KONDA barometer political and social survey series

Transcription

1 KONDA barometer 2012 political and social survey series

2 KONDA Barometer Information is only as reliable as its source.

3 KONDA Barometer At a Glance Definition Goal The Need For Whom? KONDA Barometer is a series of monthly political and social surveys available only to our clients on a subscription basis. KONDA Barometer aims to fulfill the need of individuals and institutions interested in continuous and standardized data on society and politics. Ever-shifting social structure most prominently affects the political arena and monitoring these changes in society becomes crucial. This monitoring makes the continuity, reliability and standardization of social data an inevitable necessity. Individuals or institutions who have an active role in social change or who are influenced by such changes Issues of Interest Themes on social change News agenda Political preferences Indices Client-specific issues (right to 3 questions in one survey) Sample Size Each month 1,800 to 3,600 subjects representative of Turkey s adult population will be interviewed face-to-face in their homes. Calendar 11 field surveys each year Project Outputs Report Specs Monthly reports Interim reports (two per year) Client-specific report Findings of monthly surveys Easy-to-read tables and graphs Comparisons with previous periods and comparisons with other institutions data Political commentary Content of reports are proprietary and cannot be reproduced, published or shared with unauthorized third parties.

4 KONDA Barometer Why Barometer? What is the benefit of subscribing to KONDA Barometer? * Seven out of the first ten in the list of Ekonomist magazine s 100 Wealthiest Families list were clients of KONDA Barometer (Names undisclosed due to contracts).

5 No surprises for Barometer clients KONDA began work on the Barometer project 16 months before the June 12th, 2011 General Parliamentary Elections. Thanks to the Barometer reports, a group of distinguished clients* was able to continuously monitor the political situation and social dynamics for 16 months. For this group of distinguished clients neither the election results nor social developments was startling or surprising. The political agenda in Turkey in the coming years continues to be intense The 3 elections and 1 referendum coming up in the next 5 years necessitate the continous monitoring of the political barometer. KONDA Barometer: Be prepared for change Turkey is a country where new social classes emerge every few years, where the public swiftly reacts to politics and social incidents. In such complexity, tracking social and political balances on a daily basis is an inevitable necessity for those in positions of power and responsibility. Hence KONDA Barometer, for its part, meticulously measures the bustling social dynamics and political changes and turns them into simple and lucid reports. Barometer reports continue to be the only reliable source that prepares you to the social and political changes in the country. KONDA Barometer for the continued existence of accurate and reliable information Information and communication technologies have rendered information more accesible yet more complex. Accurate and reliable information has therefore become even more scarce and more precious than before. And KONDA as an institution has been generating reliable and real information in Turkey for the past 25 years and also using this information for the good of the wider public Hence subscribing to KONDA Barometer means supporting the existence of robust and objective reference points which all decision-makers can rely on. In other words, thanks to its subscribers KONDA generates reliable and sustainable data on the society in Turkey.

6 KONDA Barometer Preparing for change... To its subscribers, KONDA Barometer serves as a guide to social change in the country. Each an important actor in society, subscribers utilise the Barometer reports to prepare themselves for change, to shape their daily and future strategies.

7 Understanding change The phrase Turkey is changing is voiced often. Also, each one of us has an opinion about what it is that is changing, what direction change is in according to our disposition and political stance. This opinion we have reached, based on our observations, on pointers from our favorite author, commentator or politician, or merely on rote memorization; is this opinion a correct one? For example, it is true that Turkey is becoming for conservative? Is nationalism rising? Is Turkey becoming more bigoted, more degenerate or more democratic? There is no single answer to such questions. Therefore, regardless of how striking it may seem, such splashy questions are out of order. Because neither society nor life is simple and straight-forward enough to fit into a single word. On the contrary, today s life and society is much more complex; Multi-dimensional, with multiple actors and multiple identities For this reason all dynamics function simultaneously in life and in society. We could try to understand these dynamics one by one. But society resembles a clock with a complicated mechanism Just as each piece does not explain the mechanism of the clock, individuals do not explain the structure of society. What constitues the whole is in fact the relationship between the pieces. Viewing some explanations not as A or B but rather as A and B makes it easier to grasp the whole. In other words, figures alone are not sufficiently explanatory; we need to seek out trends, relationships and connections. It is therefore more important to strive to understand bonds, cultural identifications and various forms of identifications, relations and networks such as faith groups, communities, hometown-based affinities. Up until now, we have concentrated on understanding and explaining these relations and, more generally, societal change through the lens of politics. It is time, however, to add the why and how to the analysis of these relationships and trends, and to bring out the changes in our societal and cultural codes, in our values and attitudes and most importantly in our daily life. In brief, we must work on grasping the deeper sociological currents, the complexity and its architecture. It is hence necessary to look at society rather than politics, at social bonds rather than the individual ; to elaborate on how these bonds are reflected in our behaviors and preferences.

8 KONDA Barometer What do we research? What is in the reports? Themes of Social Change News Agenda Indices Political Preferences Subscribing to KONDA Barometer means supporting the existence of robust and objective reference points which all decision-makers can rely on.

9 Content of Report Themes of Social Change Focusing on society instead of the individual, we envisage, for the next period of Barometer series, researching and elaborating on the themes below. Consumer preferences: Through consumers relationship to products; company, brand, advertising, spaces of consumptions, pricing, quality, social responsibitily of institutions Family roles: The agency of family elders, women and children in daily, social, economic, consumption-based and political decisions Moral values: Perception of disgrace / sin / crime. The role of choices and reactions in relation to consumption / brands / institutions Rights: Exercising and awareness of social, economic, political rights Social Networks: Definitions of friend, other and enemy Economics and Ideology: The ideologies of society vis-a-vis economics; clusters, poles and differentiations based on these ideologies. Perceptions of business people, companies, stockholders and wealthy people Relationship with space: Relation with one s space (home, neighborhood, town/city), expectations, indispensible needs, ideals, dreams Themes taken up in the first series of Barometer series Perception of law and justice National pride and nationalism The Internet and social media Effects of the economic crisis Consumption of alcohol and tobacco View on conglomerates Veiling It is necessary to look at society rather than politics, at social bonds rather than the individual and elaborate on how these bonds are reflected in our behaviors and preferences.

10 KONDA Barometer Content of Report News Agenda To determine the public s approach to daily events, questions are asked each month about the news agenda items which are heavily discussed by the media and the public. The findings reveal how the people view the discussions, how interested they are, how they are affected in their daily lives and most importantly, to what extent the assumptions voiced in the media are true. News agenda items in the first period of Barometer series Ergenekon legal case (03/10) Tekel Workers (03/10) The Cyprus issue (05/10) Changes in the Constitution (04/10) Conflict between government and judiciary (03, 04/10) Change in CHP party (06, 07/10) Referendum (08, 09/10) Views on military service (12/10) Student protests (01/11) Alcohol regulations (02/11) Allegations of cheating in university exams (05/11)

11 Content of Report Indices As one method of monitoring social change, we have been asking questions about certain subject repeatedly at regular intervals. Until now, the two indices Life Satisfaction and Polarization have been formed and repeated every four months. While some questions will be asked annually to form annual indices, some will be asked every four months to form triannual indices. These indices monitor change over time. TRIANNUAL INDICES Life Satisfaction (Featured in March 10, June 10 and October 10 reports) Polarization (Featured in April 10, June 10 and November 10 reports) ANNUAL AND SEMI-ANNUAL INDICES View on European Union membership Internet access and social media Alcohol and tobacco consumption Role of women in society Perception of welfare

12 KONDA Barometer Political barometer Hailed for its survey results which hit the target at election times, KONDA will continue to track voters preferences in a regular and standardized manner.

13 Content of Report Political Preferences As part of the Barometer surveys, the questions below about political choices are asked to the survey participants, enabling the monitoring of changes in trends. Questions on political preference Vote choice: If elections were held today, which party or leader would you vote for? Electoral behavior Party never to vote for Trust for parties Evaluation of political figures Evaluation of political climate In the upcoming 4 years, Turkey awaits three elections and one probable referendum. Therefore, political discourse will continue to be at the heart of daily life and social dynamics. Society will be shaped by political preferences and politics will redirect itself by understanding society. During this process, KONDA Barometer will continue to constantly measure the permeability between politics and society.

14 KONDA Barometer Content of Report Client-Specific Issues All clients who are subscribed to KONDA Barometer have the opportunity to add up to three questions to one of the surveys on a specific area of interest they want researched. Once the subject has been determined, the content and text of the questions will be prepared by KONDA and submitted to the client for review and final approval. The results, answers and analysis of these questions will be presented only to that client and will in no circumstance be shared with third parties. Clients own survey questions

15 Reports Monthly Reports One distinguishing aspect of the KONDA Barometer is that its reports do not consist merely of numerical data but rather reflect KONDA s 25 years of experience with thorough data analyses. The fieldwork for each month s survey takes place on the first weekend of the month and the reports are submitted to subscribed clients by the end of the month. Each report includes the findings of the that month s survey, comparisons with previous reporting periods and with other institutions data, commentary on and analysis of this information. Content of Monthly Report Executive Summary Theme on Social Change News Agenda Items Triannual / Annual Indices Political Preferences Description of Survey Frequency Tables Interim reports During the annual Barometer periods, subscribers are sent Interim reports. The dynamic structure and the speed of events might prevent a clear view on the general state of affairs. KONDA Barometer Interim Reports provide an overview of social trends. Interim reports, Aim to evaluate monthly findings, both over time through comparisons, and in sync with the political and social agenda of the country; Provide clues for turning survey findings into concrete strategic steps; And include comments and evaluations by Tarhan Erdem.

16 KONDA Barometer Barometre Calendar The KONDA Barometre survey series project will keep going as long as the social and political dynamism in Turkey continues. The goal is to generate sustained and standardized data on society year after year. However the series is renewed every year in terms of method and content. The monthly field surveys are skipped only one month a year. Therefore the KONDA Barometer comprises of 11 surveys per year. The first period of the Barometer series began in March of 2010 and one survey was conducted each month for 16 months until the June 2011 general parliamentary elections. Pricing The monthly price for the service outlined in this dossier is 4,000 (four thousand) Turkish Liras + VAT. The agreement is yearly and includes 11 surveys. Services included in the price: 11 Monthly Reports 3 Interim Reports 1 Client-Specific Issue Report 3 questions included in one survey

17 Field Organization Having interviewed over 200 thousand people in 25 years, KONDA Research and Consultancy takes pride in an unparalleled know-how in field organization. Sampling The secret formula for successful surveys, the sampling, is specially calculated so as to accurately represent the whole of Turkey. The electoral registers and results of 2011 General Parliamentary elections lie at the heart of sampling calculations. Firstly the the regional information and election results of the 46 thousand 797 neighborhood and villages (the smallest administrative units) are stratified. The locations where interviews will be conducted are selected randomly according to the population size of the strata. As a result, a sample of 2400 to 3600 subjects is drawn, representing the opinion of the general public. Last but not least, it is the sampling formula of KONDA and the customized KONDA Survey computer software which implements this formula that enables the most accurate calculation and sampling. Full adherence to sample

18 KONDA Barometer Field Organization A successful survey is made possible not only by sampling calculations but also by implementing that sample in the fieldwork just as meticulously Full adherence to sample As any compromise at the fieldwork stage threatens the integrity of the sample, interviewers are sent to every location the sample points to, regardless of cost. Interviews conducted only face-to-face in households In KONDA surveys, interviews with survey participants are only conducted in households face-toface. Also, participants are never asked for any personally identifying information. Due to widespread polarization in the country, we believe that it is absolutely essential to conduct FACE-TO-FACE interviews with each survey participant in order to elicit honest and candid answers. We believe that telephone-based surveys are highly unlikely to collect candid and reliable data on sensitive issues such as ethnic identity, religious denomination or even political preference. Regardless of the scope, all fieldwork of KONDA surveys are completed over a single weekend. In each neighborhood or village, interviewers adhere to strict gender and age quotas and interview a total of 12 or 18 subjects. At the fieldwork stage, field interviewers report to team leaders, who in turn report to regional managers. Regional managers and inspectors report directly to the field coordinator. KONDA does not outsource fieldwork to field research companies. Control Mechanisms At least 40 percent of field interviewers are inspected through methods such as unannounced visits to the interviewer on the job, phone calls from the headquarters, re-visits by inspectors to households interviewed and computer-aided scans for logical flaws in the questionnaire forms. If an interviewer fails any of the controls, data she has collected is erased from the dataset.

19 KONDA Barometer Field-Work Process

20 Address: Yıldız Posta Cad. 6/18 Gayrettepe Beşiktaş Istanbul/ TURKEY Telephone: (212) svn: e