Current Challenges in Trade Policy Making Is Economic Research Relevant? Frédéric Seppey

Transcription

1 Current Challenges in Trade Policy Making Is Economic Research Relevant? Frédéric Seppey Selected Paper prepared for presentation at the International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium s (IATRC s) 2016 Annual Meeting: Climate Change and International Agricultural Trade in the Aftermath of COP21, December 11-13, 2016, Scottsdale, AZ. Copyright 2016 by Frédéric Seppey. All rights reserved. Readers may make verbatim copies of this document for non-commercial purposes by any means, provided that this copyright notice appears on all such copies.

2 Current challenges in trade policy making is economic research relevant? Frédéric Seppey Assistant Deputy Minister and Chief Agriculture Negotiator IATRC Annual Meeting December 12, 2016

3 OVERVIEW Trade Policy Process Linking Research and Policy Non-Traditional Trade Issues Measuring Performance Summary Pages 3-7 Pages 8 Pages 9 Pages 10 Pages 11 + Trade policy process in a nutshell + Leveraging economic research and analysis + Emerging themes of trade policy + Results and delivery + Takeaways + Trade negotiation process Exploratory discussions Negotiations Parliamentary review 2

4 01. TRADE POLICY PROCESS IN A NUTSHELL THE TOOLBOX APPROACH Market Access Choice of Trade Policy Tool Consultations, Discussions, Information Gathering Implement appropriate trade policy tools Advocacy Negotiations Technical Discussions Litigation Industry Subnational governments Foreign governments and/or industry Identification of Market Access Issues Consultations Market intelligence Market strategies Intergovernmental meetings Industry advisory bodies 3

5 01. TRADE NEGOTIATION PROCESS EiF* Parliament (Review, Debate, Ratification) Political debates and Parliamentary bodies study the negotiated Agreement. Public and media voice their views and opinions. Signature of Agreement Legal Scrub and Translation of Text Negotiations Mandate from Government Exploratory Discussions Public Consultations (Canada Gazette, Other Venues) Ongoing consultations with stakeholders. Discuss issues, identify interests (e.g. market access). * EiF: Entry into Force 4

6 01. TRADE NEGOTIATIONS EXPLORATORY DISCUSSIONS STAGE Audience: EiF Parliament (review, debate, ratification) Signature of Agreement Legal Scrub and Translation of Text Negotiations Mandate from Government Exploratory Discussions Public Consultations Political leadership and staff Policymakers Potential stakeholders Research objectives: Identify interests Assess economic complementarities Estimate economic costs and benefits Score 1 st, 2 nd, and 3 rd best scenarios for potential negotiation outcomes Determine whether or not to proceed forward with negotiations Examples of research: General equilibrium models for forecasts of whole economy impacts Partial equilibrium models for forecasts of impacts on international and domestic commodity markets Forecasts of economic benefits might assume complete liberalization 5

7 01. TRADE NEGOTIATIONS NEGOTIATIONS STAGE Audience: EiF Parliament (review, debate, ratification) Signature of Agreement Legal Scrub and Translation of Text Negotiations Mandate from Government Exploratory Discussions Public Consultations Negotiating teams Foreign counterparts Interested/affected stakeholders Research objectives: Determine negotiating positions and analyse counterparts offers in terms of traditional (e.g., tariffs, TRQs, safeguards, RoOs) and non-traditional trade issues (e.g., biotechnology, IP, organics) Forecast scenarios for potential outcomes and the impacts offensive and defensive interests Examples of research: Both general and partial equilibrium models for sector-specific and firm-level forecasts of potential impacts Calculations of potential duty savings Projections for future bilateral and multilateral trade flow volumes Qualitative analysis, including knowledge of market structure for key commodities and insight into future trade 6

8 01. TRADE NEGOTIATIONS PARLIAMENTARY REVIEW STAGE Audience: EiF Parliament (review, debate, ratification) Signature of Agreement Legal Scrub and Translation of Text Negotiations Mandate from Government Exploratory Discussions Public Consultations Political leadership and staff Policymakers Industry stakeholders Academia, think tanks, and NGOs Civil society Research objectives: Use Agreement outcomes to estimate economic costs and benefits with greater precision Assess impacts on specific commodity sectors and stakeholders Communicate broadly and simply the Agreement outcomes and what they mean for Canadians Examples of research: Forecasts of economic benefits using both general and partial equilibrium models and Agreement outcomes Partial equilibrium models for forecasts of domestic commodity markets under different scenarios 7

9 02. LEVERAGING ECONOMIC RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS More collaboration between trade officials and economic researchers. Example: WTO dispute on U.S. Country Of Origin Labeling (COOL). The granularity and precision of research was demanded by policymakers and lawyers. Example: Estimation of income impacts of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on Canadian farmers. 8

10 03. EMERGING THEMES OF TRADE POLICY Agricultural trade policy now broadens beyond traditional areas of market access and domestic support, and into new topics. SPS/TBT issues asynchronous approval of agricultural biotechnology products; low level presence (LLP) for grain shipments; maximum residue limits (MRL) for pesticide use; international standards and guidelines Trade-related aspects of intellectual property rights (TRIPs) geographical indications (GIs) Linkages between trade and environment, biological diversity, and biosafety Relevant, empirically-based economic research can help policymakers better answer key upcoming questions. What are the economic impacts of these emerging issues for domestic producers and consumers? Which priorities should the Government focus on, and how should it intervene? How can our trade policies better pursue inclusive economic growth and maintain support for an open society? 9

11 04. RESULTS AND DELIVERY Results and delivery is at the core of Government of Canada s commitment to openness and transparency. It is my expectation that we will deliver real results and professional government to Canadians. To ensure that we have a strong focus on results, I will expect Cabinet committees and individual ministers to: track and report on the progress of our commitments; assess the effectiveness of our work; and align our resources with priorities, in order to get the results we want and Canadians deserve. Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food Mandate Letter, from the Prime Minister Relevant data and analytics essential to ensure: evidence-based decisions anchored in meaningful data and indicators; resources properly aligned to programs and activities; meaningful information communicated back to Canadians/Parliament. 10

12 05. TAKEAWAYS 1. Solid economic analysis essential to policymaking. 2. Active dialogue/collaboration between economists and policymakers critical to ensure value/usefulness of policy advice. 3. Relevance of economic research/statistics is not enough tailoring to specific decision-making steps is key. 11

13 CONTACT INFORMATION Thank you! 12