From June 24 to June 28, 2019 TRADE. Globalization, firms and trade policies PSE SUMMER SCHOOL.

Transcription

1 From June 24 to June 28, 2019 TRADE Globalization, firms and trade policies PSE SUMMER SCHOOL

2 TRADE Globalization, firms and trade policies From June 24 to June 28, 2019 OVERVIEW This programme addresses recent debates at the frontier of the field: globalization, the distributive effects of trade, the role of large firms in the global economy, advances in methods to analyze firm level export data and finally the revival of trade policies: Trade Policy I (Mathieu Parenti, ULB) 9 h Trade Policy II (Anne Célia Disdier, PSE) 6 h Heterogeneity and Competition in Global Markets (Carsten Eckel, Ludwig Maximilians University) 6 h Trade and Income Distribution (Ariell Reshef, PSE) 9 h PREREQUISITES Graduates in economics with strong theoretical and empirical skills. PROFESSORS Anne Célia Disdier is Senior Researcher at the Paris School of Economics, INRA since She was researcher at the Public Policy lab of the INRA since She has also been and Consultant for the OECD, Trade and Agriculture Directorate, and a Post doc fellow with the Centro Studi Luca d Agliano, within the CEPR Research Training Network Trade, Industrialization and Development. In 2011 she won the INRA Young Researcher Award. She has published papers in many journals, including American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Canadian Journal of Economics, Health Economics, Journal of Comparative Economics, Journal of International Economics, Review of Economics and Statistics, Review of International Economics, or The World Bank Economic Review. Her research focuses on modelling international trade, and measuring the impact of NTMs, with a particular reference to agriculture. anne celia/ Carsten Eckel is Professor of economics at Ludwig Maximilians Universität München (LMU Munich) where he holds the Chair of International Trade and Trade Policy. He received his PhD from the University of Passau in 2000 and was a Post doctoral research fellow at the Department of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration (NHH, Bergen) in He joined the University of Göttingen as an Assistant Professor in 2003, became full professor at the University of Bamberg in 2007 and joined LMU Munich in He has written influential studies on Multi product firms, Flexible manufacturing and Tax competition. He has published in leading journals, including the Review of Economic Studies, Journal of International Economics, and American Economic Journal: Economic Policy. He is a research fellow of CEPR (London), CESIfo (Munich), and of the Leverhulme Centre for Research on Globalisation and Economic Policy (GEP, Nottingham). muenchen.de/personen/professoren/prof_eckel/index.html Mathieu Parenti is an assistant Professor at Université Libre de Bruxelles, a research fellow at the European Center for Advanced Research in Economics and Statistics (ECARES) and a research affiliate at the Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR). He has received his PhD from the Paris School of Economics (Université Paris 1) in His fields of research are International Trade and Industrial Organization. His recent papers focus on trade agreements as well as tax optimization strategies by multinational firms.

3 Ariell Reshef is an Associate Member of the Paris School of Economics and a CNRS researcher (Directeur de Recherche) at the Centre d'economie de la Sorbonne, Université Paris 1 Panthéon Sorbonne. Until January 2016 he was an Associate Professor (with tenure) at the University of Virginia. He obtained his Ph.D. in economics from New York University in His research interests focus on income distribution in particular, the relationship of labor markets with global trade, technological change, and regulation. His work lies at the intersection of International Trade, Labor Economics, and Macroeconomics. His current research projects examine structural change of employment and evolution of productivity in France, compensation in the financial sector, and the long run evolution of the legal services sector in the United States. ariell/ Programme Supervisor: Lionel Fontagné Lionel Fontagné is Professor of economics at the Paris School of Economics, Université Paris I Panthéon Sorbonne, and the Director of the Centre d Economie de la Sorbonne (CES, Paris). He has been the Director of the Centre d Etudes Prospectives et d Informations Internationales (CEPII, Paris) from 2000 to He has also been a member of the Conseil d'analyse Economique (Council of Economic Analysis to the French Prime Minister), and he is a scientific advisor to CEPII and a CESifo Research Fellow (Munich). He has written numerous studies on international trade and integration issues. His recent works focus on heterogeneous firms reaction to trade protection and long term developments of the world economy. lionel/

4 SCHEDULE Monday June, am 9 am Welcome coffee 9 am am Mathieu Parenti, Trade Policy I am am Break am pm Anne Célia Disdier, Trade Policy II pm 1.30 pm Lunch 1.30 pm 3 pm Mathieu Parenti, Trade Policy I 3 pm 3.15 pm Break 3.15 pm 4.45 pm Anne Célia Disdier, Trade Policy II 6 pm 7 pm Gilles Saint Paul, Plenary Lecture From 7 pm Welcome Cocktail Tuesday June, 25 9 am 11 am Mathieu Parenti, Trade Policy I 11 am am Break am 1 pm Anne Célia Disdier, Trade Policy II 1 pm 2.30 pm Lunch 2.30 pm 4 pm Paris Trade Seminar, Matilde Bombardini (UBC), Trade Policy (Jourdan Campus) 4 pm 4.15 pm Break 4.15 pm 5.45 pm Anne Célia Disdier, Trade Policy II From 6 pm Social Event Wednesday June, 26 9 am am Mathieu Parenti, Trade Policy I am am Break am pm Carsten Eckel, Heterogeneity and Competition in Global Markets pm 1.30 pm Lunch 1.30 pm 3 pm Mathieu Parenti, Trade Policy I 3 pm 3.15 pm Break 3.15 pm 4.45 pm Carsten Eckel, Heterogeneity and Competition in Global Markets Thursday June, 27 9 am am Ariell Reshef, Trade and Income Distribution am am Break am pm Carsten Eckel, Heterogeneity and Competition in Global Markets pm 1.30 pm Lunch 1.30 pm 3.30 pm Ariell Reshef, Trade and Income Distribution 3.30 pm 3.45 pm Break 3.45 pm 5.15 pm Carsten Eckel, Heterogeneity and Competition in Global Markets From 6 pm Social Event Friday June, 28 9 am am Ariell Reshef, Trade and Income Distribution am am Break am am Workshop pm 1.30 pm Lunch 1.30 pm 3 pm Ariell Reshef, Trade and Income Distribution 3 pm 3.15 pm Break 3.15 pm 4.45 pm Ariell Reshef, Trade and Income Distribution From 6 pm Social Farewell cocktail/certificates

5 TRADE Heterogeneity and Competition in Global Markets Carsten Eckel OBJECTIVES This course takes place on Wednesday and Thursday We know from recent empirical research that only a relatively small subset of firms actually engages in exporting, and that exporters differ from non exporting firms in a number of dimensions: They are larger, more productive, sell more products, charge higher prices, pay higher wages, and employ a more productive workforce. This course will address the causes and consequences of this heterogeneity. It covers recent research on vertical differentiation within firms and across countries, on the role of worker heterogeneity for firm heterogeneity, and on the importance of trade intermediations for market outcomes. These issues are important to assess the welfare gains and the distributional consequences of trade liberalization. COURSE STRUCTURE & REFERENCES 1. Firm Heterogeneity and Product Quality Flach, Lisandra, and Michael Irlacher. "Product versus Process: Innovation Strategies of Multiproduct Firms." American Economic Journal: Microeconomics 10.1 (2018): Eckel, Carsten and Florian Unger. "Credit constraints, endogenous innovations, and price setting in international trade." CEPR Discussion Papers No. DP11727, December 2016 Eckel, Carsten, Leonardo Iacovone, Beata Javorcik, and Peter Neary. "Multi product Firms at Home and Away: Costversus Quality based Competence." Journal of International Economics 95.2 (2015): Eckel, Carsten, and Peter Neary. "Multi Product Firms and Flexible Manufacturing in the Global Economy." Review of Economic Studies, 77.1 (2010): Worker Heterogeneity and Trade Yeaple, Stephen A Simple Model of Firm Heterogeneity, International Trade, and Wages, Journal of International Economics, 2005, 65(1): Helpman, Elhanan, Oleg Itskhoki, and Stephen J. Redding "Inequality and Unemployment in a Global Economy." Econometrica 78(4), Grossman, Gene M. "Heterogeneous Workers and International Trade" Review of World Economics, vol. 149, no.2, 2013 Eckel, Carsten and Stephen R. Yeaple. "Too Much of a Good Thing? Labor Market Imperfections as a Source of Exceptional Exporter Performance", NBER Working Paper No (previous version) 3. Traders and Trade Cole, Matthew T., and Carsten Eckel. "Tariffs and Markups in Retailing." Journal of International Economics 113 (2018): Eckel, Carsten and Riezman, Raymond G., Cats and Dogs (December 2016). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP Andrew B Bernard Emily J Blanchard Ilke Van Beveren Hylke Vandenbussche. "Carry Along Trade." The Review of Economic Studies, forthcoming,

6 TRADE Trade and Income Distribution Ariell Reshef OBJECTIVES This course takes place on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday The goal is to study the income distribution consequences of globalization: trade in final goods, trade in intermediate inputs, trade in capital, offshoring, foreign direct investment, multinational firm activity. We will consider several channels through which globalization, and in particular changes in market access, affects domestic labor markets, for example, through changes in relative demand for different types of labor inputs, or through changes in incentives to invest and technological responses. These manifest themselves in the distribution of income via reallocation of resources across productive units, changes in the internal organization of productive units, fair wages, and more. Given the inherent complementarities between technology and market access, it is impossible to discuss globalization without any mention of technological change, so we will also touch upon this topic as well. COURSE STRUCTURE & REFERENCES 0. General Background Readings Wood (1995): How Trade Hurt Unskilled Workers, The Journal of Economic Perspectives Richardson (1995): Income Inequality and Trade: How to Think, What to Conclude, The Journal of Economic Perspectives Freeman (1995): Are Your Wages Set in Beijing?, The Journal of Economic Perspectives Harrison, McLaren and McMillan (2011): Recent Perspectives on Trade and Inequality, World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper Dix Carneiro and Kovak (2017): "Trade Liberalization and Regional Dynamics", American Economic Review. 1. Why do we think trade and income distribution are linked? Basic Heckscher Ohlin logic: competition in the product space and industry reallocation. Theoretical underpinnings Counterfactual predictions and (tentative) empirical failure Does China joining the global trade system not matter for income distribution? 2. Juxtaposing the technology narrative with trade liberalization Berman, Bound and Griliches (1994): "Changes in the Demand for Skilled Labor within U.S. Manufacturing: Evidence from the Annual Survey of Manufacturers", The Quarterly Journal of Economics Machin and van Reenen (1998): "Technology and Changes in the Skill Structure: Evidence from Seven OECD Countries", The Quarterly Journal of Economics Bernard and Jensen (1997): "Exporters, Skill Upgrading, and the Wage Gap", Journal of International Economics Harrigan and Reshef (2015): "Skill biased heterogeneous firms, trade liberalization and the skill premium", Canadian Journal of Economics 3. The capital input channel of trade liberalization Csillag and Koren (2011): "Machines and machinists: Capital skill complementarity from an international trade perspective", working paper Burstein, Cravino and Vogel (2013): "Importing Skill Biased Technology", AEJ: Macroeconomics Raveh and Reshef (2016): "Capital Imports Composition, Complementarities, and the Skill Premium in Developing Countries", Journal of Development Economics 4. Special consideration for developing countries Goldberg and Pavcnik (2003): "The response of the informal sector to trade liberalization", Journal of Development Economics Attanasio, Goldberg and Pavcnik (2004): "Trade reforms and wage inequality in Colombia", Journal of Development Economics Goldberg and Pavcnik (2005): "Trade wages and the political economy of trade protection", Journal of International Economics Zhu and Trefler (2005): Trade and inequality in developing countries: a general equilibrium analysis, Journal of International Economics

7 5. Foreign direct investment and offshoring Feenstra and Hanson (1997): "Foreign direct investment and relative wages: Evidence from Mexico s maquiladoras", Journal of International Economics Grossman and Rosi Hansberg (2008): "Trading Tasks: A Simple Theory of Offshoring", The American Economic Review Hummels, Munch, and Xiang (2016): Offshoring and Labor Markets, NBER Working Paper No Trade induced technological change Thoenig and Verdier (2003): "A Theory of Defensive Skill Biased Innovation and Globalization", The American Economic Review Yeaple (2005): "A simple model of firm heterogeneity, international trade, and wages", Journal of International Economics Verhoogen (2008): "Trade, Quality Upgrading, and Wage Inequality in the Mexican Manufacturing Sector", Quarterly Journal of Economics Bloom, Draca and van Reenen (2015): "Trade Induced Technical Change? The Impact of Chinese Imports on Innovation, IT and Productivity", Review of Economic Studies 7. Individual effects and sorting Egger and Kreickemeier (2009): "Firm Heterogeneity and the Labor Market Effects of Trade Liberalization", International Economic Review Amiti and Davis (2011): "Trade, Firms, and Wages: Theory and Evidence", Review of Economic Studies Helpman, Itskhoki and Redding (2010): "Inequality and unemployment in the global economy", Econometrica Costinot and Vogel (2010): Matching and Inequality in the World Economy, Journal of Political Economy Sampson (2014): Selection into Trade and Wage Inequality, American Economic Journal: Microeconomics 8. Local labor market effects Autor, Dorn and Hanson (2013): The China Syndrome: Local Labor Effects of Import Competition in the United States, The American Economic Review Autor, Dorn and Hanson (2014): Untangling Trade and Technology: Evidence from Local Labor Markets, The Economic Journal

8 TRADE Trade policy I Mathieu Parenti OBJECTIVES This course takes place on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday New proposed trade agreements like the EU Canada Comprehensive Economic Trade Agreement (CETA) or the Transatlantic Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) go beyond traditional liberalization efforts. Their main goals are to dismantle non tariff barriers and to facilitate cross border investments. This course starts with a review of the theoretical rationales for trade agreements and then discusses recent developments in the political economy of trade policy. We will then see how quantitative trade models can be used to evaluate the impact of an economic dis integration shock such as Brexit. The last part of the course investigates how tax and trade policies interact when multinational firms are engaged in profit shifting activities. COURSE STRUCTURE & REFERENCES 1. Theories of trade agreements under perfect and imperfect competition Bagwell, K., Staiger, R.W., An economic theory of GATT. American Economic Review Dixit, A.K., Strategic aspects of trade policy. In: T.F. Bewley (Ed.), Advances in Economic Theory: Fifth World Congress. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Grossman, G. The purpose of trade agreements. (2016) Handbook of Commercial Policy, edited by Bagwell and Staiger. Ossa, R (2011). A new trade theory of GATT/WTO negotiations 2. Trade policy quantified: structural and reduced form approaches with an application to Brexit Costinot, A. and Rodriguez Clare. (2014) Trade theory with numbers: Quantifying the consequences of globalization, Handbook of International Economics, edited by Gopinath,, Helpman and Rogoff Dhingra, S. H Huang G Ottaviano, J Pessoa, T Sampson, J Van Reenen (2018) The costs and benefit of leaving the EU, Economic Policy Head and Mayer (2014) Gravity equations: workhorse, toolkit and cookbook. 3. Firm level lobbying: the demand for protection and market access Blanga Gubbay, M., Conconi P. & Parenti, M. Globalization for sale, mimeo Bombardini, M. (2008) Firm heterogeneity and lobby participation, Journal of International Economics Grossman, G. M., Helpman, E., Protection for sale. American Economic Review Rodrik, D. (2018). What Do Trade Agreements Really Do? Journal of Economic Perspectives 4. Multinational firms and tax avoidance through profit shifting Davies, Ronald B., Julien Martin, Mathieu Parenti, and Farid Toubal (2018) Knocking on Tax Haven s Door: Multinational Firms and Transfer Pricing, The Review of Economics and Statistics. Egger Strecker Zoller Rydzek (2018) Estimating Bargaining related Tax Advantages of Multinational Firms, mimeo Li Liu, Tim Schmidt Eisenlohr, and Dongxian Guo International Transfer Pricing and Tax Avoidance: Evidence from Linked Trade Tax Statistics in the UK, mimeo Tørsløv, LS Wier, G Zucman, 2018 Missing profits of nations, mimeo

9 TRADE Trade Policy II Anne Célia Disdier OBJECTIVES This course takes place on Monday and Tuesday Recent years have seen three important changes in the trade policy. First, tariffs on goods have been largely bound and reduced to an average below 5%, whereas non tariff measures such as technical, sanitary, and regulatory measures at the border have spread. Second, economic integration is increasingly conducted at the bilateral or regional level through modern preferential trade agreements, while the multilateral scene has become too heterogeneous to converge easily on ambitious and mutually beneficial liberalization agendas. This course reviews recent advancements in the quantification of trade policy effects though the estimation of structural gravity models. It also explores the motives and trade effects of modern Preferential Trade Agreements. Finally, it investigates the non tariff measures and their trade, price and welfare effects. COURSE STRUCTURE 1. Quantification of trade policy effects Anderson, J. E. and E. van Wincoop (2003), Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle, American Economic Review, 93(1): Head, K. and T. Mayer (2014), Gravity Equations: Workhorse, Toolkit, and Cookbook, In: Gopinath G., Helpman, E and K. Rogoff (Eds.), Handbook of International Economics, vol. 4. Elsevier, Oxford, pp Helpman, E., M. Melitz, and Y. Rubinstein (2008), "Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," Quarterly Journal of Economics, 123: Yotov, Y., R. Piermartini, J A. Monteiro, and M. Larch (2016), An Advanced Guide to Trade Policy Analysis: The Structural Gravity Model, Co published by UN Conference on Trade and Development and WTO. 2. Preferential trade agreements Baier, S. and J. Bergstrand (2007), "Do Free Trade Agreements Actually Increase Members' International Trade?," Journal of International Economics, 71(1): Baier, S., Y. Yotov, and T. Zylkin (2016), "On the Widely Differing Effects of Free Trade Agreements: Lessons from Twenty Years of Trade Integration," CESIFO Working Paper Limao, N. (2016), "Preferential Trade Agreements," In: Bagweel, K. and R. Staiger (Eds.), Handbook of Commercial Policy, vol. 1B, Elsevier, Amsterdam, North Holland, pp Mattoo, A., A. Mulabdic, and M. Ruta (2017), "Trade Creation and Trade Diversion in Deep Agreements," World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Non tariff measures Cadot, O. and J. Gourdon (2016), Non tariff measures, preferential trade agreements, and prices: new evidence," Review of World Economics, 152(2): Chen, M.X. and A. Mattoo (2008), Regionalism in standards: good or bad for trade?, Canadian Journal of Economics, 41(3): Fontagné, L., G. Orefice, N. Rocha and R. Piermartini (2015), "Product Standards and Margins of Trade: firm level evidence, " Journal of International Economlics, 97(1): Kee, H.L., A. Nicita, and M. Olarreaga (2009), Estimating Trade Restrictiveness Indices, The Economic Journal, 119: Van Tongeren, F., J.C. Beghin, and S. Marette (2009), A Cost Benefit Framework for the Assessment of Non Tariff Measures in Agro Food Trade, OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Working Papers, No. 21, OECD Publishing.

10 HOW TO APPLY TO THE Presentation Our one week programmes are entirely conducted in English. You are expected to participate in all of the courses; you can follow only one programme per week, but can apply to two consecutive ones. At the end of the programme, you will receive a certificate. Each programme is equivalent to 3 ECTS (European Credit Transfer System). Students interested in this transfer should contact their universities. First week from June 17 to June 21 Second week from June 24 to June 28 CLIMATE CHANGE INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION MACROECO. MICROECO. BOUNDED RATIONALITY DEVELOPMENT EXPERIMENTAL ECONOMICS HEALTH & HAPPINESS MIGRATION ECONOMICS Participant profiles and selection The PSE Summer School is aimed at professionals, researchers, and graduate students in Economics and Finance (Masters and PhD). Undergraduate students in Economics will be considered if their profile is exceptionally strong. Candidates are invited to submit their applications on a rolling basis at application.eu, including: A current Curriculum Vitae in pdf format A photo of yourself [not used per se in the application process] A copy of your most advanced degree For Students: proof of status A short motivation text Optional Letter(s) of recommendation Fees Fees cover lunches and social events, as well as the welcome and farewell cocktails. They do not cover accommodation, transport or any other services. Early bird discount: A 10% discount applies for participants who pay before March 10, For sponsored candidates : purchase orders are not considered payment. Group discount: A 10% discount applies when a single employer or institution enrolls at least five (5) members in the Summer School. The discount is offered to participants regardless of the course she or he selects and is applied upon the signing of a training agreement between the employer and PSE. TRADE Cancellation policy Should PSE be forced to cancel a program for exceptional reasons (before March 31, 2019), we will either reimburse the total fees already paid for that program before its cancellation, or propose enrolment in another programme. Confirmed participants who wish to cancel must do so in writing by ; your tuition fees will be partially refunded as described online. Any questions? summer school@ps .eu

11 A SUMMER ON THE JOURDAN CAMPUS The 2019 Edition will take place at PSE in the 14th arrondissement of Paris. A new m² building houses around 1500 researchers, students, and administrative teams of the PSE and the Ecole normale supérieure. The 1-hectare Jourdan campus offers ideal conditions: numerous classrooms and working spaces, a 300 places amphitheater, a library with more than books, a student home More (online) about the Jourdan Campus google maps, gallery, video

12 SUMMER SCHOOL 2019, PARIS