Perspective on India - Germany Trade Relations and the way forward

Transcription

1 Perspective on India - Germany Trade Relations and the way forward Ajay Durrani covestro.com

2 Forward-looking statements This presentation may contain forward-looking statements based on current assumptions and forecasts made by Covestro AG. Various known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors could lead to material differences between the actual future results, financial situation, development or performance of the company and the estimates given here. These factors include those discussed in Covestro s public reports, which are available on the Covestro website at The company assumes no liability whatsoever to update these forward-looking statements or to adjust them to future events or developments. 2 March 2017 Innovation Excellence Innovation Culture Covestro AG 2018

3 Potential and Diversity of the world s largest Democracy approx. 3,000 km 3 28 member states Approx. 4.3 Mio. km2 Approx. 0.5 Bn. inhabitants 24 official languages Voter turnout European Elections 2014: % Voter turnout German Elections 2017: 75,6 % approx. 3,200 km 29 Federal states Approx. 3.3 Mio. km2 Approx. 1.3 Bn. Inhabitants 23 official languages Voter turnout 2014: % (highest ever

4 3 years of Modi Government An economic balance Economic Indicator GDP growth (annual) 7.5% 6.7% Inflation rate (annual) 5.8% 3.6% FDI in-flows amount in billion US$ 36 (FY ) 60 (FY ) Government budget deficit in % of GDP -4.5% -3.5% (2017)* Revenue budget in billion US$ (14/15) (plan 17/18) Current account in billion US$ (Oct-Dec) (Oct-Dec) Key interest rate 8.00% 6.00% Exchange rate INR/US$ (April) (December) 4 * Annual value for fiscal year is a forecast Source: Trading Economics, GTAI, RBI, Department of Industrial Policy & Promotion, Govt. of India, Money Control, IMF, May 2018

5 German investment into India compared FDI inflows (total in billion US$) Year (April March) (April March) (April March) April Dec (Cumulative) Country Germany Total FDI inflows from all countries* % share of Germany Germany (year-on-year change, in %) Total FDI inflows from all countries (year-on-year change, in %) *(Includes inflows under NRI Schemes of RBI), Note: Year-on-year changes refer to the amount in US-Dollar Source: Department of Promotion, Govt. of India, May 2018

6 India is the third largest economy and ahead of Germany 2,50,00,000 2,00,00,000 GDP (Purchasing power parity) in billion USD ,33,00,783 1,93,90,604 1,50,00,000 1,00,00,000 94,48,659 50,00,000 55,62,822 41,93,923 0 China USA India Japan Germany 6 Source: World Bank, August 2018

7 Economic growth: India vs. Euro Area GDP growth (annual, %) India vs. Euro Area India Euro Area 7 *Estimation by World Bank Source: World Bank, August 2018

8 Reforms and economic growth Economic growth after the introduction of reforms (China 1978 & India 1991) GDP in US$ (billions) Jahr 1 (78/91) Jahr 6 (83/96) Jahr 11 (88/01) Jahr 16 (93/06) Jahr 21 (98/11) Jahr 26 (03/16) Jahr 31 (2008) Jahr 36 (2013) Indien China 8 Source: World Bank, December 2017 *GDP of India is adjusted according to inflation of US$

9 Per capita income 50, ,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 Per capita income in 2017 (in USD) 15,000 10,000 5, India 0 9 Source: Knoema, August 2018 Germany Brazil Russia China South Mexico Indonesia Turkey Africa BIP je Einwohner (US$) 2015

10 Inflation in India Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, August

11 Strong currency reserve Total reserves as on August,3 rd 2018 (includes gold, current US$): Billion US$ In bn US$ External debt stocks, total (DOD, current US$) Total reserves (includes gold, current US$) Source: World Bank, Indian Ministry of Finance, August

12 How the heavyweights will shift until 2060 SHARE OF REAL WORLD GDP (PPPS IN %) China India Euro Area* United States Japan other countries Source: OECD *GDP Share of Germany will shrink from 3.5% in 2016 to 2% in 2060

13 Bilateral Trade 13

14 German Imports from India 2017 Volume of German imports from India 9,000 8,000 7,000 8,456 7,502 7,539 7,652 6,994 6,892 7,039 6,193 Mio. EUR 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 3,407 3,000 2,616 2,427 2,501 2,522 4,175 4,721 5,253 5,105 5,300 2,000 1,000 0 Source: IGCC 14 *2018- till July

15 German Imports from India 2017 Synthetic 5% Consumer goods 4% Others 1% Pharmaceutical Automotive 3% 6% Textiles 24% Machines 9% Agricultural Products 10% Chemistry 14% Metal 7% Leather and shoes 10% Electrical engineering 6% 15 Source: Statistisches Bundesamt

16 German Exports to India 2017 Volume of German exports from India from 2000 to ,000 10,871 10,383 10,692 10,000 8,191 7,997 9,253 9,189 8,924 9,752 9,783 Mio. EUR 8,000 6,000 4,174 6,364 7,354 6,846 4,000 2,000 2,085 2,307 2,421 2,441 3, Source: IGCC *2018- till July

17 German Exports to India 2017 Automotive 6% Consumer goods 3% Synthetic 7% Paper, cardboards and printed material Aircrafts 4% 2% Others 2% Electrical engineering 14% Optic and photographic devices 8% Machines 32% Metal 7% Chemistry 13% 17 Quelle: Statistisches Bundesamt

18 India: main trading partners Total Trade in US$ China USA UAE Saudi Arabia Switzerland Germany Indonesia Singapore Hong Kong Source: Indian Department of Commerce, December

19 Relatively low German investment in India Direct investments from 2000 to December 2016 France 2% Cyprus 3% Germany 3% UAE 1% Others 14% Mauritius 34% Netherlands 6% U.S.A 6% Japan 7% U.K. 8% Singapore 16% 19

20 More than 1000 German companies in India Banglore 13% Chennai 8% Kolkata 5% Hyderabad 2% Mumbai/Pune 41% New Delhi/ Gurgaon 14% Others 17% Source: IGCC, May

21 German Companies in India Technical JVs 20% 100% Subsidary companies 46% Joint ventures 13% License agreements 10% Liason Office 5% RepresentationsBranches 4% 2% Source: IGCC, May

22 Major highlights of German engagements in India Around 1800 German companies operate in India with their own production/joint Venture or collaboration agreement The biggest companies are Siemens and Bosch but also almost all DAX-companies are represented in India Despite a slight decline of profitability, the German enterprises in India were highly profitable in recent years and could in many cases finance their expansion from own resources or from the liquid capital market or bank loans 604 German companies in India employed a rising amount of 301,000 permanent employees in 2016 (in 2012: 254,000 employees) and 300,000 employees in form of exclusive agents, franchise partners, and exclusive suppliers and contract manufacturer 22

23 Way Forward for Indo-German Trade Relations For Indian Organisations Germany is the world s third largest chemical market, being surpassed only by China and USA in terms of revenues. The attractiveness of Germany as a production location for the chemical industry is based on specific strengths of innovation and research environment, productivity and resource efficiency. Germany s chemical complexes are served by excellent logistics networks from road and rail to waterway and pipeline. Well connected across EU region. Chemical clusters and chemical parks have helped Germany to strengthen its position in the chemical market. Numerous trade fairs in the chemical sector in Germany providing excellent business opportunities for Indian exporters. Visitors also have the chance to learn more about the latest state-of-the-art innovations and developments in the sector. 23

24 Way Forward for Indo-German Trade Relations For German Organizations - Chemical Industry is an important contributor to the Indian economy sustaining a variety of downstream industries such as textiles and pharmaceuticals. Indian textiles, chemicals and leather products continue to be the most sought-after products in Germany, emerging as the top three exports to Germany in India s exports of chemicals is largely dependent on the performance of the organic chemicals Opportunities for Large scale EU giants Germany is one of the top destinations for India s organic chemical exports and continue to show a positive trend. In order to be more competitive at a global level, India will have to address the key issues pertaining to inadequate infrastructure and lack of availability of low cost feedstock for production. Immense opportunities for growth exists in the fields of specialty chemicals, polymers and agrochemicals industries as Make in India initiative further facilitates growth and investment. Industry body like IGCC alongwith Department can form a desk which will aid organisation from both the side to for speedy clearances 24

25 Thank you Ajay Durrani Managing Director, Covestro India Private Limited covestro.com