CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL STRATEGIC STUDIES. Annual Report

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1 CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL STRATEGIC STUDIES Annual Report 2015

3 CONTENTS EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR'S MESSAGE 03 SEMINAR ON FUTURE SECURITY OUTLOOK OF SOUTH ASIA: TRENDS AND CHALLENGES. MARCH 18, CISS SEMINAR ON PAKISTAN AND CERN : COLLABORATION IN ADVANCE SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH. 14 MAY, CISS DEPO SEMINAR ON PUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP IN DEFENCE PRODUCTION AND EXPORT: CHALLENGES AND WAY FORWARD. DECEMBER 2 AND 3, ROUNDTABLES ROUND TABLE WITH MR. CHRISTOPHER CLARY ON FUTURE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN SOUTH ASIA. 26 MAY, CISS IN HOUSE ROUNDTABLE WITH ANDREY SHABALIN. 10 JUNE, ROUND TABLE WITH ARGENTINEAN AMBASSADOR ON THE ISSUE OF MALVINAS ISLANDS. 31 AUGUST, ROUND TABLE WITH SPANISH AMBASSADOR TO PAKISTAN ON GLOBAL SECURITY OUTLOOK. 18 NOVEMBER, ROUND TABLE WITH SWITZERLAND DEFENCE ATTACHÉ ON REGIONAL SECURITY IN SOUTH ASIA. 23 NOVEMBER, ROUND TABLE WITH DR. PETER LAVOY AND MS. LAUREL MILLER ON PAK AFGHANISTAN RELATIONS AND THE RECONCILIATION PROCESS. 10 NOVEMBER, WORKSHOPS CISS IISS FOURTH WORKSHOP ON, DEFENCE, DETERRENCE & STABILITY IN SOUTH ASIA. 29 OCTOBER, CISS CITS JOINT WORKSHOP ON HIGH VALUE ADDED TRADE DEVELOPMENT IN PAKISTAN CHEMICAL INDUSTRY, BANGKOK THAILAND DEC

4 EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR ENGAGEMENTS 2015 EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR CISS INTERNATIONAL ENGAGEMENTS IN THE YEAR RESEARCHERS ACTIVITIES ABROAD CISS RESEARCHERS ACTIVITIES ABROAD PUBLICATIONS CISS PUBLICATIONS 33

EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR'S MESSAGE In 2015, CISS held a wide range of activities; conferences, workshops, round table discussions, research and publications.

5 EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR'S MESSAGE In 2015, CISS held a wide range of activities; conferences, workshops, round table discussions, research and publications. An eventful year for CISS, during 2015 we continued the partnership ventures with the International Institute of Strategic Studies, London, and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, we also organized events with our local af iliate organizations. Besides, our researchers participated and contributed in a number of forums abroad on international level. Five years in a row, CISS has been striving to contribute its best to creative and analytical national discourse every year. In the month of March CISS held a Seminar on Future Security Outlook of South Asia which aimed to highlight the emerging trends and potential challenges with regard to regional security. Many prominent policy-makers, academicians and representatives of the think-tank community in Islamabad participated. A second seminar was held on Pakistan and CERN: Collaboration in Advance Scienti ic Research in May. It aimed to explore the possibilities of cooperation in scienti ic and technical ields with advanced countries. The conference examined Pakistan's contribution to the intellectual scienti ic research and the future prospects and potentials. CISS organized a round table conference with Mr. Christopher Clary on Future of Nuclear Weapons in South Asia on May 26th, Christopher Clary is an expert of south Asian region with respect to the nuclear weapons and south Asian politics. His work includes extensive studies examining the 1999 Kargil con lict and the India-Pakistan military standoff. CISS held an In-House Roundtable with Andrey Shabalin on June 10th, Mr. Shabalin is political Counsellor at the Russian Embassy to Pakistan. He discussed the Russian Perspective on International Security and the role of Russia in the current security situation. In August, CISS also held a round table discussion with the Ambassador of Argentina, H.E. Mr. Rodolfo Martin Saravia on the Issue of Malvinas Islands Dispute and how it effects the Argentinean policy towards the United Kingdom. CISS held the fourth 'track 1.5' IISS nuclear workshop in October. It was a joint venture with The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) London on the topic 'Defence, Deterrence and Stability in South Asia. The keynote address was delivered by Pakistan's Foreign Secretary Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry. Discussion sessions covered topics including Pakistan India relations, deterrence and doctrines, and nuclear 'normalization'.

6 An in-house round table was held to discuss Pak-Afghanistan Relations and the Reconciliation Process in November. President Barrack Obama's Adviser Dr. Peter Lavoy and acting Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan Ms. Laurel Miller were the speakers. Both Dr. Peter Lavoy and Ms. Laurel Miller have deep expertise in the politics, society and security of Asia -- especially India, Pakistan and Afghanistan. It was a fruitful discussion in the session. It must be noted that CISS was the only Think Tank in Islamabad where these two senior US of icial held these sessions. In November, another round table was held with Switzerland's Defense Attache on Regional Security in South Asia. A meaningful discussion resulted in better understanding of how Switzerland perceives South Asian security outlook and what drives the policies of the country towards Pakistan. Keeping with its practice of inviting resident ambassadors in Islamabad, CISS organized a round table with the Spanish Ambassador to Pakistan to discuss the global security outlook. The research activities of CISS are getting better day by day. Our Publication CISS Insight continues to provide in-depth analyses of strategic issues confronting Pakistan and the region. Moreover, it also bring out an online Articles Brief. During 2015, CISS also worked on a book project which was due to publish in the New Year. I am proud to share the achievements of the year 2015, which is the result of the team work here at CISS. The dedicated team of researchers and administrative staff kept on to help us achieve the best. The results of our efforts here at CISS are the result of motivation to produce purposeful and meaningful research output. We hope to set a trend of research based analysis which is helpful for both Academia and Policy-making.

7 SEMINAR

9 SEMINAR ON FUTURE SECURITY OUTLOOK OF SOUTH ASIA: TRENDS AND CHALLENGES. MARCH 18, 2015 An in-house round table was held to discuss Pak-Afghanistan Relations and the Reconciliation Process in November. President Barrack Obama's Adviser Dr. Peter Lavoy and acting Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan Ms. Laurel Miller were the speakers. Both Dr. Peter Lavoy and Ms. Laurel Miller have deep expertise in the politics, society and security of Asia -- especially India, Pakistan and Afghanistan. It was a fruitful discussion in the session. It must be noted that CISS was the only Think Tank in Islamabad where these two senior US of icial held these sessions. CISS-KAS Seminar as joint venture titledfuture Security Outlook of South Asia: Trends and Challenges was held in March 18, The seminar was organized by the Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS) in collaboration with German Foundation Konrad Adenauer Stiftung. The topics covered both the aspects of traditional and non-traditional security as well as issues pertinent to nuclear safety and security. Former Chairman Joint Chief of Staff Committee General Ehsan ul haq was the key note speaker at the seminar. The Seminar was also addressed by renowned American expert on nuclear safety and security issues Professor Dr. Sigfried S. Hecker from Stanford University. The Seminar was well attended by members from academia, think tanks, university students, journalists and opinion makers. Each session was followed by an interactive discussion where participants raised several remarks and questions pertaining to the presentations made by the speakers. 7

CISS SEMINAR ON PAKISTAN AND CERN: COLLABORATION IN ADVANCE SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH. 14 MAY, 2015.

10 CISS SEMINAR ON PAKISTAN AND CERN: COLLABORATION IN ADVANCE SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH. 14 MAY, A Seminar on Pakistan and CERN: Collaborations in Advanced Scienti ic Research was organized by the Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS) at the Marriott Hotel on Thursday May 14, Minister for Science and Technology Mr. Rana Tanveer Hussain was the chief guest at the Seminar while Foreign Secretary Aizaz Ahmed Chaudhry was the Keynote speaker. Other Speakers included eminent Pakistani scientists and Physicists from prestigious institutes. Ambassador Ali Sarwar Naqvi, executive director CISS, in his opening remarks welcomed the speakers and other seminar attendees. 8

11 CISS-DEPO SEMINAR ON PUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP IN DEFENCE PRODUCTION AND EXPORT: CHALLENGES AND WAY FORWARD. DECEMBER 2 AND 3, 2015 Public Private Partnership in Defence Production and Export: Challenges and Way Forward December 2 and 3, A seminar titled 'Public Private Partnership in Defence Production and Export: Challenges and Way Forward,' was organized by Defense Export Promotion Organization (DEPO) in collaboration with the Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS) on December 2 and Spread over two days the seminar was inaugurated by the President of Pakistan, Mr. Mamnoon Hussein. The seminar was attended besides the President by the Minister for Defence Production Mr. Rana Tanvir Hussain, Secretary Defence Production Lt. Gen (retd) Mohammad Owais and other senior civil and military of icers. It was also attended by ambassadors, high commissioners distinguished members of government, corporate sector, international defense technology organizations, academia, research & training institutes as well as public and private sector industries involved in defense production. On the second day of seminar, ive simultaneous break-out sessions took place, which will come out with concrete policy guidelines and set of recommendations for the government to promote publicprivate cooperation in defence industry. Among the speakers a prominent industrialist from Turkey Mr. Ismail Demi also participated and spoke about the Turkish model of Public Private Partnership in Defence Production. 9

The two-day seminar covered a wide set of themes relevant to public-private partnership in defence production and speakers addressed each of the given themes, share their innovative and valuable

12 The two-day seminar covered a wide set of themes relevant to public-private partnership in defence production and speakers addressed each of the given themes, share their innovative and valuable ideas and came up with concrete policy guidelines and recommendations for the Government. A large number of people from academia, corporate sector, armed forces and government participated in this seminar. Given the evolving regional and global security outlook and the need to take initiatives to promote indigenization of defence production and increase exports in collaboration with the private sector, the seminar could not have come at a more appropriate time. The Seminar received wide coverage in the national press. 10

13 ROUND TABLES

ROUND TABLE WITH MR. CHRISTOPHER CLARY ON FUTURE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN SOUTH ASIA. 26 MAY, 2015.

15 ROUND TABLE WITH MR. CHRISTOPHER CLARY ON FUTURE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN SOUTH ASIA. 26 MAY, A Round Table was organized by the Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS) at the CISS premises Islamabad on Future of Nuclear Weapons in South Asia. Renowned American expert at RAND Corporation Mr. Christopher Clary was the speaker on the occasion. Earlier, Ambassador Ali Sarwar Naqvi, Executive Director CISS in his opening remarks welcomed Mr. Christopher Clary to the Center. Ambassador Naqvi gave a brief historical overview about the nuclearization of India and Pakistan and the imperatives that drove Pakistan towards acquiring deterrent capabilities. Ambassador Naqvi in his remarks explained the rationale for Pakistan's policy on the Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty (FMCT) at the Conference of Disarmament (CD) forum at the United Nation. 13

The main points of Mr. Clary's talk were: Deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in future Deployment of TNWs in India-Pakistan con lict scenario. India's nuclear response policy.

16 The main points of Mr. Clary's talk were: Deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in future Deployment of TNWs in India-Pakistan con lict scenario. India's nuclear response policy. Change of War planning in presence of Nuclear weapons The potential difference between ballistic and cruise missiles in conventional mode and their relevance to the South Asia. Stability/instability effect of Ballistic missiles in South Asia. Nuclear deterrence at sea and its potential implications for deterrence stability in South Asia How much of Nuclear warheads are enough for India and Pakistan Round table was attended by members of academia, think tank representatives, and policy making establishments. An interactive and thought-provoking debate session followed Mr. Clary's talk. 14

CISS IN-HOUSE ROUNDTABLE WITH ANDREY SHABALIN. 10 JUNE, 2015. A senior member of the Russian Embassy in Pakistan, Mr.

17 CISS IN-HOUSE ROUNDTABLE WITH ANDREY SHABALIN. 10 JUNE, A senior member of the Russian Embassy in Pakistan, Mr. Andrey Nikolaevich Shabalin, was invited to speak at the Center for International Strategic Studies, Islamabad on Wednesday, June 10th, 2015 to discuss Russian Perspective on International Security and Role of Pakistan. The talk was attended by government of icials, retired diplomats and members of the academia. The speaker was introduced to the participants by Ambassador Ali Sarwar Naqvi, Executive Director of the Center for International Strategic Studies. 15

ROUND TABLE WITH ARGENTINIAN AMBASSADOR ON THE ISSUE OF MALVINAS ISLANDS. 31 AUGUST, 2015.

18 ROUND TABLE WITH ARGENTINIAN AMBASSADOR ON THE ISSUE OF MALVINAS ISLANDS. 31 AUGUST, A Round Table was organized by the Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS) on The Issue of Malvinas Islands Dispute on 31st August H.E. Mr. Rodolfo Martin Saravia, Ambassador of Argentina in Pakistan was the guest speaker. Ambassador Rodolfo in his presentation gave a detailed overview of the dispute between United Kingdom and Argentina, including the legal and historical background and the current status of the dispute in the United Nations. He high-lighted the Argentinian position which calls for negotiations between the two countries under UN auspices. He said the United Kingdom should show its readiness to enter into negotiations, which it has not agreed to, at an early date. The Round Table was attended by members of academia, think tank representatives, select media and students. An interactive and stimulating question and answer session and debate on the issue discussed followed the session. 16

ROUND TABLE WITH DR. PETER LAVOY AND MS. LAUREL MILLER ON PAK-AFGHANISTAN RELATIONS AND THE RECONCILIATION PROCESS. 10 NOVEMBER, 2015.

19 ROUND TABLE WITH DR. PETER LAVOY AND MS. LAUREL MILLER ON PAK-AFGHANISTAN RELATIONS AND THE RECONCILIATION PROCESS. 10 NOVEMBER, An in-house round table was held to discuss Pak-Afghanistan Relations and the Reconciliation Process. Dr. Peter Lavoy who is Senior Director for South Asian Affairs at the National Security Council and Ms. Laurel Miller who serves as US Acting Special Representative for Pakistan and Afghanistan,were the speakers. Both Dr. Peter Lavoy and Ms. Laurel Miller have deep expertise in the politics, society and security of Asia -- especially India, Pakistan and Afghanistan. It was and interactive and stimulating discussion followed by intrigued questions by the participants. Dr Lavoy classi ied that US President has not made any speci ic proposals regarding Pakistan's inclusion in The Nuclear Suppliers' Group (NSG). The Summit meeting with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif earlier held in Washington in October. Ms. Laurel outlined US policy regarding Afghanistan and its desire to see a peace process put in place for reconciliation between Afghan Government and Afghan Taliban. 17

20 ROUND TABLE WITH SWITZERLAND DEFENCE ATTACHÉ ON REGIONAL SECURITY IN SOUTH ASIA. 23 NOVEMBER, 2015 An in-house round table with CISS team was held with Switzerland Defence Attache where he discussed situation in Afghanistan and regional security in South Asia. 18

21 ROUND TABLE WITH SPANISH AMBASSADOR TO PAKISTAN ON GLOBAL SECURITY OUTLOOK. 18 NOVEMBER, 2015 An in-house round table with CISS team was held with Spanish ambassador to discuss situation in Europe and Pak-Spain Relations. 19

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23 WORKSHOPS

CISS-IISS FOURTH WORKSHOP ON, DEFENCE, DETERRENCE & STABILITY IN SOUTH ASIA. 29 October, 2015.

25 CISS-IISS FOURTH WORKSHOP ON, DEFENCE, DETERRENCE & STABILITY IN SOUTH ASIA. 29 October, An international workshop on "Defence, Deterrence & Stability in South Asia" was held in Islamabad on October 29, The workshop was jointly organized by Centre for International Strategic Studies (CISS) and The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), London. Participants deliberated on the on-going tensions with India, nuclear doctrines and deterrence in Southern Asia, and Pakistan's integration into the nuclear order. It was attended by members of the policy-making institutions, academia, and representatives of think-tanks and a delegation of IISS. Foreign Secretary Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry was the keynote speaker at the workshop. Addressing the workshop, Foreign Secretary highlighted the fast evolving security environment in South Asia. He stressed that "conventional asymmetry between India and Pakistan continues 23

26 to widen as India engages in a massive arms buildup", while Pakistan's policy is being guided by the principles of restraint and responsibility. He said that strategic stability in the region is being undermined through "discriminatory nuclear cooperation agreements and waivers from long-held non-proliferation principles" to favour India. Pakistan, therefore, has to take appropriate measures for its security. Executive Director Center for International Strategic Studies, Ambassador Ali Sarwar Naqvi, welcoming participants and IISS delegation, underscored the emerging scholarly debate on dealing with de facto nuclear weapons states and their relationship with the global nuclear nonproliferation regime. He also spoke about India-Pakistan tensions and the need to move forward. 24

CISS CITS JOINT WORKSHOP ON HIGH VALUE ADDED TRADE DEVELOPMENT IN PAKISTAN CHEMICAL INDUSTRY, BANGKOK THAILAND 16-17 DEC 2015 A two day workshop was jointly organized by the Center for International

27 CISS CITS JOINT WORKSHOP ON HIGH VALUE ADDED TRADE DEVELOPMENT IN PAKISTAN CHEMICAL INDUSTRY, BANGKOK THAILAND DEC 2015 A two day workshop was jointly organized by the Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS) Islamabad and Center for International Trade and Security (CITS), University of Georgia at Bangkok Thailand on December, The Workshop was titled CISS CITS Joint Workshop on High Value Added Trade Development in Pakistan Chemical Industry. The Workshop assembled participants from Pakistani and Thai chemical industries, government regulators and presenters from Center for International Trade and Security (CITS) and Sandia National Laboratories. The two day workshop covered topics like International Chemical Management, Chemical Threats, Chemical Safety Management, Country Perspective of Managing private sector Chemical Industries, International Compliance program, End User Analysis, The Role of Academia in Chemical Management, Best practices of for Chemical Industry and Security Culture. Three speakers each from amongst the Pakistani and Thai participants presented their Brief Workshop Report respective viewpoints regarding the management of private chemical industries and government approach towards chemical management. 25

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29 EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR CISS INTERNATIONAL ENGAGEMENTS IN THE YEAR 2015

30 Executive Director CISS International Engagements in the Year 2015 Ambassador Ali Sarwar Naqvi attended a three day table top exercise titled Strategic Stability and Con lict management The exercise was organized by Center on Contemporary Con lict at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) and the Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia in February Ambassador Ali Sarwar Naqvi, Executive Director CISS was an invited participant in the 14th Asia Security Summit, popularly known as the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue held in Singapore on May 29-31, It is the most important regular gathering of defence professionals in the region and has become a vital annual ixture in the diaries of Asia-Paci ic defence ministers and their civilian and military chiefs of staff. Ambassador Ali Sarwar Naqvi attended the IISS South Asia security Conference organized by the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) in Muscat, Oman in October Ambassador Ali Sarwar Naqvi was a participant in the US-Pakistan Dialogue Nuclear working group established by Stanford University. The Event was organized in Vienna, Austria in December

31 CISS Researchers Activities Abroad 2015

32 CISS Researchers Activities Abroad 2015 Senior Research Fellow CISS Dr. Naeem Salik attended a three day table top exercise titled Strategic Stability and Con lict management The exercise was organized by Center on Contemporary Con lict at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) and the Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia in February Dr. Naeem Salik attended the bi annual Carnegie Nuclear Policy Conference in Washington DC in March Dr. Naeem Salik attended the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) meeting of experts in end of April 2015 in Washington DC Dr. Naeem Salik attended two Ottowa Dialogue one in April 2016 and the other in October Dr. Naeem Salik was a participant in the US-Pakistan Dialogue Nuclear working group established by Stanford University. The Event was organized in Vienna, Austria in December 2015 Huma Rehman CISS Research Of icer participated in Summer Intensive Course on Nuclear Safeguards Policy held in Monterey, California on 1-5 June, Mr. Faisal Mohammad attended the 'Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference, 2015' by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, DC, March, Mr. Faisal Mohammad attended '2015 NPT Review Conference', and irst week of general debate at United Nations Headquarters, New York, May, Mr. Faisal Mohammad completed the Capstone Workshop on Nonproliferation Analysis, Safety and Security by Cooperative Monitoring Center at Sandia National Labs, Albuquerque, New Mexico, May, Mr. Majid Mahmood attended policy workshop on Perspectives on the Evolving Nuclear Order, in June 2015, in Oslo, Norway. The policy workshop was jointly organized by Carnegie Endowment of the International Peace and the Norwegian Institute of International Relations (NUPI). Mr. Mahmood presented his views on two most pressing challenges to the existing global nuclear order as seen as from the vantage point of Pakistan, the main priority for your country as far as the global nuclear order is concerned and actions should your country take to address these priorities? Mr. Majid Mahmood and Senior Research Fellow CISS Dr Naeem Salik attended a two day workshop was jointly organized by Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS) Islamabad and Center for International Trade and Security (CITS), University of Georgia in Bangkok Thailand on December, The Workshop was titled CISS CITS Joint Workshop on High Value Added Trade Development in Pakistan Chemical Industry. The Workshop assembled participants from Pakistan and Thailand chemical industry, government regulators and presenters from Center for International Trade and Security (CITS) and Sandia National Laboratories. 30

33 PUBLICATIONS

35 CISS Book titled Pakistan's Security Problems and Challenges in the Next Decade CISS Quarterly Journal CISS Insight four publications containing research articles and book reviews written by CISS researchers. Two CISS Article Brief volumes containing articles, analysis and op-eds by CISS team published in various news papers throughout News Paper articles by CISS researchers on issues of South Asian Security, Middle East politics and Nuclear Issues throughout 2015 in various Pakistani newspapers 33

MEDIA COVERAGE. Pakistan-Austria Roundtable Afghanistan and Regional Security 28 March 2019 NATIONAL ONLINE NEWSPAPERS

MEDIA COVERAGE. Pakistan-Austria Roundtable Afghanistan and Regional Security 28 March 2019 NATIONAL ONLINE NEWSPAPERS ISLAMABAD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE 5 th Floor, Evacuee Trust Complex, Sir Aga Khan Road, F-5/1, Islamabad, Pakistan Tel: + 92 51 9211346-49; Fax + 92 51 9211350 Email: ipripak@ipripak.org; Website: www.ipripak.org