Change Is Coming Yes, But Which Way? Dr. Rene E. Ofreneo Professor, University of the Philippines

Transcription

1 Change Is Coming Yes, But Which Way? Dr. Rene E. Ofreneo Professor, University of the Philippines

2 The Duterte Phenomenon Ruling political elite in Imperial Manila shocked by the election of Mayor Rudy Duterte, an outsider in national politics, based in farflung Mindanao & a non-edsa follower Uses coarse language curses a lot, swears a lot, threatens to kill all criminals and drug pushers, castigates the clergy & boasts openly about his libido and his love for women (but he supports repro & LGBT rights) He claims he is a pro-poor socialist but not a communist He brags how Davao City in strife-torn Mindanao became an oasis of peace and stability because it is drug-free, crime-free. Over a 1,000 reportedly killed summarily by the dreaded vigilante group Davao Death Squad (DDS), composed allegedly of ex-npa commandos, during his 22-year mayorship

3 Why did he win? He won 39 % of votes and came out 6 million ahead of Aquino Administration s candidate, Mar Roxas. And yet, in 2015, Duterte was not given a chance to win. Two reasons why he won: 1) Protest vote -- Society s majority (the poor and the middle class) were fed up with the hollow claims of the Aquino Administration that the Philippines had never it so good based on gov t reports highest GDP growth, poverty going down, transparent and corrupt-free governance. Credit raters gave Phl investment-grade rating. And yet, reality perceived differently. Unemployment and poverty remain deep and widespread (1 out of 4 is poor), country w/ a population of 105 M dominated by 40 families, & urban areas have become ungovernable due to traffic, pollution, etc. Corruption persisted in new forms (e.g., Disbursement Acceleration Program pork barrel) & inability of Aquino to accost his KKK brigade.

4 Why did he win 2) During the campaign, Duterte emerged as the people s choice. Aquino Administration vilified the early poll leader, VP Jojo Binay who was branded as corrupt & who was investigated by the Senate in full glare of the media. Then the Administration started hitting the next poll leader, Grace Poe, via black propaganda & cases filed at Supreme Court on her citizenship. And yet, the number for Administration Candidate, Mar Roxas, barely improved partly because he was always talking of continuity of the discredited daang matuwid (straight path) program of the Aquino Administration. As to the fourth Candidate, Senator Miriam Santiago, she has a lung cancer & was invisible in the campaign. So Duterte emerged as the true opposition candidate in the homestretch. He projected the image of a tough-talking pro-poor crime/corruption/drug buster, an image carefully built up by a brigade of social media campaigners. The slogan was raised: Change is coming to a country wallowing in poverty, inequality and corruption. At the end, millions came out in droves to volunteer free campaign services and paraphernalia in support of Duterte.

5 True to his promise: Duterte has launched a vicious war on drugs Drug-related statistics for the month of July 2016: 596 killed (400 by police, 196 by vigilantes). 4,000 + pushers/users arrested 500,000 or so surrendered. Duterte keeps reiterating to the police force the shoot-to-kill guideline whenever pushers, users, traders resist arrest. He showed toughness by naming alleged big drug lords & last week, reading the names of 158 judges, military officers and government officials (mostly mayors) allegedly coddling drug lords. But the legal shortcuts, lack of rigor & due process if those arrested or killed truly guilty worry human rights groups here & overseas. Head of CHR called by Duterte as an idiot. Unchecked extra-judicial killings (EJKs) target mostly the poor. However, the campaign revealed pervasiveness of the drug problem, w/c has economic, social, political & even cultural dimensions.

6 Change is coming: Peace agreement with different groups? First, Duterte announced a more inclusive approach to peace agreement w/ Muslim rebels. He is reaching out to the 2 major factions (MILF & MNLF). He is also offering change in government, federalism w/c devolves more power to autonomous regions, as solution. Downside: this entails divisive change in Constitution. Second, he announced renewal of peace talks with CPP-NPA-NDF. He even appointed several NDF nominees to Cabinet (DAR, DSWD, DOLE & NAPC). He also declared ceasefire, w/c was withdrawn when some soldiers ambushed by NPA. Downside: Both sides not firmly united on peace agenda. Third. Duterte has allowed the Marcos family to bury the late strongman in the Cemetery of Heros this September. Downwide: many people remember martial law horrors and strongly oppose burial.

7 Change is coming: A more inclusive and sustainable economy? No economic blueprint so far, only an 8-point but expanded later into 10-point agenda. Key elements: continuity of macro-economic framework of free economy, public-private partnership in infra development & conditional cash transfer for the poor. These are essentially programs of Aquino and Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo (who was released recently from hospital arrest). But Duterte has other initiatives not written in any published agenda such as 1) Appointment of NDF nominees to the social cluster (DAR, DSWD, DOLE, NAPC) 2) Appointment of an anti-mining activist as head of DENR to the dismay of entire mining industry 3) Appointment of anti-debt activist as head of DepEd 4) Declaration of policy against labor contractualization

8 A more inclusive? Debate among labor & social activists: Will the govt abandon neoliberal framework of development in place in four decades? Answer: most likely will not coz economic cluster (DOF, NEDA, DBM, etc.) aligned w/ neo-lib technocrats. The 8-pt/10-pt agenda already reiterates continuity of macro-economic framework. No change in trade & investment liberalization programs. In fact, possible deeper liberalization via charter change. Also, govt exploring participation in Trans-Pacific Partnership. However, opportunities for reform here & there abound. Example: Tax reforms to favor SMEs & wage earners. Example: More direct assistance to small farmers, e.g., free irrigation. Also, Duterte has capacity to question openly wheeling & dealing of big biz people he called oligarchs, e.g., Ongpin, Gutierrez & Pangilinan

9 Change is coming: New directions in foreign policy? Away from US protection? Closer to China? Backgrounder: Duterte not enamored w/ US (in his student supported anti-us base/anti-vietnam war campaigns) days, he However, his electoral platform calls for independent foreign policy. When US Secretary of State John Kerry visited, Phl-US ties were reaffirmed, alongside the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement. But when UN Tribunal ruled in favor of Phl against China s claims over whole of South China sea, Duterte Administration caught in a bind coz apparently it is open to back channeling with China on joint exploration of the area (similar to what happened under the Macapagal-Arroyo Administration). Govt also criticized for failing to get ASEAN statement. Great balancing tactic: Duterte called Natl Security Council meet where past Presidents attended. Likely scenario: balancing.

10 Change is coming: A better Philippines under Duterte Administration? Not easy to conclude. There are positive & negative sides on war on drugs, on Cabinet selection, on economic program, on foreign policy, etc. Govt talking of bringing back OFWs (similar to Aquino s Social Contract) but reality OFWs are savior and lifeline of economy until tomorrow & foreseeable future. Industry & agriculture still weak and unable to support decent jobs for all at home. Economy fueled largely by remittances & related service industries, call center/bpo sector, GVCs in electronics & auto parts. Hence, 2/3 of labor force in informal economy. Agrarian reform not bearing fruits coz not moving. CCT is largely a dole-out program. Dangerous developments: global migration crisis (esp. Middle East), US protectionist trends & technology innovations might end CC/BPO boom

11 Defining Development Agenda of Du30 Govt: Big challenge for Trade Unions & CSOs Government claims it is pro-poor. If it is, it should go beyond CCT and budgeting for social programs. It should have clearer programs on how to address representation/voice deficits of the poor justice/redress deficits for the poor unjustly treated decent work deficits for the numerous poor