$530,000,000 in Regional Programming Assisting over 16,500,000 Children In 9 Countries With more than 6300 Staff

Transcription

1 EAST AFRICA EARLY WARNING REPORT SEPTEMBER 2015 $530,000,000 in Regional Programming Assisting over 16,500,000 Children In 9 Countries With more than 6300 Staff AREAS OF ALARM EL NINO REGIONAL EFFECTS ETHIOPIA DROUGHT SOUTH SUDAN CONFLICT REGIONAL BURUNDI REFUGEE CRISIS ONGOING CRISIS SOUTH SUDAN SOMALIA ETHIOPIA SITUATIONS STABLE TANZANIA RWANDA UGANDA

2 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS BURUNDI ETHIOPIA KENYA RWANDA SOMALIA INSTABILITY DROUGHT CLIMATE INDUCED SUDDEN ONSET STABLE COMPLEX S. SUDAN COMPLEX SUDAN TANZANIA UGANDA COMPLEX STABLE STABLE/LOCALIZED FOOD INSECURITY METHODOLOGY Information for this Early Warning/Early Action document is gathered from varying sources through desk top assessments, personal interviews and anecdotal understanding of humanitarian contexts throughout the region. This document is produced monthly and has been developed to provide a snap shot of important information for World Vision managers to promote and track trends relevant to their work. The main goal of this document is to facilitate World Vision manager s decision making on next steps towards promoting a response, tracking a response or closing a response. All references for information can be supplied upon request, but have not been included here due to space constraints. In general, information is gleaned from World Vision data, UNHCR, IOM, WFP, UNOCHA, UNICEF and other partners existing reports as and when appropriate.

3 BURUNDI $16.6 M USD in PROGRAMMING 188 STAFF 18 OFFICES IN 7 PROVINCES 40,048 CHILDREN ASSESSED MONTHLY INSTABILITY Nutrition Assessments from the June/July period indicate that GAM Rates are at 17.5%, while moderate acute malnutrition stands at 12.4%. The SAM rates for children under two years are at 5.2%. These are some of the worst estimates in the recent past and are set to further deteriorate in the current period. 36% of households are estimated to be food insecure and the number of people in need of food assistance is estimated at 450,000 by February The annual funding gap for nutrition interventions stands at USD 17million. School drop out rates presently stand at 8.6%; a situation exacerbated by the current political climate and the impacts of food insecurity on household roles, especially for school going children. Schools were forced to complete their annual syllabus months in advance, while there were intermittent school closures due to political tensions. Cholera and water borne disease incidences likely to increase with the onset of the rainy season. Public health system currently constrained due to policy changes and funding deficits. Situation not likely to improve soon. Slow-onset drought in some provinces has led to depressed crop conditions in most parts of the country; there is a high-level of expectation that the onset of rains in the coming month will lessen the impact of the situation on future planting seasons. Despite improved food availability during the Season B harvest period (May-June), food security remains Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in areas where ongoing civil unrest and insecurity have disrupted agricultural activities, reducing harvests and labor opportunities for poor households, particularly in Kirundo, Makamba, and Muyinga provinces. Prices remain 39 to 95 percent above the recent five-year average. Burundi is hosting 54,135 composed of Congolese (53,814 = more than 99%), Rwandese(297), Somalians (19) and others (5). These are located in four refugee camps ( Musasa, Bwagiriza, Kinama, and Kavumu) there are small numbers of urban populations in Bujumbura Because of the 2015 electoral tensions which started in April 2015, IDP numbers are expected be high in opposition areas, monitoring of internal movement is severely constrained by fears of reprisals. Current projections are at 160,000 individuals displaced, predominately with host-families. Many prominent political and military figures have fled the country fearing reprisals for their stance on the last election. The country which is relying on 52% of foreign aid to supplement the national budget and is expected to be highly reduced through potential sanctions and lessening of ODI assistance. Rainfall will be excessive in the following agro ecological regions: IMBO, MUMIRWA, BUGESERA and MOSO (West, East and northern parts of the country). Here, there may be negative impacts such as flood as well as landslides which may occur as a result of heavy rains.

4 ETHIOPIA $77.5 M USD in PROGRAMMING 1500 STAFF 68 OFFICES IN 8 PROVINCES 157,400 CHILDREN ASSESSED MONTHLY DROUGHT The food and nutritional situation is deteriorating rapidly. In a normal year, the belg (June-September) harvest marks the beginning of a decline in TFP admissions. The estimated number of children that require treatment for severe acute malnutrition (SAM) in 2015 increased from 264,515 to 302,605. The belg harvest failure in combination with the extended El Nino adversely affected about 303,300 children and they will require education in emergency supplies. The harvest failure may also exacerbate hunger and starvation which in turn will cause widespread malnutrition among school aged children. The number of severely malnourished children admitted into CMAM programme gradually increased from 18,308 in January 2015 to 31,729 in July The admission rate is expected to remain high during the second half of the year as a result of the deteriorating food security and its impact on children s nutrition status. Increased reports of measles outbreaks by 9 % since the beginning of the year. 15 M individuals will require food assistance, which does not include those covered by social safety nets (PSNP). 7.8 M individuals are covered by the PSNP. An additional 1.2 M individuals will require supplementary feeding assuming that food assistance is successfully implemented early in the year, some 1.5 million children and lactating mothers are expected to be in need. The GoE has reported that cumulative insufficient Kiremt rains are expected to affect the meher harvest and will lead to further deterioration of the food security and nutrition situation particularly in Eastern Amhara and Eastern Oromia., there is a high probability that relief food needs and malnutrition rates will double in Ethiopia hosts 728,070 refugees from S. Sudan, Somali, Eritrea and Yemen. As of 02 October 2015, the total S. Sudanese refugees in Gambella are 277,576 out of which 219,910 were registered post-15 December As of 21 September, 3,495 Asylum-seekers and refugees arrived in Ethiopia after fleeing the conflict in Yemen. There are 440,000 Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) in Ethiopia due to flooding and violent clashes over scarce resources. Pockets of insecurity remain within the country, however overall security concerns remain consistently low. The yearly rainfall trend varies from region to region. In SNNPR, erratic and irregular pattern with long dry spell periods recorded. In Amhara region and the Oromia region are severely affected by drought. Among all regions, Afar, Shinile zone and Somali region was critically affected by the drought.

5 KENYA $88 MILLION USD in PROGRAMMING Over 1000 STAFF 56 OFFICES IN 35 COUNTIES 156,658 CHILDREN ASSESED MONTHLY CLIMATE INDUCED SUDDEN ONSET Improvements in households food security was noted and is attributed to the average to above average Long rains across most parts of the high and medium potential areas and marginal agricultural livelihood zones Nutrition status improved due to the harvest of long rain crops but remained critical in Turkana (Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) percent, very critical in Mandera County (GAM percent) and deteriorated in Wajir North from poor to critical with prevalence of GAM increasing from 8.8 percent to 14.3 percent. Isiolo County also deteriorated from serious to critical. Most public schools were not operational during the month of September due to the teachers strike. This affected preparation for exams especially to candidates sitting class eight and Form four exams. The situation was handled through the courts and the teachers are back to work awaiting negotiations with the government by Dec The total number of children less than five years requiring treatment (total caseloads) in the Arid and Semi- Arid areas (ASAL) dropped to 239,446 in the LRA 2015 compared to 261,120 reported in the 2015 short rains assessment. In pastoral areas, rangeland resources have continued to become less available during the dry season, leading to the seasonal decline in livestock productivity, which seasonally reduces household incomes and food consumption. Most households remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2), except in parts of eastern Isiolo and western Wajir, which remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) due to drier than normal conditions in these areas. Food prices are stable and expected to remain so due to on-going harvests in most parts of Agro pastoral, Mixed farming and Marginal Mixed Farming Livelihoods. The long rains harvest and cross-border imports have increased food supply in markets, and maize supply is likely to continue increasing as the harvest starts in the northern Rift Valley in October. Kenya hosts approximately 600,000 refugees, mainly from Somalia and South Sudan, in the Dadaab and Kakuma camps. World Vision currently handles 225,000 refugees (100,000 in Kakuma and 125,000 in Dadaab). Influx continues from S.Sudan into Kakuma regularly with no reduction in numbers expected. No significant tensions to report that would lead to violence or destabilization. Most parts of the country experienced generally sunny and dry weather conditions during the month of September The rainfall recorded at most meteorological stations barely exceeded 20mm. Several parts of western Kenya, however, recorded substantial amounts of rainfall that was enhanced.

6 RWANDA $33.5 M M USD USD in in PROGRAMMING 300 STAFF 300 STAFF 30 OFFICES IN 17 IN DISTRICTS 17 DISTRICTS 83,632 CHILDREN ASSESSED MONTHLY STABLE Stunting in children under 5 is at 43%, Wasting in children under 5 is 3% while underweight children under 5 is at 11%. Net enrollment rate in primary education is at 96.6%, drop -out rate is 11.1% and proportion of youth who are functionally literate stands and 76% Infant mortality rate is 32 deaths per 1,000 live births, Under 5 mortality rate is at 50 deaths per 1,000 live births. Below-average June/July Season B harvests of maize, bean, cassava, and sweet potatoes in the Bugesera Cassava and parts of the Western Congo Nile Tea and Food Crop Zones has led to limited household food stocks among the poor. The October to early December lean season is anticipated to be more severe than normal. Poor households purchasing power is being constrained by depreciation in the Rwanda Franc and increased fuel and food prices. In Kigali, partners report dry bean retail prices are RWF 500 per kilogram, about 80 percent higher than the two-year average. Similarly, cassava flour prices are RWF 380 in Kigali, also well above normal levels. 144,649 refugees are hosted in Rwanda as of 31st August Of these, 50 % are from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), 49% are from Burundi and 1% of other nationalities. NIL Potential destabilization related to the current Burundi situation along shared borders is plausible. The Eastern Province and Kigali City are expected to have a near normal rainfall season with tendency to slight above normal in few places. The Western Province, Southern Province and Northern Province are expected to have normal to above normal rainfall with tendency to above normal in many places.

7 SOMALIA $60 M USD in PROGRAMMING 340 STAFF SERVING ALL 3 REGIONS COMPLEX Findings from September 2015 nutrition assessment in Guban Pastoral/Livelihood Zone indicate critical prevalence of GAM ( 22.3) among children 6-59 months and very critical levels of SAM (5.9%). The zone has experienced extremely poor rainfall during the 2014/2015 rainy season resulting in deteriorating drought conditions as of mid Recent assessment conducted in Lughaya district, Awdal region, indicated that there has been reported cases of children dropping out of school due to the drought situation. Out of the 2,150 students, 700 students had dropped out. FSNAU September 2015 assessment report, indicated that there was very low immunization coverage for both Vitamin A sup. (42.6%) and Measles vacc.(47.0%). There was also reported Alert levels of maternal nutrition seen among mothers of reproductive age. 1 in every 5 children suffer from Measles or Pneumonia According to the FSNAU Post Gu 2015 assessment, the overall GU season cereal harvest collected in Southern Somalia in July August is estimated at 96,100 metric tonnes which is lower than the five year average. In Northwest Agropastoral livelihood zone, cereal production was estimated at 11,000 tonnes representing a 63% decline compared to the five year average for 2010 to Currently up to 850,000 people across Somalia face Crises and Emergency IPC phases 3 and 4. This is a 17% increase and is attributed to; below average cereal harvests, poor rainfall; trade disruption, conflict and displacement. Most of the refugees are not in WV Somalia operational areas. However from 28 March 2015 to 23 September 2015, a total of 29,268 new arrivals had travelled from Yemen to Somalia. This includes 26,076 Somali returnees primarily from South Central regions of Somalia, 2,977 Yemeni nationals, and 215 third country nationals. The majority of people arrived by boat in Bossaso, Puntland and Berbera, Somaliland, with a small number also arriving in Mogadishu by air. Most of the IDPs in Somalia are in South Central region. WV Somalia is operational in this region targeting. According to the UNDP 2014 population estimation survey, there are approximately 1,106,751 IDPs across Somalia Conflict is more apparent in South Central Somalia compared to other regions where there are pockets of insecurity. At times project implementation is stalled because of insecurity. Somalia has two rainy seasons May- July and Oct Dec. Somalia normally receives below average rainfall in the North. Parts of Somaliland have not had adequate rainfall for the past two seasons. Gu Rains (May July) which is the primary cropping season since it is more dominant and reliable. Deyr Rains (Oct Dec), are usually shorter and have less quantity than the Gu rains. They are however beneficial in boosting water availability and regeneration of pasture.

8 S. SUDAN $69 M USD in PROGRAMMING 919 STAFF OPERATING IN 5 STATES 121,000 CHILDREN REACHED COMPLEX During the reporting period, 84% of children with severe acute malnutrition without complications admitted to outpatient therapeutic feeding program were discharged as cured while 93% of those with Moderate acute malnutrition admitted to targeted supplementary feeding programs were cured. The achievement of both OTP and TSFP program indicators are well above SPHERE thresholds of 75% cure rate. Schools facilities in the country continue to be closed in most areas except in state capitals. Children and moving with their parents to refugee settings where education is better catered for and ensured. There is a high potential for further movements out of the country over the coming months. No major health facilities are operational at this time. Current high risk for Malaria continues to rise. Infant mortality rates continue to rise in Upper Nile State with overall general health conditions assessed as virtually irrevocable. Production estimates for recently harvested first season are favorable in the Greater Equatoria region and Bahr El Gazal. while below average production has been obtained in most agro-pastoral areas of Eastern Equatoria and Upper Nile state that have been affected by scarce and erratic rains as well as by ongoing conflict. Acute food insecurity remains severe in the conflict-affected states of Unity, Jonglei, and Upper Nile where large areas remain in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), despite the seasonal shift from the lean season to the harvest period. Emergency humanitarian assistance needs remain high. S. Sudan hosts very few refugees, and is generally considered as a sending country. Neighboring countries are reporting higher than average movements into their territory as the current situation in the country remains unstable. The number of IDPs in the country continues to rise and has reached 1.64 Million people in more than 230 sites throughout the country. It is projected that displacement will continue to occur and needs will continue to rise. On August 26, Government of the Republic of South Sudan (GoRSS) signed a peace agreement that the Sudan People s Liberation Movement-In Opposition (SPLM-IO) Local and international media have reported violations of the cease fire agreement in recent days. In addition to establishing a permanent cease fire, the agreement commits the signatories to ensuring secure access to civilians in need of humanitarian assistance and protection. A developing El Nino event and pessimistic forecasts for September to December rainfall in the northern half of the country, raise the possibility of drier than average conditions affecting late maturing crops in Lakes, West Bahr-el-Ghazal and Upper Nile. Perspectives for the second season planting in the Greater Equatoria are less clear. So far the season is developing normally in some areas but continued monitoring is required.

9 SUDAN $39 M USD in PROGRAMMING 500 STAFF 3 OFFICES IN 3 STATES 566,668 CHILDREN ASSESSED MONTHLY COMPLEX In million targeted- 643,075 received emergency nutrition assistance. 668,778 children screened for Acute Malnutrition 57,524 >5 children 16,421 PLW with MAM were admitted to TSFP and 80,246 children with SAM were admitted to outpatient therapeutic programmes (OTP) across Sudan by end of July Number of children out of primary schools is 2,811,000 which represents 48% of the total number of school going age children in Sudan according to SOWC The start of the academic year in the IDP schools was challenged by shortage of space, supplies and school sanitation across Darfur states. In South Darfur 94,974 pupils currently enrolled in 86 IDP schools consisting of 863 classrooms with an average of 110 students per classroom. There is health gap specially in BN State, in particularly the areas controlled by rebels and some areas that fall in between the Gov't controlled areas and rebels controlled areas Due to less pasture, in September, livestock were already being migrated southward towards agricultural land in Gadaref, Gazeira, Kassala, and Sinar States which usually does not happen until December/January. as a result of this livestock migration crops are exposed to be accidentally destroyed or consumed by livestock which might result into a conflict between those herding cattle and the year-round residents of these states. From mid-august to mid-september 2015, the rains have been heavier which has facilitated continued planting in rain fed areas such as in S. Darfur State and BN State where up to 65% of average area was planted. However, vegetation are well below average in the surplus-producing sorghum belt in eastern and central Sudan. People caught in conflict-affected zones are the most food insecure population including IDPs and HVIs child well-being is expected to deteriorate. Reports vary as to the number of those seeking refugee status in Sudan from neighboring countries, UNHCR reports over 277,000 individuals. OCHA reported that the total number of IDPs in Sudan 3.1 million out of which 2.5 million in Darfur. In Blue Nile, No IDP movement was reported in September. The Blue Nile State HAC reported that there 40,000 IDPs in the state. South Kordofan and Darfur remain unpredictably calm. Displacement related to renewed conflicts subsequently destabilize surrounding areas who host displaced populations. As a bordering nation to South Sudan and CAR, displacement in these countries equally contribute to destabilization for the region. The delayed rainfall, rainfall shortage and intermittent dry spells that have characterized the current rainy season in Sudan have all been driven by the El Nino event. Sudan s food security is most dependent on rainfall with at least 70% of the population relying on traditional rain-fed agriculture and livestock production. According to FAO the impact of El Nino in Sudan is so far in line with regional forecasts.

10 TANZANIA $39 M USD in PROGRAMMING 500 STAFF 3 OFFICES IN 3 STATES 127,113 CHILDREN ASSESSED MONTHLY STABLE Stunting currently affects 42 per cent of under five children, and is only a two percentage points lower than it was five years ago. The burden of stunting in Tanzania ranks third in Sub-Saharan Africa, after Ethiopia and the Democratic Republic of Congo School facilities are operational. The children are following the class sessions at their respective schools. Standard seven students completed the national examination in early September, Class one enrollment for academic year 2016 will start at the end of October, The health facilities are operational and people are receiving treatments. There is outbreak of cholera at Mtinko and 12 people died of this pandemic. Currently the country is experiencing dry season in all regions. This is the normal season according to the country year calendar and no crops grown however farmers are preparing farms for the expected early rains ( i.e vuli) in the month of October. Maize and beans are steppe food in Tanzania. Maize is the main source of starch and beans is the main source of protein. In 2015 crop production in Tanzania was not good compared to 2014 harvest. Low food production caused by unreliable rainfall in 2015 during both vuli and masika season. The low harvest has triggered food price across the country and there is significant increase of food prices in all regions. The country is hosting 167,128 refugees. Of these 65,722 refugees from DRC and 104,160 refugees from Burundi. The average arrival of new refugees from Burundi is 350 individuals per day. Formerly the refugees from the two countries were hosted in Nyaruguzu camp however 4827 Burundi refugees have been relocated to Nduta. The target for Nduta is 27,250 refugees. Relocation process is going on and the plan is to relocate the remain number of Burundi refugees to other two camps of Mtendeli and Kalago. The three camps are located in Kakonko and Kibondo districts in Kigoma region. Political situation in the country is stable. The campaigns for general election in late October are going on. No internal displacement across the entire country. Tanzania s general elections are slated on 25th October. Voters will elect President, Members of Parliament and the local government. There is enhanced warming over Central eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean which is likely to persist throughout the October to December, 2015 rainfall season indicating the Presence of El Nino..The anticipated El Nino will contribute sufficient soil moisture and favor the vuli cropping season over most areas of the Lake Victoria regions, northeastern highlands, northern coast, southwestern highlands, western regions, southern coast and central parts of the country for the period covers October to December 2015.

11 UGANDA $104 USD in PROGRAMMING 725 STAFF 53 OFFICES IN 41 DISTRICTS 128,633 CHILDREN ASSESSED MONTHLY STABLE/LOCALIZED FOOD INSECURITY Due to acute food shortage in the Karamoja region. Rapid assessments indicate likely malnutrtion issues specifically for the children. In addition Infant feeding practices are still wanting. A combination of these two factors will lead to increase in malnutrition especially for children under 5. The current increased rainfall situation in some areas is affecting children in candidate classes that are sitting for final examinations. Incidences of flooding have hampered the delivery of examination papers on time and some children have failed to access examination centres in time. Measures are being put in place in affected areas to mitigate the arising impacts. There were no major disease outbreaks reported in the country during the period under review. The malaria outbreak in Northern Uganda reported in July is now under control. World Vision continues to support three districts in N.Uganda; Gulu, Kitgum and Oyam with social mobilization and anti-malarials. There is reported emergence of an as yet unspecified disease in Hoima-Bullisa cluster which is being investigated by MoH/CDC. The onset of El Nino rains is expected to contribute to disease outbreaks across the country including dysentery, malaria and cholera. In bimodal areas, there was not steady rainfall from July through September, so land preparation and planting for the second season are later than normal. Also, pasture and water availability are lower than usual in the cattle corridor. However due to the ongoing El Niño, above-average cumulative rainfall is forecast for October to December, which should lead to overall normal crop development for the second season. Bimodal areas are expected to remain at Minimal (IPC Phase 1) through December. Food security situation in Uganda is generally good due to the first season harvest. However, there still concerns in Karamoja. Prices of staple food across the country generally increased in major makerts. Most areas within Karamoja are in phase 3 (238,575) and phase 4 (56,370). Though areas cultivated were reported to have increased, crop production was generally below normal. Uganda hosts refugees from: Burundi, DRC, Somalia and S. Sudan. Refugees entering Uganda have decreased consistently over the past two months from all sending countries. There are no indications that a significant influx is pending; monitoring of both the cease fire in S. Sudan and the political uncertainty in Burundi continues. Uganda will hold Presidential elections in February 2016, preparatory activities are ongoing. There have been incidences of the police regulating campaign activities and clashes with supporters of different parties both in the Capital City- Kampala as well us upcountry towns Jinja, Mbale e.t.c. The 2015 second major rainfall season in Uganda has an increased likelihood of near normal to above normal rainfall over most areas in the country. However, some low-lying, flood-prone areas may have flash floods as the rains intensify.

12 REGIONAL CONTACTS WORLD VISION NATIONAL OFFICE HUMANITARIAN AND EMERGENCY AFFAIRS MANAGER BURUNDI Donatien Bigiraneza ETHIOPIA Getenew Zewdu KENYA Philip Ndekei (ai) RWANDA Angelot Gashumba SOMALIA Patricia Gimode SOUTH SUDAN Fred McCray SUDAN Abuzerr Abdalla TANZANIA Lukindo Hiza UGANDA Enid K. Ocaya EAST AFRICA (KE) Christopher Hoffman FUNDING PARTNERS Non-exhaustive