Department of Politics and International Studies, University of Hull, UK. Issues in national politics I: The presidential elections on 14 January

Transcription

1 1068 European Journal of Political Research 41: , 2002 Portugal JOSÉ M. MAGONE Department of Politics and International Studies, University of Hull, UK Issues in national politics I: The presidential elections on 14 January The highly popular Jorge Sampaio was able to win a second term as President of the Republic. Throughout the campaign none of the candidates was a serious challenger to Sampaio. The candidate of the main opposition party, Joaquim Ferreira do Amaral, a former minister of the Cavaco Silva Governments supported by both the PSD and the right-wing CDS-PP, came a distant second with over 35 per cent of the vote. The other left-wing candidates were not able to overcome the weakness of their constituencies. The election was regarded as a foregone conclusion due to the high levels of popularity that Sampaio enjoys among the population. A matter for concern was the extremely low turnout of slighty over 50 per cent. This confirmed a long-term trend of the Portuguese electorate. In terms of electoral geography, Sampaio was quite strong in southern Portugal (Alentejo, Algarve) and in the archipelago of Acores; Ferreira do Amaral was strong in northern Portugal (Beiras, Trás Os Montes, Minho, Douro) and in the islands of Madeira (Expresso, 20 January 2001). Thus the left-right cleavage has continued to have the same territorial expression since the founding elections of Issues in national politics II: The dramatic decline in popularity of the Government Throughout the year, the population observed a Government in steady decline in terms of political initiative and performance. The Portuguese economy entered into difficulties due to the high level of public debt and the chronic budget deficit that was threatening to pass the 3 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) threshold set by the European Union. The Portuguese Government was under permanent pressure from the main opposition parties, particularly the liberal PSD and the rightwing CDS-PP, to make major cuts in the public sector. Published by Blackwell Publishers, 108 Cowley Road, Oxford, OX4 1JF and 350 Main Street, Malden, MA 02148, USA

2 portugal 1069 Table 1. Presidential elections Date of election: 14 January 2001 Electorate: 8,746,746 Total votes cast: 4,453,011 (50.91 per cent) Valid votes cast: 4,324,786 (49.79 per cent) Number Percentage Candidate Party of votes of votes Jorge Sampaio Socialist Party (PS) 2,411, Joaquim Ferreira Socialdemocratic Party 1,493, do Amaral (PSD)/People s Party (CDS-PP) António Simões Abreu Communist Party (PCP-PEV) 221, Fernando Rosas Block of the Left (BE) 128, António Pestana Movement of the 68, Garcia Pereira Reconstruction of the Party of the Proletariat (MRPP) Source: Comissao Nacional de Eleicoes, available online at The collapse of a bridge on the river Douro in the small village of Castelo de Paiva in northern Portugal on 5 March 2001, led to a major breaking point in the fortunes of the Government. More than fifty people died when they were crossing the bridge by car and bus at the moment of its collapse. The Portuguese public was quite angry because no action had been taken despite several warnings to the Government about the fragility of the old bridge. This led to the immediate resignation of the responsible minister, Jorge Coelho, a close ally of Prime Minister Guterres. For two days, Portugal mourned for the victims. Another catastrophe happened on 9 March when a coach plunged into a ravine in the north of Portugal, mainly because of the poor state of the road. The coach was full of elderly people returning from a visit to the Catholic pilgrimage village of Fatima (Keesing s Contemporary Archive 3 (2001): 44066). Before these two transport disasters, the government had had to deal with the collapse of an old house during the building of the new underground in Oporto on 12 January. One elderly woman died as a consequence (Expresso, 17 March 2001). This naturally led to a decline in trust among the population in the safety of public works, particularly bridges and tunnels, which had an impact on support for the Government (Expresso, 17 March 2001; 24 March 2001). The military protested against the appointment of General Viegas as chief of the General Staff of the Army. General Silva Viegas was felt to be out of touch with the Army due to his three-year absence. The military preferred the

3 1070 josé m. magone Table 2. Cabinet composition of Guterres II For the composition of Guterres II on 1 January 2001, see Political Data Yearbook 2000: Changes during 2001: Minister of Social Infrastructures/Ministro do Equipamento Social & Minister of Parliamentary Affairs/Ministro de Assuntos Parlamentares: Jorge Coelho (1948 male, S) replaced by Eduardo Lins Ferro Rodrigues (1950 male, S) on 8 March Minister of Presidency/Ministro da Presidĕncia: Guilherme d Oliveira Martins (1952 male, Independent) also Minister of Finance/Ministro das Finanças from 3 July Minister Attached to the Prime Minister s Office/Ministro Adjunto ao Primeiro Ministro & Home Office Minister/Ministro do Interior: Nuno Severiano Teixeira (1956 male, Independent) until 3 July Home Office Minister/Ministro do Interior: Nuno Severiano Teixeira (1956 male, Independent) from 3 July Minister Attached to the Prime Minister s Office/Ministro Adjunto ao Primeiro Ministro: Antonio José Seguro (1962 male, S) from 3 July Minister of Finance/Ministro das Finanças: Joaquim Pina Moura (1953 male, S) until 3 July Minister of the Economy/Ministro da Economia: Mário Cristina de Sousa (1946 male, Independent) replaced by Luis Braga da Cruz (1943 male, Independent) on 3 July Ministry of Defence/Ministro da Defesa: Julio Castro Caldas (1943 male, Independent) replaced by Rui Pena (male, Independent) on 3 July Minister of Education/Ministro de Educação: Augusto Santos Silva (1956 male, S) replaced by Júlio Pedrosa (1946 male, S) on 3 July Minister of Health/Ministra da Saúde: Maria Manuela Arcanjo (1954 female, S) replaced by António Correia Campos (1942 male, S) on 3 July Minister of Employment & Solidarity/Ministro do Trabalho e Solidariedade: Eduardo Lins Ferro Rodrigues (1950 male, S) replaced by Paulo Pedroso (1936 male, S) on 8 March Minister for Culture/Ministro da Cultura: José Estevão Sasportes (1937 male, S) replaced by Augusto Santos Silva (1956 male, S) on 3 July present vice-chief of the General Staff, General Garcia Leandro. The military were particularly angry because, during the consultation process, they unanimously supported General Garcia Leandro but Prime Minister Guterres decided on General Silva Viegas, who had been involved in the Government during the past three years (Expresso, 3 March 2001). The position of Guterres was weakened by the fact that even President Jorge Sampaio asked him to be more pro-active and overcome the present inertia of the Government in relation to the serious financial situation of the country (Expresso, 10 March 2001). After the resignation of Minister Jorge Coelho, Prime Minister Guterres had major difficulties in finding a replacement for the Ministry of Social

4 portugal 1071 Equipment. After a while, Ferro Rodrigues moved from the Ministry of Employment and Social Affairs to the Ministry of Social Equipment. Paulo Pedroso, a young member of the PS and close to the faction around Jorge Sampaio, was selected to be Minister of Employment and Social Affairs. He is regarded as loyal to the party, but inexperienced in national politics. He was a former assistant professor of sociology at the prestigious academic public institution, ISCTE, a major reservoir of talent for the Government of the PS since Prime Minister Guterres also used the mini-reshuffle to replace the State Secretary for European Affairs, Francisco Seixas da Costa, with Teresa Moura, an experienced diplomat. Seixas da Costa became Portugal s Ambassador to the United Nations (Expresso, 10 March 2001). One thing that was noticeable in this reshuffle is that the Prime Minister was running out of new personnel for his Government. The loss of so many highly qualified ministers since 1995 was leading to the promotion of former junior ministers to positions as ministers. This further confirmed the impression of a wearing out of the Government. Due to the transport disasters in March, the party conference had to be delayed until early May. Throughout March and April, the Opposition felt that their moment was coming. The possibility of early elections in 2002 became a major topic of discussion. Most of the parties were preparing themselves for the local elections in December There was a possibility that, if the local elections were to go wrong, the Government would call for early elections. Therefore, the main opposition leader, Manuel Durão Barroso, began to prepare his shadow government for this possibility (Expresso, 7 April 2001; 28 April 2001). The expectations raised by the Socialist Party conference on 3 5 May were disappointed because Prime Minister António Guterres was not able to offer a credible solution to the problems of the country. The grassroots of the party did not speak up, but discontent and factionalism inside the party were felt at the party conference. This naturally further undermined the position of Guterres (Expresso, 12 May 2001). The discussion regarding a forthcoming reshuffle of the Government to replace ministers such as Minister of Health Manuela Arcanjo, due to the poor state of the Portuguese National Health Service, and Minister of Finance Pina Moura, due to the poor state of the country s finances, led to a further decline in the credibility of the Government (Expresso, 28 April 2001). During May and June, the Guterres Government continued to give the impression of inertia. Finance Minister Pina Moura had to present a major package of cuts in the public sector amounting to 150 billion Escudos as amendments to the 2001 budget. The main opposition party, the PSD, supported this. The amendments to the budget were approved on 29 June. They

5 1072 josé m. magone were justified on the basis of the deteriorating economic situation and the gap between expected and real tax revenue. The Government also had to deal with a motion of censure tabled by the small left-wing Block of the Left (Bloque of the Esquerda BE). Before the end of the summer, Guterres undertook a major reshuffle of the cabinet. The less popular ministers Manuela Arcanjo, Pina Moura and José Sasportes were replaced in part from inside the cabinet (Guilherme Oliveira Martins for Pina Moura) and in part by independent newcomers who were located on the moderate right side of Portuguese party politics (Expresso, 30 June 2001; 7 July 2001). Despite this measure, the Guterres Government continued to be haunted by the likely repetition of the scenario of the year before, when the budget could be approved only with the vote of former PP Member of Parliament Daniel Campelo. None of the other parties supported the budget. The leader, Paulo Portas, expelled Daniel Campelo from the PP. Before the Summer, Campelo had already announced that he would support the 2002 budget presented by the Government. This was regarded as a sign of crisis among the Socialist leadership. Indeed, during late November and early December, rumours that the Government would have to introduce further amendments to the budget for 2001 led to a major split between the Socialist parliamentary group and the Government. This became even more problematic because, at the same time, the Government was making all efforts to get the budget for 2002 approved. Once again, the opposition parties decided against the budget and again Guterres had to rely on the support of Daniel Campelo (Expresso, 24 November 2001; 1 December 2001). One week before the local elections of 16 December, Antonio Guterres confirmed that he would resign and allow early elections if the electoral result were to be disastrous for the party. This was a way of calming the growing fragmentation of support in the party over the lack of leadership in the Government throughout the past 18 months. One week later, Guterres was confronted with disastrous local elections results, leaving him no choice but to resign the next day from his positions as prime minister and secretary-general of the party, and to allow President Jorge Sampaio to call early elections. The Socialist Party tried to find a replacement for Guterres, including European Commissioner António Vitorino and Vice Prime Minister Jaime Gama, but nobody wanted to take the position. President Sampaio, after consultation with the Council of State, scheduled early elections for 17 March 2002 (Expresso, 22 December 2001; 29 December 2001). Ferro Rodrigues became the new leader of the Socialist Party. António Guterres Government will stay in power until a new government emerges from the elections on 17 March This dramatic change of events was regarded as a personal victory for

6 portugal 1073 the main opposition leader, Manuel Durão Barroso, who believed he could become the new prime minister after the early elections in Discussions about cooperation and a possible coalition government between the PSD and the PP were started. Issues in national politics III: The local elections of 16 December 2001 Throughout the year the main parties were preparing themselves for the local elections in December. The PSD, in particular, was trying to gather a good team so that it could gain political momentum towards early legislative elections. One of the main aims of the PSD was to win control over Lisbon. In the end, Socialist Mayor João Soares had to compete with the charismatic Pedro Santana Lopes, who was able to win the election, despite all the predictions of the opinion polls to the contrary. Indeed, the PSD was able to gain control over all three main Portuguese cities Lisbon, Oporto and Coimbra which came as a big surprise for the Socialist leadership. The electoral results of 1997 were completely reversed. The PSD became the main party in local elections, while the PS became second. In total, 76 out of 308 local councils changed hands, mainly from the PSD to the PS and from the smaller parties to the larger parties. The Communists were able to win Setúbal back from the Socialists, but lost Évora in the Communist heartland of Alentejo. The big loser in the local elections was the right-wing CDS-PP, which again was reduced to a small number of municipalities and is disappearing as a player in local elections (O Publico, 17 December 2001). These local elections allowed the presentation of independent citizens lists for the first time; these were successful in three municipalities. Institutional changes: The ratification of the Treaty of Nice and revision of the Constitution Some little noticed institutional changes were approved by the Assembly of the Republic. The main decision was the ratification of the Treaty of Nice with the votes of the Socialists, Socialdemocrats and the People s Party. The leader of the People s Party, Paulo Portas, asserted that support for the Treaty was in the national interest, and that therefore his party would vote for it, although euroscepticism is quite prominent in the ranks of his party. Both the Communists and the Block of the Left voted against the Treaty. The Communists wanted to submit it to a popular referendum, but this proposal was rejected

7 1074 josé m. magone by the main parties (Expresso, 20 October 2001; Keesing s Record of World Events 10(2001): 44419). After the events of 11 September in the United States, Portugal became part of the alliance in the war against terrorism. This led to a revision of the Constitution whereby prisoners who committed serious crimes can be extradited to countries of the European Union, even if these countries may apply sentences of life imprisonment. The Constitution was also adjusted to take account of the establishment of the International Criminal Court. The two main parties agreed to include in the Constitution a provision declaring that Portuguese is the official language and granting reciprocity of political rights to citizens of lusophone countries. Moreover, police trade unions were allowed, but without the right to strike. The Communists wanted inclusion of compulsory referendums for treaties related to the European Union, but this proposal was rejected by the two main parties. There was also a proposal to limit the incumbency of elected high offices, but this was postponed to the regular revision of the Constitution due in The fifth constitutional revision was approved on 4 October 2001 (O Público, 4 October 2001; Keesing s Contemporary Archive 10(2001): 44419; Expresso, 5 October 2001). Sources and further information Expresso (daily newspaper) available online at: Secretariado Técnico para o processo eleitoral (STAPE), Eleição do presidente da República 2001 website: Secretariado Técnico para o processo eleitoral (STAPE), Eleição dos orgãos das autarquias locais 2001 website: Comissão Nacional de Eleicões (CNE) website: