Women s March Austin, Texas. Report Analysis

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1 Women s March Austin, Texas Report Analysis January 2017 Completed by: Bert Bruyninckx, Eric Kant, Jade Patel and Marc Tubee 1

2 Contents Contents Summary Limitations Approach Timeline, Route and Areas Timeline Route Areas Texas State Capitol Congress Avenue Crowd Estimation for the Capitol Building Area Areas and Density Calculation Comparison with Simulation Crowd Estimation on Route (based on the video) Methodology Number of People Taking the Turn Density on Route Estimated Attendance Figures References/Resources

3 1 Summary The report analysis focused on the Women s March Austin, Texas that took place on Saturday the 21 st of January The objective was to calculate the overall attendance figure located around The Texas State Capitol Building and Congress Avenue throughout the duration of the march. Due to the poor quality of resources, defining the 'overall' attendance was impossible. However, we focused on one picture and video that we felt most represented the crowd attendance of the march. This study was commissioned by Mr. Marty Toohey, a reporter with the Austin American- Statesman, and completed by Bert Bruyninckx, Eric Kant, Jade Patel and Marc Tubee, MSc Crowd Safety and Risk Analysis students from Manchester Metropolitan University. The study consisted of four elements: timeframe of the march, areas, routes and density. These elements allowed insight into the duration, crowd density, space used and the attendance figure. All resource materials were obtained from online sources or received from Mr. Toohey see Chapter 6 for further reference. As a first conclusion, we estimated the number of people gathering in front of the Capitol building, as conveyed in the studied photograph. Secondly, the number of people of in the video was assessed. The combined number of people we can see taking the turn created the estimated attendance of the march to be: 52,143. 3

4 2 Limitations Throughout the study, the main limitation was finding good quality photographic and video resources to aid with the analysis. Furthermore, it has proven to be difficult to ascertain the time order, preventing a definitive timeline and hindering with an understanding into density. The overall poor photographic resolution did not allow for a detailed analysis. The available video footage is cut short or low quality. However, this was overcome through intensive group discussion and resources: YouTube clips, Google images, social media and related articles etc. 3 Approach We decided to work with one partiular picture and video. We were able to define the number of people in the picture and the video. These numers do not reflect the overall attendance of the event but allow insight. First, we set up a timeline from the available footage and defined the areas based on the picture, placing them in time and space. This allowed us to interpret the crowd within the framework of the event, assembly, march or re-assembly. Once the resources were put in time and space, we analysed the footage to define the number of people conveyed. This was done through comparison and calculations of flow rate and density. 4 Timeline, Route and Areas 4.1 Timeline The march began at approximately 12:00 (pm) and the main event was ongoing until 16:00. The imagery used to create the timeline has been gathered from numerous sources conveying different angles of Congress Avenue and the Texas State Capitol Building. These photographs, although often without reliable timestamps, provided a rough timescale. This allowed a forecast into the overall objective. The suggested timeline can be conveyed below in Diagram 1, created by Eric Kant & Jade Patel sourced from (KXAN News, 2017), (Zhang, 2017). 4

The exact main route was: Texas State Capitol Congress Ave W 6 th St Lavaca St College Ave Texas State

5 Diagram 1 Timeline 4.2 Route The march starts and ends at the same location, Texas State Capitol. This is prominent when focusing on video footage. The exact main route was: Texas State Capitol Congress Ave W 6 th St Lavaca St College Ave Texas State Capitol. Diagram 2 shows the route in detail. Identifying the route and its direction helped place footage in time and space and showed the analyzed picture and video were relevant. 5

6 Diagram 2 Route (Created by Marc Tubee) 6

7 4.3 Areas Texas State Capitol The Texas State Capitol area was broken down into 20 different sections, based on the visual difference in crowd density. For each area, the numbers were based from the Google Maps footage, with a 10% margin (infranstructures, trees etc.). The table below shows the area breakdown complemented with densties (sqaure metre). Nr. Name Area measured (m²) (Google Maps) Area Downsize (10% margin) 1 01 Congress Av. Park Front of Capitol Capitol west West of Congress Av West of Congress Av West of Congress Av West of Congress Av West of Congress Av West of Congress Av West of Congress Av West of Congress Av Capitol East Capitol East East of Congress Av East of Congress Av East of Congress Av East of Congress Av East of Congress Av East of Congress Av W 11th Street E 11th Street Diagram 3 Capitol areas and their size (Created by Bert Bruyninckx), based on Google Maps. 7

8 4.3.2 Congress Avenue Congress Avenue leads directly to the Texas State Capitol and was the main route for the march. Due to the infrequency of the photographs and the video research, it was hard to determine the density in accordance to the timeframe. Based on the video, we could convey this particular section. Diagram 4 shows this part of the march. Diagram 4 Assessed part of the route based on the video (Created by Marc Tubee) The photograph conveys the walkways were not used throughout the duration of the march. When calculating the square metres of the road used, this was incorporated. 8

9 Congress Avenue W 6th Street 9

Lavaca Street Section Area (m²) Congress Avenue (partly) 10,439 W 6 th Street 3,413 Lavaca Street: 6,711 Total 20,564 5 Crowd Estimation for the Capitol Building Area 5.

10 Lavaca Street Section Area (m²) Congress Avenue (partly) 10,439 W 6 th Street 3,413 Lavaca Street: 6,711 Total 20,564 5 Crowd Estimation for the Capitol Building Area 5.1 Areas and Density To assess the crowd at the Texas State Capitol Building in the assembly phase we used one photograph as conveyed in Diagram 5. The photograph has a time and date stamp showing 21/01/ :59. The orientation of the view, the shadows and the fact that the sun is not in the photograph confirms the time stamp. The Texas State Capitol photograph is showed below. 10

Diagram 5 Capitol Picture (Photo by Mike Holp, provided by Mr. Toohey) Based on this photograph different, colour coded, density areas were defined accordingly to the scale as shown below.

11 Diagram 5 Capitol Picture (Photo by Mike Holp, provided by Mr. Toohey) Based on this photograph different, colour coded, density areas were defined accordingly to the scale as shown below. Colour Density (ped/m²) White 0 Blue 0.33 Green 0.43 yellow 0.72 Orange 1.08 Red 2.17 Purple 3 Dark Blue 3.5 Brown 4 Black 4.5 The photograph below shows the areas with their colour code. 11

12 Diagram 6 Google Maps Image 12

13 5.2 Calculation Based on the colour code and the downsized area, the number of people can be calculated. The table below shows the resulting values and a total of 52,143 people in the Texas State Capitol building photograph. NR Colour Density (p/m²) Number of People 1 Purple Red Red Purple yellow Orange Blue yellow Blue Red Blue Red Red Purple yellow Purple Red yellow Blue Purple Purple TOTAL

14 5.3 Comparison with Simulation The results were entered into a crowd simulation software titled Pedestrian Dynamics, to compare results with the original picture (Diagrams 7 and 8). Diagram 7 Created by Bert Bruyninckx 14

15 Diagram 8- Created by Bert Bruyninckx 15

16 6 Crowd Estimation on Route (based on the video) 6.1 Methodology To calculate the number of people on route, we used the video to define the average density within the moving crowd. This density and according Level of Service, as defined by Fruin, is used to determine the crowd flow. This was then transferred into Google Maps and analysed using various tools. 6.2 Number of People Taking the Turn The flow analysis taken from the video, allowed for the calculation of the number of people we saw taking the turn. This number was then combined with a calculation of the people on the streets beyond the turn. We could see in the video that the crowd has already reached 9 th street. 6.3 Density on Route Congress Avenue was estimated at 0.7 people per square metre: therefore, we can estimate there were at least 14,395 people passed through this area. This does not allow an accurate forecast of how many people passed through or the actual length of the march but allows an insight into the presumed density. The information was based from the available photographs, hence the focused area. The density on the route areas was calculated through the photography gathered from the march. This allowed a visual of crowd build-up in specific areas, aiding with assessing the overall attendance. The areas outside the Texas State Capitol building (20) and Congress Avenue (5) were broken down and colour coordinated (Diagram 9 and 10), dependant on density (m2). The colours were based around Fruin s Level Of Service (Diagram 11) to allow a comparable and analytical approach to assessing the overall attendance. 16

17 Diagram 9 Created by Jade Patel Diagram 10 - Created by Jade Patel 17

FRUIN DATA Density Density Space Flow Rate Av. Speed ped/m² ped/m² m²/ped ped/min/m m/s Color Code Colour upper average lower 1 White 0 White 1 A 2 Blue 0.33 0.37 Blue 2 LOS B 3 Green 0.43 0.43 0.37 0.

18 FRUIN DATA Density Density Space Flow Rate Av. Speed ped/m² ped/m² m²/ped ped/min/m m/s Color Code Colour upper average lower 1 White 0 White 1 A 2 Blue Blue 2 LOS B 3 Green Green 3 C 4 yellow yellow 4 D 5 Orange Orange 5 E 6 Red Red 6 F 7 Purple 3 Purple 7 G 8 Dark Blue 4 Dark Blue 8 H 9 Brown 5 Brown 9 I 10 Black 6 Black 10 Diagram 11 - Created by Bert Bruyninckx sourced from (Still,2016) Fruin s Level Of Service suggests the flow rate to be between 33 and 49 people per minute per metre, equalling the average of: 41 people per metre per minute. When applying this to the North Congress Avenue (Diagram 12): Diagram 12 - Width: 17.7 metres - Created by Marc Tubee 18

19 this suggests: 17.7 * 41 = 726 persons per minute on Congress Avenue. When leaving the corner of Congress Avenue to 6 th Street the area measures at 10,124 square metres. The number of people we can estimate beyond this point is The total number of people conveyed in the 43 minutes video clip increases, suggesting 31,205 people pass through the corner of Congress Avenue and 6 th Street. 7 Estimated Attendance Figures Throughout the study, the resources available were limited, therefore the focus of the calculations were based around one main photograph. This indicates a discrepancy within the results: more/less people may have attended but not captured within the photograph as well as the time being unknown. This may impact on the density (beginning in comparison to the end), equalling in a differentiation of the final attendance figure. Congress Avenue was assessed using multiple online photographs and video footage, but has the same discrepancy of more/less people who may have attended but not been captured. The overall figure calculated through the width and flow rates, estimates 37,212 people. When compiling the results from the Texas State Capitol and Congress Avenue, the overall attendance is averaged at: 52,

20 8 References/Resources Eleanor, H. (2017). Women s March Austin 2017/ VLOG/ Hannah Eleanor. [Video]. Available at: [Accessed Date: Tuesday 24 th of January 2017]. KXAN. (2017). Aerial view of the Women s March in Austin. [Video]. Available at: [Accessed Date: Tuesday 24 th of January 2017]. KXAN. (2017). 50,000 participate in Women s March on Austin. [Video]. Available at: [Accessed Date: Tuesday 24 th of January 2017]. KXAN. (2017). Women's March moving through downtown Austin. [Video] Available at: [Accessed Date: Tuesday 24 th of January 2017]. KXAN NEWS. (2017). Online Image. [image] Available at: [Accessed Date: Tuesday 24th of January 2017]. Statesman, A. (2017). 360-degree view of Women s March on Austin. [Video]. Available at: [Accessed Date: Tuesday 24 th of January 2017]. Still, P. D. G. K., Fruin - levels of service. [Online] Available at: [Accessed Date: Wednesday 25 th of January 2017]. Zhang, A. (2017). Online Image. [image] Available at: [Accessed Date: Tuesday 24th of January 2017]. Zhang, A. (2017). Online Image. [image] Available at: [Accessed Date: Tuesday 24th of January 2017]. 910Spatula. (2017). Austin Women s March [Video]. Available at: [Accessed Date: Tuesday 24th of January 2017]. 20

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