Comparative Opportunities: The Evolving Study of Political Behavior of in Eastern Europe

Transcription

1 Comparative Opportunities: The Evolving Study of Political Behavior of in Eastern Europe Joshua A. Tucker Professor of Politics and (by courtesy) Russian and Slavic Studies New York Paper prepared for presentation at a workshop on Whither Eastern Europe? Changing Political Science Perspectives on the Region, University of Florida, January 9-11, Very preliminary first draft!

2 Abstract: As the theoretical rational (and funding opportunities!) for considering Eastern Europe as a distinct region diminish as we move farther and farther away from the momentous events of 1989, the value of including East-Central European countries in comparative studies has only increased. In my paper, I outline how comparative studies of political behavior involving East- Central European countries have evolved in my own research from comparative studies including Russia along with four East European countries (Tucker 2001, 2006), to more broadly based comparative studies including multiple East European countries and former Soviet Republics (Tucker, Pacek and Berinsky 2002; Pacek, Pop-Eleches, and Tucker 2009; Herzog and Tucker 2010), to studies where behavior is analyzed in both East European countries and more established democracies (Brader and Tucker 2012; Brader, Tucker, and Duell 2013; Klasñja and Tucker 2013; Powell and Tucker 2014, Brader, Tucker and Therriault 2014), and finally to large cross-national studies focused on questions related to post-communist politics (namely, the legacy of communism on post-communist attitudes and behavior) but relying on the comparative analysis of survey data from countries around the world (Pop-Eleches and Tucker 2011, 2012, 2013a,b, 2014). In a way, the research has come full circle, from studies of East European political behavior to better understand East European political behavior, to studies including East European countries to better understand general questions of political behavior not specific to post-communist countries, to now the most extensive comparative studies that are, however, designed once again to better understand East European political attitudes and behavior.

3 In 1994, I was riding a train from Bulgaria to Greece, having just completed my first visits to Germany, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Romania, and Bulgaria. As we passed the Bulgarian-Greek border, I made a joke to one of my travelling companions about how excited I was to be returning to the normal West after our weeks in the East where everything would now work as we expected. Ten minutes after we started our journey on the Greek side of the border, the train stopped, the engine took off, and we were left for 6 hours sitting in the train with no conductor, no engine, and no explanation of what was happening. One of the things we realized at that point was that in crossing the border we hadn t actually gone West we had gone South. Truth be told, geographically speaking Greece was actually a lot farther East then much of Eastern Europe, and the trains certainly did not run on time. ****** I. Introduction In retrospect, the term Eastern Europe is kind of confusing. As the above anecdote reveals, it has never really been a purely geographic term. The Czech Republic and Hungary are basically west of Finland and Greece, but the former are East European countries and the latter aren t. Moreover, Moldova, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania all pretty much due south of Finland north of Romania and Bulgaria were not part of Eastern Europe as long as they were part of the Soviet Union. Nor does the term identify some sort of imperial legacy: we can find countries that were part of the Hapsburg, Prussian, Ottoman and Russian empires both inside and outside of Eastern Europe. Nor is it some sort of religious demarcation: there are Eastern European countries where the largest religious groups are Eastern Orthodox, Catholics, Protestants, Muslims and even atheists. Truthfully, the only way we can makes sense of the term Eastern Europe in the manner in which it has been used for the past 50 years is through the lens of Soviet communism. Simply put, Eastern Europe as an ideal type classification is best identified as those countries outside the Soviet Union that in the aftermath of World War II came under the rule of Soviet-style communist regimes. If we want to try to put a legal definition on it, we d probably be forced to 1

4 go through something like the Warsaw Pact. But of course even these types of definitions are nebulous. Did Yugoslavia cease to be part of Eastern Europe when Tito took the country down the path of non-aligned status? What about Ceaușescu s Romania or Hoxha s Albania? And can we legitimately speak of Eastern Europe today in any meaningful sense without Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania? Perhaps the conference should actually be called Wither Moldova? Furthermore, as ongoing events in the newly named Euromaidan continue to reinforce, such debates are unlikely to be resolved anytime soon. Nevertheless, in academic research the boundaries of Eastern Europe whatever exactly that might have been were historically rather rigid. To give a personal example, when I was graduate student at Harvard in the mid to late 1990s, I was fortunate to be surrounded by either as classmates or as visiting pre-docs or post-docs a huge cohort of colleagues working on what we have come to call post-communist politics. Yet even at that time, almost every dissertation seemed be focused either on research from exclusively East European countries (Benoit, Botcheva, Desai, Grzymała-Busse, Wittenberg), exclusively focused on Russia (Albats, Andrews, Frye, Giuliano, Gorenburg, Herrerra, McFarquhar, Treisman), or exclusively focused on ex-soviet Republics (Darden, Hale, Jones-Loung, McMann). 1 Nor was this sort of pattern simply limited to Ph.D. dissertations. In a 2002 Annual Review of Political Science article (Tucker 2002), I coded every article written about elections and voting in a post-communist country in 16 journals 8 general interest political science journals and 8 post-communist area studies journals published between Of the 101 articles on elections that I found across these 16 journals, a grand total of 3 (Ishiyama 1997, 1 Exceptions included Oxana Shevel s dissertation on national identity in Russia, Ukraine, Poland and the Czech Republic and my work on economic voting in Russia, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, which I will discuss below. NOTE FOR FLORIDA CONFERENCE: if you were writing a dissertation in the 1990s on postcommunist politics and would like to be added to this list in any of the categories, just and let me know! joshua.tucker@nyu.edu. 2

5 Moraski & Loewenberg 1999, Moser 1999) compared elections from the former Soviet Union (not including the Baltics) and Eastern Europe. With these points in mind, here s the argument I would like to put forward in this paper. Regardless of whether Eastern Europe ever was a legitimate ideal type for scholarly inquiry, the boundary between communist regimes that were and were not formally part of the Soviet Union was a real one indeed in the academic community. As time passes, it will become harder and harder to a priori justify this classification without reference to a specific theoretical argument for which the classification is appropriate. Put another way, there will be studies now where it is more appropriate to group/compare Poland with Spain, not Albania. This will present a challenge to all of us who study Eastern Europe for the myriad of reasons appearing daily on the wonderful Why We Study Eastern Europe Facebook page 2 established by Michael Bernhard, as we will no longer simply be able to justify comparing certain countries and not others because they are part of Eastern Europe. However, at the same time this also represents an opportunity to those of us who enjoy studying politics in this region because it fundamentally increases the opportunity for all sorts of new comparative work which can (a) teach us new things about these societies in which we are interested (b) provide new audiences for our research all the while (c) allowing our work to speak to new debates in new ways. Since a full-fledged literature review is far beyond the scope of a 5000 word article, I will instead follow the direction of the conference/special issue s organizers, and simply illustrate the possibilities that I have discovered in my own work. By necessity, this will focus the article primarily on the topic of the comparative study of East European political behavior; it will also entail leaving out many, many studies that could have been used to make similar points equally 2 3

6 well. I hope readers will find the approach more a useful parsimonious organizing principal than self-indulgent narcissism, but I leave that for others to decide. In my own work, I began by first breaking the Eastern Europe vs. former Soviet Union boundary, although I did this gradually in a series of stages, beginning first by including Russia in a comparison with several East European countries (Tucker 2001, 2006), then the Baltics in a comparison with more East European countries (Tucker, Pacek and Berinsky 2002; Herzog and Tucker 2010), and then finally pan-post-communist studies including all post-communist countries that met certain thresholds for free and fair elections (Pacek, Pop-Eleches, and Tucker 2009; Powell and Tucker 2014). The next step was to write articles that explicitly compared behavior in a small number of East European countries with individual non-post communist countries (Brader and Tucker 2012; Brader, Tucker, and Duell 2013; Klasñja and Tucker 2013, Brader, Tucker and Therriault 2014). 3 The final and most recent step has been to embark on a large-scale comparative project with Grigore Pop-Eleches that has involved large-scale comparisons of political attitudes and behavior across countries including most East European countries (Pop-Eleches and Tucker 2011, 2012, 2013a,b, 2014). What is particularly intriguing about this last project arguably the final step one could take in constructing a comparative agenda including East European countries with other countries (hard to think of anything more comparative) is that the purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of communist era legacies on post-communist political behavior. So in an interesting twist, the most comparative work I ve embarked on that encompasses East European countries is explicitly designed to shed light on East European politics. 3 Although not exactly germane to a whither Eastern Europe conference, I will note that I also co-authored a Russian-Bolivian comparative piece on why people vote for ex-authoritarian leaders in free elections with my favorite title I ve ever been able to publish: Feeding the Hand that Bit You (Seligson and Tucker 2005). 4

7 In the remaining sections, I expand a bit on what I have done and learned in each of these three types of comparative analyses involving East European countries in studies that would not have been possible had we kept the old East European boundaries around our academic research. II. Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union As I mentioned previously, when I was in graduate school most of my colleagues were pursuing doctoral projects that continued to adhere to the Eastern Europe vs. Russia/former Soviet Union boundary. 4 I instead ended up writing a dissertation that examined the effect of economic conditions on election results in Russia, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia, which eventually became a Cambridge University Press book (Tucker 2006). I wish in retrospect that I had a better story for how I somehow became convinced that I had to help break down what was going to become an archaic boundary in the future, but the truth of the matter is that I do not remember giving the matter much thought at all. Before I started my prospectus, I had been working for two years as a research assistant for Joel Hellman on work related to what would become his 1998 World Politics article Winners Take All: The politics of Partial Reform in Postcommunist Transitions, which was of course explicitly comparative across the more political competitive East European countries as opposed to the less competitive former Soviet republics. Moreover, as I would later document in my 2002 Annual Review of Political Science article, Russian elections were by far the most popular subject for academic research on elections in post-communist countries (Tucker 2002, see Figure 2, p.278). 5 Next most popular, however, were Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic, to which I added Slovakia (#9) because the first 4 Indeed, if memory serves me right, Oxana Shevel and I had to get special permission for our general exam to have a sub-field specialization exam in post-communist politics instead of East European politics or politics of the (now former) Soviet Union, both of which were approved fields. 5 Yes Virginia, Russia did have interesting and competitive elections in the 1990s. 5

8 Czech elections in my study were actually Czechoslovakian elections. These were the countries people were studying; these were the elections getting attention from the scholars I was reading when I was a graduate student. So I did what we did in those pre-all-the-data-is-available-onthe-internet days, and headed out to those countries to scope out data availability. 6 While there, I started conducting interviews, learning about the countries in detail, establishing contacts at the state statistical offices, building up my data collection, etc. As it turned out, with a bit of digging I could get the kind of data I needed (congruence between electoral districts and administrative units by which economic and demographic data were reported) in all five of these countries, so at that point it seemed completely arbitrary to exclude either Russia or the four East European cases simply because most previous studies would not have crossed these boundaries. As far as I was concerned, all five countries had seen communism collapse, had parties associated with post-communist reform, and had communist successor parties (these types of parties would play an important role in one set of my theoretical arguments that focused on parties relationship to the transition away from communism), so I could not come up with any compelling reason to start dropping cases. 7 Interestingly, though, every time I gave a talk based on this research someone in the audience would ask the Russia vs. Eastern Europe question. As a result, I knew that I would need to address the question in the book (i.e., whether my results were systematically different in Russia vs. the four East European cases). I had a framework for incorporating these types of hypotheses (i.e., ones that suggested there might be different support for my primary hypotheses in some 6 In addition to the five countries included in the book, I also visited statistical offices in Slovenia and Ukraine. In the case of Ukraine, I could not come up with enough data of the type I needed to conduct my analyses. Slovenia might have made it into the book, but I never got the chance to assess data suitability because and this is completely true the box of statistical yearbooks that I shipped home from Ljubljana never arrived in the US. Who might want to steal a cardboard box full of statistical data from Slovenia most of which was in Slovenian remains a mystery to me to this day. 7 On the contrary, I did not want to be accused of cherry-picking which elections to include in my study to match a particular set of results, which also augured against ex-post excluding Russia. 6

9 cases than others) that I called Conditional Economic Voting Hypotheses (Tucker 2006, see chapter 2). The problem was still that I had no good theoretical rational for why I thought economic voting patterns should be different in Russia as opposed to Poland or Hungary (the too many time zones hypothesis?), so I actually ended up calling this section intuitive conditional hypotheses. The next step I took in bridging the old Eastern European vs. former Soviet Union boundary was to include the three ex-soviet Baltic republics (Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia) with an otherwise East European set of comparative cases. This was hardly exceptional, but I mention it for two reasons. The first is that I had a clear theoretical rational for doing so based on the topic of my analysis: the determinants of attitudes towards EU membership among citizens of the ten post-communist counties that would go on to join the EU in 2004 and 2007 (Tucker, Pacek and Berinsky 2002; Herzog and Tucker 2010). Given that research agenda, there was no conceivable reason to exclude Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia from the analysis, and indeed Estonia as an über-market reforming country (especially vis a vis low tax rates) gave us the opportunity to test an extra hypothesis in the latter piece. The second reason I mention these sets of comparative studies is because it does call into question yet again how we actually draw the boundary of Eastern Europe. Former Soviet vs. non-former Soviet is the most parsimonious line we can draw, but then that leaves the Baltics out of Eastern Europe. We can amend this definition to say pre-wwii Soviet republics, but if we are being honest that seems pretty arbitrary; do we really think that the effect of being part of the USSR came from events in the 20s and 30s but not in the late 40s, 50s, 60s, 70s, and 80s? Especially for those of us studying post-communist political behavior, most post-communist citizens of the Baltic states were not even born in the 20s or 30s (or were very young children). 7

10 This again points to the usefulness of having a theoretical rational for our explicit or implicit set of comparative cases (e.g., ex-communist countries being considered for EU membership in the first waves of expansion) rather than just falling back on Eastern European countries, which could seem to exclude or include the Baltics arbitrarily. Of course, the ultimate breakdown of the former Soviet Union / Eastern Europe boundary in academic research is simply to move to post-communist countries as one s unit of analysis. This is the approach I have taken in two co-authored pieces on aggregate level voting patterns, one focused on turnout (Pacek, Pop-Eleches, and Tucker 2009) and one on electoral volatility (Powell and Tucker 2014). In both cases, we simply set a threshold for minimally competitive elections based on an external source in both cases Freedom House rankings of Free or Partially Free at the time of the election and then included all of the former Soviet republics and East European post-communist countries that met the definition. In the turnout piece, we split the countries into sub-categories, but it was in relation to their likelihood of joining the EU, not whether they were from Eastern Europe or the former Soviet Union (Pacek, Pop-Eleches, and Tucker 2009, Figure 2, p.481). Although again not the purpose of this conference/volume, it is worth pausing just a moment to note that the post-communist category is not without its issues either. In particular, there were of course ruling communist parties in countries in the Caribbean and Latin America, Africa, and Asia. None of these, however, suffered the kind of rupture with communism that we saw in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, although that s not to say they couldn t in the future (Cuba? North Korea?). In the case of others, it is hard to say exactly where in the post communist spectrum they are currently (read: China). Throw in the preeminence of the Soviet Union in dictating policy among most of Warsaw Pact countries of Eastern Europe 8

11 throughout the latter half of the twentieth century (although there was of course variation here, and especially so in Yugoslavia), and the line between the European/Eurasian post-communist countries and those in the rest of the world seems justifiable for the most part. 8 III. Eastern Europe and non-post-communist comparisons Perhaps even more exciting than breaking down the boundary between Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union has been the opportunity to situate East European countries in comparative studies with countries outside of the ex-communist world. The excitement here is generated by the chance to show that the countries in which we are interested can shed light on theoretical topics of interest to the broader political science community, even for people with no inherent interest in Eastern Europe. In a day and age where funding and hiring opportunities are growing scarcer, 9 being able to argue that an East Europeanist hire is someone who can engage with the rest of an academic department is an advantage something that should not be taken lightly. I have used this approach comparing post-communist countries with non postcommunist countries in four different parts of my research agenda, the last of which I will address separately in the next section. The first example is work I touched on briefly in the previous section related to electoral volatility (Powell and Tucker 2014). Here, we were interested in contrasting the determinants of electoral volatility in new democracies and old democracies. 10 Eastern and Western Europe seemed a perfect set of cases that would allow us to 8 The exception here is Mongolia, which probably should be in most post-communist analyses but usually is not Although it should be noted that after many rounds of revisions, the final version of the paper relegates the West European data more to the role of a robustness test of our methods than a straight up comparison. 9

12 hold a great deal of political and cultural history constant while varying length of democratic experience. A second example is part of my work with Ted Brader on the determinants of variation in the strength of partisanship. In Brader and Tucker (2012a), we wanted to explicitly examine the effect of age of democracy and stability of party systems on the strength of partisan cuing effects (i.e., how much more likely an individual is to support a policy proposal if she is told her party proposed it). We developed a series of experiments to test these cuing effects in multiparty systems (Brader and Tucker 2012b), and then wanted to run them in an older democracy with a stable party system, a new democracy with a relatively stable party system, and a new democracy with an unstable party system. We were doing this in the mid-2000s, so Great Britain, Hungary, and Poland, respectively, fit our needs perfectly. This is a great example of study that could not have been conducted only in Western Europe or Eastern Europe, but was possible through comparative analysis. In a follow up study (Brader, Tucker, and Duell 2013), we wanted to see whether partisan cues varied based on party-level characteristics (e.g., whether the party was in the opposition or not and the clarity of the party s ideological position). We again used our experiments from Great Britain, Hungary, and Poland, but here are the fact that we had countries from the East and West played a different role. We of course could have run such an analysis using only East European or West European countries, but by including cases from both categories we provided additional evidence of the robustness of our results (i.e., the finding was not peculiar to either countries with new party systems or old party systems) and, ideally, were able to appeal to a larger audience of people interested in both West and East European politics. 10

13 Combining an East European country with an established democracy also helped us in a more methodologically oriented article designed to introduce a new way to measure sociodemographic cross-pressures faced by individuals (Brader, Tucker and Therriault 2014). The method was primarily developed using data from the United States, which is of course a fairly atypical two-party system. So we wanted to demonstrate that method would work in a party system with many parties. What better data to use than the 2001 Polish National Election Study, which gave us a viable six-party system to study? In a context where East European cases can be seamlessly included in comparative studies with countries outside of the region, this approach allowed us to simultaneously demonstrate the robustness of our methodological approach and show readers who might never have been interested in East European politics that data from Poland could prove useful in their own research agenda. A third area in which I have recently applied an East vs. West European comparative research design is in the study of the effect of corruption on voting behavior (Klasñja and Tucker 2013). In this paper, we wanted to examine how the effect of corruption on voting behavior varied across a high corruption and low corruption country. Again, this seemed to be a perfect context in which to design a study using countries from Western Europe and Eastern Europe. We ended up running our experiment in Sweden tied for 3 rd on Transparency International s most recent Corruption Perceptions Index of most clean countries and Moldova, which was tied for 102 nd on the same list. 11 The results were illuminating. In Sweden, our low corruption country, voters punished the mayor for corruption regardless of the state of the economy. In Moldova, however, voters punished the mayor for corruption only when the economy was also bad. When economic conditions had improved, however, voters appeared less concerned about corruption. While it is of course possible we could have drawn the same 11 There were a total of 177 countries on the list: 11

14 conclusions from a high and low corruption country within Eastern Europe, the comparison of Western and Eastern Europe allowed us to get a much wider range of variation in corruption: the most clean Eastern European country in 2013 was Poland at 40 th. IV. Large scale comparative analysis Just as the ultimate extension of the break down of the Eastern Europe vs former Soviet Union boundary is comparative studies including all of the post-communist countries, the ultimate extension of the break down of the boundary between studying post-communist countries and countries elsewhere in the world are large scale comparative analyses without any geographic boundaries. This is exactly the empirical strategy that Grigore Pop-Eleches and I are employing in our current project on the study of communist legacies on post-communist political behavior and attitudes (Pop-Eleches and Tucker 2011, 2012, 2013a,b, 2014). Here s the basic logic. We want to understand the extent to which the legacy of communism has affected political behavior and attitudes in post-communist countries. The starting ground for such a study, therefore, needs to be examining the difference between attitudes and behavior in post-communist countries and in other countries. If we cannot document such a difference, then there is nothing for a communist legacy to explain. So we have been relying on large cross-national survey projects such as the World Values Survey, which allows us to look at attitudes and behavior in over 90 countries, including most of the post-communist countries. We can then systematically document how attitudes or behavior differ in post-communist countries. In turn, we can then attempt to measure the extent to which communist legacies can account for these differences using new methodological approaches we have developed. 12

15 In the context of this article, this approach is important for two reasons. First, it illustrates another opportunity for using the countries we study and know well in comparative analysis. But perhaps much more importantly, it demonstrates how embedding data from East European countries in large-n comparative analyses does not have to involve abandoning postcommunist specific research questions to the study of topics developed in other corners of the political science universe, thus somehow implying that our questions are less important than generalist questions. Instead, it shows that we can use large-scale comparative analysis to answer questions that are crucially important to understanding the politics of Eastern Europe. So it is an opportunity to both simultaneously deepen our understanding of our region of interest, while at the same doing so in a way that engages with research from the rest of the world. V. Conclusions I want to close this essay by noting how in a sense, the comparative opportunities that I have identified for scholars of East European politics come full circle to where we started. Originally, we studied Eastern Europe because we want to learn about Eastern Europe. Other countries even including Russia and the other republics that made up the former Soviet Union were seen as being too different to offer real analytical leverage for understanding the politics of Eastern Europe. Today, it is much harder to justify why a study of politics should be limited to Eastern Europe (or should only include cases drawn from the set of Eastern European cases) than it was pre Studies of new members of the EU can be justified. Studies of new democracies can be justified. Studies of competitive authoritarian regimes can be justified. Studies of countries with post-communist economic reforms can be justified. Studies of countries with colored 13

16 revolutions or in which formally federalist regimes have split into their constituent parts can be justified. The list goes on and on, but none of these perfectly overlap with what we have commonly referred to as Eastern Europe. Some of these categories exclude some East European countries; others include non-east European post-communist countries; and others include countries we would not even call post-communist. So this is not to say we can no longer conduct research on only East European countries, but merely that we need to be sure to find theoretically justified reason for including (or selecting from) the particular countries we study that goes beyond simply the fact that they are East European. At the same time, the challenge of justifying why we study Eastern Europe has also yielded the opportunity to include East European countries in comparative studies with countries outside of Eastern Europe. These types of studies can give us the opportunity to bring more data to bear on our hypotheses, to provide additional robustness test of our findings, to show the broader relevance of our questions and finding, and to engage the discipline more broadly in general research questions such as the nature of partisanship or voting. But and here s where the full circle comes in it can also give us the tools to answer new questions about politics and political behavior in Eastern Europe itself. As a collection of scholars who remain interested in Eastern Europe for Eastern Europe s sake, it would be foolish to avoid either the challenge posed or the opportunities presented by the developments of the past 25 years. 14

17 Works Cited Brader, Ted and Joshua A. Tucker Follow the Leader: Party Cues, Policy Opinion, and the Power of Partisanship in Three Multiparty Systems, Comparative Politics. 44(4): Brader, Ted, Joshua A. Tucker and Dominik Duell Which Parties Can Lead Opinion? Experimental Evidence on Partisan Cue Taking in Multiparty Democracies, with. Comparative Political Studies. 46: Brader, Ted, Joshua A. Tucker, and Andrew Therriault Cross Pressure Scores: A New Measure for an Old Concept, with Ted Brader and, Political Behavior. DOI /s , forthcoming. Herzog, Alexander and Joshua A. Tucker The Dynamics of Dissent: The Winners-Losers Gap in Attitudes Towards EU Membership in Post-Communist Countries European Political Science Review, 2(2): Ishiyama J The sickle or the rose? Previous regime types and the evolution of theexcommunist parties in post-communist politics, Comparative Political Studies 30(3): Klašnja, Marko and Joshua A. Tucker The Economy, Corruption, and the Vote: Evidence from Experiments in Sweden and Moldova, with, Electoral Studies. 32(3): Moraski Bryan and G Loewenberg The effect of legal thresholds on the revival of former communist parties in East-Central Europe. The Journal of Politics. 61(1): Moser Robert Electoral systems and the number of parties in postcommunist states. World Politics. 51(3): Pacek, Alexander, Grigore Pop-Eleches, and Joshua A. Tucker Disenchanted or Discerning? Voter Turnout in Post-Communist Countries The Journal of Politics, 71(2): Pop-Eleches, Grigore, and Joshua A. Tucker Communism's Shadow: Postcommunist Legacies, Values, and Behavior, Comparative Politics, 43 (4): Pop-Eleches, Grigore, and Joshua A. Tucker Post-Communist Legacies and Political Behavior and Attitudes. Demokratizatsiya: The Journal of Post-Soviet Democratization. 20(2): Pop-Eleches, Grigore, and Joshua A. Tucker Associated with the Past? Communist Legacies and Civic Participation in Post-Communist Countries, with, East European Politics and Society. 27(1): Pop-Eleches, Grigore, and Joshua A. Tucker Communism's Shadow START!!! 15

18 Pop-Eleches, Grigore, and Joshua A. Tucker Communist Socialization and Post- Communist Economic and Political Attitudes, with Grigore Pop-Eleches, Electoral Studies. doi: forthcoming Powell, Eleanor and Joshua A. Tucker Revisiting Electoral Volatility in Post-Communist Countries: New Data, New Results, and New Approaches, with Eleanor Powell, British Journal of Political Science. 44(1): Seligson, Amber, and Joshua A. Tucker Feeding the Hand that Bit You: Voting for Ex- Authoritarian Rulers in Russia and Bolivia, Demokratizatsiya: The Journal of Post-Soviet Democratization, 13(1): Tucker, Joshua A Economic Conditions and the Vote for Incumbent Parties in Russia, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic from , Post Soviet Affairs, 17(4): Tucker, Joshua A The First Decade of Post-Communist Elections and Voting: What Have We Studied, and How Have We Studied It? Annual Review of Political Science, 5: Tucker, Joshua A Tucker, Joshua A Regional Economic Voting: Russia, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic, , New York: Cambridge University Press. Tucker, Joshua A. Alexander Pacek and Adam Berinsky, "Transitional Winners and Losers: Attitudes Toward EU Membership in Post-Communist Countries", American Journal of Political Science, 46(3):