DATA AT WORK: NEGOTIATING CIVIL WARS

Transcription

1 DATA AT WORK: NEGOTIATING CIVIL WARS

2 Again: Summary Measures for Cross-Tabulations Lambda-b PRE, ranges from zero to unity; measures strength only Gamma Form and strength (-1 to +1); PRE, based on pairs of observations Chi-square Significance, based on deviation from null hypothesis

3 Questions and Themes Theme: Outcomes of civil wars General questions: How do civil wars end? Does it make any difference? Specific questions: Why are there negotiated settlements in some instances and not in others? Do negotiations produce different (better) outcomes than military victories?

4 Defining the Unit of Analysis What is a civil war? 1. Leaders concerned about living in same political unit with current enemies 2. Multiple sovereignty: people within area obey more than one institution each side has troops made up of local residents 3. Large-scale violence: (a) at least 1,000 battle deaths per year and (b) effective resistance

5 Characteristics of the Key Variable N civil wars ( ) = 91 Of these, 57 had been ended for at least 5 years by 1994 Of these, 14 ended by negotiation, 43 by military victory Among these 57, 11 were followed by largescale violence that was not a civil war Therefore effective N = 46

6 Selecting Levels of Measurement Dichotomous variables: Negotiation or victory? War after settlement? (yes/no) Genocide after settlement? (yes/no) Type of war: identity or political-economic Ordered nominal variable: Casualties: 1,000-10,000 deaths, 10,000 to 100,000, 1000,000 to 1 million, over one million

7 On Measuring Association This data set is fairly primitive. The number of cases is quite small, even when the entire population rather than the sample is analyzed. Many of the variables are nominal, and the reliability of some of the figures is questionable. I do not believe this data [sic] warrants the use of sophisticated statistical techniques. Instead, I simply report Pearson s chisquared, the probability that the two variables are independent of one another, and associated statistics. Even these are handicapped by the small expected values in some cells, but at least they give us some sense of the likelihood that the relationships have occurred by chance.

8 Central Hypothesis Wagner hypothesis: Negotiated settlements of civil wars are more likely to break down than settlements based on military victories; consequently, the long-term casualties of negotiated settlements are likely to be greater than those of military victory.

9 Testing the Hypothesis Among the civil wars under study, threequarters (34 of 46) were not renewed after the settlement. Such a renewal occurred in only 15% of the victories, as opposed to 50% of the negotiated settlements. Several different chi-squared measurements show this relationship to be significant at the.05 level or better.

10 Empirical Models Y = f (X) WARS = f (TERMINATION) [Table 1] CASUALTIES = f (IDENTITY) GENOCIDE = f (IDENTITY) TERMINATION = f (IDENTITY) WARS = f (IDENTITY, TERMINATION) [Table 2] GENOCIDE = f (IDENTITY, TERMINATION) [Table 3]

11 Table 1. Method of Termination and Same Wars after Settlement _Y: Wars? (%)_ X: Termination None Same N Military Victory Negotiation

12 Table 2. Issue, Termination, and More Wars after Settlement Y: Wars? (%) X: Termination None Same _N_ Z: Identity Wars: Military Negotiation Z: Political/Economic Wars: Military Negotiation

13 Table 3. Issue, Termination, and Genocide Y: Genocide? (%)_ X: Termination Yes No N Z: Identity Wars: Military Negotiation Z: Political/Economic Wars: Military Negotiation

14 Major Findings 1. Negotiated settlements of civil wars are less likely to endure than results of military victories [Table 1] 2. Identity vs. political-economic wars do not have clearly different casualty patterns 3. Identity wars are not more intense than political-economic wars 4. Identity and nonidentity wars are equally likely to end in negotiated settlements

15 Major Findings (cont.) 5. Negotiated settlements of identity wars are less stable than military victories [Table 2] 6. Military victories in identity wars may be more likely to be followed by genocide than negotiated settlements [Table 3] 7. Genocide is less likely to follow termination of nonidentity conflicts in general