Iraq/Iran as Case Studies. JOGMEC Seminar 2018

Transcription

1 Iraq/Iran as Case Studies JOGMEC Seminar 2018

2 Big Caveat This is my Guess not Fact No One Can Predict the Future Trump Likes to Be Unpredictable Your Guess is as Good as Mine!

3 Table of Contents US Policy = Trump Policy Domestic Drivers of Trump Policy Regional Voices on Trump Policy Policy Results for Iraq Policy Results for Iran

4 Too Few Hands 4,000 Political Appointee Positions 1,200 Need Senate OK 635 Key Positions 116 at State Dept; 53 at Defense Dept. 22 at Energy; 27 at Treasury; 11 at USAID As of January Confirmed (38%) 146 Waiting (22%); 242 Not Nominated

5 Key Positions at 12 Months 100% 50% 0% Trump Obama Bush Position Confirmed Position Empty

6 Policy People Missing

7 Trump s Response "Let me tell you, the one that matters is me, I'm the only one that matters. Because when it comes to it that's what the policy is going to be. 3 November 2017

8 Trump s Policy Reactive Not Proactive 壁打ち Not 将棋 No Strategic Vision Make America Great Again Changes Daily Delivered by Tweet Key Factor is Trump s Personal Image - and Winning Defined as Better/Smarter than Obama/Bush/Hillary Input from Cable TV No Interest in History; Does Not Read Keyed to Supporter-Base Issues Goal to Preserve, Not Expand Support

9 Israel AIPAC (American Israeli Public Affairs Committee) The mission of AIPAC is to strengthen, protect and promote the U.S.-Israel relationship in ways that enhance the security of the United States and Israel. March of 5 Presidential candidates at AIPAC conference: Trump, Clinton, Cruz and Kasich. Only Bernie Sanders missing. Only Sanders is Jewish. Trump promises to move US Embassy to Jerusalem. Calls Iran biggest sponsor of terrorism in the world.

10 Saudi Arabia Money Behind Many DC-Think Tanks Saudi American Public Relations Affairs Committee The Arabia Foundation - Arab Gulf States Institute Middle East Policy Council - Middle East Institute US-Saudi Arabian Business Council Who s Who Exxon, Chevron, Boeing, Lockheed, GE, Bechtel, Fluor Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Dow Chemical, Ford, Pepsi Shares with Israel a Common Threat in Iran; Partners in Trump s Ultimate Deal for Middle East

11 Now Let s Look at Iraq/Iran

12 Iraq 10,000 US Military Returns to Iraq Peak (2007): 170,000 6,812 8,890 5,000 2,500 3,050 3,400 3,700 4,087 0 Jan-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Jun-16 Dec-16 Dec-17*

13 With Troops Come Contractors US Defense Contractor Growth in Iraq 5,165 4,565 4,087 3,700 3,400 3,592 3,050 2,992 2,300 2,485 2,028 1, Jan-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 US Contractors US Troops

14 But US Companies Stay Away BP (United Kingdom) CNOOC (China) CNPC (China) Crescent Petroleum (UAE) Dana Gas (UAE) Daqing (China) Dragon Oil (UAE) Eni (Italy) ExxonMobil (US) Gazprom (Russia) Geo-Jade Petroleum (China) Itochu (Japan) JSOC Bashneft (Russia) Kogas (South Korea) Lukoil (Russia) ONGC Videsh (India) Pakistan Petroleum (Pakistan) Pertamina (Indonesia) Petronas (Malaysia) Shell (Netherlands/UK) Sinopec (China) Schlumberger (US) UEG (China) Total (France) Zarubezhneft (Russia) Zhenhua Oil (China)

15 Mosul November 2015

16 Mosul July 2017

17 Destruction Widespread

18 $100 Billion From Where? PM Abadi $100 Billion Needed We cannot provide it from our own budget 25 January 2018 Total US Aid since 2014 totals $1.7 Billion $600 Million in 2017 called short term focus (anti-isis) USAID Budget for % Cut Expected For the long term, Iraq is going to have to provide these services USAID Counselor, December 2017

19 2017 Hello Riyadh!

20 With US Applause US Secretary of State Tillerson This new reopening of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iraq is extremely important to stability of the region and to the future of Iraq. There will be new economic opportunities created from the Saudi-Iraqi agreement. Saudi Foreign Minister Al-Jubeir Saudi Arabia and Iraq have historic, familial, and economic ties. We are neighbors sharing a long border. We have similar ambitions, we are both oil producers, and we are both Arab countries.

21 US Policy Bullets OK; Aid NO Give US Military Free Hand to Defeat ISIS Estimates of 1,000 ISIS fighters still active Don t Repeat Mistakes of Past Presidents Bush Nation Building ; Obama Disengagement Oppose Iran s Influence; Support Saudi Ties Keep PM Abadi in Power (May 2018 Election) Prevent Return of former PM Maliki ( Iran's Puppet ) But No US Aid Money No Soft-Power Let Saudis Pay for Reconstruction America First!

22 Now the Hard One - Iran

23 Iran As the EU Sees It

24 For Good Reason 35% 30% 25% 20% Iran Oil Exports: Nov - Dec % 28% 21% 15% 10% 5% 8% 5% 8% 0% China EU India Japan South Korea Other

25 No US Business Lobby 25 Iran Imports and Exports: US vs EU 20 Billion USD (Jan - Nov)* US Total Trade EU Total Trade

26 Breakdown of US Numbers Iran total 2017 trade with US - $130 Million, down from $172 Million in /3rds - US exports of agricultural goods, particularly soybeans/soybean oil US imports from Iran - almost 100% art work and carpets (Persian rugs) No Fortune 500 names! No Lobby Power!

27 But What About Boeing? Boeing Contracts for 110 Commercial Aircraft worth $20 Billion and Tens of Thousands of Jobs (Boeing Claims in 2016) License Still Under Review Chances Look Dim But, Boeing Stock Rose 107% in Last 12 Months Prospects of Higher Defense Spending Offset Iran? As the government provides us details and guidance, we will adjust our activities if required (Boeing)

28 Boeing Not Worried - 107% Up

29 Meanwhile New Sanctions US Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned Iran 10 times in last 12 months: Jan 12, 2018 Human Rights Jan 04, 2018 Missile Program Nov 20, 2017 IRGC and Counterfeit Currency Oct 13, 2017 IRGC and Global Terrorism Sep 14, 2017 Cyber-Crime Jul 28, 2017 Jul 18, 2017 Missile Program Transnational Criminal Activity May 17, 2017 Missile Program Apr 13, 2017 Human Rights Feb 03, 2017 Missile Program

30 JCPOA - Nuclear Deal Certification Every 90 days Trump Certified Twice 18 April 2017, 17 July 2017 Trump De-Certified Last Time 13 October 2017 Congress Failed to Take Action under 60-day window Certification Due Again in Mid-March if not, so what? Sanctions Waiver Every 120 days Trump Waived 3 Times 17 May, 14 Sept, 12 Jan 2018 Next Deadline 12 May 2018 Trumps says Not Again Refusal to waive would re-impose severe sanctions

31 Nuclear Deal = Obama-Care Primary Aim Undo Obama Success Encouraged by Anti-Iran Base and Regional Voices Calls Both a Bad Deal Tear-Up! But No Replacement; Doesn t Want Responsibility Seek to Undo Both Programs Indirectly In Iran Deal, this Means: Encourage Iran Itself to Withdraw by Other Pressure Discourage Foreign Investors by Continued Uncertainty Policy Result Hostile But Unclear

32 Near-Term Guess No Clarity on JCPOA or Nuclear Sanctions Impede Iranian Access to Global Market Increase Non-Nuclear Sanctions Encourage Internal Protests as Possible Hope for Favorable Internal Changes

33 Bottom Line No One Can Predict Future US Policy Don t Expect Certainty Won t Come Make Choices Based on Best Guess Don t Use PowerPoint for that Guess!

34 Only Easy Questions Please!