Reinvigorating SAARC to rejuvenate SAFTA. Written by Civil Services Times Magazine Wednesday, 30 July :10
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1 It is often said that economic imperatives determine the polity and political decisions. But, political condition may also influence the economic conditions. But ultimately, even that political condition is also decided by the economy. In other words, it seems to be a classic chicken-egg syndrome, but in most cases, the economic turmoil has a direct bearing on the political system. An incapable polity may or may not negatively impact the economy in every scenario, but a bad economy has unilaterally caused political upheaval throughout human history. For example, the economic conditions of Germany and Italy after the First World War, coupled with the Great Depression of 1929, completely uprooted the popularity of the democratic institutions and led to the emergence of Nazism and Fascism based on economic assurances and optimism. The support to these kinds of militant nationalist ideologies stemmed mainly from the fact that it is the military which would go for aggressive policy, win colonies and bring booty and bounty for the nation. Through this method, the economic conditions may be ameliorated. Recently, the ongoing Ukraine crisis has polarized most of the world into two opposing camps reminiscent of the Cold War. But strong German-Russian economic ties are constraining both nations and their partners to negotiate for a middle path and avoid an uncompromising extremist stance against each other. Closer to home, the deteriorating economic conditions have led to the decline of democratic institutions in Thailand and the world witnessed a coup in the nation. The defeat of UPA II by NDA, especially by BJP, can also be attributed to the failures of UPA II s economic policies in tackling unemployment, inflation, fiscal deficit etc. Both the primary and secondary sector failed to perform at a satisfactory level and the growth in real terms was jeopardised. The newly elected prime minister of India Narendra Modi, who made Gujarat vibrant only through liberal economic policies, has already realized that this victory has been given to neither NDA nor RSS or any other sectarian factors. It is solely a mandate to transform the economic situation of the world s most populated nation by 2028, with 1.45 billion expected inhabitants as per the latest United Nations report. 1 / 5
2 Considering the growing popularity of regional trade agreements (RTA) like ASEAN, NAFTA and MERCOSUR, especially among the neighbouring countries, let us evaluate the performance of a few landmark agreements. In an RTA two or more countries decide to remove all tariffs on trade amongst themselves to form a free-trade area (FTA). If they also maintain a common tariff vis-a-vis the rest of the world, this RTA becomes a customs union (CU) which, with complete integration, becomes an economic union. Examples of RTAs are SAPTA and NAFTA. The only major economic union in place is, of course, the European Union (EU). However, whatever the form of the RTA, it is clear that it is supposed to benefit the members by discriminating against non-members. NAFTA has more than tripled trade among USA, Canada and Mexico within 20 years, from $297 billion in 1993 to $1.15 trillion in Intra-NAFTA trade constitutes 48 per cent of overall trade by the group. As expected, Canada and Mexico were the top two purchasing nations of US exports in 2013 as well as the 2nd and 3rd largest suppliers of US imports. In 2013, the US goods trade deficit of $86 billion is only partially covered by a services trade surplus of $43.7 billion. Therefore, not only are all nations benefiting from greater market access, economies of scale and productivity, but the so-called weaker nations are also deriving greater benefits relative to their stronger counterparts. Strong political will overruled sectarian concerns of manufacturing job losses in US, environmental and labour exploitation in Mexico, and corporate takeover of Canadian firms by a sudden US investment avalanche. ASEAN conducted $602 billion or nearly 25 per cent of its cumulative trade in goods with fellow 2 / 5
3 member nations in This figure has almost quadrupled from 2000 s $167 billion. Steadfast political support and regional cooperation over the past decade has ensured elimination of customs duties for nearly 50 per cent of all commodities involved in intra-asean trade; gradual expansion of the group s membership; and signing of FTAs with other nations such as China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand. The European Union (EU) follows the single market principle that grants the free movement of goods, services, capital and people across national borders. To facilitate such movement, EU institutions are empowered to enact laws that take precedence over national laws and are binding on national authorities. Between 1992 and 2011, cross-border trade between EU member nations has risen from Euro 800 billion to Euro 2.8 trillion, while international trade has leaped from Euro 500 billion to Euro1.5 trillion. The benefits of EU can be seen from tackling of the PIGS-Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain crisis. The strong economies within EU, especially Germany, planned a road map and helped those nations financially to get rid of their crisis situation. Mercosur s intra-group trade reached $67 billion in Despite repeated rounds of political instability and unrest as well as the major 2001 Argentinian economic meltdown, the group has managed to register respectable annual rates of growth (10-year average) of 14.9 per cent and 14.5 per cent for all exports and imports respectively by Still, stronger political will and coordination is needed to change the protectionist nature of the customs union against imports from non-members and hostility to trade liberalization. Leftist ideological forces within Mercosur still view the protectionist customs union as a political body that should oppose free markets as a threat to South American unity. Trade within Mercosur currently represents only 16 per cent of the group s total trade. 3 / 5
4 SAFTA s 1990s, share cent 48 intra-regional protectionist among country bottlenecks. trade (1.1 (2.4 Arabia distant Therefore, regional failed politics promoting producers Asia s Trade Common countries proposal Summit Sensitive Compensation Under customs bring Bangladesh, 8 equal Obstacles jeopardised the not about establish exports from per increase billion. 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(0.6 its end national of compared been risen further Area of (9.7 give Agreement and has The objectives conditions Crony Loss before Rules relations, customs Maldives, sub-regional India from multiple COE velocity Cooperation exports dismal SAARC. was with access, Every Programme been and denial Least 29 (SAFTA) List) Union. by agenda 0-5 for intrasaarc the cent), exacerbated positive and The political of capitalism envisaged external that Summits, for and SAPTA cent). of November Nepal a Least so Origin, gradually duties trade to no by to region country much Developing Pakistan, to Nepal, sensitive 35 Besides signed entered Mercosur s innovation discourages far, counter The Singapore meaningful 20 eliminate transit cent and rather leading per In direction of constraints Nepal, were Developed agreements as per partners scheduled greater Technical Agreement , SAFTA, but Pakistan, cent primarily external has has exports for evidenced 2014 from all the into that, cent pass-through has than polity s list supposed especially six registered were only 6 Sri subsequently traded their to made Countries failed poverty, understated and of existing (2.9 January 16 appears force equal 2.7 extent refused coordinated a regional by be has Lanka act India s held 17 are only Member decision partners Assistance to members. 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Asian members had million establishing trade regional also domestic improve Sri a new Vision threats several eight not been environment range accounting to for challenges Lanka borders-pakistan with eroded reality. given growth SAPTA. to Indian rather This times charge pursuing, of nature: open new of integration. and challenges, emergent industries. has bilateral a products attention. necessitates much-needed pan-saarc has than new Many investments ports, would Trade India up for But just which each climate relevance Indian become only which until challenges complimentary geo-political a Free changes has airports Asian help volumes has other modest threatening require and US planned change skies agricultural Trade resulted SAARC s preparedness maximize Airline Bangladesh $ stand a Corridor. late 5 of air 1.18 key percent affecting amount strong SAFTA. and crossed connectivity 1980 s, locations Agreement driver at logistic more and million its nature to about GDP double benefits activities asymmetric regional growth trans harness or of permitting agriculture India $5 frequent have import less trade to facilities from growth cannot billion boundary face its required (FTA) product has and for from import billion region s the are July bilateral taking air 96 private started is be trade during under 2006 now since mix. from done nations member Trading SAFTA, under South the India apply. despite excess access There programme items each projects. 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Asian US$ liberalization respective US$100 infrastructure free to are of It 20 the for Trade SAFTA. classified Preferential countries access demand list due In those total been bar million of granted Asian 2012, cent will to million trade to The felt, for for not all Therefore, collectively medium that Although terrorists economic per development connecting Nepal, of between the clear sides its December conditional agricultural list, products, cross-border sensitive SME non-discriminatory the creates India the contains had 300 Sri expected enterprises the hurdle sector from Prime animals, could partnerships agreed Lanka, the items offer try SAARC products. list massive two and 1,209 inward under terrorism export plays Minister for countries, tap lines, Maldives Pakistan mutual fruits, full granting lowered (SME) a the items number India significant SAFTA looking roadmap market 1,946 implementation and Modi Narendra global tea, but prosperity, that had sector and including better plight duties. 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