7), Country Coordinators (200), Country Experts (3 000)

16 Main Phase Countries/Independent Territories (then updates bi-annually) 329 Indicators 152 Factual 177 Expert Ratings (5/Indicator, certainty score) 22.5mn data points on Democracy

17 Organization of Data Collection PIs/PMs Expert Data Factual Data Central RAs Sub-Regional Managers Regional RAs Country Experts Country RAs

18 Pilot Phase Completed countries on 6 continents Data Points on Varieties of Democracy 1. Mexico 2. Egypt 3. Japan 4. Sweden 5. Suriname 6. Ghana 7. USSR/Russia 8. Albania 9. Burma 10. South Africa 11. Switzerland 12. Yemen (N&S)

19 Main Phase 2012 and 2013 NReC: 13. Thailand 25. Senegal 1. Kenya 14. Lebanon 26. Mali 2. Tanzania 15. India 27. The Sudans 3. Uganda 16. Afghanistan MFA/DK: 4. Ethiopia 17. Kosovo 28. Burkina Faso 5. Nigeria CIDA: 29. Mozambique 6. Colombia 18. Bolivia 30. Benin 7. Venezuela 19. Honduras 31. Niger 8. Brazil 20. Peru 32. Ghana 9. Argentina 21. Haiti 33. Burma 10. Taiwan 11. South Korea 12. Philippines 22. Bangladesh 23. Pakistan 24. Vietnam 34. Nepal 35. Afghanistan 36. Bhutan 37. Cambodia 38. Indonesia 39. Nicaragua 40. Zambia 41. Zimbabwe +EC (42) +DK-RC (17) Total: 100 polities

20 Coding timetable

21 2. A look at preliminary data

22 Mali

23 Mali year National autonomy Polity Freedom House

24 Mali year National autonomy Freedom House Polity Liberal Democracy 1

25 Mali year Freedom House Liberal Democracy 1 Parties allowed Polity Legislative checks Civil Liberties

26 Mali Both improved More civil liberty But opposition parties banned French colony Traoré Legislature still weak Konaré Touré year Freedom House Liberal Democracy 1 Parties allowed Polity Legislative checks Civil Liberties

27 Mali year Liberal Democracy 1 Freedom of Expression Physical Integrity Civil Liberties Freedom of Movement Property Rights

28 Mali A 30-year gap year Liberal Democracy 1 Freedom of Expression Physical Integrity Civil Liberties Freedom of Movement Property Rights

29 Venezuela

30 Venezuela year National autonomy Polity Freedom House

31 Venezuela year National autonomy Freedom House Polity Liberal Democracy 1

32 Venezuela year Freedom House Liberal Democracy 1 Parties allowed Polity Legislative checks Civil Liberties

33 Liberal military Trienio Pérez Jiménez Venezuela Party politics continues with less civil liberty and weakened legislature Weak legislature despite some civil liberty Castro Gómez Punto Fijo democracy Chávez year Freedom House Liberal Democracy 1 Parties allowed Polity Legislative checks Civil Liberties

34 Venezuela Little variation in property rights Biggest decline has been In freedom of expression year Liberal Democracy 1 Freedom of Expression Physical Integrity Civil Liberties Freedom of Movement Property Rights

35 The project is feasible: In conclusion We measure aspects of democracy ignored by existing indices Our data = valid: When they measure similar concepts in a general way, they agree with existing indices. Our data = more specific: They enable us to drill down to identify concrete features of regimes.

36 3. Vision of V-Dem

37 37 Further Information: Project Description - builds on publication in Perspectives on Politics Codebook questions and response categories Countries definition of units ( countries ) + time span Taxonomy (in process) Democracy, Principles, Components, Sub- Components, and Indicators Pilot Project Data data for 12 countries (with pilot instrument)

38 Payoffs: General Validity drilling down & multiple validity tests 2. Precision highly specific comparisons 3. Certainty expert self-assessments and inter-coder reliability 4. Aggregation at multiple levels Principles, Components, Subcomponents, Indicators 5. Transparency and replicability everything (except identity of coders) is open-source. 6. Building international consensus perhaps less plagued by problems of validity, precision, and illegitimacy.

39 Additional Slides

40 Colombia

41 Colombia year National autonomy Polity Freedom House

42 Colombia year National autonomy Freedom House Polity Liberal Democracy 1

43 Colombia year Freedom House Liberal Democracy 1 Parties allowed Polity Legislative checks Civil Liberties

44 Colombia year Liberal Democracy 1 Freedom of Expression Physical Integrity Civil Liberties Freedom of Movement Property Rights

45 Kenya

46 Kenya year National autonomy Polity Freedom House

47 Kenya year National autonomy Freedom House Polity Liberal Democracy 1

48 Kenya year Freedom House Liberal Democracy 1 Parties allowed Polity Legislative checks Civil Liberties

49 Kenya year Liberal Democracy 1 Freedom of Expression Physical Integrity Civil Liberties Freedom of Movement Property Rights

50 Pakistan

51 Pakistan year National autonomy Polity Freedom House

52 Pakistan year National autonomy Freedom House Polity Liberal Democracy 1

53 Pakistan year Freedom House Liberal Democracy 1 Parties allowed Polity Legislative checks Civil Liberties

54 Pakistan year Liberal Democracy 1 Freedom of Expression Physical Integrity Civil Liberties Freedom of Movement Property Rights

55 South Korea

56 South Korea year National autonomy Polity Freedom House

57 South Korea year National autonomy Freedom House Polity Liberal Democracy 1

58 South Korea year Freedom House Liberal Democracy 1 Parties allowed Polity Legislative checks Civil Liberties

59 South Korea year Liberal Democracy 1 Freedom of Expression Physical Integrity Civil Liberties Freedom of Movement Property Rights

60 Philippines

61 Philippines year National autonomy Polity Freedom House

62 Philippines year National autonomy Freedom House Polity Liberal Democracy 1

63 Philippines year Freedom House Liberal Democracy 1 Parties allowed Polity Legislative checks Civil Liberties

64 Philippines year Liberal Democracy 1 Freedom of Expression Physical Integrity Civil Liberties Freedom of Movement Property Rights

65 V-Dem Status Report March 20-September 15, 2012 Michael Coppedge

66 Rapid Data Collection 133 days of data collection since May 7, 2012 Data has been submitted on 31 countries By 286 Country Experts 5.83 experts per country (all questions and years) So far, 872,295 ratings received (not counting pilot study) 3,255 per expert 6,559 per day 28,139 per country

67 Expert Recruitment To Date Invited Recruited 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 date

68 Mean Number of Experts per Country by Year Year

69 Venezuela Argentina Colombia Brazil Philippines Bolivia Bangladesh Ethiopia Peru Ghana Vietnam, Democratic Republic of Nigeria Korea, South Mali Senegal Haiti India Uganda Pakistan Korea, North Kosovo Vietnam, Republic of Afghanistan Tanzania Honduras Thailand Kenya Taiwan Lebanon Zimbabwe Nicaragua Bhutan Number of Experts Who Have Submitted Data Mean by Country (mean) coder_id

70 A measure of subjective confidence that individual experts have in their ratings: CONFIDENCE

71

72 Mean Confidence by Year Year

73 Mean Confidence by Country Zimbabwe North Korea Uganda Bangladesh Bhutan Argentina Venezuela Pakistan Ghana Brazil Colombia Global India Lebanon Tanzania Vietnam Thailand Bolivia South Korea Taiwan Philippines Haiti Honduras Afghanistan Kenya Ethiopia Nigeria Peru Myanmar Nicaragua Senegal South Vietnam Mali Kosovo (mean) AveConf

74 A combination of individual subjective uncertainty and agreement among experts: CERTAINTY

75 0 Distribution of Certainty: All countries and questions Mean Certainty

76 Mean Certainty by Year Year

77 Mean Certainty by Country ZWE PAK BGD VEN TZA BTN BOL GHA MMR PHL KOR BRA COL NIC HTI VNM XKX UGA LBN NGA IND TWN ARG PER MLI KEN THA VDR HND SEN AFG ETH (mean) cert

78 EXTRA SLIDES

79 0 50, , , ,000 Distribution of Disagreements among Experts Perfect agreement: 53% of ratings Disagreement by just one point: 33% of ratings 9% 3% disagreement

80 Example of Democratization

81 Democratization of Mexico year Polity01 Contestation01

82 Democratization of Mexico year Polity01 Contestation01 ParCohesive

83 Democratization of Mexico year Polity01 ParCohesive Contestation01 Platforms

84 Democratization of Mexico year Polity01 ParCohesive Contestation01 Platforms ParBarriers

85 Democratization of Mexico year Polity01 ParCohesive ParBarriers Contestation01 Platforms EMB

86 Democratization of Mexico year Polity01 ParCohesive ParBarriers Contestation01 Platforms EMB Registry

87 Democratization of Mexico year Polity01 ParCohesive ParBarriers Registry Contestation01 Platforms EMB CriticalMedia

88 USSR/Russia? year Civil Liberties Media Judiciary Contestation Civil Society Elections Party System

89 What Changed in Russia? Political and extrajudicial killings are practiced occasionally but they are often not incited and approved by the leaders of government year Political Murder Civil Society Organizations Range of Media Barriers to Parties Critical Media Harassment of Journalists

90 What Changed in Russia? The major media systematically ignore at least one political perspective The major media represent only the perspectives of the government and a government-approved, semi-official opposition party year Political Murder Civil Society Organizations Range of Media Barriers to Parties Critical Media Harassment of Journalists

91 What Changed in Russia? journalists [who] offend powerful actors are almost always harassed or worse and eventually are forced to stop year Political Murder Civil Society Organizations Range of Media Barriers to Parties Critical Media Harassment of Journalists

92 What Changed in Russia? party leaders face high levels of regular political harassment by authorities year Political Murder Civil Society Organizations Range of Media Barriers to Parties Critical Media Harassment of Journalists

93 What Changed in Russia? The major media [which had represented all perspectives] represent only the perspectives of the government and a government-approved, semi-official opposition party year Political Murder Civil Society Organizations Range of Media Barriers to Parties Critical Media Harassment of Journalists

94 What Changed in Russia? There is a crackdown, although not fully successful, on civil society organizations year Political Murder Civil Society Organizations Range of Media Barriers to Parties Critical Media Harassment of Journalists

95 We can also drill down to the coder level Not applicable Almost always Usually Do Members of Parliament in the same party generally vote together in the national legislature? Here, five coders ratings for North Yemen and its predecessors. (alpha=.848, mean certainty=81.4)

96 What Changed in Russia? There is a crackdown, although not fully successful, on civil society organizations year Political Murder Civil Society Organizations Range of Media Barriers to Parties Critical Media Harassment of Journalists

97 We can also drill down to the coder level Not applicable Almost always Usually Do Members of Parliament in the same party generally vote together in the national legislature? Here, five coders ratings for North Yemen and its predecessors. (alpha=.848, mean certainty=81.4)

98 Ghana!! year Civil Liberties Media Judiciary Contestation Civil Society Elections Party System

99 Egypt!! year Civil Liberties Media Judiciary Contestation Civil Society Elections Party System