Pennsylvania Republican Presidential Primary Poll 4/25/16. Sponsor(s) Fox 29 Philadelphia WTXF. Target Population

Transcription

1 Sponsor(s) Target Population Sampling Method Fox 29 Philadelphia WTXF Pennsylvania; likely presidential primary voters; Republicans Blended sample; mixed mode: Likely Republican primary voters were selected at random from a list of registered voters. Only voters determined likely to participate in the 2016 Pennsylvania Republican primary were included in the sample. Landline: registered voters were contacted on the evenings of April 22 nd and April 24 th, 2016 using an interactive voice response system. Mobile: registered voters were contacted on the evenings of April 22 nd and April 24 th, 2016 on their mobile devices. Respondents answered an identical survey in visual form. Weighting Two questions served as selection variables. The first question asked whether the respondent plans to vote in the primary on April 26 th ; all responses other than definitely, considering, or voted absentee were excluded from the dataset. Mobile respondents and respondents who are considering voting were then asked if they knew where their primary will be held (e.g. church, school); all responses of I am unsure were excluded from the dataset. The poll was weighted for age, race, gender, and region using propensity scores. Weighting benchmarks were determined using a calculation of historic primary voter turnout, external analysis, and internal projections. Total Number of Respondents 1050 (weighted) Margin of Error ±3.0% (95% confidence)

2 1) How likely are you to vote in the 2016 Pennsylvania Republican primary on Tuesday, April 26 th to determine the Republican nominee for president? a) I will definitely vote b) I am considering voting c) I have already voted absentee d) I have not decided, or I do not plan on voting [EXCLUDED] Likely Definitely Considering Absentee 8.7 2) [IF Q1 = B OR MOBILE] Where is your voting location? a) At a school b) At a church c) At a fire house d) At a community center or government building e) Other f) I am unsure [EXCLUDED] Location School Church Fire House Community Center Other Total

3 3) If the 2016 Pennsylvania Primary to determine the Republican nominee for President were held today, for whom would you vote? a) Ted Cruz b) John Kasich c) Donald Trump d) Undecided Presidential Cruz Kasich Trump Undecided ) What is your age? a) b) c) d) 65+ Age

4 5) What is your race/ethnicity? a) White b) African-American c) Hispanic or Latino d) Other Race White African - American Hispanic / Latino Other ) What is your gender? a) Male b) Female Gender Male Female ) How would you describe your political ideology? a) Very conservative b) Somewhat conservative c) Moderate d) Somewhat liberal e) Very liberal f) Unsure Ideology V Cons Swt Cons Moderate Swt Liberal V Liberal 4.4 Unsure

5 8) Region a) Metro Philadelphia and Southeastern Pennsylvania b) Eastern Pennsylvania, such as Hallstead, Scranton, Reading, and Allentown c) North Central Pennsylvania, such as Warren, Clarion, Williamsport, and Orwell d) South Central Pennsylvania, such as Punxsutawney, Somerset, Harrisburg, Lancaster, and Berwick e) Northwest Pennsylvania, such as Erie, Knox, and Neshannock Falls f) Southwest Pennsylvania, such as Pittsburgh, Ellwood City, and Uniontown Region Philadelphia Metro Eastern PA N Central PA S Central PA NW PA Pittsburgh Metro ) Collection Mode a) Landline b) Mobile Collection Mode Landline Mobile

6 Likely Definitely Considering Absentee % % % Likely Definitely 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% Considering 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% Absentee 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Presidential Cruz 29.1% 6.7% 0.0% Kasich 19.3% 21.1% 0.0% Trump 47.1% 60.9% 100.0% Undecided 4.5% 11.3% 0.0% Age % 11.8% 0.0% % 10.7% 0.0% % 30.7% 91.6% % 46.8% 8.4% Race White 95.9% 98.4% 100.0% African - American 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% Hispanic / Latino 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% Other 2.0% 1.6% 0.0% Gender Male 51.1% 45.1% 72.3% Female 48.9% 54.9% 27.7% Ideology V Cons 41.3% 37.8% 20.4% Swt Cons 37.2% 38.8% 67.7% Moderate 15.6% 11.0% 11.9% Swt Liberal 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% V Liberal.3% 2.7% 0.0% Unsure 3.3% 9.7% 0.0% Region Philadelphia Metro 21.8% 27.5% 15.8% Eastern PA 14.0% 21.7% 0.0% N Central PA 6.0% 6.9% 12.0% S Central PA 35.5% 18.6% 32.2% NW PA 5.9% 8.6% 20.3% Pittsburgh Metro 16.9% 16.8% 19.7% Collection Mode Landline 87.8% 82.9% 100.0% Mobile 12.2% 17.1% 0.0%

7 Presidential Cruz Kasich Trump Undecided % % % % Likely Definitely 99.3% 96.7% 94.7% 92.8% Considering.7% 3.3% 3.8% 7.2% Absentee 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% Presidential Cruz 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Kasich 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% Trump 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% Undecided 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Age % 3.9% 4.5% 0.0% % 8.2% 14.9% 12.6% % 42.2% 43.6% 47.3% % 45.7% 37.0% 40.1% Race White 96.6% 98.7% 94.6% 95.9% African - American.9%.4% 1.2% 1.0% Hispanic / Latino.3% 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% Other 2.1%.9% 2.2% 3.1% Gender Male 57.5% 48.1% 49.6% 39.1% Female 42.5% 51.9% 50.4% 60.9% Ideology V Cons 61.6% 23.3% 36.1% 41.0% Swt Cons 29.3% 43.2% 41.3% 23.1% Moderate 5.4% 24.2% 17.7% 17.1% Swt Liberal.5% 6.3% 1.2% 4.3% V Liberal 0.0%.3%.7% 0.0% Unsure 3.2% 2.6% 2.9% 14.5% Region Philadelphia Metro 19.4% 28.5% 21.5% 15.4% Eastern PA 12.9% 12.0% 15.7% 12.8% N Central PA 5.1% 4.6% 7.3% 4.3% S Central PA 41.0% 28.6% 32.6% 48.8% NW PA 5.2% 6.3% 6.4% 6.1% Pittsburgh Metro 16.5% 19.9% 16.4% 12.7% Collection Mode Landline 88.7% 93.7% 84.8% 89.3% Mobile 11.3% 6.3% 15.2% 10.7%

8 Age % % % % Likely Definitely 92.9% 97.4% 96.5% 96.2% Considering 7.1% 2.6% 2.0% 3.7% Absentee 0.0% 0.0% 1.5%.2% Presidential Cruz 41.4% 22.6% 30.8% 25.3% Kasich 14.9% 13.2% 18.0% 23.1% Trump 43.6% 59.4% 46.3% 46.7% Undecided 0.0% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% Age % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% % 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% % 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% % 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Race White 93.2% 93.2% 95.7% 97.6% African - American 5.8% 1.1%.8%.5% Hispanic / Latino 0.0% 3.4% 1.3% 0.0% Other.9% 2.2% 2.1% 1.9% Gender Male 67.2% 48.9% 52.5% 47.9% Female 32.8% 51.1% 47.5% 52.1% Ideology V Cons 48.3% 29.8% 41.9% 42.6% Swt Cons 30.5% 41.0% 40.9% 33.2% Moderate 16.9% 22.8% 13.7% 15.1% Swt Liberal 0.0% 2.0% 1.1% 3.7% V Liberal.9% 1.5% 0.0%.5% Unsure 3.4% 3.0% 2.3% 5.0% Region Philadelphia Metro 17.5% 13.7% 22.7% 24.3% Eastern PA 22.6% 10.7% 15.5% 12.4% N Central PA 5.8% 5.9% 6.7% 5.3% S Central PA 31.7% 36.4% 34.2% 35.9% NW PA 8.1% 9.1% 5.2% 5.7% Pittsburgh Metro 14.3% 24.3% 15.7% 16.4% Collection Mode Landline 34.0% 34.2% 97.9% 99.7% Mobile 66.0% 65.8% 2.1%.3%

9 Race White African - American Hispanic / Latino Other % % % % Likely Definitely 96.2% 100.0% 100.0% 97.6% Considering 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.4% Absentee.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Presidential Cruz 28.4% 27.7% 8.6% 30.2% Kasich 19.8% 7.9% 0.0% 8.6% Trump 47.2% 59.5% 91.4% 54.0% Undecided 4.7% 4.9% 0.0% 7.2% Age % 30.2% 0.0% 2.4% % 14.3% 40.1% 13.6% % 37.1% 59.9% 48.0% % 18.4% 0.0% 36.1% Race White 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% African - American 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% Hispanic / Latino 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% Other 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Gender Male 51.2% 33.1% 47.8% 52.2% Female 48.8% 66.9% 52.2% 47.8% Ideology V Cons 41.8% 21.5% 15.0% 30.6% Swt Cons 37.3% 44.6% 10.6% 55.3% Moderate 15.2% 21.7% 48.6% 7.5% Swt Liberal 2.0% 7.5% 8.6% 4.7% V Liberal.3% 4.7% 8.6% 0.0% Unsure 3.5% 0.0% 8.5% 1.9% Region Philadelphia Metro 21.8% 33.6% 45.5% 13.4% Eastern PA 14.0% 7.5% 21.5% 16.8% N Central PA 6.0% 6.3% 5.0% 6.5% S Central PA 34.9% 45.4% 17.4% 43.7% NW PA 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% Pittsburgh Metro 17.1% 7.2% 10.6% 17.2% Collection Mode Landline 87.6% 93.7% 93.5% 91.6% Mobile 12.4% 6.3% 6.5% 8.4%

10 Male Gender Female % % Likely Definitely 96.4% 96.3% Considering 2.6% 3.3% Absentee 1.0%.4% Presidential Cruz 31.8% 24.5% Kasich 18.1% 20.4% Trump 46.5% 49.3% Undecided 3.6% 5.8% Age % 3.3% % 12.5% % 43.7% % 40.4% Race White 96.4% 95.7% African - American.6% 1.3% Hispanic / Latino 1.0% 1.1% Other 2.0% 1.9% Gender Male 100.0% 0.0% Female 0.0% 100.0% Ideology V Cons 45.8% 36.2% Swt Cons 35.0% 40.0% Moderate 14.0% 17.0% Swt Liberal 1.9% 2.4% V Liberal.3%.5% Unsure 2.9% 4.0% Region Philadelphia Metro 21.6% 22.3% Eastern PA 16.5% 11.6% N Central PA 6.3% 5.7% S Central PA 34.3% 35.7% NW PA 6.4% 5.7% Pittsburgh Metro 14.9% 19.0% Collection Mode Landline 86.7% 88.9% Mobile 13.3% 11.1%

11 Ideology V Cons Swt Cons Moderate Swt Liberal V Liberal Unsure % % % % % % Likely Definitely 96.9% 95.6% 97.3% 100.0% 80.3% 91.7% Considering 2.7% 3.1% 2.1% 0.0% 19.7% 8.3% Absentee.4% 1.3%.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Presidential Cruz 42.3% 22.1% 9.9% 6.9% 0.0% 25.9% Kasich 10.9% 22.2% 30.1% 56.3% 14.3% 14.5% Trump 42.1% 52.8% 54.8% 27.4% 85.7% 40.0% Undecided 4.7% 2.9% 5.2% 9.4% 0.0% 19.6% Age % 4.0% 5.4% 0.0% 11.1% 4.8% % 13.1% 17.7% 11.1% 43.5% 10.3% % 49.2% 39.9% 24.0% 0.0% 30.3% % 33.7% 37.0% 64.9% 45.4% 54.6% Race White 97.6% 95.6% 94.5% 88.2% 67.2% 96.4% African - American.5% 1.1% 1.3% 3.4% 11.1% 0.0% Hispanic / Latino.4%.3% 3.2% 4.1% 21.7% 2.5% Other 1.5% 2.9% 1.0% 4.3% 0.0% 1.1% Gender Male 56.9% 47.8% 46.2% 45.6% 41.5% 43.1% Female 43.1% 52.2% 53.8% 54.4% 58.5% 56.9% Ideology V Cons 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Region Collection Mode Swt Cons 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Moderate 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Swt Liberal 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% V Liberal 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% Unsure 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Philadelphia Metro 18.2% 24.5% 23.0% 38.0% 52.5% 21.6% Eastern PA 13.5% 15.4% 12.5% 11.7% 11.4% 16.1% N Central PA 5.9% 5.8% 6.0% 3.3% 21.8% 9.7% S Central PA 35.7% 33.9% 38.2% 26.0% 0.0% 32.7% NW PA 7.8% 4.1% 7.4% 5.1% 0.0% 1.3% Pittsburgh Metro 18.9% 16.4% 12.9% 15.9% 14.3% 18.5% Landline 89.7% 88.0% 81.9% 100.0% 66.8% 84.8% Mobile 10.3% 12.0% 18.1% 0.0% 33.2% 15.2%

12 Region Philadelphia Metro Eastern PA N Central PA S Central PA NW PA Pittsburgh Metro % % % % % % Likely Definitely 95.8% 95.4% 95.2% 97.8% 93.4% 96.2% Considering 3.7% 4.6% 3.4% 1.6% 4.2% 2.9% Absentee.5% 0.0% 1.4%.7% 2.4%.8% Presidential Cruz 24.9% 25.9% 23.7% 33.1% 24.3% 27.4% Kasich 25.0% 16.4% 14.8% 15.7% 20.1% 22.6% Trump 46.9% 53.4% 58.2% 44.7% 50.9% 46.5% Undecided 3.3% 4.2% 3.3% 6.5% 4.7% 3.5% Age % 8.0% 4.8% 4.5% 6.7% 4.2% % 9.1% 11.7% 12.5% 18.1% 17.2% % 49.6% 50.1% 44.0% 39.2% 41.8% % 33.4% 33.4% 39.0% 36.1% 36.7% Race White 95.2% 95.6% 96.0% 95.8% 99.2% 96.9% African - American 1.5%.5% 1.0% 1.2% 0.0%.4% Hispanic / Latino 2.1% 1.5%.8%.5% 0.0%.6% Other 1.2% 2.4% 2.1% 2.5%.8% 2.0% Gender Male 50.3% 59.7% 53.5% 50.0% 53.9% 45.0% Female 49.7% 40.3% 46.5% 50.0% 46.1% 55.0% Ideology V Cons 34.0% 39.3% 40.4% 41.9% 53.2% 45.9% Region Collection Mode Swt Cons 41.7% 40.8% 36.1% 36.3% 25.4% 36.2% Moderate 16.2% 13.8% 15.3% 16.9% 18.9% 11.8% Swt Liberal 3.7% 1.8% 1.2% 1.6% 1.8% 2.0% V Liberal 1.0%.3% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0%.3% Unsure 3.4% 4.0% 5.6% 3.2%.8% 3.8% Philadelphia Metro 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Eastern PA 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N Central PA 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% S Central PA 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% NW PA 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% Pittsburgh Metro 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Landline 97.0% 85.5% 85.8% 88.1% 78.2% 81.3% Mobile 3.0% 14.5% 14.2% 11.9% 21.8% 18.7%

13 Landline Collection Mode Mobile % % Likely Definitely 96.4% 95.9% Considering 2.8% 4.1% Absentee.8% 0.0% Presidential Cruz 28.5% 26.2% Kasich 20.5% 9.9% Trump 46.2% 59.8% Undecided 4.7% 4.1% Age % 26.9% % 64.7% % 7.6% %.9% Race White 95.8% 97.6% African - American 1.0%.5% Hispanic / Latino 1.1%.5% Other 2.1% 1.4% Gender Male 50.4% 55.4% Female 49.6% 44.6% Ideology V Cons 41.9% 34.7% Swt Cons 37.5% 36.9% Moderate 14.4% 23.0% Swt Liberal 2.4% 0.0% V Liberal.3% 1.1% Unsure 3.3% 4.3% Region Philadelphia Metro 24.3% 5.3% Eastern PA 13.7% 16.8% N Central PA 5.9% 7.0% S Central PA 35.1% 34.2% NW PA 5.4% 10.8% Pittsburgh Metro 15.7% 25.9% Collection Mode Landline 100.0% 0.0% Mobile 0.0% 100.0%