Somalia: a watershed moment
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- Rosamund Short
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1 Somalia:
2 Somalia: a watershed moment Somalia is an important turning point: it is the many failures of the Somalian experience that dampened enthusiasm for humanitarian intervention.
3 Content 1. Somalia: a snapshot 2. The crisis: factors and circumstances 3. Intervention: factors and circumstances 4. Evaluation
4 Content 1. Somalia: a snapshot 2. The crisis: factors and circumstances 3. Intervention: factors and circumstances 4. Evaluation
5 Somalia: key facts Population: 9.8 million Agriculture-based economy Culturally homogenous (Sunni Muslim) Society is divided by clans: powerful social factions, weak state government
6 Timeline 1980s: crisis started 1992: intervention Mid 1990s: fragile state
7 Content 1. Somalia: a snapshot 2. The crisis: factors and circumstances 3. Intervention: factors and circumstances 4. Evaluation
8 Content 1. Somalia: a snapshot 2. The crisis: factors and circumstances 3. Intervention: factors and circumstances 4. Evaluation
9 Timeline 1980s: crisis started 1992: intervention Mid 1990s: fragile state
10 1960s-1980s: seeds of conflict Dictator Siad Barre came into power in He manipulated clan loyalties and used violence to maintain power.
11 The fall of Siad Barre (1991) United Somalia Congress formed between leaders of the powerful Hawiye clan overthrew Siad Barre. However, they also begun to fight in November 1991: country descended into civil war Mohamed farah aidid Ali Mahdi
12
13
14 the UN turned a blind eye Everyone was preoccupied with Iraq and Yugoslavia. Nothing was done to stop the war at its fiercest in Eventually, the UN decided they have to intervene.
15 Content 1. Somalia: a snapshot 2. The crisis: factors and circumstances 3. Intervention: factors and circumstances 4. Evaluation
16 Content 1. Somalia: a snapshot 2. The crisis: factors and circumstances 3. Intervention: factors and circumstances 4. Evaluation
17 Timeline 1980s: crisis started 1992: intervention Mid 1990s: fragile state
18 1992: intervention Early 1992: Slow and steady brokering for peace/ famine relief Late 1992: US backed UN in speeding up operations 1993: US and UN troops met with Somalian hostility: start of withdrawal of support 1995: Failed mission
19 Early 1992: too little, too late Slow UN response after deaths in 1991: Security Council passed Resolution 733: Internal conflict in Somalia constituted a threat to international peace and security
20 Early 1992: too little, too late Resolution 733: - Brokered ceasefire (March 3) - Provided humanitarian aid In practice, it turns out that: 1. Battle is stopped, but crime is rife on the streets 2. Aid cannot be distributed properly because of the lawlessness
21 The Ideal response The clan system... diluted power, and must form the basis for enduring peace. - Mohammed Sahnoun, former UN special representative for somalia
22 What was done instead April 1992: UN decides to send 500 peacekeepers to Mogadishu Good outcomes: 1. Some lives were saved by securing food supplies, transport routes Resolution 751: UNOSOM 1 2. Revitalized economy and provided resources for the people 3. Supported by local communities, including clan leaders
23 What was done instead April 1992: UN decides to send 500 peacekeepers to Mogadishu Problems: 1. Too late: the peacekeepers did not arrive until September Resolution 751: UNOSOM 1 2. Troops and aid went to Mogadishu: - Did not go to local communities, where local clan leaders could become stronger and weaken the warlords powers in Mogadishu
24 turning point in negotiation August 1992: UN decides to escalate and promise to deploy 3000 troops into Mogadishu Key turning point: UN went from strategic negotiation to forceful intervention. Resolution 775: UNOSOM 1 Consequences: 1. Degraded relationship with warlords 2. UN peacekeepers were unprotected/ attacked In reality, not all 3000 troops deployed
25 Mid 1992: US interest in somalia George Bush s ambitions led to a more intense effort to intervene in Somalia Images of starving Somalians in the media + guilt over Bosnia led to popular support for US to intervene.
26 Mid 1992: US interest in somalia Operation Rescue Hope started Security council passed Resolution 794: use of force because the situation in Somalia threatens international peace and security : unprecedented ruling
27 CNN world news: on Somalia
28 What was done December 1992: UN decides to send personnel; mostly Americans Good outcomes: 1. Successful in protecting delivery of food and aid (saved 100,000 lives) Resolution 794: Operation restore hope
29 What was done December 1992: UN decides to send personnel; mostly Americans Problems: 1. They made warlords more powerful, yet more suspicious towards the UN Resolution 794: Operation restore hope 2. Could not disarm effectively: clans would not disarm if other clans had not disarmed
30 1993: disaster mission The war was dragging on, and the US were keen to pull out. Bush wanted troops home before Clinton s inauguration, and Clinton wanted to focus on domestic policies.
31 1993: disaster mission UN took over from Operation Rescue Hope, started UNOSOM 2 UN passed Resolution 814: authorized UN forces to use force to create secure environment, to establish rule of law (nation-building mandate) More ambitious goals, but less support given
32 in June 1993, 24 Pakistani UN peacekeepers were killed US and Pakistan immediately blamed Aidid for the attacks. Passed Resolution 837: condemned all unprovoked armed attacks and authorized all necessary measures against those responsible. Mission became a man-hunt for General Aidid.
33 Due to civilian deaths caused by UN attacks in the man-hunt, soldiers were greeted with intense hostility when they landed in Americans were shocked at how a mission to save the starving became a massacre of their soldiers, and demanded withdrawal. Troops withdrew completely by 1995, leaving Somalia stateless and unstable.
34 Black hawk down, 20 years later
35 Recap 1992: intervention Early 1992: Slow and steady brokering for peace/ famine relief Late 1992: US backed UN in speeding up operations 1993: US and UN troops met with Somalian hostility: start of withdrawal of support 1995: Failed mission
36 Aftermath Somalia: Fell into statelessness, as government not established until Went through more wars, and remained in poverty. International community: Lost many soldiers, and also lost their appetite for humanitarian intervention. Set up the tragic circumstances for the inaction in Rwanda.
37 Content 1. Somalia: a snapshot 2. The crisis: factors and circumstances 3. Intervention: factors and circumstances 4. Evaluation
38 Content 1. Somalia: a snapshot 2. The crisis: factors and circumstances 3. Intervention: factors and circumstances 4. Evaluation
39 Framework: Wheelers Criteria Minimum criteria: 1. Supreme humanitarian emergency 2. Necessity 3. Proportionality 4. Positive humanitarian outcome Good to have: A. Humanitarian motive B. Humanitarian justifications C. Legality D. Selectivity
40 First phase: UNOSOM 1 Minimum criteria: 1. Supreme humanitarian emergency (5/5) 2. Necessity (3/5) 3. Proportionality (3/5) 4. Positive humanitarian outcome (4/5) Good to have: A. Humanitarian motive (5/5) B. Humanitarian justifications (5/5) C. Legality (5/5) D. Selectivity (5/5)
41 Phase 2: Operation rescue hope Minimum criteria: 1. Supreme humanitarian emergency (5/5) 2. Necessity (3/5) 3. Proportionality (4/5) 4. Positive humanitarian outcome (4/5) Good to have: A. Humanitarian motive (4/5) B. Humanitarian justifications (5/5) C. Legality (5/5) D. Selectivity (4/5)
42 Phase 3: UNOSOM 2 Minimum criteria: 1. Supreme humanitarian emergency (5/5) 2. Necessity (5/5) 3. Proportionality (2.5/5) 4. Positive humanitarian outcome (2/5) Good to have: A. Humanitarian motive (2.5/5) B. Humanitarian justifications (2.5/5) C. Legality (5/5) D. Selectivity (3/5)
43 Of all our studies, history is best qualified to reward our research. Malcolm x (1963)
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