January 4, Happy New Year! What s Up

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1 Issue 606 January 4, 2016 Happy New Year! What s Up Legislative Races Come into Focus: With the general election 10 months away, nearly a third of the NC General Assembly, or 53 lawmakers, learned last month they won t have any opposition. That's because no one filed to run against 40 House members and 13 senators by the December 21 st noon deadline. The number of uncontested candidates resembles the last election, in 2014, when 56 legislators didn't face challenges. In many of the districts with only one candidate filing, one party has such a huge advantage that the minority party typically doesn't field a candidate. That s the result of a redistricting process that often lumps like-minded voters into the same districts. Some other races have drawn several major-party candidates but from the same party. Those seats are likely to be settled March 15, though some of those winners will face Libertarians in November. What it Means: The upshot is that, despite their heft in statewide politics, Republicans aren't bothering to run a candidate in 29 House races involving the 120-member House and six Senate races, all held by Democrats, involving the 50-member Senate. Democrats don t have candidates in 28 House races and 12 Senate races. "Ideally we would like to have candidates in every race," said House Majority Leader Mike Hager, a Republican from Rutherfordton who's running unopposed. But Hager admits that recruiting candidates in heavily Democratic districts is a tough sell. The lack of competition is the result of gerrymandering, the bipartisan practice, depending on what party is in power, of drawing oddly shaped districts to favor that party. The district lines favored a Democratic majority until Republicans drew new districts after the 2010 Census. Earlier this year, legislators from both parties introduced legislation earlier to create a nonpartisan redistricting process that would result in more competitive elections. But House and Senate leaders in the GOP-led legislature refused to bring the proposal up for a vote.

2 Change Sought: The advocacy group, North Carolinians to End Gerrymandering Now, says the 53 uncontested races point to a need for change. "When voters don't have a choice, they don't ask questions, and issues won't get discussed," said former Raleigh Mayor Tom Bradshaw, one of the group's leaders. In Wake County, for instance, Democratic Sen. Dan Blue, a former state House Speaker, hasn't faced an opponent since Next year will be the third election in a row in which voters in his district don't have a choice. Opponents of the Republican-led redistricting maps have challenged them in court, claiming that the districts are racial gerrymanders designed to weaken the influence of black voters. Last month, the N.C. Supreme Court ruled in favor of the maps in a 4-3 split along party lines; an appeal to the federal courts is expected. Some unopposed candidates say their lack of opposition isn't because of the district lines. Rep. Kelly Hastings, a Cleveland County Republican, said he's unopposed next year in part because he's focused on his district's needs, particularly road projects. Congressional Picture: While the current districts might discourage participation in some legislative elections, both parties have a candidate next year in nearly all of North Carolina s 13 Congressional districts. Many of the districts will hold primaries between several candidates from the same party. Democrats hold only three of the state's congressional seats, but the party will have a candidate in all 13 races next year even GOP-leaning ones where an upset is unlikely. For example, Josh Brannon, a software developer from Boone, ran against incumbent Republican Rep. Virginia Foxx in 2014, and he'd been hoping someone else would accept the challenge this election cycle. "I had not intended to run again," the Democrat said after filing for election on Dec. 21, according to the Charlotte Observer. "When I found out that no one had filed to run, I could not let them win by default, so I'm back. Tight Races: According to The Insider, here are some key races to watch: House Primaries Four House Primaries to Watch in 2016 Democratic House District 9 (Pitt County) Former Rep. Brian Brown, a Republican, resigned from this seat earlier this year. Republican Greg Murphy was appointed to serve out his term. But Democrats think they could win this seat and have two candidates vying for the right to challenge Murphy in November. Brian Farkas, who works at a Greenville architecture firm, will face Walter Gaskins, a member of the Pitt County school board, in the Democratic primary. The Greenville area often has interesting legislative matchups, and 2016 should be no different in the primary and general elections. House District 118 (Haywood, Madison and Yancey counties)

3 Democrats are jazzed about the possibilities in this district, with two candidates they say are capable to unseat incumbent Republican Rep. Michele Presnell of Burnsville. In the Democratic primary, former Madison County Commissioner Reese Steen faces Rhonda Cole Schandevel, a Haywood County school board member. Steen is a dentist and Schandevel is a dental hygienist. The winner will face Presnell in November in a district that is potentially winnable for Democrats. Republican House District 20 (New Hanover County) With GOP Rep. Rick Catlin bowing out of the legislature after next year and no Democratic candidate in this race, this House seat will be determined in the GOP primary. It features political newcomer and businesswoman Holly Grange, a member of the N.C. State Ports Authority board of directors, squaring off against New Hanover County school board member Tammy Covil. This race is already generating headlines in the Wilmington area and isn't expected to be a friendly, winner-take-all primary battle. House District 67 (Montgomery and Stanly counties) Republican Rep. Justin Burr has been in the news as of late criticizing the House leadership under House Speaker Tim Moore. Burr, a bail bondsman from Albemarle in his fourth term, faces a primary challenge from Lane Burris, a former captain of the Stanly County Sheriff's Office who helped oversee the county jail. Insiders say Burris might get financial backing from establishment Republicans to try to oust Burr. This has all the makings. The winner will face a Democrat in November, but the district likely will stay in Republican hands, making the GOP primary especially important. Senate Primaries Four N.C. Senate Primaries to Watch in 2016 Democratic District 16 (Wake County) Democratic Sen. Josh Stein of Raleigh has held this seat for four terms but is stepping down to run for attorney general. Seeking the Democratic nomination here are Ellis Hankins, former executive director of the N.C. League of Municipalities, and Jay Chaudhuri, a lawyer with extensive ties to state government, including stints working for Treasurer Janet Cowell and Attorney General Roy Cooper. Both candidates should raise significant campaign cash to help get their messages out. The winner will face Republican Eric Weaver in November, but the district strongly favors Democrats. Republican District 11 (Johnston, Nash and Wilson counties) Three-term Republican Sen. Buck Newton is retiring to run for attorney general. Seeking to replace him are Republicans Benton Sawrey and Rick Horner, both legitimate contenders. Sawrey, of Clayton, is a young attorney and Johnston County native. Horner, of Wilson, is a commercial insurance agent and former school board member. Both are active in the community and have the potential to raise money. The Republican primary winner should have a good chance against Democrat Albert Pacer in this district that favors the GOP.

4 District 36 (Cabarrus and Union counties) It's not unexpected with the retirement of Republican Sen. Fletcher Hartsell after a quarter century in the General Assembly that four Republicans signed up to replace him. One of those candidates is Paul Newton, the former Duke Energy state president for North Carolina, who retired earlier this year. Also in the race are Parish Moffitt, a pilot and Navy veteran; Scott Aumuller, an anesthesiologist; and Amy Blake, an educator. Any primary race with four candidates is intriguing, and all four seem like legitimate contenders. The nominee will face the winner of a Democratic primary in November, but the district is strong for Republicans. District 44 (Gaston, Iredell and Lincoln counties) This could be the one GOP Senate primary where an incumbent could lose. Two-term incumbent Sen. David Curtis, an optometrist from Denver, is opposed by Chris Carney, a former Mooresville commissioner. Carney filled the unexpired term of former Sen. Jim Forrester after he died in 2011, but lost to Curtis in a runoff for the Republican nomination for that seat in Curtis likely will be supported by the Republican Senate guard, while Carney is taking an interesting primary approach by bashing the current Republican-led legislature. This should be fun to follow, with the winner facing Libertarian Nic Haag in November. Apodaca Seat: Former Buncombe County Board of Education member Lisa Baldwin filed for state Senate, setting up a three-way Republican battle for the 48th District being vacated by Sen. Tom Apodaca, R-Henderson, who is retiring. Also running on the Republican side of the ballot are Chuck Edwards, a businessman from Flat Rock, and perennial candidate Dennis Justice from Fletcher. Norm Bossert, an educator who lives in Pisgah Forest, is the only Democratic candidate. The strongly Republican district includes Henderson and Transylvania counties and a handful of communities in southern Buncombe County such as Upper Hominy, Avery's Creek, Arden, Skyland and part of Fairview, where Baldwin lives. Baldwin was elected to the county school board in 2010 and clashed repeatedly with other members of the nonpartisan board. She lost her re-election bid in Other News More Filing News: Of the surprises of how many candidates, from state to local levels, are running unopposed, one that caught some attention is Rep. John Blust, R-Guilford, who will run unopposed for his District 62 seat. Greensboro City Councilman Tony Wilkins had been eyeing a Republican primary challenge against Blust. But Wilkins didn t file, saying the time the state General Assembly would absorb didn't work for his family. "Being able to spend time and attend the activities of my 12- and 13-year-old children are a top priority in my life," Wilkins said.

5 Also, Rep. Pricey Harrison, D-Guilford, will also run unopposed for her District 57 seat, along with first-term Rep. Cecil Brockman, D-Guilford, in District 60 and veteran Rep. John Faircloth in District 61. Senate leader Phil Berger, R-Rockingham, one of the most powerful politicians in the state, will also face no opposition for his District 26 seat, according to the Greensboro News- Record. NC No. 9 in Population: Propelled largely by growth in the Charlotte and Raleigh areas, North Carolina's population passed the 10 million mark in the past year, according to newly released estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau. The state remains the nation's ninth-most populous, just behind Georgia and just ahead of Michigan. From July 1, 2014, to July 1, 2015, North Carolina added 102,415 residents, more than all but five other states, according to census estimates. That marks an average of 281 new residents each day. Quote of the Week "Why put yourself out there and get eaten by the wolf?" - House Majority Leader Mike Hager, R-Rutherford, on recruiting Republican candidates in a heavily Democratic district (The News & Observer, 12/21/15) Editor - Dave Simpson, NCACTE Lobbyist, P. O. Box 30998, Raleigh, N.C Phone - (919) , #5724; dsimpson@carolinasagac.org