UNEMPLOYMENT/UNDER EMPLOYMENT REPORT Q4 2015

Transcription

1 UNEMPLOYMENT/UNDER EMPLOYMENT REPORT Q4 20 MARCH 20

2 BRIEF METHODOLOGY In computing the unemployment rate, the total population is divided into labour force (currently active) and non labour force (not currently active). The labour force population covers all persons aged to 64 years who are willing and able to work regardless of whether they have a job or not. The definition of unemployment therefore covers persons (aged 64) who during the reference period were currently available for work, actively seeking for work but were without work. A person is regarded as employed if he/she is engaged in the production of goods and services, thereby contributing to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in a legitimate manner, which is a component of the national accounts and receives any form or amount of compensation for that activity. The category of persons considered not in the labour force include those not between 64(economic active population) as well as those within the economically active population i.e 64, who are unable to work, not actively seeking for work or choose not to work and/or are not available for work, which are the economically inactive. Examples of these are voluntary full time housewives, underage children and below, adults above 65, full time students, those in active military service, physically challenged and incapacitated persons whose incapacitation prevents them from working. Growth in the labour force therefore fluctuates and depends on the decisions by constituents of the economically activate population on whether to work or not which varies across different cultures, religion, as well as various academic, economic and family considerations. For example, a housewife might decide to take up employment to supplement the family income due to changes in the husband s salary or due to added family needs, or a person might decide to take some time off work to either study for Master s program or to recover from ill health. Any of these can cause fluctuations in the economically active and labour force population at any given time.

3 Figure 1: Basic Building Blocks of the Labour Force Population Economically Active Population (Age 64) Employed Population Unemployed Population Labour Force Population Willing and able to work and actively looking for work Underemployed Population Not in Labour Force Population Not willing to work or not able to work or not actively seeking work or less than years or older than 64 years. Unemployed Population Unemployment Rate = 100 x Labour Force Population There is no universal standard definition of unemployment as various countries adopt definitions to suit their local priorities. Virtually all countries however use the International Labour Organization (ILO) definition, or a variant of it to compute unemployment. The ILO definition covers persons aged 64 who during the reference period (which is usually the week preceding the time the survey is administered) were available for work, actively seeking work, but were unable to find work. The Nigerian National Bureau of Statistics like most countries in the world uses a variant of the ILO definition such that the unemployment is the proportion of those in the labour force (not in the entire economic active population, nor the entire Nigerian population) who were actively looking for work but could not find work for at least 20 hours during the reference period to the total currently active (labour force) population. Accordingly, you are unemployed if you did absolutely nothing at all or did something but not for up to 20 hours in a week. Underemployment however occurs if you work less than full time hours, which is 40 hours, but work at least 20 hours on average a week and /or if you work full time but are engaged in an activity that underutilizes your skills, time and educational qualifications. Consequently, rural farmers only farming seasonally will be considered underemployed if they only work on their farms during the planting and harvests period and do nothing in between. If farmers are however working in dry and wet seasons as is increasenly

4 becoming the case, they will then be considered to be involved in full time employment. This applies to drivers, cook, bankers, teachers etc who in most case work well over 40 hours and hence are considered full time employed as their working hours and skills meet the adopted methodology. It is important to note that the international definition of unemployment, underemployment or employment is not a function of the quantity/suitability of wages earned nor it is a function of job satisfaction. Rather employment, underemployment and unemployment are treated as a function of a person s involvement or otherwise in economic activity even if that activity is performed solely to make ends meet and not for satisfaction or enjoyment. The suitability of wages or job fulfilment is covered under other indices such as the living standard, poverty rate or happiness index, but not in determining whether one is employed, unemployed or underemployed, which is a function of economic engagement.

5 Highlights of Unemployment and Underemployment in Q4 20 The economically active population or working age population (persons within ages and 64) increased from million in Q3 20 to million in Q4 20, this represents a 0.68% increase over the previous quarter and a 3.2% increase when compared to Q4 20. In Q4 20, the labour force population (i.e those within the working age population willing, able and actively looking for work) increased to million from 75.94million in Q3 20, representing an increase of 1.34% in the labour force during the quarter. This means 1.02 million persons in the economically active population entered the labour force, that is individuals that were able, willing and actively looking for work. This increase was the highest quarterly jump in the labour force population during the year 20. However, within the reference period, the total number of person in full time employment (did any form of work for at least 40hours) decreased by 710,693 or 1.29% when compared to the previous quarter, and but increased by 607,5 or 1.% when compared to Q4 of 20. With an economically active or working age population of million and labour force population of 76.9million, this means 28.1million persons within the economically active or working age population decided not to work for one reason or the other in Q4, hence were not part of the labour force and cannot be considered unemployed. The number of underemployed in the labour force (those working but doing menial jobs not commensurate with their qualifications or those not engaged in fulltime work and merely working for few hours) increased by 1.21 million or 9.%, resulting in an increase in the underemployment rate to 18.7% (.42million persons) in Q4 20, from 17.4% (.2mn) in Q3 20 and 18.3% (.5mn) in Q2 20. During the same period, the number of unemployed in the labour force, increased by 518,102 persons, resulting in an increase in the national unemployment rate to 10.4% in Q4 20 from 9.9% in Q3 20 and from 8.2% in Q2 20. In view of this, there were a total of million persons in the Nigerian labour force in Q4 20, that were either unemployed or underemployed compared to compared to 20.7 million in Q3 20 and 19.6 million in Q2 20.

6 Unemployment and Underemployment by Age Group As has been the case, unemployment and underemployment was highest for persons in the labour force between the ages of 24 and 25 34, which represents the youth population in the labour force. The unemployment rate was highest for those within the ages of 24 (19.0% in Q4 20, up from 17.8% in Q3 20,.9% in Q2 20 and.7% in Q1 20), while the underemployment rate for those within the ages 24 increased to 34.5% in Q4 20 from 31.8% in Q3, 33.8% in Q2 and 30.6% in Q1 20. For the age group, the unemployment rate also increased to 11.4% in Q4 from 10.8% in Q3 20 from 8.9% in Q2 20 and 8.2% in Q1 20, while underemployment rose to 19.9% in Q4 from 18.5% in Q3 20, 19.5% in Q2 and 17.7% in Q1 20. Accordingly, 53.5% of Nigerians in the labour force (not entire population), aged 24 were either unemployed or underemployed in Q4 20 compared to 49.6% in Q3 20, 48.7% in Q2 and 44.3% in Q1 20. Of persons aged between 25 and 34, 31.3% of that group were either unemployed or underemployed in Q4 20 compared to 29.3% in Q3, 28.4% and 25.9% in Q2 and Q1 20 respectively. Consequently, out of a total youth labour force population of 36.7million (representing 47.7% of total labour force in Nigeria of 76.9mn), a total of.8million of them were either unemployed or underemployed in Q4 20. (Important to note that there is a technical distinction between not working and unemployed. A youth may not be working but may not necessarily be unemployed. A youth not working will only be termed unemployed if he is willing and able to work and actively looking for work within the review period. It is also important to note distinction between unemployed and underemployed. You are unemployed if you do nothing at all and underemployed if you still manage to do something for some money for at least 20 hours a week but is menial and not fully engaging relative to your skills, time and qualifications) Unemployment and Underemployment by Gender As was the case in previous quarters, unemployment and underemployment was higher for women than men in Q4 20. While.3% of women in the labour force (those between 65 willing, able and actively working or searching for work) were unemployed in Q4 20, another 22.0% of women in the labour force were underemployed in Q4 20. On the other hand, 8.8% of males were unemployed in Q4 20, while another.7% of males in the labour force were underemployed during the same period.

7 Urban and Rural Unemployment and Underemployment Underemployment continues to be predominant in rural areas, 22.6% of rural dwellers were underemployed compared to 9.7% urban of dwellers. Given that the nature of rural jobs is largely in agriculture, which is seasonal in nature, unemployment is more of a concern in urban areas with.8% unemployment in urban area compared to 9.5% in the rural areas, as the preference is more for formal white collar jobs, which are located mostly in urban centres. Country Comparisons of Unemployment Unemployment is not just a Nigerian problem. The International Labour Organisation (ILO) on whose recommendation most countries in the world unemployment methodology is based including Nigeria, states that 201 million people globally are unemployed and this may rise to 219 million by With 8.0 million Nigerians technically unemployed (not including the remaining.4mn underemployed), this means 4% of the worlds unemployed are Nigerians. If we add the number of underemployed in Nigeria (though other countries and the ILO methodology do not add this to unemployment and keep these numbers separate like we now do in Nigeria) in the interest of seeking full time and gainful employment for Nigerians, then Nigeria will represent about percent of global unemployment. The ILO has previously forecast a global unemployment rate of 5.9% this year and next, compared with 5.5% before the global financial crisis in 2007, implying that Nigeria s Q4 unemployment rate of 10.4% (minus an additional 18.7% underemployment) is higher than the global average. The highest unemployment rate in the world as of latest reported in q4 20 is recorded in Djibouti (54%), Congo(46%), Bosnia and Herzegovinian(42.9%), Haiti (40.6%), Afghanistan (40%), Kenya (40%), Kosovo(35%), while the lowest are found in Qatar (0.2%), Cambodia (0.3%), Belarus(0.5%), Thailand(0.8%), Benin (1.0%), Madagascar (1.2%), Laos (1.40%) and Guinea Bissau(1.80%). Nigeria with an unemployment rate of 10.4% in Q4 20 has a better unemployment rate than reported in 66 countries but worse than 111 countries, including 23 African countries which have unemployment rates lower than 10.4%. If we add underemployment to unemployment and get a rate of 29.2% for Q4 20, then Nigeria has the 7 th highest unemployment rate in the world (Important to note other countries don t add underemployment) with only Kenya Congo and Djibouti with worse rates in Africa.

8 Table 1: Labour Force Statistics Q4, 20 LABOUR FORCE STATISTICS, 20 Q4 LABOUR FORCE POPULATION Work 40 Hrs+ Full-Time Employed Work Hrs Work 1-19 Hrs Under-employed Unemployed Unemployed Work 0 Hr (Did nothing) Total Unemployed UNEMPLOYMENT RATES OLD Nigeria NEW Nigeria International Under Employment Rate All Groups 76,957,923 54,506,107,4,7 4,8,872 3,877,230 8,036, Educational Group Never Attended 23,509,432,3,7 4,900,707 1,410,871 1,083,737 2,494, Below primary 4, ,479 43,586 32,368 37,424 69, Primary,379,174 11,990,058 2,110, , ,638 1,1, Secondary 27,360,445 18,901,460 5,448,919 1,566,683 1,5,191 3,082, Post Secondary 10,292,425 7,3,394 1,911, , ,240 1,272, Agegroup -24,894,509 7,372,856 5,0,405 1,486,105 1,336,840 2,822, ,825,730,056,943 4,347,225 1,249,572 1,236,385 2,485, ,944,270,073,728 2,338, , ,476 1,298, ,564,594 10,9,548 1,587, , , , ,728,819 6,088,032 1,001, , , , Gender Male 40,002,550 29,994,7 6,272,795 1,809,267 1,693,100 3,502, Female 36,955,373 24,511,950 8,2,919 2,349,605 2,184,0 4,533, Place of Residence Urban 22,965,538 17,801,4 2,234, ,821 2,252,257 2,929, Rural 53,992,385 36,704,973,180,964 3,482,051 1,624,973 5,107,

9 Table 2 Labour Force Statistics Results, Q3, 20 LABOUR FORCE STATISTICS, 20 Q3 LABOUR FORCE POPULATION Work 40 Hrs+ Full-Time Employed Work Hrs Work 1-19 Hrs Work 0 Hr (Did nothing) Under-employed Unemployed Unemployed Total Unemployed UNEMPLOYMENT RATES OLD Nigeria NEW Nigeria International Under Employment Rate All Groups 75,940,402 55,2,796,205,504 3,850,872 3,667,230 7,518, Educational Group Never Attended 23,185,051,364,339 4,489,289 1,306,383 1,025,039 2,331, Below primary 4, ,488 39,927 29,971 35,397 65, Primary,3,507,6,393 1,933, , ,252 1,043, Secondary 27,024,1 19,7,910 4,991,478 1,450,656 1,434,070 2,884, Post Secondary 10,190,945 7,246,665 1,751,2 498, ,472 1,193, Agegroup -24,818,332 7,468,989 4,708,864 1,376,046 1,264,434 2,640, ,561,988,253,266 3,982,272 1,7,031 1,9,419 2,326, ,626,982,270,270 2,2, , ,707 1,2, ,331,948 11,056,860 1,454, , , , ,601,2 6,7,4 917, , ,851 5, Gender Male 39,408,104 30,385,242 5,746,189 1,675,275 1,601,397 3,276, Female 36,532,298 24,831,554 7,459,3 2,175,597 2,065,833 4,241, Place of Residence Urban 22,837,345 18,033,238 2,047,1 626,696 2,0,270 2,756, Rural 53,103,057 37,183,558 11,8,363 3,224,176 1,536,960 4,761,

10 Unemployment Rate Figure 2: Unemployment Rate Trend (2010 Q4, 20) Unemployment Trend Q ILO NEW OLD Reference Period Figure 3: Unemployment and Under employment (2010 Q4, 20) Unemployment Rate Time-related underemployment Rate

11 Figure 4: Unemployment Rate by Gender (2010 Q4, 20) 20-Q4 20-Q3 20-Q2 20-Q1 20-Q4 20-Q3 20-Q2 20-Q Female Male Table 3: Unemployment Rate from Selected Countries Countries Unemployment Rate Last Previous Highest Lowest Frequency (%) Djibouti 54.0 Dec Yearly 10 Congo 46.1 Dec Yearly Bosnia and 42.9 Dec Monthly Herzegovina Haiti 40.6 Dec Yearly 10 Afghanistan 40.0 Dec Yearly Kenya 40.0 Dec Yearly 11 Kosovo 35.3 Dec Yearly Yemen 29.0 Dec Yearly 11 Swaziland 28.5 Dec Yearly 10 Namibia 28.1 Dec Yearly Palestine 27.4 Sep Quarterly Republic of the 26.6 Dec Yearly Congo 10 Angola 26.0 Dec Yearly Macedonia 25.5 Sep Quarterly Lesotho 25.3 Dec Yearly 08 South Africa 24.5 Dec Quarterly

12 Greece 24.0 Dec- Equatorial Guinea 22.3 Dec- 09 Gambia 22.0 Dec- 10 Guyana 21.0 Dec- 11 Spain 20.9 Dec- Botswana 20.0 Dec- Libya 19.5 Dec- 11 Sudan 19.5 Dec- Croatia 18.5 Jan- Serbia 17.9 Dec- Montenegro 17.8 Jan- Albania 17.7 Dec- Mozambique 17.0 Dec- 07 Ethiopia.8 Dec- Armenia.6 Sep- Iraq.4 Dec- Gabon.0 Dec- 10 Cape Verde.8 Dec- Bahamas.7 Dec- Tunisia.4 Dec- Cyprus.3 Jan- Oman.0 Dec- 11 Syria.9 Dec- Eritrea.5 Dec- 84 Dominican Republic.0 Sep- New Caledonia.8 Dec- 09 Jordan.6 Dec- Sao Tome and.6 Dec- Principe Senegal.4 Dec- Zambia.3 Dec- Jamaica.1 Sep Monthly Yearly Yearly Yearly Quarterly Yearly Yearly Yearly Monthly Quarterly Monthly Quarterly Yearly Yearly Quarterly Yearly Yearly Yearly Yearly Quarterly Monthly Yearly Yearly Yearly Semesterly Yearly Quarterly Yearly Yearly Yearly Quarterly

13 Slovenia.9 Jan- Mauritania.9 Dec- Egypt.8 Dec- Georgia.4 Dec- Portugal.2 Dec- Puerto Rico.2 Dec- South Sudan.0 Dec- 08 Barbados 11.9 Jun- Colombia 11.9 Jan- Maldives 11.6 Dec- Italy 11.5 Jan- Zimbabwe 11.3 Dec- Belize 11.1 Dec- East Timor 11.0 Dec- Turkey 10.8 Dec- Iran 10.7 Dec- Uzbekistan 10.7 Dec- Algeria 10.6 Sep- Turkmenistan 10.6 Dec- Austria 10.4 Feb- Slovakia 10.4 Jan- Nigeria * 10.4 Dec- Euro Area 10.3 Jan- France 10.3 Dec- Poland 10.3 Jan- Tanzania 10.3 Dec- Bulgaria 10.2 Jan- Latvia 9.8 Dec- Morocco 9.5 Dec- Lithuania 9.4 Jan Monthly Yearly Quarterly Yearly Quarterly Monthly Yearly Quarterly Monthly Yearly Monthly Yearly Yearly Yearly Monthly Quarterly Yearly Quarterly Yearly Monthly Monthly Quarterly Monthly Quarterly Monthly Yearly Monthly Quarterly Quarterly Monthly

14 Ukraine 9.4 Sep- Finland 9.3 Jan- Costa Rica 9.2 Sep- European Union 8.9 Jan- Suriname 8.9 Dec- Ireland 8.8 Feb- Mali 8.2 Dec- Belgium 7.9 Jan- Fiji 7.9 Dec- Chad 7.8 Dec- Burundi 7.7 Dec- Uruguay 7.7 Jan- Brazil 7.6 Jan- Central African 7.6 Dec- Republic Sweden 7.6 Feb- Bolivia 7.4 Dec- Mauritius 7.4 Sep- Canada 7.3 Feb- Comoros 7.0 Dec- El Salvador 7.0 Dec- Brunei 6.9 Dec- Peru 6.9 Feb- Togo 6.9 Dec- Nicaragua 6.8 Dec- Burkina Faso 6.6 Dec- Malawi 6.6 Dec- Luxembourg 6.5 Jan- Netherlands 6.5 Feb- Romania 6.5 Jan- Estonia 6.4 Dec- Lebanon 6.4 Dec Quarterly Monthly Quarterly Monthly Yearly Monthly Yearly Monthly Yearly Yearly Yearly Monthly Monthly Yearly Monthly Yearly Quarterly Monthly Yearly Yearly Yearly Monthly Yearly Yearly Yearly Yearly Monthly Monthly Monthly Quarterly Yearly

15 Czech Republic 6.3 Feb- Mongolia 6.3 Sep- Paraguay 6.3 Sep- Germany 6.2 Feb- Hungary 6.2 Jan- Indonesia 6.2 Sep- Pakistan 6.0 Dec- Venezuela 6.0 Dec- Argentina 5.9 Sep- Australia 5.8 Feb- Chile 5.8 Jan- Philippines 5.8 Mar- Russia 5.8 Jan- Saudi Arabia 5.7 Jun- Cayman Islands 5.6 Dec- Ivory Coast 5.3 Dec- Malta 5.3 Sep- New Zealand 5.3 Dec- Ghana 5.2 Dec- Israel 5.1 Jan- Kazakhstan 5.1 Feb- United Kingdom 5.1 Jan- Azerbaijan 5.0 Dec- Sri Lanka 5.0 Sep- India 4.9 Dec- United States 4.9 Feb- Seychelles 4.7 Dec- Norway 4.5 Dec- Denmark 4.4 Jan- Bangladesh 4.3 Dec- Honduras 4.3 Dec Monthly Quarterly Quarterly Monthly Monthly Quarterly Quarterly Monthly Quarterly Monthly Monthly Quarterly Monthly Quarterly Yearly Yearly Quarterly Quarterly Yearly Monthly Monthly Monthly Yearly Quarterly Yearly Monthly Yearly Monthly Monthly Yearly Yearly

16 Ecuador 4.3 Nov- Mexico 4.2 Jan- Moldova 4.2 Dec- United Arab 4.2 Dec- Emirates North Korea 4.1 Dec- South Korea 4.1 Feb- China 4.1 Dec- Myanmar 4.0 Dec- Cameroon 4.0 Dec- Taiwan 3.9 Jan- Guinea 3.8 Dec- Liberia 3.8 Dec- Uganda 3.8 Dec- Bahrain 3.7 Dec- Switzerland 3.7 Feb- Kuwait 3.5 Dec- Rwanda 3.4 Dec- Hong Kong 3.3 Feb- Malaysia 3.3 Dec- Sierra Leone 3.3 Dec- Japan 3.2 Jan- Trinidad and Tobago 3.2 Jun- Guatemala 2.9 Jun- Cuba 2.7 Dec- Nepal 2.7 Dec- Bhutan 2.6 Dec- Iceland 2.5 Jan- Panama 2.5 Dec- Papua New Guinea 2.5 Dec- Liechtenstein 2.4 Dec- Vietnam 2.3 Dec Quarterly Monthly Quarterly Yearly Yearly Monthly Quarterly Yearly Yearly Monthly Yearly Yearly Yearly Monthly Monthly Yearly Yearly Monthly Monthly Yearly Monthly Quarterly Quarterly Yearly Yearly Yearly Monthly Yearly Yearly Yearly Quarterly

17 Niger 2.3 Dec- 08 Kyrgyzstan 2.2 Nov- Tajikistan 2.2 Dec- Macau 1.9 Jan- Singapore 1.9 Dec- Guinea Bissau 1.8 Dec- 10 Laos 1.4 Dec- Madagascar 1.2 Dec- Benin 1.0 Dec- Thailand 0.9 Jan- Belarus 0.5 Dec- Cambodia 0.3 Dec- Qatar 0.2 Dec- Source: NBS and Trading Economies Yearly Monthly Monthly Monthly Quarterly Yearly Yearly Yearly Yearly Monthly Yearly Yearly Yearly *In 20 NBS revised the methodology for unemployment. The lowest and highet values reflect this methodology review and are since 2010.