Newfoundland and Labrador Election 2015

Transcription

1 Newfoundland and Labrador Election 2015 St. John's West David Coletto Abacus Data November 17, 2015

2 Methodology Survey Methodology 500 eligible voters in the provincial electoral district of St. John's West were surveyed using live telephone interviewers and RDD sample (both landlines and cell phones) The margin of error for the survey is + 4.0%, 19 times out of 20. Field dates November 8 to 12, 2015 Statistical Weighting Data was weighted by age, gender, and education. 2

3 Vote Intention in St. John's West If a provincial election was held today, which political party would you vote for in your local electoral district? Would you vote for... Undecided/Not voting 26% PC - Dan Crummell 14% NDP - Earle McCurdy 18% Liberal - Siobhan Coady 42% 3

4 Committed Vote in St. John's West If a provincial election was held today, which political party would you vote for in your local electoral district? Would you vote for... NDP - Earle McCurdy 24% PC - Dan Crummell 19% Liberal - Siobhan Coady 57% Committed Voters Only St. John's West, n = 364 4

5 Direction of the Province Generally speaking, do you think things in Newfoundland and Labrador are headed in the right direction or are they off on the wrong track? 52% Newfoundland and Labrador 25% 23% 56% St. John's West 28% 16% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Headed in the right direction Off on the wrong track Unsure

6 Accessible Voters Regardless of how you actually vote, would you consider or not consider voting for the following PROVINCIAL political parties? Province Wide (November 2) 73% 57% 53% 32% 37% 19% 11% 9% 10% Progressive Conservative Party Liberal Party NDP 68% St. John's West 35% 52% 41% 48% 20% 12% 12% 11% Progressive Conservative Party Liberal Party NDP 6

7 Top Issues What do you think is the most important issue facing Newfoundland and Labrador? The economy or jobs 29% Health care 21% Other issues (Less than 2%) 18% Don't know 11% Oil prices 4% Muskrat Falls/Churchill Falls/Electricity Prices 4% Budget deficit/government debt 3% Education 3% Taxes 2% Mining/natural resources/oil and gas 2% The fisheries 2% 7

8 Leadership Favourability How do you feel about the following individuals? Do you have a very positive, mostly positive, neutral, mostly negative, or very negative impression of them? Province Wide (November 2) 50% 32% 34% 33% 25% 26% 40% 22% 8% 10% 8% 12% PC Leader Paul Davis Liberal Leader Dwight Ball NDP Leader Earle McCurdy 37% 42% 34% 35% 36% 30% 23% St. John's West 23% 7% 13% 10% 11% PC Leader Paul Davis Liberal Leader Dwight Ball NDP Leader Earle McCurdy 8

9 Time for Change Which of these views comes closest to yours? Newfoundland and Labrador 56% 23% 6% 9% 6% St. John's West 51% 32% 5% 8% 4% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% It s definitely time for a change in government in Newfoundland and Labrador It would be good to have a change, but not really all that important to me It would be good to continue with the same party in power, but it's not all that important to me It s definitely best to keep the PCs in office Unsure/DK

10 Who will win the next PROVINCIAL election? Which party do you think will win the provincial election in Newfoundland and Labrador? Is it the... NDP 2% Unsure 9% PC Party 8% Liberal Party 81% 10

11 Who will win in St. John's West? Which party do you think will win the election in St. John's West? Unsure 19% PC Party 12% NDP 10% Liberal Party 59% 11

12 Federal Vote Choice in St. John s West What party did you vote for in the recent FEDERAL election held on October 19? Did you vote... Did not vote 16% PC Party 6% Other 1% NDP 26% Liberal Party 51% 12

13 CONTACT INFO David Coletto CEO