Low-skilled adults in Europe and their situation in the labour market

Transcription

1 MLP - Upskilling unemployed adults Low-skilled adults in Europe and their situation in the labour market Brussels, 25 June 2015 Antonio Ranieri

2 Economic and Social Costs of Low Skilled Adults in the EU Aims & Objectives of Project Definition & Measurement of the Low-Skilled Low-Skilled Adults in EU Future Scenarios for Low-Skilled Adults Economic & Social Costs of Low-Skilled Adults

3 Not only education: low skills for low jobs A broader definition for a multi-dimensional phenomenon but: limitations in the available information. Starting point: Low-educated people people with educational attainment ISCED 0-2 Low-skilled people those with ISCED 3 who have experienced obsolescence of skills Low-skilled jobs (extended definition) elementary occupations (Sub-group 9 in ISCO classification) other occupation categories (Sub-group 8-6 & Sub-group 5-4).

4 Low-educated adults in EU-28 ( ) Thousands Old and new trends % 37.4 % 36.4 % 6.1 % 6.1 % 11.0 % Population Active not in Employment More likely: self-employed part-time work temporary contract % 56.5 % 52.7 % Employment Eurostat EU-LFS, 2015

5 Low-educated adults and the crisis When it rains it pours LM indicators for low-educated TOTAL Adults: employment rates by education level ,4% Change Eurostat EU-LFS, 2015 LOW 52,7% -3,9% MEDIUM 73,4% -1,3% HIGH 83,7% -1,4% Source: Eurostat, LFS

6 FEMALE MALE Antonio Ranieri Low-qualified and the crisis Why focusing on low-educated/skilled adults is important? Changes in employment rates in EU Low Edu Med Edu High Edu million jobs in 2014 compared to 2008 but also + 10 million jobs in 2014 compared to Growing disparities and inequalities Eurostat EU-LFS, 2015

7 Job opportunities by qualification level Tends in employment by education, , EU LOW Declining number of low educated in employment MEDIUM HIGH and even overall job opportunities comparatively small Cedefop skills forecast 2015 Net Change Total Requirement

8 Job opportunities in low-skilled occupations Trends in employment by occupation, , EU Low skilled Slight growing polarization Semi-skilled manual Semi-skilled non-manual High-skilled But: significant replacement needs due to demographic changes Cedefop skills forecast 2015 Net Change Total Requirement

9 Educational attainment levels & cognitive skills levels are important predictors for participation in learning activities 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Gap in Participation Rate of Adults (25-64) to LLL in past 12 months by educational level and proficiency in literacy AES Educational attainment (High-Low)(1) PIAAC Literacy score (High-Low) (2) Source: Own elaboration on Eurostat metadata AES (2011) and PIAAC (2012) (1) Difference in pp participation rates to formal/non-formal education/training between adults with tertiary education (ISCED levels 5-6) and those with less than secondary education (ISCED levels 0-2, 3 short). (2) Difference in pp points between adults with high proficiency scores in literacy (Levels 4 and 5) and those with low proficiency scores in literacy (Below level 1 and Level 1).

10 Economic and Social Costs of Low Skilled Adults in the EU Point of view Individuals Employers Individual wage return Costs (foregone benefits) higher probability (odd ratio) to be employed and/or to participate to the labour market Improved long-term employment trajectories Health benefits Intangibles (well-being, social inclusion) Productivity gains and higher returns to investment Saving of downtime due to lack of skilled staff and saving of recruitment costs

11 Point of view Fiscal/public sector Society at large Costs (foregone benefits) Higher activity rate and lower unemployment reduce unemployment and out-of-work social benefits, ALMP public expenditure, etc. Higher wages increase tax revenues Better health reduces healthcare spending Reduced crime/positive effects on communities - reduce costs to legal & social assistance systems Higher productivity and economic growth (no simple aggregation of individual benefits net-gains). Positive externalities (reduction of inequalities, social exclusion, gender gaps, crime, etc.; increase in non-monetary well-being, citizenship, etc.) Reduction in the black/informal economy But: no free lunches (investment in ET, opportunity costs, etc.)

12