Key Players and Regional Dynamics in Eurasia

Transcription

1 Key Players and Regional Dynamics in Eurasia

2 Also by Maria Raquel Freire CONFLICT AND SECURITY IN THE FORMER SOVIET UNION: The Role of the OSCE Also by Roger E. Kanet THE COLD WAR AS COOPERATION: Superpower Cooperation in Regional Conflict Management (edited with Edward A. Kolodziej) THE FOREIGN POLICY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION (edited with Alexander V. Kozhemiakin) THE LIMITS OF SOVIET POWER IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD: Thermidor in the Revolutionary Struggle (edited with Edward A. Kolodziej) POST-COMMUNIST STATES IN THE WORLD COMMUNITY: Selected Papers from the Fifth World Congress of Central and East European Studies, Warsaw 1995 (edited with William E. Ferry) RUSSIA, RE-EMERGING GREAT POWER (editor) RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY IN THE 21ST CENTURY

3 Key Players and Regional Dynamics in Eurasia The Return of the Great Game Edited by Maria Raquel Freire Assistant Professor, Department of International Relations, University of Coimbra, Portugal and Roger E. Kanet Professor, Department of International Studies, University of Miami, US Palgrave macmillan

4 Editorial matter, selection, introduction and conclusion Maria Raquel Freire and Roger E. Kanet 2010 All remaining chapters respective authors 2010 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No portion of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, Saffron House, 6 10 Kirby Street, London EC1N 8TS. Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The authors have asserted their rights to be identified as the authors of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act First published 2010 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN Palgrave Macmillan in the UK is an imprint of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number , of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan in the US is a division of St Martin s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave and Macmillan are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. ISBN ISBN (ebook) DOI / This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. Logging, pulping and manufacturing processes are expected to conform to the environmental regulations of the country of origin. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Key players and regional dynamics in Eurasia : the return of the great game / edited by Maria Raquel Freire and Roger E. Kanet. p. cm. 1. Eurasia Politics and government 21st century. 2. Geopolitics Eurasia. I. Freire, Maria Raquel, 1973 II. Kanet, Roger E., 1936 DK293.K '3 dc

5 Contents Map and Table Notes on Contributors Preface vii viii xiv Introduction Russia in Eurasia: External Players and Regional Dynamics 1 Maria Raquel Freire and Roger E. Kanet Part I The Russian Federation and the Greater Caspian Basin 11 1 Russia and the CIS Region: The Russian Regional Security Complex 13 Bertil Nygren 2 International Rivalries in Eurasia 29 Stephen Blank 3 Eurasia at the Heart of Russian Politics: Dynamics of (In)Dependence in a Complex Setting 55 Maria Raquel Freire Part II External Powers, Russia and Eurasia 79 4 Russia and the Greater Caspian Basin: Withstanding the US Challenge 81 Roger E. Kanet 5 Competing for Eurasia: Russian and European Union Perspectives 103 Sandra Fernandes and Licínia Simão 6 Russia and China in Eurasia: The Wary Partnership 126 John Berryman 7 India and Central Asia 146 Amit Das Gupta 8 Eurasia between Russia, Turkey, and Iran 164 Mohiaddin Mesbahi Part III Intergovernmental Organisations and Non-State Actors, Russia and Eurasia Senseless Dreams and Small Steps: The CIS and CSTO between Integration and Cooperation 195 Richard Sakwa v

6 vi Contents 10 The Atlantic Alliance in Eurasia: A Different Player? 215 Alberto Priego 11 Intergovernmental Organisations and Non-State Actors, Russia and Eurasia: The OSCE 238 P. Terrence Hopmann 12 Strategic Resources, Strategic Players: The Role of National versus International Oil Companies in Post-Soviet Eurasia 271 Heidi Kjærnet Conclusion 290 Maria Raquel Freire and Roger E. Kanet Index 296

7 Map and Table Map 4.1 Gas pipelines in Europe 92 Source: Nies (2008), p. 5. Reprinted with the permission of Institut français des relations internationales. Table 4.1 Major recipients of Russian natural gas exports, vii

8 Notes on Contributors John Berryman teaches International Relations at Birkbeck College, University of London and is Associate Professor in International Studies at the American Institute for Foreign Study, London. He was previously Head of the Division of European and International Studies and a member of the Russian and East European Research Centre at the University of Wolverhampton. His recent publications include Russia, NATO Enlargement and the New Lands in Between, in Roger E. Kanet (ed.), A Resurgent Russia and the West: The European Union, NATO and Beyond (2009); Russia and China in the New Central Asia: The Security Agenda, in Roger E. Kanet (ed.), Russia: Re-Emerging Great Power (2007), and Putin s International Security Priorities, in Roger E. Kanet (ed.), The New Security Environment: The Impact on Russia, Central and Eastern Europe (2005). He is a member of the International Institute for Strategic Studies and the Royal Institute of International Affairs. Stephen Blank has served as the expert on the Soviet bloc and the post- Soviet world at the Strategic Studies Institute of the US Army War College since Prior to that he was Associate Professor of Soviet Studies at the Center for Aerospace Doctrine, Research, and Education, Maxwell Air Force Base and taught at the University of Texas, San Antonio, and at the University of California, Riverside. He is the editor of Imperial Decline: Russia s Changing Position in Asia, co-editor of Soviet Military and the Future and author of The Sorcerer as Apprentice: Stalin s Commissariat of Nationalities, He has also written many articles and conference papers on Russian, Commonwealth of Independent States, and Eastern European security issues. Dr Blank s current research deals with proliferation and the revolution in military affairs, and energy and security in Eurasia. His most recent books are Towards a New Russia Policy (2008); U.S. Interests in Central Asia and the Challenges to Them (2007); Russo-Chinese Energy Relations: Politics in Command (2006) and Natural Allies?: Regional Security in Asia and Prospects for Indo-American Strategic Cooperation (2005). He holds a BA in History from the University of Pennsylvania, and an MA and Ph.D. in History from the University of Chicago. Amit Das Gupta is scientific collaborator in the Institute for Contemporary History of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Germany. His research concentrates on the foreign, security, and development policy of Germany and on South Asia since the independence of India and Pakistan in His publications include Handel, Hilfe, Hallstein-Doctrine: Die bundesdeutsche viii

9 Notes on Contributors ix Südasienpolitik unter Adenauer und Erhard 1949 bis 1966 (Trade, Aid, Hallstein Doctrine: The South Asia Policy of the Federal Republic of Germany under Adenauer and Erhard, 1949 to 1966), in the series, Historische Studien (2004) and numerous articles that have appeared in Südasien, Magazine of the Südasienbuero, Internationale Spectator, and elsewhere. He previously held the position of senior researcher at the Germany Institute of the University of Amsterdam. Sandra Fernandes has been Lecturer in international relations at the University of Minho (Portugal) since She was awarded the Jacques Delors Prize 2005 for her research on the relations between the European Union and Russia, in particular their political and security dimensions. Since October 2005, she has been working for her Ph.D. on EU Russia relations, under the supervision of Bertrand Badie at Sciences Po (Paris). She has been a guest lecturer at the Free University of Brussels (ULB), the Moscow State Institute (University) of International Relations (MGIMO) and the Izmir University of Economics (Turkey). She also collaborated with the Portuguese Embassy to the Russian Federation in the context of the Portuguese Presidency of the EU. She is at present a visiting research fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) in Brussels. Her recent publications include European (In)Security. The European Union, Russia and the Atlantic Alliance: The Institutionalisation of a Strategic Relationship (2006); ESDP and Russia: A Decade of Unfulfilled Promise, forthcoming by Elsevier; The European Union and Russia: A Key to European stability?, forthcoming by the European Studies Institute (ESI) of MGIMO, Moscow; Redefining the European Security Architecture: Where Do the European Union and Russia Stand?, forthcoming by Biblioteca Nueva, Madrid; EU Policies towards Russia, : Realpolitik Intended, in N. Tocci (ed.) (2008), Russia in Europe: The Challenges of Political Convergence (2008). Maria Raquel Freire is Assistant Professor in the Department of International Relations at the University of Coimbra and researcher at the Centre for Social Studies (CES) of the University of Coimbra. She is also Co-ordinator of the Ph.D. Programme in International Politics and Conflict Resolution at the same university, co-ordinator of the Peace Studies Group at the Centre for Social Studies, and a member of the Board of Directors of the Portuguese Political Science Association. Her research focuses on foreign policy, Russia and the post-soviet space and peace studies. She has published papers in refereed journals dealing with these topics, such as the Caucasian Review of International Affairs, Asian Perspective, Global Society, Comparative Constitutional Review, Journal of Conflict, Security and Development, and The Bologna Center Journal of International Affairs. Recent publications include a chapter on Russia and the EU in R. E. Kanet (ed.), A Resurgent Russia and the West: The European Union, NATO and Beyond (2009); Russia and the CIS states, in E. A. Kolodziej

10 x Notes on Contributors and R. E. Kanet (eds), From Superpower to Besieged Global Power: Implications for American Foreign Policy and Global Order (2008); The ESDP:History, Structures and Capabilities, in M. Merlingen and R. Ostrauskaite (eds), The European Security and Defence Policy: An Implementation Perspective (2008). She is also the author of Conflict and Security in the Former Soviet Union: The Role of the OSCE (2003); The Challenges to Democratisation in a Global World (2004), and Russian Foreign Policy under Putin (forthcoming, in Portuguese). P. Terrence Hopmann is Professor of International Relations and Director of the Conflict Management Program at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies of The Johns Hopkins University. Until 1 July 2008 he was Professor of political science and Chair of the Political Science Department at Brown University, where he also was director of the Global Security Program of the Thomas J. Watson Jr. Institute of International Studies, the Center for Foreign Policy Development and the International Relations Program; was Professor of political science at the University of Minnesota and director of its Harold Scott Quigley Center for International Studies; served as Vice President of the International Studies Association and Programme Chair of three ISA international meetings; held the position of editor of the International Studies Quarterly; was a Fulbright Fellow four times, twice in Belgium and twice in Austria, and was a senior fellow at the United States Institute of Peace and the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. His research focuses on the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe. Professor Hopmann works primarily in the areas of international security, negotiation, and conflict management. His research focuses on theories of international negotiation and conflict resolution; on negotiations on arms control and disarmament; and on the role of international institutions, especially the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), in promoting good governance, human rights, and conflict management in the former Soviet states and the Balkans since the end of the Cold War. His major publications include Building Security in Post-Cold War Eurasia: The OSCE and U.S. Foreign Policy (1999); The Negotiation Process and the Resolution of International Conflicts (1996); Rethinking the Nuclear Weapons Dilemma in Europe (1988); Unity and Disintegration in International Alliances, co-author (1973, reprinted in 1984); and numerous articles and books. Roger E. Kanet is Professor in the Department of International Studies of the University of Miami, where he served as Dean of the School of International Studies Prior to 1997, he taught at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, where he was a member of the Department of Political Science and served as Head of that Department, , and as Associate Vice Chancellor for Academic Affairs and Director of International Programs and Studies ( ). He has published more than 200 scholarly articles

11 Notes on Contributors xi and edited more than 25 books. Recent publications include The United States and Europe in a Changing World (2009); A Resurgent Russia and the West: The European Union, NATO and Beyond (2009); From Superpower to Besieged Global Power: Restoring World Order after the Failure of the Bush Doctrine (2008) (co-edited with Edward A. Kolodziej); Russia, Re-Emerging Great Power (2007); and The New Security Environment: The Impact on Russia, Central and Eastern Europe (2005). He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, New York. Heidi Kjærnet is a Research Fellow at the Energy Programme of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI). She is a doctoral candidate working on the project provisionally entitled Petroleum, Politics and Power: The Cases of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia, which aims to analyse the relations between state petroleum companies and the state in these three countries. Her main research interest is energy politics and foreign relations in the post-soviet space. She is the coeditor of a forthcoming Routledge book Caspian Petroleum Politics: Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan (with Indra Overland and Andrea Herschman Kendall-Taylor). Mohiaddin Mesbahi is Professor of International Relations at Florida International University (FIU), Miami, Florida, and the Director of Middle East Studies Center. He received his Ph.D. from the University of Miami in 1988 and conducted postdoctoral research at Oxford University (England) in He is the author of numerous works on Soviet Iranian relations and the international relations of Central Asia and the former Soviet Union. His most recent works include Russia and the Third World in the Post-Soviet Era (1993) and Central Asia and the Caucasus after the Soviet Union: Domestic and International Dynamics (1994). His articles have appeared in Central Asian Survey, Middle East Journal, and Middle East Insight. His current research agenda includes the role of subjectivity in US Iran relations, and the role and impact of securitisation of culture and identity on shaping the key characteristics of the contemporary international security system. Bertil Nygren is Associate Professor of political science at the Swedish National Defence College and at the Department of Political Science, Stockholm University. He has held various administrative positions at Stockholm University, including Head of Department and Deputy Head of Department His most recent monograph is The Rebuilding of Greater Russia: Putin s Foreign Policy Toward the CIS Countries (2008). He has also published articles and chapters in various anthologies on Russian politics, especially foreign policy. These include an article in Problems of Post- Communism and chapters in Roger E. Kanet (ed), Russia: Re-Emerging Great Power (2007); Kjell Engelbrekt and Jan Hallenberg (eds), The European Union and Strategy: An Emerging Actor (2008); Charlotte Wagnsson, James Sperling,

12 xii Notes on Contributors and Jan Hallenberg (eds),the EU in a Multipolar World: Security Governance Meets Great Power Gambit (2009); Roger Kanet (ed.), A Resurgent Russia and Europe (2009); Kjell Engelbrekt and Bertil Nygren (eds), Russia and Europe: Building Partnerships, Digging Trenches (2010); Patrik Ahlgren, Bo Huldt, Susanna Huldt, Juha Kurtunen and Bertil Nygren (eds), Russia on our Minds. Russia and Northern Europe, Strategic Yearbook 2009 (2010). Alberto Priego is currently teaching at the Universidad Pontificia de Comillas in Madrid. Earlier he was Associate Professor of International Relations and Regional Integration in Asia and the Pacific and Security and Cooperation in Europe at Complutense University (Madrid). He has also taught at the UNED University (Madrid) and at the School of Oriental and African Studies of the University of London. His research deals with political Islam, democracy and local tradition in Central Asia. He holds a BA in Political Science, an M.Phil. in International Relations and a Ph.D. in Political Science (Honors) from Complutense University. His recent publications include NATO Cooperation towards South Caucasus, Caucasian Review of International Affairs (2008), Why Pakistan is a Desirable State for Radical Jihadism, Safe Democracy (2008) and Pakistan between Central and South Asia RSC, Central Asia and the Caucasus (forthcoming). Richard Sakwa is Professor of Russian and European Politics at the University of Kent at Canterbury and an Associate Fellow of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at the Royal Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House. He has published widely on Soviet, Russian and post-communist affairs. Recent books include: Postcommunism (1999), Contextualising Secession: Normative Aspects of Secession Struggles (2003) (co-edited with Bruno Coppieters); the edited volume Chechnya: From Past to Future (2005); Russian Politics and Society (2008); Putin: Russia s Choice (2008), and The Quality of Freedom: Khodorkovsky, Putin and the Yukos Affair (2009). He is currently working on The Crisis of Russian Democracy: Factionalism and the Medvedev Succession. Licínia Simão recently received a Ph.D. in International Relations at the School of Economics, University of Coimbra, Portugal. Her research deals with the European Union s Neighbourhood Policy towards the Southern Caucasus, with a focus on political and security issues. She is currently a junior researcher at NICPRI and was a visiting research fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies, in Brussels, from January to October Publications include The European Neighbourhood Policy Viewed from Belarus and Georgia with A. Vysotskaya V. G., CFSP Forum (2008); The EU s Neighborhood Policy and the South Caucasus: Unfolding New Patterns of Cooperation, with M. R. Freire, Caucasian Review of International Affairs (2008); Shaping EU South Caucasus Relations through Strategic Patterns: Energy and Conflicts in Perspective, in Barrinha, A. (ed.), Towards a Global Dimension: EU s Conflict

13 Notes on Contributors xiii Management in the Neighbourhood and Beyond (2008); The Case for Opening the Turkish Armenian Border with N. Tocci, B. Gültenkin, and N. Tavitian, study for the Foreign Affairs Committee of the European Parliament (2007); The Armenian Road to Democracy Dimensions of a Tortuous Process, with M. R. Freire, CEPS Working Document (2007); The EU s Neighborhood Policy towards the Southern Caucasus: Searching for Commonalty in a Patchy Scenario, with M. R. Freire, Comparative Constitutional Review Journal (2007, in Russian). She has presented papers at several international conferences, such as the UACES 38th annual conference, the Second WISC conference, and the 7th International CISS Millennium Conference, among others.

14 Preface The editors wish to express their sincere appreciation to the authors of the chapters in this volume for both the quality of the analyses they have provided and for the speed and efficiency with which they revised the original drafts of their papers and responded to various editorial suggestions for clarification and for the strengthening of the arguments presented. The original idea for a volume focusing on the growing complexity of political and economic interactions in Central Asia and the Greater Caspian Basin and the role of external actors in those interactions emerged from research carried out by Maria Raquel Freire. Since she had worked on several other projects with Roger Kanet, and knowing well his extensive past role as organiser and editor, she asked whether he would be willing to join with her in completing a team of scholars to investigate the various aspects of the issue and in editing the resulting volume. He enthusiastically agreed, as the proposed project was directly relevant to his own interests. Because of the wonders of the Internet they easily created a team of scholars from across seven countries in Europe and North America with whom they have maintained regular contact in modifying and extending the various parts of the analysis. On behalf of all of the authors the editors wish to thank the many others who have made important contributions to the final draft, in particular anonymous readers for the publisher and the publisher s production staff. Their contributions have helped to ensure the clarity and readability of the final manuscript. Maria Raquel Freire Coimbra, Portugal Roger E. Kanet Miami, Florida xiv