UKRAINE Packer Collegiate Institute

Transcription

1 UKRAINE Packer Collegiate Institute Intro: This is a new age for Ukraine. Coming from the ashes of protest and corruption, Ukraine hopes to come out a more independent nation with the aspirations of a new democracy. It will not stand for its neighbor s imperialist aggression. Russia has taken its land and has fueled the separatist chaos that continues to disrupt the peace Ukraine seeks. So Ukraine comes to this conference looking to Europe and the United States to help back their fight for a stronger democracy. Ukraine is opening its arms to the West, ready to establish more open trade especially concerning natural gas as well as continuing a path towards European Union membership. Unstable and at mercy, Ukraine still continues to fight against oppression and in defense of freedom. Key Points: 1. Removing Ukraine s oil dependency on Russia 2. Ending the conflict with the separatists, preferably through peace 3. European Union membership 4. Prevent Russian invasion 5. Regaining Crimea 6. Military support and backup from the West (in case Russia tries to re annex all of Ukraine) 7. Suppress the unrest in Donbass 8. Maintain human rights Background: Once the center of the first eastern slavic state in the 10th and 11th century, Ukraine now finds itself warding off neighbors and trying to heal its disemboweled government. During the 10th and 11th centuries when Ukraine arguably was in its prime, it was known as Kylvan Rus, the largest and most powerful state in all of continental Europe at the time. As time went on, Kylvan Rus was increasingly weakened by internal struggles and Mongol invasions. Although weakened, the cultural and religious legacy of Kylvan Rus paved the way for the strong sense of Ukrainian nationalism that we see today. It was not until the latter part of the 18th century though, that the majority of the Ukrainian ethnographic territory was absorbed by their powerful neighbor to the east, the Russian Empire. In 1917, after the fall of czarist Russia, Ukraine achieved independence. This period of independence was short lived though, coming to an end in 1920 and then repossessed by the their recharged neighbor, Soviet Russia. Shortly after Soviet

2 Russia absorbed Ukraine, they punished the Ukrainian people by putting them through forced famines in 1921 to 1922 and 1932 to 1933, which resulted in the death of eight million people. Ukraine saw the loss of millions more of its people during World War II through violence between German and Soviet forces. Ukraine did not regain independence, and this time for the long term, until the fall of the USSR in Although separated from the fallen Communist empire, democracy remained elusive because of corruption which stalled economic reform, privatization, and civil liberties. Democracy seemed a distant dream to the Ukrainians until the Orange Revolution which swept the nation in The peaceful mass protest called for the end of rigged and corrupt presidential elections and asked for an internationally monitored vote, which elected president Viktor Yushchenko. Yushchenko's successor Yanukovych rose to power after internal problems in the government, allowing him to win a rada position Ukrainian equivalent of parliament, prime minister, and then president. Yanukovych's presidency did not go unscathed by scandal and conflict. In October of 2012 Rada elections were criticized by western observers for favoring ruling party candidates, interference with media access, and harassment of opposition candidates. Beyond allegations of corruption and interference in the democratic process, widespread discontent took the nation by storm when in 2013 Yanukovych backpedaled on his agreement to enter trade and cooperation agreement with the European Union as opposed to continuing close economic ties with the Russian Union. The Ukrainian people consumed with anger and distrust, turned to protesting in Kyiv s central square for three months, culminating in the destruction of the nation s capital. Yanukovych struck back at dissenters through the use of government forces which led to all out battles between civilians and troops. Eventually, Yanukovych flees the country and seeks refuge in Russia where Putin welcomes him with open arms. In 2014, an interim Ukrainian government called for presidential elections to take place in May. Putin, hungry for more land, took advantage of the lack of leadership in Ukraine and ordered troops to invade Ukraine s Crimean Peninsula on March 1st, just one week after the overthrow in Kyiv and three weeks shy of elections. Cimmerians, Scythians, as well as Greek colonists called Crimea home. Later occupiers included the Romans, Goths, Huns, Bulgars, Khazars, among others. From 1449 to 1779, the Crimean Peninsula was a vassal state of the Ottoman empire called Crimean Khanate. In 1571, Crimean Tatars attacked Moscow leaving everything torched but the Kremlin. Unlike the late 1700s, Tatars sustained a massive slave trade with the Ottoman Empire exporting millions of slaves from Ukraine and Russia over a two hundred year period. In 1783, under the rule of Catherine the Great, Russia

3 conquered the peninsula. Eventually, during World War II, the native Crimean Tatars were forced from their homes in fear they were collaborating with Nazi forces. Most of the deportees, who made up a fifth of the peninsula s population, settled in Uzbekistan. In 1954, at the result of an internal political action by Communist Party General Secretary Khrushchev, the peninsula became a territory of the Ukrainian Soviet Republic. Following the Ukranian Revolution of 2014, the Crimean Peninsula again became the center of Russian Ukrainian politics, with its sovereignty being disputed between the two nations. At the beginning of the crisis, unmarked pro Russian and Russian forces occupied several locations. In the spring, the Supreme Council of Crimea and Sevastopol City Council adopted a declaration of independence and declared themselves the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol. Following the declaration of independence, Russia asked for a referendum to absorb Crimea into the Russian Federation. This referendum was condemned and is not recognized by the Ukrainian government, Crimea, the European Union, United States, or UN General Assembly. Although Russia withdrew its forces from the region this past December, this action has caused fighting to cease, in fact destruction and despair ensues. Most recently, a ceasefire was agreed upon at Belarus talks after a marathon of overnight negotiation. Sovereignty: Ukraine hopes to assert itself and govern its territorial holdings without the threat of a modern day imperialist country taking away land. For this reason, Ukraine is vehemently against the annexation of Crimea for it displays a frank disregard for the integrity of not only our borders, but the borders of countries around the world and may mark the beginning of a new wave of imperialism and the redrawing of geographical boundaries.. It has become clear that Russia is making a power play for the Crimean Peninsula and every satellite state should be extremely frightened and ready to take any measures necessary for protection. To ensure that neither Ukraine nor any neighboring country is in danger of this sort of hostile takeover, major sanctions should be enforced that prevent any possibility of this assertion of power in the future. The most radical of these sanctions would be the shrinking of Russia s immense land mass. The implementation of these sanctions requires cooperation and support from prominent and powerful foreign actors. These external actors may show signs of trepidation, worry about infringing on rights to freedom in the region. Security:

4 Ukraine s primary security concerns are Russian military intervention, unmarked armed militias, and protests. Russia has previously stated that they have the capability to strike at any moment and protests have not only turned aggressive but even violent. Russian supporters have taken over government buildings and cause chaos in the streets. Fighting between Ukrainian military members and unmarked soldiers is quite common in the eastern parts of Ukraine. The Ukrainian army is outmanned and outgunned against the numerous enemy forces. Separatists, armed by the Russian government, are equipped with heavy artillery and serious weaponry. Without major support from the United States and/or NATO, Ukraine will not be able to withstand for much longer. The United States has offered Ukraine airlifts, intelligence as well as other important support but has not yet been willing to offer anything lethal such as soldiers or weapons. However with the increase in violent militia outbreaks, President Obama is reconsidering that. With America s military assistance, Ukraine would stand strong against Russian forces however that is unlikely to happen. NATO has offered similar resources as the United States with exception of a newly developed Spearhead force of 5,000 soldiers which would be deployed to Ukraine in the near future. While these soldiers will certainly aid the Ukrainian efforts, it is only a slight alleviation to the greater symptoms of the Russian Ukrainian crisis. Although not the biggest threat to Ukranian security at the moment, Ukraine has experienced cyber attacks. While not officially part of the Ukrainian government, there is a Ukrainian hacker called Eugene Dokunun, who is the self proclaimed Chief Commander of the Ukrainian Cyber Army. The Ukrainian government has allocated few funds to pursuing cyber security. The lone wolf cyber militia mentioned earlier has already frozen three million in Russian assets as well as blocked over 170 PayPal accounts used to fund separatists. Furthermore, the Ukrainian Cyber Army has hacked the Russian Ministry of Interior and revealed classified information concerning Kremlin sponsored transactions for separatists in Ukraine. This is only a fraction of what this group has accomplished and is preparing to do. With the Belarus Peace Talks and Cease Fire fresh in the memories of Ukrainians, hopes for a stable and peaceful country make security a top priority for the nation. Terrorism: Terrorism in Ukraine is an extremely contentious and even ambiguous topic. Obviously, the central military conflict in the region exists between Ukrainian rebels/separatists (and their backing by Russian forces) and the

5 Ukrainian government. The most significant issue at hand is whether or not Ukrainian diplomats and officials classify the actions of rebel forces as terrorism. For example, on January 4 th of this year, a powerful bomb shook the city of Odessa, Ukraine. It was detonated on the porch of the Euro Maidan Coordination Council, which facilitates the distribution of humanitarian aid to Ukrainian soldiers fighting the Russian separatists. Although no individual was seriously hurt, the act, its intention, and subsequent implications are clear: the nature of the conflict in Ukraine is intricate. This bombing, and all other bombings like it, are especially problematic because they are done on an extremely micro level, which makes it difficult to discern who the perpetrators are. Are these ostensible acts of terrorism being carried out by unchartered rebels? Or are Putin and the Russian government financing the violence? Many within Ukraine are convinced that the funds come directly from Moscow. Vitaliy Kozhukhar, the commander of Odessa s self defense forces, for one, is convinced that many of the attacks are carried out under direct order of the Russian government. Ukrainians will have to rely on domestic and western intelligence in order to identify those who support and engage in terrorism as a means of gaining geopolitical leverage. With little military resources, Ukraine is at a crossroads to find allies who effectively support them and their values and who can help move Ukraine in a direction of progress and rejuvenation. Human Rights: In present day, Ukraine has been labeled as a free country and as a civil society. Ukraine firmly believes that all minority groups should be proved with equal opportunity regardless of their ethnic background, religious affiliation, sex, economic status, or place of residence. Citizens are increasingly taking problems into their own hands but still, Ukraine does not take complete control and does not let citizens have any jurisdiction. However, the war in eastern Ukraine has had a destructive impact on many Ukrainian citizens. The civilians have borne the brunt of this conflict, with thousands of casualties and hundreds of thousands displaced. As the war in Crimea has been prioritized by the Ukrainian government, there is little regard or concern for Human Rights throughout the country. Furthermore, Russian rebels have been stifling protests and many people have been injured or killed. Ukrainian soldiers who have surrendered to Pro Russian forces have had their basic human rights stripped from them, as they have been brutally beaten and publicly humiliated.

6 The major human rights concerns in Ukraine are ethnic and religious discrimination, and are the outcome of the destruction in eastern Ukraine. Ethnically, the slavic nation is made up mostly of Ukrainians followed by Russians, and a slew of minorities including Belarusians, Moldovans, Crimean Tatars, Bulgarians, Hungarians, Romanians, Poles, Jews, among a few others. Religiously, there are 35,000 religious organizations representing 55 denominations in the country. Originally, Ukrainian Catholics were part of the Eastern Orthodox religion but increasingly wanted to shift towards the Roman Catholic Church. Religion has sparked polarization and difference of opinion amongst Ukrainian nationals as those of the Eastern Orthodox faith who occupy most of Eastern Ukraine desire an eastern outlook, which includes closer ties with Russia. For the most part, Muslims are not contentious with the other religious groups of the nation but are worried about the consequences of Russia reclaiming Ukraine. Russia is not as tolerant as Ukraine towards Muslims. One minority group, Jews, who make up.2% of the population have actually created a small community where they have organized a Jewish Congress. The Ukrainian government is trying to promote better relationships with the Jewish communities but unfortunately there are still anti semitic sentiments and groups in Ukraine. As a result the conflict there has raised questions over whether or not Ukraine generally respects religious freedom; nevertheless, Ukraine does not have an official state religion or religious curriculums of any sort in schools. Economy: The Ukrainian economy has changed dramatically over the last half century. During Soviet times, the Ukrainian Socialist Republic's economy was relatively strong with the second highest GDP of all the Eastern Bloc countries. The state planned economy bolstered the growth of heavy industry. According the World Bank, Ukraine has the fifty first largest economy in the world but only time will tell if it will continue to grow or if it will fall flat. Due to its level of industrial and agricultural output, the Ukrainian economy has been classified as a developed economy but its history with the Soviet Union and recent mode of crisis has rendered it weak. Over the past two years economic growth has stagnated as Ukraine s GDP has not grown. Although experts predict Ukraine to recover slightly they worry this progress will not be enough to offset the damage done. Ukraine is divided into nine economic regions that have been redrawn from the three Soviet economic regions of the Ukrainian SSR. During the 1990s, a recession hit Ukrainian hard and led a to a high poverty rate. Although they recovered by 2001, as of October 2013 the Ukrainian economy is still stuck in recession.

7 The country is relatively rich in natural resources and covers twenty major industries. Industry accounted for 26% of Ukraine s GDP in In regards to trade, the Russian Federation is Ukraine s central trading partner with 25.7% exports and 32.4% imports in 2012 while the EU is the Ukraine s second closest trading allie. In order to boost the economy, Ukraine hopes to initiate more trade deals with the EU and the United States which would allow the country to be less reliant on its larger trade partner, Russia. Furthermore, Ukraine hopes to expand its industry and decrease private industry in the country. Energy: In regards to energy, Ukraine s main priority is securing its supply of oil and natural gas from other countries. Ukraine relies heavily relies heavily on Russia for its oil and gas supplies, specifically a company called Naftogaz, explaining why the country has been hesitant to officially move towards the West in regards to policy and diplomacy because Russia can threaten Ukraine by cutting off supplies. In order to make good on plans to join the EU and take a western outlook politically, Ukraine should look to the United States North Atlantic Treaty Organization as a stable resource for gas supply. Ukraine could also ask for funding from the EU or the United States to invest in research pertaining to renewable energy techniques which would make them less oil dependent and more energy efficient. Beyond conflict with its neighbors, Ukraine is also plagued by environmental issues. Currently, Ukraine has inadequate supplies of potable water, air and water pollution, deforestation, and the persisting effects of radiation contamination caused by the Chornobyl disaster of the 1980s. As a buffer between Slavic countries, the West and Russia, the Ukraine serves as a transit country through which energy flows. The Caspian and Black sea are some of the Ukraine s main resources The Caspian sea, being Ukraine s biggest oil producer and the Black Sea a producer of natural gas and oil. The Black sea lying on Russia s border provides direct access, explaining why Russia annexed Crimea. The Ukraine s natural resources include coal and uranium. These resources account for approximately 37% of its energy necessities while they get the rest from Russia. Russia and China have struck a huge $400 billion pipeline agreement where energy flows between the two countries. Russia s willingness to stop supplying Ukraine with gas makes it an unreliable energy supplier. Ukraine:

8 Pro Russian separatist movements are the biggest dangers facing peace in Ukraine today. The advent of semi successful movements has already had profoundly negative effects on the stability of the Ukrainian area, which will only continue to worsen in the upcoming years. Furthermore, Ukraine considers the Russian claiming of Crimea to be a direct threat to the country. There is no positive outcome to this conflict; either Russia's threats and attacks put Ukraine into a state worse than it already is, or Russia claims the country, only to create instability as well as controversy within the global community, as powers inevitably wage war in our territory. Russia should relinquish all claim to the Crimea or any other Ukrainian held territory. In addition to ceasing to publicly claim Ukrainian land, Russia should additionally stop arming rebels and separatists within Ukraine. What should the international communityís role in the conflict be? The United States should provide aid in the form of weapons and equipment to the Ukrainian army in order to counter Russian provided aid to their separatist fighters. Additionally they should invoke sanctions on Russia in order to pressure them to discontinue their aggression. What does it mean for ethnic Russian communities in the region? Ethnically Russian communities are welcome and equal within Ukraine. They have the right to live in their ancestral territory, however that territory is now a part of the Ukraine. Ethnically Russian persons within the Ukraine are welcome to stay provided they are non violent and accept that they are citizens of the Ukraine and not Russia. Conclusion: With a history of instability, the world waits and watches in anticipation to see what will come of the former Soviet nation. Vulnerable and at the mercy of its larger more powerful neighbor Russia, it is hard to say what is next in store for Ukraine as it tries to recover and rebuild.