Matching Economic. Migration with Labour. Market Needs /V OECD BETTER POUCIES FOR SETTER UVES. European Commission

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1 Matching Economic Migration with Labour Market Needs /V OECD BETTER POUCIES FOR SETTER UVES European Commission

2 TABLE Of CONTENT* 5 Table of contents Executive summary j 5 Editorial: Turningthe corner 17 Part I. Demographic context Chapter 1. Demographic trends, labour market needs and Migration 23 by Frangois Heran 1.1. Introduction Conclusion: Learning from the past - Conciliating economic needs and human rights Notes 34 References 35 Chapter 2. Demographic change and the future of the labour force in the EU27, other OECD countries and selected large emerging economies 37 by Jason Gagnon 2.1. Introduction Main findings Long-term global demographic trends Recent trends in working-age population in the EU27 and other OECD countries The labour force: Demographic vs. cohort effects Beyond participation: Skills and geographica! mismatches What role does international migration play? Conclusion 56 Notes 57 References 58 Annex 2.AI. Supplementaiy figures 62 Chapter 3. Current and future skills of the workforce: The demography of educational attainment and the role of migration 67 by Josep Mestres 3.1. Introduction Educational attainment of the labour force and the role of migration Projections of the labour force by educational attainment for Conclusion 94 Notes *6 References *7 Annex 3.AI. Methodology for estimating the components of demographic change 98 Annex 3.A2. Methodology for estimating the projected educational attainment of the workforce in 2020 MATCHING ECONOMIC MIORATION WITH LABOUR MARKET NEEDS C OECD/EUROPEAN UNION 2014

3 6 - TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter 4. The demography of occupational change and skill use among immigrants and the native-born by Georges Lemaitre 4.1. Introduction 4.2. Main findings 4.3. The demography of occupational change 4.4. The extent of occupational change over the decade Occupational change and intra- and extra-european migration 4.6. Occupational change: The gender dimension 4.7. Conclusion Notes References Annex 4.AI. Methodology for estimating the components of demographic change Annex 4.A2. Occupational change and overqualification Part II. Migrant skills Chapter 5. Immigrant skills, their measurement, use and return: A review of literature 153 by Ana Damas de Matos 5.1. Introduction Immigrants' educational attainment and skills Returns to education and skills in the host country labour market Explanations for the differences in returns to Immigrant and native skills Conclusion 173 Notes 176 References 177 Annex 5.AI. Educational attainment 183 Annex 5.A2. Explanatory factors of the difference in returns to education between immigrants and natives 185 Chapter 6. The qualifications of immigrants and their value in the labour market: A comparison of Europe and the United States by Ana Damas de Matos and Thomas Liebig 6.1. Introduction 6.2. The qualifications of immigrants 6.3. The value of immigrants' qualifications in the labour market 6.4. Selected issues in transferring qualifications from the country of origin to the host country 6.5. Conclusion Notes References Annex.ö.Al. Supplementary tables and figures MATCHING ECONOMIC MIGRATION WITH LABOUR MARKET NEEDS OECD/EUROPEAN UNION 2014

4 TABLE OF CONTENTS - 7 Chapter 7. The international portability of migrant human capital: Canadian experiences 229 by Arthur Sweetman 7.1. Introduction The Canadian context Aspects of skill portability central to labour market outcomes Interactions between skills affect portability Conclusion 242 Notes 243 References 246 Chapter 8. Migrants' skills: Use, mismatch and labour market outcomes - A first exploration of the International Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) 249 by Sara Bonfanti and Theodora Xenogiani 8.1. Introduction Description of the data Migrants' skills and how they compare with those of natives The labour market outcomes of migrants The wages of migrants Conclusion 300 Notes 303 References 305 Annex 8.A1. Further descriptives and analysis 309 Part III. Labour shortages and Migration Chapter 9. Projected labour market imbalances in Europe: Policy challenges in meeting the Europe 2020 employment targets 315 by Cedefop 's Skills Analysis Team under the supervision of Pascaline Descy 9.1. Introduction Employment rate gaps in EU member states Meeting the EU2020 employment target Labour imbalances and the need for activation in EU member states Conclusion 326 Notes 328 References 329 Annex 9.A1. The Cedefop pan-european forecasting model of skill supply and skill demand 330 Chapter 10. Occupational labour shortages: Underlying concepts and their role in US migration policy 335 by Burt S. Barnow Introduction Occupational labour shortages in theory and practice Using occupational shortage data for Immigration and temporary visas Conclusion 345 Notes 347 References 348 MATCHING ECONOMIC MIGRATION WITH LABOUR MARKET NEEDS OECD/EUROPEAN UNION 2014

5 8 - TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter 11. Migration in Europa: An overview of results froin the 2008 Immigrant module with implications for labour migration 349 by Georges Lemaitre Introduction The data source International migration by reason for migrating The evolution of the distribution of reasons for migrating by years of residence Employment rates by category of entry and their evolution with years of residence Occupation skill levels of recent immigrants and overqualification Sources of skills Job-changing among recent international migrants A recapitulation of results from the module Policy implications Increasing retention Increasing the volume of highly skilled migration Conclusion 376 Notes 378 References 379 Figures Figure 1.1. Percentage of immigrants ("Ist generation") and children of immigrant(s) ("2nd generation") in selected countries 25 Figure 1.2. The weight of family and humanitarian migration to France 30 Figure 1.3. Differences in employment rates between foreign-born and native-bom in OECD countries (men and women), Figure 1.4. Proportion of population "with a migration background" (first + second generations) in German Länder 32 Figure 2.1. Total population by major area, Figure 2.2. Average annual rate of population change, Figure 2.3. Median age of the population, Figure 2.4. Population aged 15-24, Figure 2.5. Population pyramids, 2010 vs Figure 2.6. Variation in the working-age population between 2010 and 2020 in OECD countries and selected emerging economies 45 Figure 2.7. Labour force participation (15-64) by gender in selected OECD countries and the EU27, Figure 2.8. Evolution of average number of years of schooling of the adult population in OECD countries, 1970,2010, Figure 2.9. Components of total population growth in OECD countries, Figure Age structure of the population aged 15 and over in OECD countries by gender and place of birth, 2005/06 52 Figure Old-age dependency ratio for total and native-bom population in selected OECD countries, Figure Share of high-educated among immigrants and native-bom, aged 15 and over, by duration of stay in selected OECD countries, 2005/06 53 Figure Permanent inflows into selected OECD countries, by category of entry, Figure Participation rates (15-64) by gender and place of birth in selected OECD countries, MATCHING ECONOMIC MIGRATION WITH LABOUR MARKET NEEDS C OECD/EUROPEAN UNION 2014