Pakistan: Political and Foreign Relations Outlook

Transcription

1 12 28 February 2017 Pakistan: Political and Foreign Relations Outlook Lindsay Hughes Research Analyst Indian Ocean Research Programme Key Points Pakistani politics have been influenced by the country s government, its military and the judiciary. The concern paid to distinguishing itself from India has had major repercussions on the country s domestic and foreign policies. Whereas Pakistan was once perceived by the United States, for example, as a relatively friendly country, it is now seen as growing ever closer to China. Australia has a strong interest in maintaining a good relationship with Pakistan but that relationship is overshadowed by Canberra s growing commercial and geo-strategic links with India. Summary Pakistan, the land of the Pure, was carved out of British colonial India and became an independent state on 14 August 1947, a day before rump India did. Pakistan was unique in that it comprised two wings, the left and the right. The left wing, then called West Pakistan, consisted of the present state of Pakistan and the right, or East Pakistan, the present day Bangladesh. Due to perceptions of inequality among the people of East Pakistan and of being subservient to West Pakistan, East Pakistan descended into a state of civil war that, ultimately, led to the birth of Bangladesh in 1971.

2 Pakistan was also noted for the fact that, until recently, no elected government had completed its full term in office, either losing in snap elections or being ousted by military coups. Like its re-energising economy, however, this situation, too, could be changing. Political Environment of Pakistan Analysis Pakistan is made up of four provinces, Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab and Sindh, and two federally-administered territories, The Federally Administered Tribal Areas and the Islamabad Capital Territory. The Parliament (Majlis-i-Shoora) consists of the National Assembly and the Senate, with 342 and 104 members, respectively. The government is headed by a Prime Minister. The President is elected by the Electoral College of the National Assembly, provincial assemblies and the Senate. This individual may remain in office for a maximum of two five-year terms. Of the National Assembly s 342 members, 272 are elected from single-member districts directly by the people for five-year terms, sixty seats are reserved for women, which are allocated in proportion to the number of unreserved seats a party wins in each of the provinces, and ten seats are reserved for non-muslim minorities. A similar system obtains in the provincial assemblies. The Senate, in contrast, allows for equal representation from each of the provinces and territories with 23 Senators elected by the provincial assemblies, eight by National Assembly members who are elected from the Federally Administered Tribal Areas and four more by the National Assembly to represent the Islamabad Capital Territory. Senators serve six-year terms, with fifty-two seats to be elected every three years. In a major revamp of Parliamentary process, the Eighteenth Amendment of the Constitution was passed into Law in According to the terms of this Amendment, some major legislative and executive responsibilities pertaining to health, education and local government were transferred from the federal government to the provinces. The Pakistani political system is, generally speaking, prone to instability. There is an ongoing three-way battle between the Army, the Judiciary and the political parties. Religious extremism, like terrorism, has, moreover, become a major factor and an important tool in Pakistan s political framework. The Pakistani Army was, until recently, perceived as the country s strongest institution. It was seen as the protector of the country and its people. As a result, it has intervened several times in the political process, leaving Pakistan under military rule; its actions were legitimised by the Judiciary. Until recently, the Judiciary was its ally, both institutions being conservative, Punjabi-dominated and distrustful of political parties. The Army, however, has lost public support for several reasons, including perceptions of ineptitude and the use of terrorists to fight its mortal enemy, India. The Judiciary, asserting its independence in 2012, charged Prime Minister Gilani with contempt of court, for which he eventually served a Page 2 of 6

3 thirty second-long sentence, and President Zardari with corruption. Effectively, a weakened Army left the polity strengthened and the Judiciary cementing its own position. Pakistani society remains ordered along family, clan and tribal lines. This striation caused internal fractures, even immediately after independence. The Khan of Kalat, for instance, resisted the incorporation of his state into the province of Baluchistan, requiring the Pakistani army to quell his rebellion. Baluchistan remains a restive province, however, and would likely secede if given the opportunity. Similar military action ensured that the traditional rulers of the frontier and northern regions accepted central rule. Khyber- Pakhtunkhwa (formerly the North-West Frontier Province) and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), however, remain restive and do not fully accept Islamabad s rule, selfgoverning in accordance with tribal law and custom. The fractures within Pakistani society have been papered over with nationalism and only slightly more compelling military force. A major cause of Pakistan s instability is its use of proxies to fight India. After losing virtually every encounter with Indian forces, the Pakistani Army has abdicated its role to an extent by using militants as proxies to fight Indian forces. The Mujahidin fighting in Kashmir receive material support from Pakistan. Again, despite being an ally in the war on terror, ex- President Musharraf refused to unequivocally renounce the terror option in Kashmir and Afghanistan. Pakistan s use of terror as a foreign policy strategy was highlighted after the Mumbai attacks in November David Coleman, a naturalised American citizen of Pakistani heritage, pleaded guilty to charges brought against him in a Chicago court, admitting to helping Lashkar-e-Taiba, commonly perceived as a terrorist group, and interacting with Pakistan s Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (ISI), the Pakistani Army s intelligence branch, in planning and carrying out the attack. A further complexity, one that has a direct bearing on the government, is religious fundamentalism. Various Pakistani leaders have been unable to dismantle the Pakistani Taliban and their support infrastructure. Some senior officers in the Pakistani Army view the Taliban as a tool with which to control Afghanistan and undercut India s influence there. The Taliban s extremist ideology, however, is growing in Pakistan itself. Extremist groups spread their ideologies among the Pashtu in the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and in Punjab, the home of Pakistan s military, suggesting the military has lost control of its creation. Pakistani liberals such as Pervez Hoodbhoy argue that, The common belief in Pakistan is that Islam s radicalism is a problem only in [the Federally Administered Tribal Areas or FATA], and the madrassas are the only institutions serving as jihad factories. This is a serious misconception. This belief, they say, may eventually lead to Pakistan s demise as a nationstate. Liberals are, however, usually silenced by violent Islamist hardliners; witness, for instance, the assassinations of the former Minorities Minister, Shahbaz Bhatti, and the Governor of Punjab, Salman Taseer, both of whom proposed amending Pakistan s antiblasphemy laws. Their assassins were showered with rose petals in court. A further cause of political instability is the distribution of power among the various political parties. The general elections that were held in 2013 saw the Pakistan Muslim League- Nawaz (a faction of the Pakistan Muslim League that is named after the current Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif), oust the incumbent Pakistan People s Party from government. The Page 3 of 6

4 former won 126 of the directly-elected seats in the National Assembly and the latter, 31. The provincial elections in the same year saw different parties take office in each of the four provinces, thus impeding common objectives. Another setback that Pakistan has faced is the overall deterioration of its relationship with the United States. Whereas it was previously seen as a close partner, if not an ally, it is now viewed with suspicion and a deep sense of distrust. This was compounded by the discovery that Osama bin Laden was hiding a very short distance from a major Pakistani military academy in Kakul, Abbottabad, which itself is a relatively short distance from Islamabad. When a US helicopter that was used in the assassination mission crashed in the bin Laden compound, its remains were given to the Chinese by the Pakistanis in a fit of pique, causing further ill-will. The US perception that Pakistan is now gravitating towards China has all but sealed the distrust between the two countries. In sum, Pakistan is beset by a multitude of political problems that, while difficult to counter, can be overcome if the governments are allowed to deal with them without having to also contend with internal forces possessing an agenda that does not fit completely with that of the elected government. Foreign Relations Many of Pakistan s foreign relations policies are a direct outcome of its founding ideology. The Kashmir issue, for example, is at least partially the result of its desire to differentiate itself from Hindu India. When it failed in its initial bid in 1948 to acquire Muslim-majority Kashmir as part of its territory, Pakistan saw China as a natural ally when that country defeated India in the 1962 border war that Beijing fought with New Delhi. China, for its part, saw in Pakistan the opportunity to contain India. This commonality gave rise to Pakistan s enduring close relationship with China which, in turn, saw US President Richard Nixon and his Foreign Secretary/National Security Advisor, Henry Kissinger, approach Islamabad to act as an intermediary in their overtures to Beijing. It was the same relationship that also saw China transfer nuclear technology and know-how to Pakistan in direct contravention of extant international law, directly and also via North Korea. The Islamabad-Beijing nexus has flourished since, with the latter now investing around US$46 billion in the former s economy. Pakistan s relationship with the United States, while initially strong, has slowed dramatically in recent years due to US perceptions of Pakistan being a hotbed and direct sponsor, in some instances, of terrorism. The assassination of Osama bin Laden on Pakistani territory by American Special Forces did nothing to alleviate the situation, as did Pakistan s decision to transfer to China the remnants of the crashed helicopter that was used in that operation in order to give China access to US technology. Islamabad s relationship with the Middle East, similarly, started out strongly based, in part, on its access to nuclear technology and its willingness to transfer that technology to other Muslim-majority countries, Libya being an example. It has also been suggested that Pakistan s nuclear programme was funded by Saudi Arabia, although this particular claim has yet to be proven. While the relationship remains, many of those Middle Eastern countries Page 4 of 6

5 have developed or are developing their relationship with India because of their perceptions of India either as a growing power, market or both. Russia, which had previously shunned any notable relationship with Pakistan because of its strategic relationship with India, has in recent times made some overtures, based upon arms sales, to Islamabad. This nascent relationship is, however, predicated upon Moscow s perception of growing Indo-US ties and its need to develop as many international relationships as it can. It is difficult to see how a relationship built upon those weak foundations could last. The Australia-Pakistan relationship is, in the main, a commercial one. The value of the total merchandise trade between the two countries in was around $960 million. Of that amount, exports to Pakistan made up around $650 million and imports, $310 million. Australia s main exports to Pakistan were fertilisers, vegetables, ferrous waste and pharmaceutical products. Its main imports from Pakistan were textiles, crude petroleum, rice and sporting goods. In 2015, Australian exports to Pakistan constituted 1.2 per cent of the latter s total imports (China provided a full 25 per cent and was the primary source of imports). On the other hand, Pakistan s exports to Australia constituted only 0.8 per cent of the latter s total imports. Australia, similarly, exported $572 million worth of services to Pakistan and imported $97 million. Pakistan has invested $37 million in Australia while Australia has no investment in Pakistan. Given Pakistan s geo-strategic location, its large population, and its economic and trade potential, Australia holds a strong interest in maintaining a good bilateral relationship with it. Recognising the impediments to Pakistan s economic and social development, Australia has allocated around $47 million in overseas development aid to it in the period. Here again, Australia s relationship with Pakistan is overshadowed by its growing commercial and geo-strategic ties with India. Australia perceives India as a market for its minerals and energy products and as a geo-strategic partner. Canberra would be unlikely, therefore, to allow its relationship with Pakistan to come in the way of its relationship with India. Conclusion Like its economy, Pakistani politics have shown a resurgence in recent times. The three-way tussle for primacy between the Administration, the military and the Judiciary appears to have been settled, at least for now. This has enabled the Sharif Administration to concentrate on lifting Pakistan s economy, which it has been able to do to an extent. Its growing ties with China, furthermore, have seen that country s investments in Pakistan increase dramatically, notably in regard to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Similarly, while Pakistan-US relations have deteriorated since the elimination of Osama bin Laden, it is unlikely that the US will terminate its ties to Pakistan altogether. In any case, any deterioration in the Pakistan-US relationship is more than compensated for by the increasing Page 5 of 6

6 ties with China. The need of the latter for strategic relationships will only see its ties with Pakistan grow further. This could be a good thing for Pakistan provided that it takes care not to become fully indebted to China or a pawn in a much larger power struggle between the growing forces of nationalism in both China and the United States. Those reservations aside, there is good reason to believe that Pakistan s politics are again on an upwards trajectory. ***** Any opinions or views expressed in this paper are those of the individual author, unless stated to be those of Future Directions International. Published by Future Directions International Pty Ltd. 80 Birdwood Parade, Dalkeith WA 6009, Australia. Tel: Fax: Web: Page 6 of 6