NC House of Representatives

Transcription

1 NC House of Representatives With Democrats in 170 legislative seats, Republicans in 169, and even Libertarians filing in 35 legislative districts, 2018 is shaping up to be one of the most pivotal legislative elections in North Carolina history. And with no race on the ballot above Supreme Court, these elections will get more attention than ever before. This report combines an analysis of district voting data, national and state polling plus qualitative factors like local issues and relative candidate strength. In total, we think that 36 House races and 13 Senate races are shaping up to have competitive campaigns run by both of the major parties in districts that could conceivably go to either. We have also identified a handful of other races worth keeping an eye on for other reasons. A few caveats before we get to the districts: RFNC Election 2018 Report Expect the unexpected: If we ve learned anything from the last two years it s that changing political dynamics, both local and national, combined with some unpredictable court rulings mean any time you feel in control, something will upend all expectations. Republicans have shown they will do anything to rig the system to their favor making things unpredictable. Redrawn maps: while we have a high level of confidence in the data we re using, the recent nature of the map redraw (with challenges to some district lines still under consideration) makes analysis with 100 percent accuracy incredibly difficult. The blue moon: The lack of a statewide race above the NC Supreme Court seat means that turnout will be even more difficult to predict than in any election past. We are largely looking to last year s Gubernatorial race along with some key demographics as predictors, but those are far from perfect for this year s blue moon election. During the last blue moon election in 2006 just 37% of voters showed up, the lowest since 1974 and 20% less than the lowest presidential election year. Libertarians and unaffiliateds: As we noted Libertarians have filed a record number of candidates; in addition, the threshold for unaffiliated candidates to qualify for the ballot has been lowered. Folks outside the two major parties are a huge segment of the electorate and those candidates could play a decisive role in this year s elections. Unaffiliated candidates have until May 8 to file and until June 11 to collect signatures from 4% of registered voters in their district. These are analyses not endorsements: we ve looked for races that could be competitive in the general and made some educated guesses in a few primaries, but that shouldn t be taken as an indication of support of any one candidate over another. With those caveats out of the way, the second part of our report will take a look at 13 NC Senate districts that will have the most competitive general elections, and three other races worth keeping an eye on.

2 District Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate County Makeup 1 Ron Wesson Ed Goodwin Bertie: 25% Camden: 15% Chowan: 21% Perquimans: 19% Tyrrell: 4% Washington: 17% 2 Darryl Moss Larry Yarborough Granville: 48% Person: 52% Gates: 15% Hertford: 28% 5 Howard Hunter Phillip Smith Pasquotank: 58% 6 Tess Judge Bobby Hanig Currituck: 32% Dare: 47% Hyde: 6% Pamlico:15% 7 Bobbie Richardson Lisa Stone Barnes Franklin: 79% Nash: 21% 12 George Graham Chris Humphrey Lenoir: 78% Pitt: 22% 19 Marcia Morgan Ted Davis New Hanover: 100% 20 Leslie Cohen Holly Grange New Hanover: 100% 21 Raymond Smith Robert Freeman Sampson: 19% Wayne 81% 35 Terence Everitt Chris Malone Wake: 100% 36 Julie von Haefen Nelson Dollar Wake: 100% 37 Sydney Batch John Adcock Wake: 100% 40 Joe John Marilyn Avila Wake: 100% 44 Billy Richardson Linda Devore Cumberland: 100% 46 Barbara Yates-Lockamy Brenden Jones Columbus: 42% Robeson: 58% 47 Charles Graham Jarrod Lowery Robeson: 100% 48 Garland Pierce Russell Walker Hoke: 56% Scotland: 44% 51 Lisa Mathis John Sauls Harnett: 27% Lee: 73% 59 Steven Buccini Jon Hardister Guilford: 100% 62 Martha Shafer John Faircloth Guilford: 100% 63 Erica McAdoo Steve Ross Alamance: 100% 64 Cathy Von Hassel-Davies Dennis Riddell Alamance: 100% 74 Terri LeGrand Debra Conrad Forsyth: 100% 75 Dan Besse Donny Lambeth Forsyth: 100% 82 Aimy Steele Linda Johnson Cabarrus: 100% 83 Gail Young Larry Pittman Cabarrus: 82% Rowan: 18% 93 Ray Russell Jonathan Jordan Ashe: 34% Watauga: 66% 98 Christy Clark John Bradford Mecklenburg: 100% 103 Rachel Hunt Bill Brawley Mecklenburg: 100% 104 Brandon Lofton Andy Dulin Mecklenburg: 100% 105 Wesley Harris Scott Stone Mecklenburg: 100% 115 John Ager Amy Evans Buncombe: 100% 116 Brian Turner Marilyn Brown Buncombe: 100% 118 Rhonda Schandevel Michele Presnell Haywood: 57% Madison: 29% Yancey: 14% 119 Joe Sam Queen Mike Clampitt Haywood: 40% Jackson: 42% Swain: 17% Race to Watch 3 Barbara Lee Michael Speciale Craven: 100% 67 Karen Webster Wayne Sasser Stanly: 60% Cabarrus: 40% Note: Incumbents are in bold

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4 Competitive Districts House District 1: Democrat Ron Wesson faces former state ferry director and Chowan County Commissioner Ed Goodwin. This open district is one of the three most impacted by the ruling against the unconstitutional racial gerrymanders of prior maps. HD1 incumbent Bob Steinburg chose to run for Senate rather than seek election in the new, Democratic leaning version of the district. Wesson has been a Bertie County commissioner, the most populous county in this district, since House District 2: Incumbent Republican Larry Yarborough will face Democrat Darryl Moss. Moss has served as Mayor of Creedmoor since 1999 and is a strong challenger, having seen the population of his town more than double while Mayor. Yarborough has been a loyal lieutenant to Speaker Moore since his election in 2014 when Democrat Winkie Wilkins retired.

5 House District 5: Incumbent Democrat Howard Hunter has seen his district become more competitive in newly drawn maps. Hunter s district as previously drawn was ruled an unconstitutional racial gerrymander and was packed with African American voters. Due to the redraw, HD5 now has just 60% of the voters that lived in the HD5 that Hunter ran for in Phillip Smith House District 6: After defeating clearly deeply unpopular incumbent Republican Beverly Boswell, Republican Bobby Hanig will face Democrat Tess Judge. Judge is a local business owner and wife of Warren Judge who passed away just days before Boswell won the district in 2016 in what was a surprisingly close victory. Hanig is a Currituck County Commissioner.

6 House District 7: Incumbent Democrat Bobbie Richardson is running in this significantly redrawn district that retains less than a third of the voters from Richardson s district under the previous map. Republican Lisa Stone Barnes, a Nash County Commissioner, will face Richardson in November. House District 12: Incumbent Democrat George Graham faces Republican Chris Humphrey in this newly unpacked district that was ruled an unconstitutional racial gerrymander. Less than half voters in the new HD12 have previously seen incumbent George Graham on their ballot in prior elections.

7 House District 19: Incumbent Republican Ted Davis, Jr. is another deeply unpopular incumbent whose failure to convince his Senate colleagues to take meaningful action on the GenX crisis combined with greater Democratic enthusiasm due to national factors puts this New Hanover district in play. Davis faces Democrat Marcia Morgan a retired U.S. Army Colonel, educator, and former Head Start teacher. House District 20: Incumbent Republican Holly Grange is seen as a rising star in the Republican House Caucus and has been featured heavily in Republican media relations and fundraising efforts. Grange serves as Deputy Conference Leader despite being in only her first full term as a legislator after being appointed to replace Rep. Rick Catlin in Democrat Leslie Cohen will face Grange in November.

8 House District 21: Democrat Larry Bell s retirement leaves this seat open. Democrat Raymond Smith, Vice-Chair of the Wayne County Board of Education, is a strong candidate to face Republican Robert Freeman in November. Freeman sits on the Wayne County Planning Board. Robert Freeman House District 35: Incumbent Republican Chris Malone faced a tough primary but will go on to face a rematch with lawyer and Wake Forest Chamber of Commerce board member Terence Everitt, a Democrat. This was one of the state s most expensive matchups in 2016 and is shaping up to be that way again. HD35 in suburban Wake County has a higher-than-average college educated population, which could lead to higher-than-normal Democratic performance if national and current state trends hold.

9 House District 36: Incumbent Republican Nelson Dollar is the most senior House Republican member of leadership in a competitive district. Dollar serves as both unofficial gatekeeper and key budget writer for House Republicans. Dollar has authored every budget since Republicans took control of the legislature in He will face Wake County PTA Council President Julie von Haefen, a Democrat, who has been outspoken in organizing against the unfunded class size mandate. House District 37: This seat is open due to the retirement of one-term incumbent Linda Hunt-Williams. Democrat Sydney Batch and Republican John Adcock are both attorneys. Adcock must contend with some of the highest Democratic enthusiasm in the state AND some of the highest disapprovals of the legislature, without any of the advantages of incumbency. Batch is a founder and senior partner of the law firm Batch, Poore, & Williams, PC and has served on the board of the Wake County Women s Center.

10 House District 40: Incumbent Democrat Joe John faces a rematch from Republican Marilyn Avila who he defeated in one of the state s closest races in John is a former judge who has been a key voice in fighting against Republican efforts to politicize the courts, one of N.C. s biggest emerging issues. Avila is a former employee of the Art Pope-funded John Locke Foundation and long-time chair of the Appropriations subcommittee for Health and Human Services. This suburban northwestern Wake district is close to Research Triangle Park and has a high percentage of college educated voters. House District 44: Incumbent Democrat Billy Richardson seeks re-election in a Fayetteville-area district that is perennially one of the most competitive districts in the General Assembly. Republican Linda Devore, a former Cumberland County Party Chair, faces Richardson in November.

11 House District 46: Incumbent Republican Brenden Jones is a local used car salesman who faces Columbus County-native Democrat Barbara Yates-Lockamy, chair of the Columbus County School Board and longtime educator. This district also has a significant African American population that could play a pivotal role if trends seen in other recent elections hold. House District 47: Incumbent Democrat Charles Graham seeks reelection in a district that saw some of the closest margins in the Presidential and Gubernatorial races in The district is located entirely in Robeson County. He faces Republican Jarrod Lowery.

12 House District 48: Incumbent Democrat Garland Pierce seeks reelection in a Democratic leaning district. Pierce s previous district was ruled an unconstitutional racial gerrymander and was singled out by a Federal Court ruling as bizarre and sprawling. The district is now made up of Hoke and Scotland Counties. He faces Republican Russell Walker who emerged from a primary. House District 51: Incumbent Republican John Sauls returned to the House in 2016 after a previous stint from 2003 to 2007 when he joined the coalition of rebel Republicans who voted for Democrat Jim Black for the co-speakership. He faces Democrat Lisa Mathis, a small business owner from Sanford. This Sandhills district, made up of Lee County and parts of Harnett County, has alternated in electing a Democrat or a Republican for the last few cycles.

13 House District 59: Incumbent Republican Jon Hardister serves as Majority Whip. Hardister has grandstanded on the issue of independent redistricting but caved when it counted after initially opposing a local redistricting scheme in Guilford County. The Republican will face Democrat Steven Buccini. Buccini is a native of Guilford County who works as a software engineer. House District 62: Incumbent Republican John Faircloth faces a challenge from Democrat Martha Shafer. Faircloth has been in the legislature for nearly a decade and serves as a Chair of the Appropriations Committee. He played a key role in writing the Republican budgets, but has otherwise had an unremarkable term. This district was redrawn by the court ordered special master, so Faircloth currently serves District 61. Less than half the district voters have previously seen Faircloth s name on their ballot for House due to the redraw. Shafer is a health care executive who says she was driven to run for office after seeing the political tumult of 2016, both in North Carolina and nationally.

14 House District 63: Incumbent Republican Steve Ross serves as Deputy Majority Leader and is a Wells Fargo banker who has played a key role in Republican tax reform that shifted the tax burden to sales taxes. He faces a challenge from Democrat Erica McAdoo, a business manager and small farmer. The district covers the eastern part of Alamance County, situated at crossroads between several major universities, which has large population growth and a higher-than-average number of college-educated voters. House District 64: Incumbent Republican Dennis Riddell is a chairman of the Regulatory Reform Committee seeking his fourth term. Democrat Cathy Von Hassel- Davies is a local realtor who will give him a credible challenge. The district covers the western part of Alamance County which, like HD63, has seen a large influx of collegeeducated voters thanks to the proximity of several major universities.

15 House District 74: Incumbent Republican Debra Conrad is a Tea Party hipster and second-generation politician in Forsyth County who, prior to her three terms in the House, was a county commissioner for 18 years. She faces a challenge from Democrat Terri LeGrand, a mom and clean water advocate felt called to run for office after seeing the threats to drinking water caused by the legislature. This eastern Forsyth district has a high population of college-educated voters, being between Wake Forest University and Greensboro-area universities. House District 75: Incumbent Republican Donny Lambeth serves as a budget and Health Care Committee Chair. He faces a challenge from Democrat Dan Besse a longtime Winston-Salem city councilman. Neither Lambeth nor Besse have faced significant challengers for their respective seats since their first runs but have already traded barbs in press statements. The southwestern Forsyth district is situated directly between Greensboro and Winston-Salem with a high percentage of college-educated voters.

16 House District 82: Nine-term incumbent Republican Linda Johnson is a chair of both the Appropriations and Education committees. She faces a challenge from Democrat Aimy Steele, an elementary school principal from Concord. This district is located entirely in Cabarrus County and has a significant college-educated population that makes it competitive. This is another district profoundly changed in the most recent redraw of maps with just over half of the residents having previously had the opportunity to vote for incumbent Linda Johnson. House District 83: Incumbent Republican Larry Pittman is mostly known for making controversial statements, such as his recent comments that mass school shootings are a conspiracy by Socialist Democrats on a post misidentifying the Parkland shooting suspect. Last year he compared President Abraham Lincoln to Hitler. Pittman will face Democrat Gail Young in November. The district is made up mostly of Cabarrus with a portion of Rowan and has a significant college-educated population. Less than half of the district residents previously lived in the HD83 Pittman currently represents.

17 House District 93: Incumbent Republican Jonathan Jordan is a former researcher for the Art Pope-funded John Locke Foundation who now serves as Deputy Majority Whip in the House. He faces a challenge from Democrat Ray Russell, a college professor who runs the popular weather blog Ray s Weather that was named Business of the Year by the Boone Chamber in This district is centered on Appalachian State University, which makes the district so competitive that local Republicans have a long-standing fight to remove an early voting site from the university. House District 98: Incumbent Republican John Bradford serves as House Deputy Majority Whip. This northern Mecklenburg district leans Republican, but like Wake County, state and national factors combine to create problems for Bradford. Democrat Christy Clark proves a strong challenger. Clark is a small business owner who is an active community leader, serving as the North Carolina Chapter Leader of Moms Demand Action. Though less affected than other Mecklenburg districts by the redraw, only 70 percent of the voters that cast their ballot for Bradford in 2016 will see him on their ballot this year.

18 House District 103: Incumbent Bill Brawley serves as Senior Chair of the Finance Committee in the House and is seeking a fifth term. Brawley has been deeply antagonistic toward the local school system and faces Democrat Rachel Hunt, an education advocate, lawyer, and community leader who is the daughter of former fourterm Governor Jim Hunt. This southern Mecklenburg district leans more conservative but sees the same volatility for Republicans from both national and state factors as other Mecklenburg districts. This district was also greatly impacted by the redraw, and nearly half of residents have not previously seen Brawley on their ballot. House District 104: Incumbent Andy Dulin is serving his first term in the legislature and sits on the House Appropriations Committee. If Dulin wins a contested primary he will face Democrat Brandon Lofton. Lofton is a local attorney who began his legal career at the Ferguson, Stein, Chambers law firm, the first integrated law firm in North Carolina. Lofton was recently named to the Top 40 Under 40 by the Charlotte Business Journal. This district is one of the state s most competitive Republican-held districts, with Governor Cooper winning here in HD104 is one of the most redrawn districts in Mecklenburg; only 60 percent of current district voters live in the district that Dulin currently represents.

19 House District 105: Incumbent Republican Scott Stone is seeking his second full term in the legislature after being appointed to his seat in Stone has done little remarkable in his first term besides being a reliable vote for the Republican Supermajority. Democrats Wesley Harris will faces Stone in another district that Governor Cooper won in 2016 and it remains competitive with state and national factors trending against the Republican incumbent. House District 115: Incumbent Democrat John Ager is a popular incumbent in this eastern Buncombe district. Cooper won the district in 2016 by a close margin, but it will be one of the few tempting targets for Republicans to pick up a seat. Republican Amy Evans will be the one to make that attempt.

20 House District 116: Incumbent Democrat Brian Turner is in a similar situation as his eastern neighbor Rep. Ager, but finds himself in an even more Republican leaning district. HD116 is the best opportunity for a Republican pickup in the western part of the state. Marilyn Brown House District 118: Incumbent Michele Presnell faces a rematch with Democrat Rhonda Cole Schandevel, a former school board member from Haywood County. Due to a deeply unpopular incumbent this is one of the most Republican-leaning districts that Democrats have competed for in recent elections. Schandevel s Haywood County makes up more than half the district s population. She was a prolific fundraiser in 2016 in a race that attracted outside spending on both sides.

21 House District 119: Incumbent Mike Clampitt will face another matchup with Democrat Joe Sam Queen. This will be the third race between these two, with each winning one of the previous two contests. This district is particularly unpredictable due to a populist bent that saw Roy Cooper outperforming national Democrats by over 8 points.

22 Races to Watch House District 67: Republican Wayne Sasser, a Stanly County pharmacist, beat embattled incumbent Justin Burr in a Republican primary. He will face Democrat Karen Webster in November. Karen Webster House District 3: Incumbent Republican Michael Speciale has been one of the legislature s most controversial members: from joking about kicking dogs or hitting them with baseball bats during consideration of puppy mill legislation to sponsoring a bill to allow secession. He will face Barbara Lee in November. This district includes a significant African-American population, which could be pivotal if the higher than normal turnout seen in surprise Democratic victories in Virginia and Alabama holds true in North Carolina this year. While odds of a Blue Wave that goes this deep are long, it s probably the most serious chance of a Republican incumbent losing in a primary with credible Democratic opponents to face in the fall.