The Political Landscape of Shale Gas Development and Hydraulic Fracturing in New York: Understanding the Fractures

Transcription

1 The Political Landscape of Shale Gas Development and Hydraulic Fracturing in New York: Understanding the Fractures Tanya Heikkila & Chris Weible Associate Professors School of Public Affairs University of Colorado Denver Presented at The Earth Institute at Columbia University September 18, 2014

2 Newspaper Coverage: Hydraulic Fracturing, Fracking, or Fracing Article Count Denver Post New York Times Houston Chronicle 50 0

3

4 Study Population: Policy Actors (Govt., NGOs, Industry, Consultants, Academics, etc.) Study Locations: Colorado, New York, Texas Methods: Interviews, surveys, media/document analyses, hyperlink analyses Key Questions: General positions, problem perceptions, preferences for who addresses problems, evaluation of recent regulations and government decisions Team: Tanya Heikkila, Chris Weible, Jon Pierce, Sam Gallaher, Jennifer Kagan, Ben Blair, Kristin Olofsson

5 What are policy actors positions on shale gas development that uses hydraulic fracturing in New York, Colorado, and Texas?

6 What Should New York State Government Do? 40% 35% Percent of Respondents 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Ban the practice Continue de facto moratorium Permit smallscale experimental drilling Permit in some regions of NY Permit statewide drilling

7 For New Yorkers, What is Your Position on Hydraulic Fracturing in the United States? 40% Percent of Respondents 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Stop Limit Continue at Current Rate Expand Moderately Expand Extensively

8 35% Positions on Hydraulic Fracturing in Colorado 30% Percent of Respondents 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Stop Limit Continue at Current Rate Expand Moderately Expand Extensively

9 35% Positions on Hydraulic Fracturing in Texas 30% Percent of Respondents 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Stop Limit Continue at Current Rate Expand Moderately Expand Extensively

10 What are the positions of different types of policy actors in New York?

11 What Should New York State Government do on Hydraulic Fracturing? 40% 35% Percent of Respondents 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Ban the practice Continue de facto moratorium Permit smallscale experimental drilling Permit in some regions of NY Permit statewide drilling

12 Organizational Affiliation by Positions Stop/Limit Environmental groups, organized citizen groups, federal government Local governments and academics & consultants are in both groups Expand Oil and gas industry, mineral rights groups, state government

13 What are policy actors perceptions of potential problems and benefits with hydraulic fracturing in New York?

14 Perceived Problems with Hydraulic Fracturing 5.5 Severe Problem Moderate Problem Not a Problem Contamination Water Supply Air Pollution Public Distrust of Oil & Gas Industry Scare tactics on fracking

15 Perceived Benefits of Hydraulic Fracturing 5.0 Strongly Agree 4.0 Neither Agree or Disagree Strongly Disagree Land owners State Economy Bridge Fuel Climate Mitigation

16 Is the polarization in New York getting bigger or smaller?

17 Agree more today than past Percent Change from Past to Current on Hydraulic Fracturing Perceptions 40% 20% No Change 0% -20% Disagree more today than past -40% Significant economic benefits Severe public health risks Severe env risks Local gov should be able to ban the practice

18 Who do policy actors in New York most likely agree and disagree with on hydraulic fracturing issues?

19 Strongly Agree Agreement and Disagreement with other Organizations on Hydraulic Fracturing Neither Agree or Disagree Strongly Disagree Oil &Gas Industry NY DEC NY Senate NY Governor Media Env Groups

20 How are policy actors in New York framing other actors in their narratives?

21 Types of Heroes, Villains, and Victims Identified in Coded Documents Hero Villain Victim Hero, Villain, Victim Types New York DEC 12% 9% 0% 21% 0% 1% Environmental/Advocacy Orgs 3% 51% 25% 2% 0% 2% Oil and Gas Industry 47% 1% 0% 48% 12% 0% General Public 8% 10% 5% 1% 15% 50% Other Actors (e.g. media, scientists) 23% 16% 47% 2% 0% 5% 21 Shaded cells signify statistically significant differences between pro and anti-groups, p <.01

22 Who has a strong web presence and perceived as influential on hydraulic fracturing issues in New York?

23 Survey Respondents Hyperlink Network Env Groups Citizen Groups Academic / Consultant Loc Gov State Gov Fed Gov Mineral Rights Groups Oil & Gas Industry

24 Survey Respondents Hyperlink Network Env Groups Citizen Groups Academic / Consultant Loc Gov State Gov Fed Gov Mineral Rights Groups Oil & Gas Industry

25 Survey Respondents Perceptions of Influence on NY Hydraulic Fracturing Issues 0 = Not Influential, 1 = Somewhat Influential, 2 = Extremely Influential NY Governor Env Groups Citizen Groups NY DEC News Media State Courts Local Governments Academics / Consultants Oil & Gas Industry NY Assembly NY Dept Health Local Courts NY Senate Mineral Rights Groups Federal Government

26 What are policy actors perceptions of the impact of the de facto moratorium in New York?

27 Perceived Impact of Moratorium Positive Impact No Impact Negative Impact Env Quality Public Health Political Debates Trust in Gov Econ Vitality

28 Summarizing the political fractures and seams in hydraulic fracturing in New York

29 Fractures: Increasing Polarization Illustrative comments from the survey Drill here, drill now in New York. Governor Cuomo has effectively stolen our mineral rights. This is an illegal taking and our constitutional rights are being violated. The drilling industry can be successful with minimal environmental damage provided solid regulations are promulgated and enforced. Shale fracturing benefits few, is boom/bust, pollutes the air, water and soil, the industry is irresponsible in terms of human/ environmental safety and health. The hallmark of public and environmental health is to contain toxic substances, preventing exposures; since this is not possible using existing HVHF techniques, the process should be banned.

30 Seams: Shared Disagreement with the Governor s Office, DEC, Senate Illustrative comments from our interviews Governor Cuomo has used the regulatory process as the basis to aid not making a formal decision. Gov. argues it will be a decision driven by science, it is well-known that any decision will be politically driven. Under Cuomo what is occurring is not transparent There is a complete absence of dialogue and this is a big problem. We have a dysfunctional senate. Many members of the Senate have vowed not to vote on the issue.

31 Strategies for Moving Forward? It is well understood from a social-psychological perspective that once people become invested in a position they will not change their minds. Instead their reaction to new information is to dig deeper into their position. Studies show one thing that can prevent this phenomenon is to get the public involved in debates and science and technology earlier in the process. The public needs to see and assess real facts before they fully make up their minds.

32 Strategies for Moving Forward? Research on other polarized conflicts suggests Rarely are they resolved with better technical and scientific information Recognize that these debates are about values Negotiations are not likely to happen as long as one side perceives benefits with the status quo Depends on future of de facto moratorium Learning can occur in professionalized forums But openness and transparency is also needed

33 Thank You Tanya Heikkila & Chris Weible Associate Professors School of Public Affairs University of Colorado Denver