The Folketing Election 2015: Who and How? Rune Stubager, PhD, Professor, Department of Political Science

Transcription

1 The Folketing Election 2015: Who and How?, PhD, Professor, Department of Political Science Slide 1

2 Topics The basics: The Danish constitution Democracy a la Denmark The political parties Old parties New(er) parties The electoral system Proportional representation and geographical anchoring The current political situation The polls The issues Slide 2

3 The basics: The constitution Types of democratic regimes: Presidentialism First past the post/winner takes all USA Proportional representaion Latin America Parliamentarism UK Continental Europe Slide 3

4 The basics: The constitution The Danish constitution: First written constitution in 1849 Present constitution from 1953 Constitutional monarchy and representative democracy Parliamentary democracy Proportional representation The constitution is neither a full nor an accurate description of political life read between the lines Slide 4

5 The basics: Democracy a la Political culture Denmark High level of political interest High turnout in elections around 85% High level of turnout in referendums High level of satisfaction with the working of democracy Curretly lower levels of trust in politicians Slide 5

6 The political parties: The old parties Two cleavages, four parties Status quo Country side Venstre = Liberals Cities Konservtive = Conservatives Reformdemanding Radikale Venstre = Social liberals Socialdemokraterne = Social Democrats Slide 6

7 Department of Political Science University of Aarhus The political parties: The new(er) parties 1956/9: Communist party splinter Socialist People s Party 1968/1973: New left parties Unity List Red/Green alliance New right party: Progress Party Danish People s Party 2007: New Alliance Liberal Alliance, economically right wing 2014: The Alternative Slide 7

8 Department of Political Science The University of Aarhus political parties Danish People's Part Liberals Conservatives 50 Socialdemocrats Socialist People's P Radical Liberals Economic Politics Slide 8

9 Department of Political Science The University of electoral Aarhus system Slide 9

10 The electoral system Geography 3 levels: 3 electoral provinces: Metropolitan Copenhagen, Sealand-Southern Denmark, and Northern and Central Jutland 10 constituencies: Copenhagen (16), Outskirts of Copenhagen (11), Northern Sealand (10) and Bornholm (2); Sealand (20), Funen (12) and Southern Jutland (18); Eastern Jutland (18), Western Jutland (13) og Northern Jutland (15) 92 nomination districts 2 types of seats: 135 constituency seats: Tied to a given constituency 40 compensatory seats: Used for achieving proportionality tied to a given electoral province (11, Slide 10 15, 14)

11 Department of Political Science University of Aarhus The electoral system The allocation of seats takes place in 6 steps: 1. Allocation of constituency seats (d Hondt s formula) 2. Determining of passage of electoral threshold 3. Allocation of compensatory seats (pure Hare quota) 4. Allocation of compensatory seats to parties in electoral provinces (pure Sainte-Laguë formula) 5. Allocation of compensatory seats to parties in constituencies ( the Danish method ) 6. Candidate selection Slide 11

12 Department The of Political Science current University of Aarhus situation: The polls Support for the government and it s supporters in the poll of polls 52,00 50,00 48,00 46,00 44,00 42,00 40,00 Slide 12

13 Per Cent support Department of Political Science University of Aarhus The current situation: The polls Election 2011 Now Slide 13

14 The current situation: The issues Issues being debated now and possibly in the election campaign: The economy and growth The welfare system Immigration and integration The two candidates for Prime Minister An issue that will not appear in the campaign: The EU Slide 14