Do emigrants self-select along cultural traits?

Transcription

1 Do emigrants self-select along cultural traits? Evidence from the MENA countries Docquier F. Tansel A. Turati R. FEMISE Annual Conference Casablanca April 29 th, 2017 Docquier, Tansel, Turati Emigrants' selection and Culture April 29 th, / 17

2 Introduction What the paper does? We test: 1 whether emigrants from MENA self-select in terms of cultural traits 2 whether cultural selection varies across countries and individual categories 3 whether cultural selection is aected by Arab Spring How? Gallup World Poll : 17 MENA countries. Identify indicators of progressive culture. Investigate destination specic eect of Religiosity and Gender-egalitarian views on the intention to migrate. Various controls, subsamples and matching. Docquier, Tansel, Turati Emigrants' selection and Culture April 29 th, / 17

3 Introduction Why does it matter? As Human Capital, Culture can inuence long-term economic performance and standards of living across societies Past and recent works identify the link between culture and economic development (Weber (1946); Piketty (1995); Knack and Keefer (1997)) It can aect technological adoption and democracy transition (Spolaore and Wacziarg (2012); Murting and Wacziarg(2014)) Gender-egalitarian attitudes and religiosity can aect discriminations, empowerment and individual openess to innovation, inuencing economic growth (Bergh (2007); Duo (2012); Benabou et al. (2015); Chase (2014)) International migration can bring cultural convergence/divergence between countries Docquier, Tansel, Turati Emigrants' selection and Culture April 29 th, / 17

4 Introduction Why does it matter? Even though several studies explore the determinants of migration ows, in particular skill selection,: No papers on migrants cultural selection (excluding Berlinschi and Harutyunyan (2016)) Micro and Macro determinants: gender, age, education, networks, income, political instability, environmental conditions, local amenities, etc. (Beine and Parsons (2012); Bertoli and Ruyssen (2016); Dustmann and Okatenko (2014); Docquier et al. (2014); Chort (2014); Mayda (2010); etc.) Do individual cultural traits aect emigration decisions (i.e. the decision to emigrate and the destination)? Docquier, Tansel, Turati Emigrants' selection and Culture April 29 th, / 17

5 Data, Migration Decision and Cultural Traits Data Source Gallup World Poll Individual-level Surveys Years: 2007 to MENA Countries: Afghanistan, Algeria, Azerbaijan, Chad, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Mali, Mauritania, Morocco, Niger, West Bank-Gaza, Syria, Tunisia and Yemen. Population age: (Natives) Individual data on gender, martial status, age, income, children, education,individual networks, geographical location, etc. Docquier, Tansel, Turati Emigrants' selection and Culture April 29 th, / 17

6 Data, Migration Decision and Cultural Traits Migration Decision Intention to migrate: Ideally, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move permanently to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country? Data: 24% population would like to emigrate. Aspired Destination To which country would you like to move? Data: 52.3% would go to OECD countries Plan to migrate Are you planning to move permanently to another country in the next 12 months, or not? Docquier, Tansel, Turati Emigrants' selection and Culture April 29 th, / 17

7 Data, Migration Decision and Cultural Traits Measuring Cultural Traits 1 We identify 12 questions related to culture about: Gender-egalitarian views (3 questions) Generosity (3 questions) Religiosity (2 questions) Violence (2 questions) Others (2 questions) Questions Questions Questions Questions Questions 2 Order the answers in a progressive order and normalized them: 1 Progressive (be generous, share gender-egalitarian views, not religious, not justify violence) 0 Conservative Docquier, Tansel, Turati Emigrants' selection and Culture April 29 th, / 17

8 Data, Migration Decision and Cultural Traits Measuring Cultural Traits 3 Two-Stage Principal Component Analysis: Four Cultural indicators: Religiosity, Gender, Generosity and Violence. We will focus on Religiosity and Gender-egalitarian views 1. Highly correlated with the level of development, in line with the literature (Duo (2012); Benabou et al. (2015); Chase (2014)) 2. Nicely correlated with other measures of religiosity and gender-egalitarian attitudes (World Value Survey) 3. Due to data availability, analysis is restricted over the period Docquier, Tansel, Turati Emigrants' selection and Culture April 29 th, / 17

9 Empirical Strategy Empirical Strategy Benchmark Specication (Logit Model) Pr{Migr irt = 1 Culture irt, {x irt }, θ r, θ t } = Φ{α+βCulture irt +γx irt +θ r +θ t } Migr irt : intention to migrate Culture irt : proxy for culture (dummy; 1 intending migrants) (1 progressive, 0 conservative) x irt : individual characterstics (age, gender, network, education, marital status, children, income and income 2 ) θ r and θ t : region and time xed eects Docquier, Tansel, Turati Emigrants' selection and Culture April 29 th, / 17

10 Results Benchmark Results (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Dep. Var. Int Mig Int Mig Int Mig Int Mig Int Mig Int Mig Culture Gend Rel Gend Rel Gend Rel Destination All All OECD OECD non OECD non OECD Culture *** 0.190* 0.509*** (0.110) (0.104) (0.115) (0.093) (0.159) (0.170) Observations 29,500 31,281 25,689 27,368 25,555 26,295 Individual Controls Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Region f.e. Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Year-Wave f.e. Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Partial R Docquier, Tansel, Turati Emigrants' selection and Culture April 29 th, / 17

11 Results Benchmark Results 1. Emigrants towards OECD countries exhibit lower level of religiosity. 2. Small or no selection on gender-egalitarian views. 3. No cultural selection towards non OECD countries. 4. Individual controls are in line with the literature 5. Results robust when we use concrete migration plan as dependent variable. Plan Docquier, Tansel, Turati Emigrants' selection and Culture April 29 th, / 17

12 Results Robustness Analysis 1 Robustness by Subsamples: Preferred OECD destinations (EU, North America, Turkey) Skill and Gender Groups (Men, Men LS, Men HS) Age Groups (15-30; 31-45; 46-65) 2 Robustness by Matched Samples Unbalanced distribution of covariates inuence the accuracy of estimates (Imbens and Rubin, 2012) Mahalanobis Metric Matching: balanced samples 3 Exploiting Heterogeneity across Countries Interaction with country-specic macro variables: Share of Sunnis/Shiites Log of GDP per capita Institutional quality Networks abrod (macro) Docquier, Tansel, Turati Emigrants' selection and Culture April 29 th, / 17

13 Results Robustness Analysis - Results 1 Robustness by Subsamples: Higher selection (religiosity) towards North America; no selection towards Turkey Men self-select more; no selection across education groups Young individuals (15-30) self-select on gender-egalitarian views Subsamples 2 Robustness by Matched Samples Results are similar to benchmark results. Matched 3 Exploiting Heterogeneity across Countries Religiosity: always signicant and not aected by macro characteristics Gender-egalitarian views: aspiring migrants from Sunni majority countries have more progressive views Heterogeneity Docquier, Tansel, Turati Emigrants' selection and Culture April 29 th, / 17

14 Results Cultural Selection and Arab Spring One question on religiosity Is religion an important part of your daily life? Highly correlated with our Religiosity Index (0.781) Only question available over Post Arab Spring dummy (1 from 2011 to 2016) and interaction terms. Interaction=Religiosity XPostAS Distinguish between Main Insurgents (Algeria, Egyrpt, Tunisia, Syria and Yemen) and Others Robustness: matched sample before and after Arab Spring Docquier, Tansel, Turati Emigrants' selection and Culture April 29 th, / 17

15 Results Cultural Selection and Arab Spring (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Destination OECD OECD OECD OECD OECD OECD Sample Full Full Full Matched Matched Matched Countries All Main Ins. Others All Main Ins. Others Religiosity 0.473*** 0.560*** 0.409*** 0.446*** 0.559*** 0.396*** (0.080) (0.088) (0.116) (0.062) (0.108) (0.082) Interaction ** * (0.177) (0.215) (0.203) (0.173) (0.244) (0.228) Observations 100,544 34,914 65,630 41,801 14,328 27,473 Individual Controls Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Region f.e. Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Year-Wave f.e. Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Partial R Docquier, Tansel, Turati Emigrants' selection and Culture April 29 th, / 17

16 Conclusions Conclusions 1 Aspiring migrants are culturally selected, depending on the preferred destination. 2 Intending migrants towards OECD countries are less religious. 3 Young intending migrants or from countries with Sunni majority share gender-egalitarian views. 4 Where highly relevant, Arab Spring has decreased the cultural selection of migrants. Docquier, Tansel, Turati Emigrants' selection and Culture April 29 th, / 17

17 Thanks for your attention! Docquier, Tansel, Turati Emigrants' selection and Culture April 29 th, / 17

18 Appendix Gender-egalitarian views Back Gender 1: Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? Women and men should have equal legal rights. (Gallup code: wp1140) Gender 2: Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? Women should be allowed to hold any job for which they are qualied outside the home. (Gallup code: wp1145) Gender 3: Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? Women should have the right to initiate a divorce. (Gallup code: wp3966) Docquier, Tansel, Turati Emigrants' selection and Culture April 29 th, / 11

19 Appendix Religiosity Back Religiosity 1: Is religion an important part of your daily life? (Gallup code: wp119) Religiosity 2: Have you attended a place of worship or religious service within the past seven days? (Gallup code: wp120) Docquier, Tansel, Turati Emigrants' selection and Culture April 29 th, / 11

20 Appendix Generosity Back Generosity 1: Have you done any of the following in the past month? How about donated money to a charity? (Gallup code: wp108) Generosity 2: Have you done any of the following in the past month? How about volunteered your time to an organization? (Gallup code: wp109) Generosity 3: Have you done any of the following in the past month? How about helped a stranger or someone you didn't know who needed help? Docquier, Tansel, Turati Emigrants' selection and Culture April 29 th, / 11

21 Appendix Violence Back Violence 1: Some people think that for the military to target and kill civilians is sometimes justied, while others think that kind of violence is never justied. Which is your opinion? (Gallup code: wp4653) Violence 2: Some people think that For an individual person or a small group of persons to target and kill civilians is sometimes justied, while others think that kind of violence is never justied. Which is your opinion? (Gallup code: wp4654) Docquier, Tansel, Turati Emigrants' selection and Culture April 29 th, / 11

22 Appendix Others Back Other 1: There are many acts some people may do in life. I will read out to you a number of these acts. I would like you to indicate to which extent it can be morally justied. Sacricing one's life for what one believes in. Other 2: Some people believe that groups that are oppressed and are suering from injustice can improve their situation by peaceful means ALONE. Others do not believe that peaceful means ALONE will work to improve the situation for such oppressed groups. Which do you believe? Docquier, Tansel, Turati Emigrants' selection and Culture April 29 th, / 11

23 Appendix Plan to migrate (1) (2) (3) (4) Dep. Var. Int Mig Plan Mig Int Mig Plan Mig Culture Gend Gend Rel Rel Destination OECD OECD OECD OECD Culture 0.190* *** 0.832*** (0.115) (0.173) (0.093) (0.235) Observations 25,689 10,860 27,368 12,231 Individual Controls Yes Yes Yes Yes Region f.e. Yes Yes Yes Yes Year-Wave f.e. Yes Yes Yes Yes Partial R Back Docquier, Tansel, Turati Emigrants' selection and Culture April 29 th, / 11

24 Appendix Robustness by Subsample (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Culture Gend Rel Gend Rel Gend Rel Destination EU EU US/Can US/Can Turk Turk Culture *** 0.261* 0.683*** (0.130) (0.117) (0.153) (0.136) (0.207) (0.272) Observations 22,570 24,733 22,018 22,780 10,699 11,347 Individual Controls Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Region f.e. Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Year-Wave f.e. Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Partial R Back Docquier, Tansel, Turati Emigrants' selection and Culture April 29 th, / 11

25 Appendix Robustness by Subsample (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Culture Gend Rel Gend Rel Gend Rel Destination OECD OECD OECD OECD OECD OECD Group Men Men Men LS Men LS Men HS Men HS Culture *** *** 0.352* 0.722*** (0.161) (0.094) (0.196) (0.246) (0.183) (0.107) Observations 12,809 13,744 5,086 4,903 7,286 8,515 Individual Controls Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Region f.e. Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Year-Wave f.e. Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Partial R Back Docquier, Tansel, Turati Emigrants' selection and Culture April 29 th, / 11

26 Appendix Robustness by Subsample (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Culture Gend Rel Gend Rel Gend Rel Destination OECD OECD OECD OECD OECD OECD Age Culture 0.332** 0.448*** *** ** (0.131) (0.110) (0.220) (0.123) (0.284) (0.217) Observations 11,927 12,493 7,659 8,433 4,235 4,806 Individual Controls Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Region f.e. Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Year-Wave f.e. Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Partial R Back Docquier, Tansel, Turati Emigrants' selection and Culture April 29 th, / 11

27 Appendix Robustness by Matched Sample (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Culture Gend Rel Gend Rel Gend Rel Destination All All OECD OECD non OECD non OECD Culture *** *** (0.130) (0.118) (0.146) (0.113) (0.176) (0.164) Observations 9,736 11,034 7,228 8,415 7,179 7,757 Individual Controls Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Region f.e. Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Year-Wave f.e. Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Partial R Back Docquier, Tansel, Turati Emigrants' selection and Culture April 29 th, / 11

28 Appendix Heterogeneity Across Countries (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Destination OECD OECD OECD OECD OECD OECD Macro Var. Sunnis Shiites Cont. Corr. Rule Law ln GDP Net. Religiosity Culture 0.322** 0.538*** ** 0.570*** 0.417*** (0.148) (0.143) (0.153) (0.196) (0.174) (0.128) Interaction (0.003) (0.003) (0.830) (0.389) (0.000) (1.525) Observations 27,368 27,368 24,471 24,471 27,368 27,368 Partial R Gender-egal. Culture 0.903*** * ** (0.299) (0.113) (0.351) (0.388) (0.159) (0.130) Interaction *** 0.016*** * (0.004) (0.006) (1.241) (0.815) (0.000) (2.784) Observations 25,689 25,689 24,221 24,221 25,689 25,689 Partial R We control for individual controls, region f.e. and year-wave f.e. Back Docquier, Tansel, Turati Emigrants' selection and Culture April 29 th, / 11