The Economic Cost of Exclusion of LGBT people. M. V. Lee Badgett University of Massachusetts Amherst Williams Institute, UCLA December 2016

Transcription

1 The Economic Cost of Exclusion of LGBT people M. V. Lee Badgett University of Massachusetts Amherst Williams Institute, UCLA December 2016

2 Should Society Accept Homosexuality? Source: Pew Research Global Attitudes Project

3 Relatively accepting of homosexuality Should Society Accept Homosexuality? Source: Pew Research Global Attitudes Project

4 % would not want homosexual neighbor Philippines China Taiwan Malaysia Singapore Thailand World Values Survey

5 But most believe homosexuality is morally unacceptable US 37% 23% 35% Philippines 65% 25% 9% Unacceptable Acceptable Not moral issue Source: Pew Research Center Global Views on Morality

6 Crossnational Country Employer Person

7 Social Exclusion Individual-level outcomes HOMOPHOBIA Violence Prison Job loss Discriminatio n Family rejection Harassment in school Pressure to marry Less education Lower productivity Lower earnings, more poverty Poorer health, shorter lives Lower labor force participation

8 Social Exclusion Individual-level outcomes Economy-level outcomes HOMOPHOBIA Violence Prison Job loss Discriminatio n Family rejection Harassment in school Pressure to marry Less education Lower productivity Lower earnings, more poverty Poorer health, shorter lives Lower labor force participation Higher health care & social program costs Lower economic output Fewer incentives to invest in human capital

9 Social Exclusion Individual-level outcomes Economy-level outcomes HOMOPHOBIA Violence Prison Job loss Discriminatio n Family rejection Harassment in school Pressure to marry Less education Lower productivity Lower earnings, more poverty Poorer health, shorter lives Lower labor force participation Higher health care & social program costs Lower economic output Fewer incentives to invest in human capital

10 Crossnational Country Employer Person

11 [Discriminatory laws] can impede Hewlett-Packard business efforts to Intel Google Barnes & Noble recruit, hire, and Microsoft retain the best Verizon Apple workers Aetna in an environment Clorox that Office Depot Morgan Stanley Nike Viacom enables them to perform at Facebook Xerox their best. McGraw Hill

12 LGBT-supportive policies and workplace climates generate economic benefits for employers Greater job commitment Improved health outcomes Increased job satisfaction 3 11 More openness about being LGBT 1 8 Improved workplace relationships 3 Less discrimination Increased productivity 1 Positive business relationship No business relationship Negative business relationship

13 Crossnational Country Employer Person

14 Social Exclusion Individual-level outcomes Economy-level outcomes HOMOPHOBIA Violence Prison Job loss Discriminatio n Family rejection Harassment in school Pressure to marry Less education Lower productivity Lower earnings, more poverty Poorer health, shorter lives Lower labor force participation Higher health care & social program costs Lower economic output Fewer incentives to invest in human capital

15 World Bank Case Study: Cost of LGBT Exclusion in India The model can estimate: Lost productivity caused by discrimination in workplace Impact of family constraints on decisionmaking about labor force participation Cost of health disparities: HIV, depression, suicide Rough estimate: 0.1 to 1.4% of GDP

16 A sketch of a model for The Philippines (Zhang, 2015) (1) Lost labor productivity ~ 3% of young Filipino young men reported same-sex attraction (Manalastas, 2013) Assumption: 10% global gay wage gap (10% x average earnings) * (3% x labor force) = $254 million PLEASE DO NOT CITE!

17 A sketch of a model for The Philippines (Zhang, 2015) (2) Health disparities HIV (UNAIDS) MSM prevalence: 3.3% Assume about 3 times higher than population (less than 1%), rate cut in half without stigma and exclusion Suicide Population: 2.9 per 100,000 (WHO) Suicide ideation for young same-sex attracted men twice that of diff-sex (Manalastas, 2013) Assume LGBT suicide rate twice than of population Use DALYs for cost: total $293 million PLEASE DO NOT CITE

18 A sketch of a model for The Philippines (Zhang, 2015) Workplace: $284 million Two Health disparities: $293 million TOTAL: $548 million 0.2% of GDP PLEASE DO NOT CITE

19 Crossnational Country Employer Person

20 Compare countries (USAID & Williams Inst. 2014) Inclusion Index of legal rights (GILRHO)? Economic outcomes GDP per capita, Human Dev Index

21 Positive correlation of rights with GDP per capita, Taiwan GDP per capita (Thousands USD) Malaysia Egypt Indonesia Morocco India Pakistan Kenya Chile Peru Ukraine Russia Turkey Thailand China Guatemala Honduras Nepal Poland Latvia Bosnia & Herzegovina Philippines Estonia Lithuania Romania Bulgaria Venezuela Albania El Salvador Czech Rep. Serbia Colombia Ecuador Mexico Hungary Brazil Argentina South Africa Global Index on Legal Recognition of Homosexual Orientation

22 Transgender rights positively correlated with GDP per capita Poland Russia GDP per capita (Thousands USD) Thailand Bosnia-Herzegovina Chile Serbia Turkey Argentina Venezuela Brazil South Africa Ecuador 4 Egypt Philippines India 2 - Kenya El Salvador Transgender Rights Index

23 Econometric findings One additional right + $320 GDP per cap (3%)

24 Human capital & economic potential Post-materialist demand for human rights LGBT INCLUSION Strategic modernization ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Achievement of capabilities

25 Ideas Action UN Development Programme World Bank Inter-American Development Bank Development agencies in United States (USAID) Sweden Norway Netherlands UK Germany