Canada & Alberta Essential Skills Challenge

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1 Caada & Alberta Essetial Skills Challege Craig Alexader Seior Vice-Presidet ad Chief Ecoomist The Coferece Board of Caada September 2017 cofereceboard.ca

2 Who we are: Caada s foremost idepedet, ot-forprofit applied research orgaizatio Our missio: Dedicated to buildig a better future for Caadias by makig our ecoomy ad society more dyamic ad competitive Our work: Empowers Caadias ad decisio makers with key isights ad kowledge i three key areas: Ecoomic aalysis ad forecastig Idustrial strategy ad public policy Orgaizatioal performace cofereceboard.ca

3 Caadia Ecoomy Reboudig From Commodity Shock Caada real GDP, per cet chage f 18f Sources: Statistics Caada; The Coferece Board of Caada. 3

4 Alberta s Ecoomic Recovery Uderway Real GDP growth per cet chage f 18f 19f Sources: Bureau of Ecoomic Aalysis The Coferece Board of Caada. 4

5 Alberta Labour Markets Tighteig per cet 9.0 Uemploymet Rate Natural Rate Sources: Statistics Caada; The Coferece Board of Caada. 5

6 Labour Markets are Beig Trasformed Globalizatio Techical Chage Leadig to Shifts i Labour Demad Deidustrializatio Declie i uioizatio Icrease i high skill jobs, decrease i middle skill jobs Agig Demographics Urbaizatio Climate Chage 6

7 Alberta s Employmet Gais 2007 to 2017 level chage i 000 s by idustry Primay Sector Maufacturig Costructio Health, Edu, Public Admi Busiess Services Sources: Statistics Caada; The Coferece Board of Caada. 7

8 Alberta s Employmet Gais 2007 to 2017 level chage i 000 s by teure Full-time Part-time Self-employed Sources: Statistics Caada; The Coferece Board of Caada. 8

9 Alberta s Agig Demography share of populatio aged 65 ad older Alberta Caada Sources: Statistics Caada; The Coferece Board of Caada. 9

10 Alberta s Labour Force Growth average aual compoud growth, per cet f f f Sources: Statistics Caada; The Coferece Board of Caada. 10

11 Caada Has A Productivity Problem Busiess Labour Productivity, Year-over-Year % Chage s 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s Source: Statistics Caada, Cetre for Study of Livig 11

12 Need High Skilled Workers, but May Caadias Have Iadequate Literacy SHARE OF POPULATION WITH BELOW DESIRED LITERACY AND NUMERACY Per cet of populatio Literacy 54.7 Numeracy Source: The Programme for the Iteratioal Assessmet of Adult Competecies,

13 Literacy is Not a Biary Outcome Literacy is the ability to idetify, uderstad, iterpret, create, commuicate ad compute, usig prited ad writte materials associated with varyig cotexts. Literacy ivolves a cotiuum of learig to eable a idividual to achieve his or her goals, to develop his or her kowledge ad potetial, ad to participate fully i the wider society. Uited Natios Educatioal, Scietific ad Cultural Orgaizatio (UNESCO) 13

14 Literacy & Educatio a Virtuous Circle Average score 325 AVERAGE SCORES BY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT 300 Literacy Numeracy Less tha High School High School PSE - below bachelor's PSE - bachelor's degree or higher Source: CMEC. 14

15 Literacy Ecourages Life Log Learig ADULT TRAINING BY LITERACY PROFICIENCY Participatio Rate i adult educatio ad traiig, % Below Level 1 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4/5 Source: The Programme for the Iteratioal Assessmet of Adult Competecies,

16 Literacy Improves Labour Market Outcomes PROFICIENCY BY LABOUR MARKET OUTCOMES 300 Average score Literacy 257 Numeracy Employed Uemployed Not i Labour Force Source: The Programme for the Iteratioal Assessmet of Adult Competecies,

17 Literacy Creates Better Job Opportuities PROFICIENCY BY OCCUPATION Average score Magerial ad other prof Service & support occupatios Trade, productio, maufacturig occupatios Maual & other service occupatios Literacy Numeracy Source: CMEC 17

18 All of Which Boosts Icome 50,000 Dollars PERSONAL INCOME BY PROSE LITERACY PROFICIENCY $42,239 40,000 $36,688 30,000 $29,001 20,000 $20,692 10,000 0 Poor (Level 1) Weak (Level 2) Acceptable (Level 3) Strog (Level 4/5) Source: Statistics Caada 18

19 Higher Literacy Leads to Better Socioecoomic Outcomes ODDS OF ADULTS SCORING AT/BELOW LEVEL 1 IN LITERACY REPORTING LOW LEVELS OF SELECTED OUTCOMES Odds ratio Fair or poor health Low levels of political efficacy No-participatio i voluteer activities Low levels of trust Source: The Programme for the Iteratioal Assessmet of Adult Competecies, Note: Odds ratios are adjusted for age, geder, educatioal attaimet ad immigrat ad laguage backgroud. Referece group is Level 4/5. 19

20 Ecoomic Beefits of Higher Literacy Raisig literacy scores of those with poor ad weak by oe level could create as may as 800,000 additioal jobs 3.5 years worth of aual job creatio It could also lower the atioal uemploymet rate by more tha 1 percetage poit A Statistics Caada survey foud that liftig literacy scores by 1% could lift labour productivity by 2.5% ad raise output per capita by 1.5% This suggests that a 1% icrease i literacy could boost atioal icome by $32 billio Raisig literacy scores to adequate could create a payoff of $80-$100 billio 20

21 Busiesses Should Champio Literacy Icreased output ad profitability Lower error rates Icreased ability to do o-the-job traiig Better team performace Improved labour relatios Icreased quality of work Reduced time per task Better health ad safety records Better employee ad customer retetio 21

22 No Sigs of Improvemet CANADIAN LITERACY SCORES RELATIVE TO OTHER INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES Average score - all persos Caada 273 OECD Source: The Programme for the Iteratioal Assessmet of Adult Competecies,

23 I Fact, Fewer at Desired Level 3 ad Above LITERACY BY PROFICIENCY LEVEL Per cet of populatio Level 1 or below Level 2 Level 3 Level 4/5 Source: The Programme for the Iteratioal Assessmet of Adult Competecies,

24 Numeracy Skills Have Declied NUMERACY PROFICIENCY Per cet of populatio Level 1 or below Level 2 Level 3 Level 4/5 Source: The Programme for the Iteratioal Assessmet of Adult Competecies,

25 No Geder Differece o Literacy, But Wome Weaker o Numeracy PROFICIENCY BY GENDER Average score - all persos Literacy Numeracy Male Female Source: The Programme for the Iteratioal Assessmet of Adult Competecies,

26 Alberta Does Better Tha Average, But Still Scope to Improve AVERAGE LITERACY SCORES BY PROVINCE 280 Average score NL NB QC SK OECD CAN MB NS BC ON PEI AB Source: The Programme for the Iteratioal Assessmet of Adult Competecies,

27 Alberta Average to OECD o Numeracy AVERAGE NUMERACY SCORES BY PROVINCE 280 Average score NL NB NS SK MB QC PEI CAN ON BC AB OECD Source: The Programme for the Iteratioal Assessmet of Adult Competecies,

28 Immigrats Face Challeges i Official Laguage Literacy 300 Average score AVERAGE LITERACY SCORE BY YEARS IN COUNTRY I host coutry 5 or fewer years I host coutry more tha 5 years No-immigrats Source: The Programme for the Iteratioal Assessmet of Adult Competecies,

29 Aborigial & First Natios At-risk Populatio 29

30 Weak Literacy Cotributig to Icome Iequality Icome iequality (Gii coefficiet) High icome iequality Low skills iequality Japa Korea Slovak Republic Low icome iequality Low skills iequality Czech Republic Estoia Austria Average Australia Netherlads Irelad Norway Demark Italy Caada Polad Germay FiladSwede Fladers (Belgium) High icome iequality Ui ted States High skills iequality Eglad/N. Irelad (UK) Spai Average Low icome iequality High skills iequality Literacy skills iequality (9th/1st decile) 30

31 Summary Caadia ad Alberta labour markets are improvig, but may workers will eed more support. Labour market disruptio from techology likely to accelerate amid agig workforce. Need most skilled workers possible. Higher literacy brigs sustaiable gais to idividuals, busiesses, ecoomy, society, ad democracy Raisig literacy ca help alleviate a wide rage of socioecoomic problems, such as poverty It is hard to idetify oe sigle issue that ca have such a far-ragig impact Literacy should be a key public policy iitiative Busiesses eed to become champios of literacy, as it ca raise productivity ad profitability 31

32 cofereceboard.ca

INEQUALITY, EDUCATION & SKILLS

INEQUALITY, EDUCATION & SKILLS Craig Alexander Senior Vice President and Chief Economist August 2014 INEQUALITY ON THE RISE Inequality, Education and Skills 1 TD Economics, August 2014 MIDDLE SKILL JOBS