RAPID DETERIORATION IN THE LABOUR MARKET

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1 RAPID DETERIORATION IN THE LABOUR MARKET 2 nd quarter 29 September 29 PARIS REGION key economic INDICATORS It has now been a constant since the end of 28: the labour market in the continued to deteriorate significantly in the 2 nd quarter of 29, with the unemployment rate reaching an average of 7.8% over the quarter as a whole (up +.5 point compared with the 1 st quarter). There are fears that this sharp increase in the unemployment rate will continue over the coming months. In addition to the concerns about employment, there are the major difficulties faced by a large majority of sectors, (including tourism, property and so on). In spite of this and although the region is still suffering from the economic crisis, some indicators were more positive; this was certainly true of business start-ups, which are still benefiting from the introduction of the French government's "auto-entrepreneur" stimulus plan for small businesses. Business failures, meanwhile, fell for the second quarter running. ECONOMIC CLIMATE IN FRANCE Whilst it is not yet possible to speak of a real recovery, the 2 nd quarter of 29 will be regarded as the point at which "technically" emerged from recession. Whilst Insee expected GDP to fall by -.6%, economic activity for the period from April to June finally came out at +.3%. The return to growth in GDP will nonetheless need to be confirmed over the coming months. The recovery is actually the result of lower prices, the government's economic recovery plan (in particular its vehicle scrappage scheme) and a sustained level of consumption. Order books are still depressed, however, and doubts remain over changes in the level of household consumption: having benefited from the drop in inflation, this has continued to increase since the beginning of the year in spite of pay restraint; the return of inflation could have an impact on household expenditure. Despite the growth in GDP, the unemployment rate again increased significantly to reach an average of 9.1% in the 2 nd quarter (i.e. almost 2.6 million people unemployed) in spite of the widespread implementation of short-time working. ECONOMIC CLIMATE IN EUROPE At a European level, according to initial estimates from Eurostat, GDP in the euro zone and the European Union effectively stagnated at -.1% -.2% in the 2 nd quarter, having fallen by 2.5% and 2.4% respectively in the 1 st. Although household consumption had a positive impact on economic activity, the lack of dynamism in trade had the opposite effect. This situation was nonetheless beneficial to the European balance of trade - which was broadly positive - insofar as the decrease in imports remained lower than the fall in exports. At the same time, the European economy continued to have a negative impact on jobs and by the end of June the unemployment rate was 9.4% in the euro zone and 8.9% in the EU (compared with 7.5% and 6.9% one year earlier). In spite of this, the 2 nd quarter will be regarded as the point at which several countries, including Germany, Portugal and Greece, "technically" emerged from recession.

2 ECONOMIC BACKGROUND NATIONAL INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT INDEX After a year of almost uninterrupted decline, the 2 nd quarter of 29 in saw a slight recovery in industrial output from May onwards and the demand for French industry ceased its dramatic fall. Factory utilisation levels remained very low, however, and throughout the quarter the industrial output index was slightly lower than in the 1 st quarter of 29 (-.8%). Over one year, the increase in May was not sufficient to limit the fall in the index given that, in the 2 nd quarter of 29, this was 15% below its level one year earlier. At a sectoral level, output was relatively stable in all sectors and it was the output in transport equipment that pushed the index up in May and June. National industrial output index Base year : in The national industrial output index has been published with a base and reference of for 25 since March 29 and according to the approved NA naming system, based on revision 2 of NAF (the French industrial classification system), the summary economic naming system (NES) associated with revision 1 now being phased out. Source: Insee PARIS REGION: KEY FIGURES ECONOMIC SITUATION IN EUROPE Source: COE-Rexecode Indicators Paris Region % Paris Region/ Area (in sq. km.) Number of municipalities Population (28 estimate - Insee) Population density per sq. km. GDP in 27 (in billions of euros - Insee) ,12 543, ,281 36, ,694, 62,16, Forecasts 29 (estimates, Septembre 29) Forecasts 21 (estimates, Septembre 29) , , Forecasts 29 (estimates, Septembre 29) Forecasts 21 (estimates, Septembre 29) GDP growth euro zone Germany Spain Italy United Kingdom euro zone Germany Spain Italy United Kingdom -3.5 Inflation GDP per capita, 27 (in euros) GDP per job, 27 (in euros) Dependent employment June 28 (Pôle Emploi Services) Unemployment rate 2 nd quarter 29 (Insee) 45,982 3,14 96,285 74,243 4,12,869 16,363, % 9.1% 2

3 DEPENDENT EMPLOYMENT Dependent employment (seasonally adjusted) % 2 nd quarter 29 year-on-year The fall in the level of dependent employment recorded in the previous quarter continued: in the 2 nd quarter of 29 it came out at -1.% year-on-year and at -.5% compared with the 1 st quarter. At the same time, across as a whole, the downturn was swifter and even more marked: employment across the country fell by 1.9% year-on-year and by.5% compared with the 1 st quarter of 29. The decrease was broadly common to all sectors of activity in the although the level of employment in the construction sector remained reasonably stable throughout the quarter Source: Pôle Emploi/Pôle Emploi Services Note: The change from revision 1 of the classification of French economic activity (NAF rev. 1, 23) to revision 2 of the classification of French economic activity (NAF rev. 2, 28) has led to back-calculation work on the dependent employment series. The statistical data have thus been modified. J O B - S E E K I N G The increase in the number of job-seekers in the continued during the 2 nd quarter of 29. At the end of June 29, the number of job-seekers in category A (469, people) was 21.1% higher than its June 28 level. As at 3 June 29, 17.6% of those seeking employment in were in the. As in the previous quarter, the scale of the increase was particularly significant in the départements in the outer suburbs of Paris, where the change over one year was over 27% in some cases (including Seine-et- Marne and Essonne). The again suffered a less rapid deterioration in employment than the rest of, where the number of job-seekers in category A increased by 24.9% compared with June 28, to reach a figure in excess of 2.5 million. Note: Job seekers registered with Pâle emploi are grouped into five different categories; of these, category A covers job seekers who are under an obligation to take positive steps to seek work and are currently unemployed % June 29 year-on-year Number of job-seekers at end-month (Category 1, seasonally adjusted) Source: DARES EMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT Unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted quarterly average, in %) Source: Insee Ile-de % 2nd quarter 29 The situation in the labour market continued to deteriorate very rapidly in the 2 nd quarter of 29. Although, from its low point in the 1 st quarter of 28, the unemployment rate in the (7.8% on average in the 2 nd quarter of 29) increased by 1.3 points, the upward trend has been particularly sustained since the last quarter of 28. It was again.5 point between the 1 st quarter and 2 nd quarter of 29. In spite of this, the increase was more moderate than across as a whole (+ 2 points since the 1 st quarter of 28) where the unemployment rate returned to the level it had reached at the beginning of 26 (9.1%). The discrepancies between one département and another increased again this quarter, insofar as the départements where unemployment rates are the lowest are those that suffered the lowest level of increase (+.4 point in Yvelines and Essonne, at 6.3% and 6.2% respectively). By contrast, the unemployment rate in Seine-Saint-Denis (1.6%) remained higher than the rate for the region as a whole by almost 3 points. 3

4 HOUSING PROPERTY DOMESTIC DEMAND PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE +4.7% Durables June 29 Year-on-year Personal consumption expenditure on manufactured goods grew slightly throughout the 2 nd quarter of 29, sustained by sales of motor vehicles (the increase across the whole of the quarter was.7%, with monthly variations of +.6% in April, -.2% in May and +1.4% in June). In respect of major consumer items, whilst motor vehicles played a particularly significant role in sustaining consumption of durable goods (+8.5% between June 28 and June 29), household goods also made a sizeable contribution (+2.2% between June 28 and June 29). In addition, consumption expenditure on textiles and leather goods continued to fall despite a recovery in June (-.1% over one year) and consumption of other manufactured goods remained relatively stable (-.6% between June 28 and June 29) Manufactures Durables Sales volume indices (seasonally adjusted, base in 25) Textiles & leather Other manufactures Source: Insee Note: volume data in the quarterly accounts are now calculated as chained volume estimates at the previous year's prices. The main benefit of this calculation is the weighting of the elementary levels that make up an aggregate (products or industries) by the most recent weightings (the previous year's prices and not year 2 prices). PRICES OF EXISTING HOMES The fall in housing property prices in the accelerated during the 2 nd quarter: having recorded falls of 1.% and 1.9% respectively between the 4 th quarter of 28 and the 1st quarter of 29, the prices of existing apartments and existing houses fell by 3.4% and 5.7%. Since prices began to fall, existing apartments (which were at their highest in the 2 nd quarter of 28) have lost 7.9% of their value and existing houses (which peaked in the 4 th quarter of 27) have dropped by 12.2%. The impact of falling prices in Paris has been more recent, with the price of apartments decreasing by 4.2% compared with the 1 st quarter, following a 2.6% drop in the previous quarter. VEHICLE REGISTRATIONS New cars Used cars Total -3.2% 2 nd quarter 29 Year-on-year New and used private car registrations in the Source: Ministry for Ecology, Energy, Sustainable Development and Town & Country Planning - SESP, Central Motor Vehicle Register Between April and June 29, 291,588 private cars were registered in the. Over the whole of the quarter, registrations again dropped year-on-year (-3.2% compared with the same period one year earlier) but the bearish pace continued to slow (the level of sales in the 2 nd quarter of 29 was in fact 1.2% higher than in the 1 st quarter of 29). Whilst they have yet to be confirmed, the effects of the recovery plan for the sector launched by the government in February (in particular the "car scrappage scheme") have certainly prompted a recovery in sales since the spring. There has also been an increase in the proportion of new cars (35.8% this quarter, when the figure generally stands between 3 and 33%). Nationwide, the pattern is very similar, with the total number of registrations falling in the 2 nd quarter of 29 by 3.8% yearon-year and increasing by 8.3% compared with the 1 st quarter of % fall in price of houses 2 nd quarter 29 - Year-on-year Changes in the prices of existing flats and houses in the (seasonally adjusted - base in 2) Prices of existing flats Prices of existing houses Source : Insee 4

5 BUSINESS START-UPS 34,556 business start-ups 2 nd quarter 29 Following the 26,314 business start-ups in the 1 st quarter of 29, 34,556 new firms were created in the during the 2 nd quarter of 29. Having already recorded an increase of 3% over one year in the 1 st quarter of 29, business start-ups in the in the 2 nd quarter came out at 74.7% higher than in the same quarter of 28. This increase over one year in the is very close to the figure for as a whole (+76.%). At the same time, compared with the previous quarter, the number of business start-ups in the increased more sharply than in the country as a whole (+31.3% compared with +2.6%) whilst, conversely, the increase in the 1 st quarter was lower in the. Services have continued to be the most dynamic sector with over 1, new businesses, representing 3% of all startups. The "education, healthcare and social welfare" and transport sectors also performed well. Business start-ups in Paris Region (seasonally adjusted) Source: Insee Ile-de COMMERCIAL PROPERTY The commercial property sector has been particularly badly affected by the economic crisis and suffered further in the 2 nd quarter of 29. Take-up of office space in the (414,321 sq.m) dropped (by almost -31% compared with the 2 nd quarter of 28). In light of the current situation, however, industry professionals see the decrease as satisfactory. Given the bearish context, Paris seems to have been less badly affected than other areas and has even benefited from the relative recovery in the mid-size niche. Average rents in the continued to fall, to 38 per sq.m, around 2% lower than the figure recorded one year earlier and in the 1 st quarter of BUSINESS FAILURES 2,572 business failures 2 nd quarter 29 With 2,572 business failures in the 2 nd quarter of 29, the saw a fall of 9.1% compared with the same quarter of 28, which confirmed the decrease recorded in the previous quarter; in addition, according to the change on a rolling-year basis, business failures in the were broadly stable (+.8%). The trend is thus significantly better than at the national level, where the number of failures is increasing both year-on-year (+11.4 %) and on a rolling-year basis (+14.3%). In spite of this optimistic note for the region as a whole, there is a contrasting picture between Paris and the inner suburbs on the one hand, and the départements in the outer suburbs on the other: although the majority of business failures were again in Paris, the number fell overall in Paris and the inner suburbs. Conversely, they increased in the other départements, particularly in Essonne and the Val-d'Oise. In sectoral terms, transport and property recorded the most significant levels of business failures, as has been the case for several quarters. Business failures in the Paris Region Source: Insee Ile-de- (crude data) ,321 sq. m. of office space marketed in the 2 nd quarter of Quarterly changes in take-up of office space and in the average rent in Paris Region Take-up (in thousands of sq.m) Average rent (in euros) * COMPANY DEMOGRAPHY Source: GIE Immostat 5

6 INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE EXTERNAL TRADE (crude CIF/FOB* data excl. military equipment, in millions of euros) Regional exports Regional imports Trade balance HOTEL TRADE Source: Customs and Indirect Taxes Directorate, Ministry of the Budget, Public Accounts and the Civil Service *CIF/FOB: Accounting method based on a consideration of import costs, insurance and freight to the French border and exports free on board to the French border. In June 29, the hotel trade in the recorded its 13 th consecutive month of falls in the occupancy rate. In the 2 nd quarter of 29, the decreases in the occupancy rate compared with the same months in 28 were 4.3 points, 6.9 points and 5.4 points in April, May and June respectively. The lower level of decrease in April was due to the fact that the Easter holidays occurred in April in all areas; whilst June is traditionally reliant on business clients, the Salon du Bourget did little other than to limit the decrease compared with June 28. The situation in the hotel trade deteriorated further compared with the 1 st quarter. Indeed, after two fairly exceptional starts to the year in 27 and 28, the occupancy rates recorded in the 1 st quarter were close to those seen in 26; rates were lower in the second quarter and within the same range as those recorded in Imports -17.1% 2 nd quarter 29 year-on-year The contraction of worldwide economic activity and the slowdown in trade have, paradoxically, contributed to the reversal of the trend in the trade deficit in the Paris region, which had been steadily deepening for several years: although it is still very significantly negative, having decreased by more than 2 billion in the 1 st quarter of 29 compared with the 4 th quarter of 28, it dropped by 7 million over the second quarter, falling from 12.7 billion to 12 billion. Exports and imports by value as declared by firms in the decreased by a similar amount in the 2 nd quarter of 29 (-17.9% and -17.1% respectively) to 13.3 and 25.3 billion euros. 78.1% hotel occupancy rate Paris Region - June 29 A I R P O R T T R A F F I C -4.9% Passenger traffic June 29 - Year-on-year National Passenger traffic (seasonally adjusted, in millions of passengers) International ,6 61,9 67,5 Hotel occupancy rates (in %, crude data) 71,8 71,7 78,1 January February March April May June July August September October November December Source: Insee - Tourism Department (coverage: to 4-star luxury) The trend in passenger traffic at the Paris airports has improved slightly since April. Although results for the 2 nd quarter continued to show a decline, the percentages were lower than in the 1 st quarter: -4.5% in April, -5.3% in May and -4.9% in June. The falls in passenger numbers affected both domestic and international flights, although in overall terms long-haul traffic held up better. Initial results for the summer have confirmed the slowdown in the decline, however a complete reversal of the trend is still very much a hypothetical question and could be very severely affected in the event of a swine-flu pandemic. Source: Aéroports de Paris 6

7 INDUSTRY Production expected to increase Whilst April continued the lacklustre trend of previous quarters, industrial activity in the stabilised in May and June. In spite of this, the utilisation rate for production capacity remained significantly lower than its longterm average. Order books began to look healthier again but remained at low levels. The best performance came from automobile and food processing industries; conversely, activity in the semifinished products and capital goods sectors continued to fall. In the short term, business leaders anticipate an increase in production volumes, which could halt the decline in the size of the industrial workforce in the. BUILDING AND CIVIL ENGINEERING Slowdown confirmed In overall terms the anticipated slowdown was confirmed in the building and civil engineering sector, although order books are reasonable. The sharpest decrease over the quarter came in the second-fix trades. In addition, the relative stability in order books can be explained by agreed reductions in quoted prices. The number of people working in the sector fell slightly and this trend is expected to continue over the coming months. WHOLESALE TRADE Stabilisation... at a very low level Following the marked decline in activity over the early part of the year, there is a trend towards stabilisation but at a very low level. Order books have remained relatively empty, although the fall in the number of orders taken has become less pronounced. The size of the workforce was cut over the quarter and further job losses are expected in the wholesale pharmaceutical products and computer equipment trade. Expectations for this sector are the most pessimistic, whilst on average prospects are looking slightly better for the next few months. SECTOR ANALYSIS MARKET SERVICES Fall in overall demand Activity in market services stabilised at a low level during the 2nd quarter, as a result of both a sharp drop in overall demand for technical engineering and temporary work, and a marked decrease in foreign demand for road freight services. In spite of this, overall cash-flow is seen as healthy. Further staff cutbacks have been made and are expected to continue, particularly in vehicle rentals, transport and temporary work. Activity is expected to stabilise in the near future. Source These results are taken from the business climate survey carried out by the Paris Ile-de- Regional Office of the Banque de and are based on a representative sample of businesses in the main sectors of the regional economy.(http: //inbdf/fr/stat_conjoncture/conjonc/idfr.htm). 7

8 FOREIGN TRADE IN THE PARIS REGION New increase in the trade deficit in the in 28 The level of foreign trade in the increased further in 28. Exports from the capital region increased by 2.75 billion euros, up +4.5% compared with 27, whilst regional imports increased by 4.1 billion euros, generating a relative change of +3.5%. Given the greater increase in the value of imports, the trade deficit in the deepened further in 28 to reach 56.3 billion euros, an increase of 2.4% compared with 27. Level of foreign trade in the (in millions of euros) European union Asia America Europe excluding EU Near and Middle East Africa Oceania Miscellaneous* Imports Exports * the "miscellaneous" category includes the French overseas territories (Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon, Wallis et Futuna, etc.) and territories such as Antarctica, Bouvet Island, the southern Sandwich Islands, etc. In relative terms, exports increased more than imports (+4.5% compared with +3.5%), generating an improvement of.5 point in the coverage rate for the (ratio of exports to imports). This remains low, however (53.%) compared with the national coverage rate (85.4%). Trade between the and foreign countries in 28 confirmed the European Union as the capital region's principal partner. In fact, 47.5% of exports from the Paris region went to EU Member States and 61.9% of imports came from the same countries. Outside the European Union, exports were scattered across different regions of the world: America (14.%), Asia (12.1%), Africa (1.5%), non-eu European countries (8.4%) and the Near and Middle East (6.1%). Imports into the, however, were much more concentrated: in the main they came from the European Union and Asia (2.7%), with other regions in the world representing just 17.4%. The result of the scale of imports from European Union Member States and Asia is the high level of the trade deficit between the and the European Union (-42.9 billion euros) and the and Asia (-16.7 billion euros). Further information: "Foreign trade in the : Results 28" (in French), study carried out by CROCIS/CCIP, CRCI Paris - Ile-de and the Inter-regional Customs Directorate for the, available soon for download from "Foreign trade" section on page 6 of this document. QUARTERLY FOCUS If you wish to suscribe to the Paris Region Key Economic Indicators, please contact: prkei@paris-region.com Find economic data on Paris Region as well as this document on the CROCIS, CCIP and PREDA websites: The Regional Development Agency is committed to generating businesses and jobs in the Paris Region. - Seeking out projects and bringing them into the region, assisting companies with key projects, sometimes in situations of economic change - Promoting and expanding the economic and technological influence of the Paris Region internationally - Helping to put together an attractive regional package for the long term CROCIS analyses important economic changes in the Paris Region and its administrative zones. CROCIS (Regional Survey Centre for Commerce, Industry and Services) of the Chamber of Commerce of Paris gathers and processes key structural data and data on the economic climate enabling it to identify and analyse economic developments in the Paris Region. Julie VEAUTE for PREDA Strategic Unit for Sustainable Regional Development Economic and Regional Information Center +33 () jveaute@paris-region.com 3 rue des Saussaies PARIS Mickaël LE PRIOL for CCIP Regional Economic Analysis Centre CROCIS +33 () mlepriol@ccip.fr 27 avenue de Friedland PARIS Publication Managers: Pierre TROUILLET (CCIP) - Denis TERSEN (PREDA) Editors-in-chief: Jean-Louis SCARINGELLA (CCIP) - Vincent GOLLAIN (PREDA) Design and page-setting: Stéphanie CORNEBOIS (CROCIS/CCIP) Translation : Cabinet Iain WHYTE Reproduction authorised on the express condition that the source is mentioned Mandatory deposit: Septembre 29 - ISSN: Recycled paper 8