PARTIES AND ELECTIONS IN CANADA: A NEW ERA

Transcription

1 PARTIES AND ELECTIONS IN CANADA: A NEW ERA Workshop held at Memorial University October 22-23, 2010

2 PARTIES AND ELECTIONS IN CANADA: A NEW ERA October 22-23, 2010 Beatrice Watts Board Room, INCO Innovation Centre Memorial University DAY ONE 9:00 AM PICK UP AT HOMETEL 9:30-10:30 Breakfast and Welcome Amanda Bittner and Royce Koop 10:30-12:00 Session One: Canadian Parties and Elections in Comparative Perspective Ken Carty. Political Parties as Brokerage Organizations Steven Wolinetz. Parties in Campaign Mode: Placing Canadian, American, and British Parties in Comparative Context Richard Johnston. Situating the Canadian Case 12:00-1:15 Lunch (in Conference Room) 1:15-2:15 Session Two: Intra-Party Politics André Blais and William Cross. Removing Party Leaders: Canada in Comparative Perspective Georgia Kernell. A Tale of Two Constituencies: How Party Decentralization and Preference Voting Force (Some) Candidates to Balance between Party Members and the General Electorate 2:15-3:15 Session Three: Party Finance in Canada Harold Jansen and Lisa Lambert. Too Little Too Soon: State Funding and Electoral District Associations in the Green Party of Canada Lisa Young and Harold Jansen. State Funding and Canada s Political Parties Since :15-3:30 Break 3:30-5:00 Session Four: MPs, Parties, and Constituencies Munroe Eagles. Constituency and Personal Determinants of MPs Positions on Social Conservatism Issues in the 37th and 38th Parliaments Royce Koop. MPs and Local Representation: The Roles of Constituency Associations Peter Loewen and Michael Mackenzie. Electoral History, Representational Approaches, and Electoral Consequences 7:00 Dinner. Bianca s (171 Water Street, downtown:

3 PARTIES AND ELECTIONS IN CANADA: A NEW ERA October 22-23, 2010 Beatrice Watts Board Room, INCO Innovation Centre Memorial University DAY TWO 8:15 AM PICK UP AT HOMETEL 8:30-9:00 Breakfast 9:00-10:00 Session Five: Bases of Party Support Amanda Bittner. Political Information in Canadian Elections: Are smart voters different? Elizabeth Goodyear-Grant. Women Voters, Candidates, and Legislators: A gender perspective on Recent Party and Electoral Politics 10:00-11:00 Session Six: The Prime Minister and Cabinet Chris Kam and Indridi H. Indridason. The Enemy of My Enemy is My Enemy: Non-Confidence Motions and Inter-Opposition Conflict Matthew Kerby and Gary Sneddon. Fluke or Folly: Party Leader Error and Ministerial Election Defeat 11-11:15 Break 11:15-12:15 Session Seven: Partisanship in Canada Scott Matthews. When Partisans are Attacked: On Motivated Reasoning in the Party System Allison Harell. Revisiting the Ethnic Vote : Liberal Allegiance and Vote Choice Among Racialized Minorities in Canada 12:15-1:15 Lunch 1:15-2:45 Session Eight: Local Campaigns and the Riding Context Anthony Sayers. City Ministers: The Local Politics of Cabinet Selection William Cross and Lisa Young. The Recruitment of Candidates in Canadian Elections: Local and National Influences Russell Williams and Greg Clarke. Parties, Politics, and Redistribution: The Constitutional and Practical Challenges of Politicized Apportionment 2:45-4:15 Session Nine: New Approaches to Studying Canadian Election Campaigns Kelly Blidook and Matthew Byrne. The Effects of Constantly Campaigning upon the Canadian Parliament Alex Marland and Jennifer Lees-Marshment. Incremental Party Marketing in Canada Blake Andrew, Patrick Fournier, and Stuart Soroka. The Canadian Party System: Trends in Election Campaign Reporting, :15-4:30 Break 4:30-5:30 Discussion and Capstone Session Amanda Bittner and Royce Koop 7:00 Dinner. Gypsy Tea Room (315 Water Street, downtown:

4 PARTIES AND ELECTIONS IN CANADA: A NEW ERA October 22-23, 2010 Beatrice Watts Board Room, INCO Innovation Centre Memorial University LIST OF ABSTRACTS Blake Andrew, Patrick Fournier, and Stuart Soroka. The Canadian Party System: Trends in Elec>on Campaign Repor>ng, Over the past two decades there have been important changes in the Canadian poli6cal system. The results of electoral contests, the organiza6on of party campaigns, the media coverage of elec6ons, and indeed the party system itself have been changing. Some of these shi?s appear be systema6c, long- term trends. For example, campaigns (and par6es) seem to be increasingly personalized and regionalized. Other changes appear to be less structured, like the varying fortunes of poli6cal par6es at the ballot box across elec6ons. In this paper we seek to confirm the existence and shed some light on these changes, systema6c and otherwise. But instead of observing them through party organiza6ons, or voter behaviour, we explore trends in the way news media has reported Canadian poli6cs over the past two decades. Specifically, we analyze all elec6on- related news content published in five major Canadian newspapers over the course of six campaigns between1993 and We examine growing aqen6on to party leaders, differing coverage of par6es and leaders across regions, and trends in the coverage of issues. Our contribu6on is in part methodological: we explore the poten6al for content- analy6c data in analyses of long- term (or at least medium- term) changes in party and electoral systems. But our results also shed light on the shi?ing Canadian party landscape, campaigns and elec6ons. Amanda BiIner. Poli>cal Informa>on in Canadian Elec>ons: Are smart voters different? Past research has demonstrated that not all voters are the same, and that in par6cular, that there is a substan6al difference in the behaviour of voters who are more knowledgeable or sophis6cated about poli6cs and those who are less sophis6cated. This paper will examine the role of poli6cal knowledge in Canada, in an effort to beqer understand the determinants of vote choice in Canadian elec6ons over 6me. Do voters who don t know about the par6es and leaders make different types of decisions than those who are comfortable sta6ng how they feel about them? This paper will assess the extent to which changes in the party system over the last two decades in par6cular, the emergence of new par6es and new leaders have influenced the nature of voters decision making processes. Canada s poli6cal landscape has seen substan6al change in recent years, and this paper assesses the extent to which voters have been able to cope with those changes. André Blais and William Cross. Removing Party Leaders: Canada in Compara>ve Perspec>ve. Canada's poli6cal par6es have regularly revised their method of leadership selec6on to reflect changing democra6c norms, organiza6onal needs and electoral impera6ves. In this paper we propose to iden6fy, examine and explain these changes. Our focus is on the leadership 'selectorate' in the post 1965 period. Through an examina6on of party records, elite interviews, academic literature and media reports, we iden6fy each substan6ve change in the defini6on of the selectorate and examine the mo6va6on for these changes. We observe a gradual expansion of the selectorate from elite dominated conven6ons to more inclusive and representa6ve ones to selec6on via a vote of party members. The movement, however, has not always been in one direc6on and has not been consistent across par6es, thus we explain what internal party dynamics interact with more generalizable ones to influence party behaviour in this regard. Kelly Blidook and MaIhew Byrne. The Effects of Constantly Campaigning upon the Canadian Parliament. Recently in Canada, poli6cal par6es appear to have been in a state of constant campaigning during periods of minority government. However, past compara6ve research is less clear on whether we should expect greater coopera6on or greater conflict in minority parliaments. This paper examines how the difference between majority and minority affects behaviour in parliament. It seeks to determine if the constant threat of imminent elec6ons has a significant effect on what poli6cal par6es do in parliament. In this case, we first systema6cally examine whether adversarial par6sanship is increasingly evident in a parliamentary venue where it is otherwise uncommon (Standing Order 31 Member Statements). We then examine whether such a change is evident across par6es or only for specific par6es.

5 LIST OF ABSTRACTS, CONTINUED Ken Carty. Poli>cal Par>es as Brokerage Organiza>ons. Studies of Canadian poli6cal par6es have long described them as prac6cing brokerage poli6cs. However the no6on of brokerage poli6cs confounds normal understandings of poli6cal par6es' contribu6ons to democra6c compe66on. Models of 'brokerage par6es' do not appear in the compara6ve literature and such par6es are not part of coherent theore6cal frameworks designed to explain the dynamics of working party systems. In this paper I seek to explore the consequences of prac6cing brokerage poli6cs for party organiza6on and how such par6es differ from the superficially similar 'catch- all' or 'electoral- professional' par6es of other regular compe66ve democracies. In doing so we lay the theore6cal founda6on for understanding the dis6nc6ve character of Canadian party organiza6on. William Cross and Lisa Young. The recruitment of candidates in Canadian elec>ons: local and na>onal influences. Local candidates are of central importance to the conduct of Canadian elec6ons. They organize and animate local campaigns "on the ground", solicit contribu6ons and mobilize support for themselves and their par6es. In this paper, analyzing data from a survey of candidates in the 2008 federal elec6on, we look at the ways in which candidates come to run for office. While some 'push' their way in, others are 'pulled' or recruited by local and na6onal party officials. We examine the contextual and other factors that affect the ways in which candidates come to run for office, with a view to understanding more thoroughly the paqerns of poli6cal recruitment in Canada. Elizabeth Goodyear- Grant: Women Voters, Candidates, and Legislators: A Gender Perspec>ve on Recent Party and Electoral Poli>cs Without making 2004 seem like a break from the past a transi6on into some fundamentally altered poli6cal era the last three electoral cycles have witnessed important developments in Canadian electoral and party poli6cs. The focus in this paper is on women voters, candidates, and legislators and how these have been impacted by two par6cular forces brought about since the 2004 federal elec6on: first, the return to power of a conserva6ve party a?er 13 years out of government and, second, the intensifica6on of party compe66on both during and outside elec6ons due to an uninterrupted trifecta of minority governments. Cri6cally, these two forces Conserva6ve governments and intensified poli6cal compe66on have produced what Dobrowolsky calls the invisibaliza6on and instrumentaliza6on of women (2008). This is a dual process in which women and gender equality are nudged to the margins of poli6cal discourse at the same 6me that women are used strategically for instrumental gains. Dobrowolsky uses a policy and ci6zenship perspec6ve, while this paper focuses on the representa6onal consequences of invisibaliza6on and instrumentaliza6on for women as voters, candidates, and legislators. Alison Harell. Revisi>ng the Ethnic Vote : Liberal Allegiance and Vote Choice among Racialized Minori>es in Canada. While there has been a long- standing allegiance between ethnic minori6es and the Liberal Party of Canada (Blais 2005), the reasons behind this rela6onship remain elusive. Drawing on a pooled dataset of Canadian Elec6ons Studies since 1993, this paper examines the sources of liberal support among racialized minori6es. Three hypotheses are tested which focus on the role of ideology, issue salience and ethnic mobiliza6on. It is expected that racialized minori6es will iden6ty more with the Liberal party due to ideological considera6ons related to the status of minori6es in Canada, and that the salience of these considera6ons will be greater than for whites. Addi6onally, the role that ethnic concentra6on and ethnic social networks play in promo6ng a Liberal vote will be explored. The implica6ons of these findings will be discussed in light of increasing ethnic and racial diversity in Canada and the changing electoral fortunes of the Liberals in recent elec6ons. Harold Jansen and Lisa Lambert. Too LiIle Too Soon: State Funding and Electoral District Associa>ons in the Green Party of Canada. Recent decades have witnessed an increase in state subsidies to poli6cal par6es. This trend has led to a debate among both academics and policy- makers about the effects of state subven6ons on poli6cal compe66on and party organiza6on. One of the central cri6cisms of subsidies is that they lead par6es to centralize and professionalize their opera6ons, leading par6es to neglect the development of party membership and mass organiza6on and par6cipa6on. In this paper, we assess this argument through a case study of the Green Party of Canada (GPC) a?er In that elec6on, the GPC qualified for the generous state subsidies established on January 1, 2004 when Bill C- 24 came into effect. The Canadian Greens are an emerging poli6cal party that is heavily dependent on state funding to finance their opera6ons. As such, they are an ideal case study to examine the extent to which these predic6ons of the effects of state subsidies are jus6fied. A?er reviewing the literature on the effects of state subven6ons on poli6cal par6es, we will examine the rise of the Green Party and the way it has responded to the incen6ves to professionalize and centralize their opera6ons. Finally, the paper will assess whether the party s strategy has been electorally successfully.

6 LIST OF ABSTRACTS, CONTINUED Richard Johnston. Situa>ng the Canadian Case. The Canadian party system is alleged to be unique in several ways. If some of the claims do not hold water or must be highly qualified, many stand up to scru6ny and the ensemble of dis6nc6ve features is truly impressive. To make this argument, the paper engages in a systema6c, quan6ta6ve comparison of the Canadian system to its logical comparators, the consolidated party systems of the English- speaking world. In this light, the following features stand out: a conjunc6on of long- lived governments (since 1896, Liberal ones) with considerable electoral vola6lity; a peculiar paqern in that vola6lity; a more frac6onalized electorate and Parliament than is typical of Westminster systems, a frac6onaliza6on that is not easy to explain away; marked discon6nui6es between federal and provincial elec6ons within the same province: and social and issue founda6ons that seem archaic, more in need of historical explica6on than is the Westminster norm. Chris Kam and Indridi H. Indridason. The Enemy of My Enemy is My Enemy: Non- Confidence Mo>ons and Inter- Opposi>on Conflict Why do opposi6on par6es choose to move mo6ons of no- confidence when they know that these mo6ons are highly likely to fail? In this paper, we explore what kind of ra6onale may induce such behavior and argue that the incen6ve to field mo6ons of no- confidence may be less directed at unsea6ng the government than being driven by conflict of interest among the opposi6on par6es. In par6cular, mo6ons of no- confidence may be used to gauge other par6es' preparedness for elec6ons as well as forcing them to support policy proposals that diverge from the party's preferred policy plamorm. MaIhew Kerby and Gary Sneddon. The Electoral Consequences of Ministerial Exit in Canada: This research examines the electoral consequence of ministerial exit from the Canadian federal cabinet for the period Studies of ministerial careers typically examine the determinants of appointment, exit or dura6on. Rarely do they consider the consequence of such career shocks on electoral success or failure. The first objec6ve of this paper is to provide a topographic overview of electoral assent, decent or failure of ex ministers in the general elec6on that follows their cabinet exit. The second objec6ve is to iden6fy and test a number of condi6ons and variables which are hypothesized to impact the electoral success or failure of ex ministers. The data used to study this phenomenon consist of the popula6on of ex ministers and their electoral fortunes. Insights shed specific light on the Canadian case and provide insight for future research in other Westminster parliamentary democracies. Georgia Kernell. A Tale of Two Cons>tuencies: How Party Decentraliza>on and Preference Vo>ng Force (Some) Candidates to Balance between Party Members and the General Electorate. Poli6cians face an inherent tradeoff between responding to the interests of their par6es' core cons6tuents and appealing to poten6al new voters. Yet for some representa6ves, and par6es more generally, this tradeoff is especially severe. When candidates from the same party compete for their party's nomina6on (e.g. primaries) or for a seat in the general elec6on (e.g. open list propor6onal representa6on), their standing with party supporters has direct electoral consequences. I argue that candidates should adhere more closely to the preferences of their par6es' core cons6tuents in par6es or electoral systems that ins6tute intraparty compe66on. As a result, candidates in these systems should adopt subop6mal posi6ons, causing their par6es consequently to suffer in the general elec6on. To test the hypothesis, I draw on original data on par6es' procedures for nomina6ng parliamentary candidate. Decentralized candidate selec6on is shown to be associated with par6es adop6ng subop6mal posi6ons and losing votes. Royce Koop. MPs, Par>es, and Local Representa>on: The Roles of Cons>tuency Associa>ons The cadre- style local organiza6ons of Canada's na6onal Liberal and Conserva6ve par6es are defined by their seeming evanescence: their memberships spike in the lead- up to nomina6on and elec6on campaigns but drop off shortly therea?er. One result of this apparent transience is that poli6cal scien6sts have ignored the roles played by these local organiza6ons between elec6on campaigns. In this paper I argue that cons6tuency associa6ons play an important role between elec6ons by assis6ng MPs in their roles as representa6ves. Associa6ons do so by enhancing communica6on between MPs and different sectors both geographic and non- geographic within the ridings. I draw on 35 interviews with Canadian MPs to (1) demonstrate how cons6tuency associa6ons enhance MPs service/alloca6ve, policy, and symbolic responsiveness in the ridings by relaying informa6on between their communi6es and MPs and (2) illustrate the advantages of this an6quated method of communica6on for MPs.

7 LIST OF ABSTRACTS, CONTINUED Peter Loewen and Michael Mackenzie. Electoral History, Representa>onal Approaches, and Electoral Consequences. Scholars occasionally contend that local campaigns and the ac6on of siqng Members of Parliament have a marginal effect on their reelec6on rates, if at all. Despite this, we see some Members of Parliament exert great effort on local affairs, while others all but ignore their cons6tuencies and take on different representa6onal roles. We contend that the apparent absence of local effects is instead a heterogeneity of local effects, where some MPs cul6vate significant personal votes while others do not face such pressures. We further argue that whether MPs engage in significant local efforts is a consequence of their electoral history, par6cularly their early elec6ons. These ac6ons maqers for some voters, demonstra6ng that local campaigns systema6cally maqer for poli6cs. Alex Marland and Jennifer Lees- Marchment. Incremental party marke>ng in Canada. Plasser (2002) has classified poli6cal organiza6ons into two groups. Party- driven sellers emphasize the party due to its ins6tu6onal framework and cultural tradi6on, and place importance on the party organiza6on, party policies and candidates as party spokespersons. Message- driven marketers dismiss tradi6onal party- driven behaviour, and emphasize the candidate s posi6oning, targeted messages, external advice, and poli6cal marke6ng in general. In Canada the poli6cal par6es, with few excep6ons, have had a history of being party- driven sellers. Around 2005 the Conserva6ve party adopted a business- style marke6ng approach and became a message- driven marketer. Once they formed the government in 2006 the other par6es took no6ce and began considering the merits of doing so themselves. This paper argues that Canadian poli6cal par6es seeking to form the government are forever changed. Canadian poli6cal par6es have entered a new world where the party leadership, caucus and membership is presented with compelling reasons to respond to iden6fied target markets and to ignore the rest. Tom Flanagan has called his party s use of this technique incremental conserva6sm. Since it is also gradually being adopted by the opposi6on par6es it can more reasonably be considered incremental party marke6ng. ScoI MaIhews. When Par>sans Are AIacked: On Mo>vated Reasoning in the Party System This paper considers the impact of rhetorical "aqacks" - - that is, messages with strongly nega6ve evalua6ve implica6ons - - on Canadian par6sans. The theory of mo6vated reasoning implies that such aqacks will have quite different effects across par6san groups, levels of par6san affilia6on, and levels of poli6cal knowledge. Drawing on a small, peculiar subset of items that have been replicated across several itera6ons of the Canadian Elec6on Study, the analysis finds that only the strong- smart par0sans survive, i.e. only those individuals who combine affec6vely- intense par6sanship with poli6cal knowledge are in a good posi6on to resist persuasion by aqacks on the par6es with which they are iden6fied. Moreover, the findings indicate that "opposi6on par6sans" vary according to strength of party iden6fica6on and poli6cal knowledge - - in the extent to which par6san aqacks directed at other par6es lead to "bolstering" processes. Apart from its obvious bearing on the theory of mo6vated reasoning, the paper has implica6ons for the nature of party iden6fica6on of Canada and for party strategy. Anthony Sayers City Ministers: The Local Poli>cs of Cabinet Selec>on In 2006, Prime Minister Stephen Harper made two highly visible moves to include representa6on from major ci6es in his new cabinet. In appoin6ng Michael For6er he provided representa6on for Montreal, where the Conserva6ves had gained no seats in the House of Commons. In en6cing Liberal David Emerson to cross the floor and join the cabinet, he did the same for downtown Vancouver. Is this a new sensi6vity to ci6es? This paper will show that ci6es have long been over- represented in cabinet and suggests that if they are geqng a poor deal in terms of policy, under- representa6on is not the cause. The paper also finds dis6nc6ve paqerns in the city- ness of federal cabinets and discusses the implica6ons for federal policies. Russell Williams and Greg Clarke. Par>es, Poli>cs, and Redistribu>on: The Cons>tu>onal and Prac>cal Challenges of Poli>cized Appor>onment. The Harper Government's recent proposals for an ad hoc redistribu6on of representa6on in the House of Commons highlight the extent to which appor6onment, par6cularly the distribu6on of seats to provinces, has been "poli6cized" since the 1970s. Parliamentarians, responding to the concerns of jurisdic6ons with declining rela6ve popula6ons, the poli6cal sensi6vi6es of reducing the propor6on of representa6on granted to Quebec, and their own local par6san calcula6ons have resisted the trend towards more "automa6c" formulary systems of redistribu6on. This paper documents the system used to reconcile the apparently conflic6ng impera6ves of federalism and right to an "effec6ve" vote. It argues that without a systemic overhaul there is considerable poten6al for this system to not only affect the par6san outcome of elec6ons, but also to denude the meaning of the cons6tu6onally- protected right to an "effec6ve" vote.

8 LIST OF ABSTRACTS, CONTINUED Steven Wolinetz. Par>es in campaign mode: placing Canadian, American, and Bri>sh par>es in compara>ve context The paper explores reasons for the gap between studies of par6es and party systems and electoral studies by considering the ways in which we study poli6cal par6es. Concentra6ng primarily on par6es and how they are organized and interact with each other in pubic office to the detriment of par6es in campaign mode, the literature on par6es and party systems fails to consider how organize themselves to contest elec6ons. The paper aqempts to remedy this gap by examining how par6es in Canada, the United States and Britain organized themselves in recent elec6on campaigns Concentra6ng on the electoral face and par6es in campaign mode produces a different portrait of par6es and how they organize: At the local level, party organiza6ons and candidates muster whatever resources they can. At the na6onal level, campaign teams are constructed from central offices, leaders entourages, and campaign consultants, pollsters, and fundraisers. Although na6onal differences and differences among types of par6es persist, par6es in electoral or campaign mode look more like each other than par6es in central office. Lisa Young and Harold Jansen. State Funding and Canada s Poli>cal Par>es Since The most notable of the party financing reforms that took effect in 2004 added something new to the provision of public financing to Canada's poli6cal par6es: a $1.75 per vote per year allowance to be paid quarterly to qualifying poli6cal par6es. In the compara6ve party literature, the increased dependence of par6es on the state is associated with a decline in compe66on, an atrophying of the party system, and the straining of 6es between par6es and civil society. This is expressed most clearly in Katz and Mair's (1995) cartel model of poli6cal party compe66on. Furthermore, the extent to which par6es should depend on state financing has become a maqer of par6san controversy in Canada. The Conserva6ve government aqempted to strip away the quarterly allowance in late 2008, retrea6ng in the face of a poten6al coali6on government formed by the opposi6on par6es. There are indica6ons that the Conserva6ves are considering campaigning on a similar move in the next elec6on. The argument is that par6es should be primarily funded from private sources and that the public financing provisions are propping up par6es that would otherwise not be compe66ve. This paper will look first at the extent to which Canada's na6onal par6es are dependent on the state for their financial resources. Unlike many analyses of state dependence (e.g., Young, Sayers, and Jansen, 2006; Jansen and Young, 2011) that look only at the direct provision of state financing to par6es, this paper will also assess the extent to which the state indirectly supports par6es through the poli6cal contribu6ons tax credit. Second, this paper will assess the claims that the public financing provisions have affected the compe66ve posi6ons of par6es in Canada.

9 A NUMBER OF INDIVIDUALS AND ORGANIZATIONS WERE INSTRUMENTAL IN MAKING THIS EVENT HAPPEN. WE WOULD LIKE TO THANK THEM. Amanda Bittner and Royce Koop, Workshop Organizers. Xaiver Campbell & Shawn Kavanagh, Student Workshop Coordinators. Susan Piercey, Research Assistant & Rapporteur Helen Knapman and Juanita Lawrence, Administrative Assistants (Political Science) MEMORIAL UNIVERSITY Office of the President, Vice President (Academic) and Vice President (Research), and Faculty of Arts

10 PARTIES AND ELECTIONS IN CANADA: A NEW ERA Workshop held at Memorial University St. John s, NL October 22-23, 2010