Shanghai Cooperation Organization

Transcription

1 Shanghai Cooperation Organization Background Guide Written by: Sam Llaneta and Sruthi Venkatachalam: Case Western Reserve University The Shanghai Cooperation Organization began as cooperative political, economic, and security partnership between the People's Republic of China, Russian Federation, and several former Soviet central Asian republics. The origins of SCO can be traced back to agreements between these states extending back to Announced in 2001, the SCO was established in Among the organizational goals outlined in its charter are: strengthening mutual trust, friendship and good neighborliness between the member States; cooperation in the maintenance and strengthening of peace; combating terrorism separatism and extremism; encouraging efficient regional cooperation in [politics, trade, defence, environment protection and other areas of common interest]; facilitating comprehensive and balanced economic growth [and] social and cultural development; promoting enjoyment of human rights and fundamental freedoms; [and] cooperating in the prevention of international conflicts. 2 In practice this has meant that member states have cooperated to varying degrees on a diverse array of issues mostly related to security and economic development while some outlined goals like the promotion of human rights have been largely ignored by the autocratic regimes of many member states. The Council of Heads of State is chief decision making body of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). It meets annually to facilitate discussion on economic and defense policy and cooperation on these matters between member states. The SCO itself is an entirely voluntary association of countries that has does not have the ability to enforce decisions independently of the governments of its constituent states. 3 1 "The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation." About SCO SCO. Accessed December 09, Charter of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization September 19, Accessed December eng.sectsco.org/load/203013/. 3 Albert, Eleanor. "The Shanghai Cooperation Organization." Council on Foreign Relations. October 14, Accessed December 22,

2 I. Resolving Interstate Conflicts History Since the Second World War, the Asian continent has seen its share of interstate conflict. In fact, many ongoing conflicts have roots extending back to cold war era conflicts. The SCO itself can be seen as a revival of on the old Sino-Soviet alliance established in the wake of the Chinese Communist Party s victory in the Chinese Civil War. The two powers however soon became at odds over ideological differences and how to address the capitalist Western powers. In 1969, this ultimately boiled over into six month military conflict that many feared might escalate into an all-out war. Today the political situation is much different, and China and the post-soviet republics maintain relatively friendly relations. While major powers like Russia and China may have their own conflicts, the last time two major powers went to war with each other was WWII. Since then, the only full scale wars have either been fought between smaller countries, like the Six-Day War and Iran-Iraq War, or fought between a major power and a smaller country, like the Soviet-Afghan War and the 2003 Iraq War. There are many reasons for this change in the nature of wars since the mid-20 th century, but there are three reasons that should be of primary interest to this committee. The first is that technological developments like nuclear weapons gave given wars between large countries the potential to be more destructive than ever before, so the potential risks involved with war far outweigh any possible rewards. The second is that countries now have many opportunities to open dialogue to resolve disputes before they become violent. The last is a phenomena that has intensified greatly since the end of the Cold War. The rise of globalization in the 21 st century has so interconnected the economies of the world that any disruption may result is repercussions across the global economy further disincentivizing destructive armed conflicts. Current Situation The most particularly volatile situations are in the Korean Peninsula and the Middle East. Tensions between North and South Korea very suddenly escalated in 2017 when President Trump very aggressively and publicly condemned North Korea s nuclear weapon and ballistic missile programs sparking a feud between Trump and North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jongun 4. The situation in Korea has not deescalated since, and Russia and China have even taken to 4 Trump, Donald J. Twitter Post. September 23, 2017, 8:08 PM.

3 posturing against each other over influence in this conflict. 5 Another area of tension is the ongoing proxy-war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, a major U.S. ally. Brought to the forefront of geopolitical interest by the Arab Spring, this conflicts has been brewing well before a wave of popular uprisings swept through the Arab world. 6 Notable proxy-wars in this conflict include the ongoing Yemeni Civil War and the Syrian Civil War which began to be resolved in 2017 when Russia began withdrawing its troops as the Assad regime began to take the clear upper hand in the conflict. 7 While the Syrian Civil War was a clear victory for the SCO friendly Assad regime, the war left large parts of both Syria and Iraq in ruins while conflicts like the Yemeni civil war still rage across the region. Syria will need to be rebuilt, and stabilizing the situation in Iraq means that the U.S. will still maintain a large presence in the region. These are just two examples of the many conflicts that the Council of Heads of state may choose to address. While they are potentially the most pressing issues to the SCO as a whole, individual leaders are encouraged to take actions in other conflicts to advance their personal interests and the interests of their governments. In addition to military conflicts, there are also a number of territorial disputes both between member states that must be addressed in order for the SCO to move forward as a truly united body. The Jammu Kashmir region is a disputed territory between India and Pakistan. Ever since the partition, this issue has been hotly contested and remains even more fragile as now India and Pakistan are both nuclear powers. 8 In 2003, India and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire/ Pakistan promised to stop funding insurgents while India offered the insurgents amnesty if the renounced their militancy. However, tensions still remain incredibly high with skirmishes occurring with relative frequency. In 2010, there were major protests in the area once it was found that the Indian army had killed a demonstrator. In 2011, three Pakistani soldiers were killed across the border in a skirmish with India claiming that Pakistan had shot first. Military action and aggression has gone up considerably in the last few years, with the Indian government accusing the Pakistani government of waging a proxy war with India in Kashmir. Shots have been fired from both sides on numerous occasions. The citizens in this region live in a state of constant fear and tension. 9 Additionally, the Doklam territory is an area in Bhutan where China had begun extending a road. Not only does Bhutan claim that this is a violation of 5 Tarabay, Jamie. "Russia's power play in North Korea aimed at both China and US" CNN. December 06, Accessed December 10, Gause, F. Gregory, III. Beyond Sectarianism: The New Middle East Cold War. Report. Doha Center, The Brookings Institution. July 11, Accessed December 13, Burrows, Emma, and James Masters. "Putin orders withdrawal of Russian troops in visit to Syrian base." CNN. December 11, Accessed December 13, "The Kashmir Problem and Its Resolution." United States Institute of Peace. January 25, Accessed December 11, "Kashmir profile - Timeline." BBC News. July 21, Accessed December 11,

4 their borders, but having a road cutting towards a fragile part of the Indian subcontinent leaves India in a more vulnerable position. India and Bhutan have also had very close relation so the fact that China appears to be aggravating both leaves both in a very difficult position. China claims that the Doklam territory has historically always been a part of the Chinese territory so they are within their sovereignty to construct the road. They also accuse India of getting involved in an issue that is between China and Bhutan. This issue only exacerbates China and India s already tense relations. 10 Border flare-ups and distrust are common along the 1,314 kilometer border between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. This border remains relatively undefined and is the source for a good deal of conflict between the two states. Unfortunately, they rarely even open up dialogue and diplomatically solve the situation. In recent years, the only time the leaders of the two nations even meet extensively is at the SCO and tensions are clear. Their lack of dialogue has led to increased militaristic action with the nations taking radical action to secure the border. For instance, in March of 2016, Uzbekistan deployed military personnel to an unmarked section of the border and closed off a highway checkpoint to restrict access of Kyrgyz citizens. 11 Numerous countries have currently claimed area in the South China Sea, however, China has so far been the most aggressive actor in its claim. Their current policy of island building and naval patrols has left the area in a state of tension. The issue is over control of the oceans in the region since there are a number of islands and rocky formations that are believed to hold a wealth of minerals and oil. China backs its claim for the territory saying that historically the area has always been theirs. 12 While there are many ongoing disputes and conflicts between across Asia, economic initiatives are being made that hope to better connect states and insure peace for the future. OBOR, or One Belt One Road, is a massive infrastructure being developed by China. This infrastructure project has two components, a maritime trade network and the land trade network. The infrastructure project has power lines, ports, and railways among others. It is to develop a series of connections with other nations and help secure economic stability in the region. China has reached a place of global importance since their engagement in this project while also having an opportunity to secure and connect Beijing with their western states. Many nations have agreed to be a part of this project. Singapore s state-owned development board has agreed to partner with China Construction Bank, committing $22 billion to the OBOR projects. The Asian Infrastructure Bank and Silk Road Fund are massive methods by which this 10 "All you need to know about Doklam and the India-China border standoff." The Hindu. July 25, Accessed December 11, Orozobekova, Cholpon. "An Absence of Diplomacy: The Kyrgyz-Uzbek Border Dispute." The Diplomat. October 31, Accessed December 11, "Why is the South China Sea contentious?" BBC News. July 12, Accessed December 11,

5 project is being funded. The different pathways of the OBOR project help connect China to different regions such as Pakistan, Central Asia, Africa, and Europe. 13 This project has been particularly helpful for both China and the nations it is investing in. For instance, the CPEC project s Gwadar Port in Pakistan has helped Pakistan develop its maritime industry while also helping China reduce its distance to the Mediterranean. 14 Analysis While interstate conflicts now have to potential to be more destructive than ever before, organizations like the SCO have the potential to facilitate the resolution of disputes before they become violent. Leaders should think carefully about how they will approach situations that involve disputes between member states, as it is imperative that the SCO develops solutions that all member states find equitable. Failure to do so may result in conflict between member states that would weaken the cohesion of the organization in its attempts to address the external threats of western influence in Asia. While it is unlikely that all interstate conflict can be avoided outright, it is within the interests of the SCO to insure that what conflict flares up is mitigated and localized as much as possible in order to reduce any destructive consequences it may have on member states. Conclusion The SCO cannot operate effectively if its constituent states are fighting amongst themselves. The threat of western interference in the regions is a serious threat to most member states, and to address it properly, SCO must put forward a unified front. This means that it is of the utmost importance that disputes between member states be resolved and conflicts with western aligned countries be treated delicately. Questions to Consider How does interstate conflict directly affect the countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization? How can this body work to promote peace and stability? What factors might increase the risk of interstate conflict in the future? In what ways does this committee seek to challenge the power of Western nations? 13 "China's One Belt, One Road: Will it reshape global trade?" McKinsey & Company. Accessed December 11, Ebrahim, Zofeen T. "What's Happening at Pakistan's Gwadar Port?" The Diplomat. June 17, Accessed December 11,

6 II. Managing Democratic Movements History Many deposed autocrats throughout history have failed to realize a simple fact: to stay in power, the basic needs of your people must be met. The 1791 French revolution was sparked by bread riots caused by two consecutive years of crop failures, 15 and the Soviet Union, which had stagnated throughout the 1970 s only collapsed after it was thrown into crisis when wheat production collapsed in the 80 s. 16 A 2011 study examined the timing of popular uprisings and protests along with changes in the FAO Food Price Index. They found that periods of unrest correlated strongly with sudden and sharp increases in the price of food, and the study focused primarily on two such spikes in price in 2008 and The 2011 Arab Spring is a modern instance of a wave of unrest sparked by rising food prices. The revolutionary wave that swept across the arab world from Western Sahara to Western Iran started in rural areas in Tunisia and surged after a man running a vegetable stand self-immolated to protest corruption. 18 The protests themselves were not only about food prices which was only one of many issues caused by the autocratic regimes. A common motto for many of the movements was the people want to bring down the regime, 19 showing that while these movements may have been initiated by desperation resulting from volatile food prices, their goal was not simply to meet their basic needs, but also included overthrowing existing power structures to instance a government that would respond to the needs of its people. It is important to note that while many of the problems that these popular movements sought to address like corruption, media suppression, and violent suppression of dissent were qualities of the regimes (and qualities shared by many regimes in SCO), these political conditions had existed in these countries for many years or even decades before this period of unrest replaced many of these regimes. It was fires in Russia, heavy rains in Canada, drought in Argentina, and floods in Australia that destroyed large food stocks and destabilize global food 15 Bramen, Lisa. "When Food Changed History: The French Revolution." Smithsonian.com. July 14, Accessed January 18, Popham, Peter. "The price of food is at the heart of this wave of revolutions." The Independent. February 26, Accessed January 18, Lagi, Marco, Karla Z. Bertrand, and Yaneer Bar-Yam. "The Food Crises and Political Instability in North Africa and the Middle East." SSRN Electronic Journal, doi: /ssrn Desk, News. "Did Food Prices Spur the Arab Spring?" PBS. September 07, Accessed January 19, Abulof, Uriel. "What Is the Arab Third Estate?" The Huffington Post. March 10, Accessed January 19,

7 prices. 20 These events were far beyond the control of the regime they ultimately brought down, but it was how each regime responded to these democratic movements that determined whether they remained or fell. Current Situation For many members of the SCO, It is important to manage democratic movements to ensure that the governments of the nations that comprise SCO remain stable and can maintain full control over their people and resources. The democratic nations in SCO can also be destabilized from tensions in the region. Many of the historic tensions that have led to regime instability persist to this day. It is important to understand these tensions between different groups, however, there are other issues that must also be examined, some of whom today play great roles in the world setting. Environmental and resource stability, for instance, have proved to be key points concerning regime stability. It is anticipated that water problems today will be further exacerbated and will result in more water shortages, poor water quality, or floods. This could lead to the instability of nations, state failure, and increase regional tensions. Currently, water tensions provide an issue for many nations in the SCO. Iran and Afghanistan are struggling to settle issues in the Helmand River Basin, an area where control over the river basin is crucial for an otherwise dry region. Issues with control over the water have become political with each side accusing the other of cheating them out of water and taking drastic action as a result. For example, Afghanistan believes that Iran has been supporting insurgents in Afghanistan to stop infrastructure projects in the region. Iran says that they will be reducing water flow into certain regions of Afghanistan. 21 For these two nations, it is a matter of interstate tension, however, the repercussions that a water crisis could have for the country must be understood. This is simply an example of how these interstate tensions could exacerbate problems in an already water starved region. For India, it currently is fighting a number of water battles domestically and internationally. With Pakistan, the issue is with water sources that flow into both India and Pakistan. The question then becomes how much water each nation should get and how they intend on regulating it. 22 Internally, there are water disputes happening between states in India all the time. For example, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, two states in India, are still struggling to 20 Popham, Peter. "The price of food is at the heart of this wave of revolutions." The Independent. February 26, Accessed January 19, Aman, Fatemeh. "Water Dispute Escalating between Iran and Afghanistan." Atlantic Council South Asia Center, August Rowlatt, Justin. "Why India's water dispute with Pakistan matters." BBC News. September 28, Accessed December 11,

8 settle disputes with the Cauveri River. 23 Understanding how local level governments inside a country interact with each other could be key to understanding the dynamic of the country as well. Apart from security issues, this water crisis becomes a health issue as well. According to a 2006 UN Human Development Report, a child dies from a water related illness every 15 seconds. The root causes of this are unsanitary drinking water and poor sanitation. Furthermore, half of those in developing nations are suffering from health problems related to water and sanitation deficit. 24 It is crucial that states find a way by which they can effectively deal with issues that could compromise both internal and external stability. Another potentially complicated issue relating to environmental security is dealing with oil. Many nations here are reliant on oil as a resource, so the tensions and possible issues that could be caused within a state relating to oil must be examined. Oil is a necessary resource in today s society. For that reason, understanding the mechanics of the global oil trade is important in understanding global security interests. The US, in the 1970s, maintained control over prices by placing a tariff on oil imports. However, in the early 1970s, concern was raised on OPECs ability to restrict supplies and dramatically impact the global oil prices. Such price instability would in term have macroeconomic effects. OPEC is in an interesting position to exercise substantial market control. OPEC controls ¾ of the world s oil reserves, which is particularly important in a world where oil is a necessary resource. Understanding the economic ramifications of oil volatility, it is important for nations to understand how to deal with this environment, particularly as oil is becoming an increasingly political issue. 25 Analysis While the management of democratic movements is key to many nations, it is important to understand that each individual nation deals with democracy in different ways. For example, India is the world s largest democracy so understanding of their party system and the politics of their democratic institutions is key to understanding India. However, Bhutan, another nation in the SCO, has a monarchy. Democracy in such a nation would not be fitting with the principles with the people. The monarchy is revered in Bhutan and the mention of the establishment of a democracy is met with opposition. Additionally, understanding how different factions and relations, which could threaten the regime stability of a country is necessary in understanding how to manage democratic 23 "Cauvery water war: When did the dispute start and where are we now?" Firstpost. September 12, Accessed December 11, Global Water Security. Report. Intelligence Community, Defense Intelligence Agency. 25 Toman, Michael A. "International Oil Security: Problems and Policies." Brookings. July 28, Accessed December 11,

9 institutions. These democratic institutions must ensure the success the success and longevity of their power so they must manage the ethnic and racial tensions that could undermine their ruling authority. Conclusion It is difficult for leaders to enact the change that they would like if their own nation is not strong. Understanding how democracy fits into every nation is key for understanding ways to deal with issues. Establishing and working with democracies is a difficult process; proving the need for a thorough understanding of the resulting complexities and difficulties. Furthermore, destabilizing events beyond the control of the governments in SCO like natural disasters and resources shortages are sure to increase in both severity and frequency as a result of global climate change. Questions to Consider How do your leader s personal interests align with or oppose the interests of their countries government and people? How does it compare to the interests of the SCO and its constituent states? How will you approach situations where your motivations conflict with those of the committee? How should the SCO address democratic and separatist movements in member states and neighboring countries? Should the SCO take an aggressive or diplomatic stance towards U.S. influence in Asia? How can internal disputes and disagreements between member states be resolved in order to maintain cohesion against western influence? Should the SCO centralize power to streamline cooperation? Can this be achieved without infringing on the sovereignty of its constituent states? What would such a power structure look like?